 Poster: A snowHead
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skinutter, yep, same as it was last week.....
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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J2R,
Well I have skied the two weeks of the school 'Easter' holidays (nearly all in Europe, in high alpine resorts) since 2004, a couple of times in Canada (but I know it dumped in Chamonix when I was out there) and there has always been some significant snow fall wherever I have been, except for one trip three years ago. The last two years have been really good then, and a few years ago I have skied some incredible powder right up until 19th April. So as historical snow depth records show that in the high alpine resorts the snow depth usually increases (as it snows), and as it usually snows in April then I reckon it might snow in April. I have also seen freezing levels at above 3000m, its been 21 degrees in the UK and in a week or two it is dumping in the alps. Maybe this will be a freak year, but I doubt it!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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JayDub, snap, in 14 years of skiing late march, early April there has only been one year without a significant dump...
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Similar here for early April trips and hoping that my good luck holds this year for the week of the 5th. Noticed that ECM is seeing it much less warm than GFS ... fingers crossed it goes with ECM
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The good news is that this evening's Chamonix meteo forecast says that outlook beyond Sunday is uncertain. So not too much point in worrying about what GFS says about the middle of next week.
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| Jonpim wrote: |
pam w is quite right.
The so-called Law of Averages is a myth.
The most famous example of people foolishly holding on to this idea was August 18, 1913, at the casino in Monte Carlo, when black came up a record twenty-six times in succession.
Gamblers poured money onto red, more and more, each time black came up.
The Casino made a fortune.
See Gambler's Fallacy |
In a game of cards after turning up 25 black cards in a row, the deck of cards now has significantly more red cards than black. If the game is played with one pack the odds of turning up a black card is 1 in 26. I don't see the foolishness.
If it was a coin toss then after 25 tosses the chances of the run continuing are still 50:50.
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| pam w wrote: |
| The good news is that this evening's Chamonix meteo forecast says that outlook beyond Sunday is uncertain. So not too much point in worrying about what GFS says about the middle of next week. |
Have they ever said anything different for 3+ days out?
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kitenski,
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK UNTIL THURSDAY APRIL 03 2014
Tuesday and Wednesday : increasing diurnal instability ‑ fairly sunny in the morning ‑ afternoon shower risk. Thursday : disturbance possibly coming in from the west - uncertain.
Forecast reliability : fairly good until Sunday ‑ poor thereafter. |
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pam w, that's my point, they always say reliability is poor 3+ days out! I have never seen anything different from them! but don't read it everyday.
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Got mates coming from Australia and really wanted them to see the mountains in Chamonix and late next week looking very poor  hopefully it will change !!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Quote: |
I have never seen anything different from them!
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They sometimes say it is very poor.  And as we know from assiduous reading of the weather thread, reliability more than 3 days out is very frequently poor in changeable/unstable conditions (as compared to the prolonged HP before Christmas, for example). But it's easy to forget that when faced with GFS models stretching way into the future showing either socking great dumps of snow or high temperatures and torrential rain. If we cared for our mental health we probably wouldn't look at them (and we definitely wouldn't pay for 9 days of computerised guesswork.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Rowlski, not sure about that. ECM looks pretty mild to me?
Temperature anomaly for 06 April.
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Hmmm ... yes that is looking rather warm too, thought GFS had more yellow showing for 4/5th April in the temp charts. Not a lot in it now
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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6z arlberg goes for colder temps and perhaps some precipitation for next weekend ..... Still a long way out....
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Quote: |
March was one of the warmest on record.
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It was warm in France too, and that difference over most years is noticeable. People were saying, a couple of weeks ago, when snow was getting spring like "but that's what you expect in March" but it wasn't. It was much more like you expect in April. Because we had a nice cold couple of days and up to half a metre of new snow last weekend the situation was saved temporarily and this last week the pistes have been in superb condition - best of the season except at the lowest altitude. But where that snow fell on warm ground it has disappeared very rapidly and we are now going into "proper" April weather. Fingers crossed for another cold spell coinciding with some precipitation, like last weekend.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Looking back at winter in France you can see it was milder and wetter than normal.
http://www.meteofrance.fr/climat-passe-et-futur/bilans-climatiques/bilan-2014/bilan-climatique-de-l-hiver-2013-2014
It doesn't show up on the maps very well but you can see a slight deficit in precipitation for the northern Alps and a strong surplus in the southern Alps.
The mild and wet weather in the Pyrenees has tended to see quite an altitude contrast so above average snow at high altitude much below at low altitude.
It's a pattern that's been repeated in the UK where there has been very large amounts of snow higher up (in the Scottish mountains) and much less snow than normal for winter lower down.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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nozawaonsen, Good.  My main concern over that period is rain - if we get no precipitation the pistes will be just fine for weeks, especially if it's not too warm, but skiing in the rain is the pits, especially with small children and it looks like precipitation is on the cards.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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thats the truth  praying for the snow-line to drop to 1600m, then I will be a happy bunny. Now if only the rental agency will tell me if the apartment i want is free LOL
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Still a long way to go, will be watching all week, off to Stuben a week today.
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skinutter, where are you looking?
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Expecting to stay in the chalet d'Emeraude if Alpimo reply 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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skinutter, I think that's available through Peak Retreats as well - might get a swifter reply from them. No idea how prices compare though.
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Temperatures in the near term look mild and although the confidence starts to reduce after 06 April at present the trend is continuing milder than average.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Aye, it'll be mild in them there hills for a week or so but there's loads of snow up there so the best 6 weeks of the lift-served season are still to come. Plus. it's quarter past eight, and it's still not dark yet. 
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i'm adopting an open mind tonight...confidence on anything past mid week looks poor, lets see what turns up
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You know it makes sense.
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Mild but wet in France? Yep, I'd agree with that. It's been a pretty good snow with plenty of freshies, but the snow-line has been high. Sainte Foy at 1550m has had a good season, but anywhere lower has been suffering at times.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Looks warm through to at least 08 April at present. Looks warm after that to be honest just with less confidence.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Long range forecasts (unreliable I know) suggest heatwave for Europe April 10th onwards - considering cancelling the easter trip to Ischgl. Will obviously give it more time and probably be fooled to going along anyway - but not good at this moment whichever way you look at it! 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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the best that can be said is that there's not much precipitation in the forecast.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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AthersT, not sure I'd cancel your holiday at this stage?? Ischgl is mostly above 2000m and north facing.
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Looks like the coming few days are cooler than were being forecasted by a few degrees...at least to me
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| AthersT, not sure I'd cancel your holiday at this stage?? Ischgl is mostly above 2000m and north facing. |
No I won't end up cancelling - the optimist in me will win out but early indications from Wetterzentrale suggest high 20's daytime temps mid April which is decidedly worrying! Fingers crossed they are wrong!
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ah i buckled this morning and booked a barrrrrrgain Not sure if i care if it rains or snows now lol Friday 4am am ready to hit the road Officially excited of Hampshire!
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skinutter, great! I did some XC skiing this morning and my car thermometer, on the way back at 1230, read 7.5 degrees at 1600m - it does tend to underead a degree of two but it wasn't mega hot. I skied in lightweight walking trousers and a lightweight very breathable soft shell and was very comfortable despite the exertion.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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yep, weather looks to be fundamentally a few degrees under the values on the 'wigglies' as i read them this time last week and hinting at a breadown at some point next week again but (very) low confidence. Non the less, precipitation of any significance is looking unlikely so should be fine, even if a little slushy.
We'll just be happy to be in the mountains and have a bit of snow to play on!
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I'll be leaving the thermal legs at home next week then and might pack more t-shirts than long sleeves. Just hope we get sun rather than rain.
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