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A snowHead

stevomcd, sounds good.

I would reckon the area most likely to do well out of the next band of snow on starting tomorrow night into Tuesday and Wednesday, will be north west Italy. The Milky Way and Aosta Valley. And there was some pretty good snowfall there a couple of weeks back.

France should do well too, but I would be pleasantly surprised if it amounted to 50cm over the next week. Nevertheless some snow is better than no snow. We'll see.

A snowHead

Hi papillion_rouge, yeah if we get some good freshies this week then conditions should be excellent here. At the moment, all the runs are skiing well, no serious issues with ice, rocks, dirt, etc. except on the green run.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

nozawaonsen, I broadly understand the ensembles that you so helpfully post, but how does the precipitation in mm translate to snow depth? Presumably the amount on the ensemble would be if it fell as rain, and therefore you'd get more snow depth. Is there a general rule of thumb or am I being too simplistic?

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Steve84, as a rule of thumb a mm of rain is very roughly equivalent to about a cm of snow.

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nozawaonsen, ok thanks.

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nozawaonsen,

the latest wiggles are out,what do make of them,to my untrained eye they are still changing,and now it seems a little less now on the 15th more the 16th,is it pushing it out so it fades to nothing,i was looking at 45 7 as near as to Valdisere where were going

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hi weatherheads, any chance someone could have a look to see if livigno in italy is likely to see any fresh snow over the next couple of weeks please? Thankyou!

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Here is the first band of snow arriving in France tomorrow evening on WRF... (and on into Italy adamtheyido)

And here is a projection of accumulated precipitation between now and Tuesday evening.

The detail will still shift around and of course local variation will effect how it actually turns out. But it is looking pretty good for some snow arriving into France tomorrow night!

"I've been waiting so long..." wink

Cooling towards the end of the week. Still unclear how it plays from then. Trending cooler at the moment.

Sunshine of your love

Great news noza, thank you so much for your very informative posts. Whether they've been negative or positive no reflection on you, appreciate the explanations. Will be there this time 2 weeks so hope it'll be tres bien.

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12z GFS operational continues the trend of the last few runs which would take things considerably colder for half term. 5C to 10C cooler by the end of the week. 10C to 15C colder by the middle of half term. Maybe. That has to carry the caveat that there is continuing uncertainty about how that week will look and I certainly wouldn't want to risk a guess on whether there will be any snow.

This week it continues to look likely that there will be some initial St Valentine's snow coming into the Alps late tomorrow night (France and Italy). And probably another band of snow later in the week on Wednesday and Thursday. wink

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nozawaonsen, nothing for switzerland then ?

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Murrren, Switzerland next sunday

You know it makes sense.

From that chart as I understand it - looks like the far west of Switzerland should get some. Weather predictions are very fickle - can change a lot in 24 hrs.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Chris Brookes, if you look at the map above it suggests that the snow reaches into Switzerland Monday overnight into Tuesday. Zermatt, St Moritz look like they will get some, places close to Lake Geneva and the French border. But France and Italy look like they will see more.

A snowHead

nozawaonsen, thankyou

A snowHead

nozawaonsen,
Ski Amade for 1/2 term????????

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Mitchell,

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guys, this isn't a place to ask for personal forecasts, I think nozawaonsen, puts enough effort in with his detail reviews every 6 hours, let's not start asking him for every single resort out there!!

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I second that!

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Chris Brookes, Mitchell, you can check those wigglies for yourselves by using MoodyFFS's website gps grabber. http://www.ski-finder.co.uk/grab_gfs.php?lat=46&lon=7 and alter the coordinates to those of the resort you require. Why not bookmark it?

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Chris Brookes I believe he has already made it clear, from a post a day or so ago:

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How half the weather in the Alps for half term might evolve still remains very unclear.

The interplay between three pressure systems over the next few days will have a significant impact on the potential outcome. Which could still at this stage range from dry and cold to warm and wet.

There is high pressure building over Scandinavia [top right] with a low pressure system out in the Atlantic ocean [left]. And high pressure lurking to the South. [bottom left]

Here it is on ECM 12z this evening.

As it seems to me.... As the low pressure in the Atlantic moves in it comes up against the Scandinavian high. If the Scandinavian high pressure remains strong it holds off the Atlantic for long enough to allow cold to move across the Alps from the East. If the Atlantic comes pouring across it brings milder, but wetter weather.

Ideally the Scandinavian high holds the Atlantic off long enough to bring in cold and still forces it south across and down through the Alps. This is broadly what it looks like doing this week, if the low pressure remained a bit more focussed as it moved through it would be slightly snowier. But there you are and it certainly looks like there will be some snow this week.

In the south the high pressure is trying to push up, cut off the Atlantic and let colder air in (initially) and on a number of runs it establishes itself to the extent that it eventually forces the jet back onto a more northerly track. Half term would probably be cold and dry.

Here it is in GFS 12z off in FI.

But if the Atlantic really gets going it could prevent the high pressure from building in which case half term would be milder, but wetter (so more chance of snow, but in lower areas more chance of rain).

Of course there are also options where it gets warm and dry and indeed cold and wet.

Anyway that in a rather Sunday evening type of way is how it looks to me. Time to do some cooking...

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Fascinating 18z GFS. Scandinavian High holds strong keeping the Atlantic at bay. [all the following with very low confidence, don't take it too seriously...]

Half term starts cold and dry across the Alps and gets colder, especially in the East.

In FI throws a low into the Mediterranean which would provide snow towards the end of half term.

Briefly warms up a little before getting very cold again as high starts to think about retrogressing towards Greenland...

Doubt it would happen like that, but continues the cold trend.

Nice pub run to end Sunday evening on... wink

Alps D'Huez and Les Deux Alpes

The Arlberg

You know it makes sense.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

achilles, my goodness, don't even think about him not posting. Shocked

His posts are amazingly wonderful.

A snowHead

00z GFS run is interesting. After this week a mid latitude high is ridges over Spain and the British Isle. This allows very cold air from the east to be near or over the Alps. Very dry though. The ensembles back this up with very few runs going over the seasonal average. Even more intriguingly, there's a fair amount of ensemble support for precipitation the week after as well... something to watch.

A snowHead

Did the Cham snow chant work?

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Does look like there could be some snow about in the Alps this week (and in Scotland). Very Happy

Hopefully there may be some light snow falling in parts of the French Alps as people head home from dinner this evening... (it may help if you don't finish dinner until quite late... so extra glass of champagne etc etc).

More snow coming through on Tuesday and up from the south overnight into Wednesday. Southern French Alps, Milky Way, Andermatt, look like they could do particularly well. But as ever the detail will be decided on the day.

Here is how it could look Wednesday morning (accumulated) on WRF.

Here is another WRF shot (not accumulated) showing snow moving into Switzerland, Austria and North East of Italy on Thursday morning (just to show that there hopefully could be enough to share).

Snowing this morning in Scotland and more coming through midweek.

Half term trend continues to be cold with GFS. With the control joining in now too. ECM follows the trend (though not quite as cold as GFS).

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nozawaonsen, Great news but....

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Hey Noz do you ever get to enjoy the European winters that you are so eminently forecasting?

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Boredsurfing, and free beer?

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nozawaonsen, Of course snowHead

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I beg to differ...... Cold and snowy this week. Cold and blue-bird for half term. Don't want warm slushy heavy ski afternoon IMHO Cool

RetroBod,

we need the cold first! Hopefully, freezing level back to the valley by thursday - then it can snow all it likes.

gonna pack double thermals for next week though. Toofy Grin

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http://www.meteorologic.net/meteo-france/Tignes_29270.html?date_get=3

i love this sought of optimism ,but alas i think thats all it is, yes it will snow but not that much,infact i wish i could move Valdisere 50 miles south then i think they would be right,fingers crossed i must admit its blooming exciting needing a dump

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