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The all new 11/12 Weather Outlook thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
sad snowman Toofy Grin
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
This is such a quality thread, i have taken great delight in reading this during my working day, even more so as i am off to Verbier on sunday Hooha Very Happy Thanks to you all for keeping my so informed Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I'm sure the wigglies aren't as difficult or complicated as people seem to find them.
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Pedantica wrote:
Red Leon, Shocked


The chart is still suggesting a cold snap but it's much less dramatic than it was when I posted the link - fortunately. When I posted, the thick blue line (technical term) went down to -20 on about Feb 1st and stayed there for the remainider of the forecast period. It now looks like it'll be a balmy -10 instead Shocked
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Slight apology as to be honest I'm a little distracted at the moment by being on holiday.

Anyway the broad pattern continues. On the latest output snow this Saturday looks a little more focussed to the western Alps, but time for that to chop and change. And further snow in the southern Alps at the end of the month.

Beyond next week it continues to look potentially very cold and relatively snowy.

(slightly baffled by the comment about the Met Office sitting on the fence? That's the whole point. It's very uncertain).
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Quote:

And further snow in the southern Alps at the end of the month.





OHHHH YEAH!!!

Bring on the white fluffy stuff!!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
See the wiggles broken again, sending me cold turkey. However, can someone remind me what altitude (as a general rule) 850hpa represents?
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Very roughly 1500m asl.
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Thanks Little Angel
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Not by any means the be all and end all, but the 12z GFS has upped snowfall in the French Alps and Italian border quite a bit for Saturday. And dropped temperatures aggressively, particularly in the eastern Alps from early February.
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nozawaonsen, about 20 cms over two days or more..........
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Local forecasts here are suggesting minimum temperatures in Southern Germany and the Tirol next week in the -20's.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
downhillalltheway wrote:
Local forecasts here are suggesting minimum temperatures in Southern Germany and the Tirol next week in the -20's.

Brass monkeys should not go off piste without a metal detector
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Continues to look like most of the snow over the weekend will be in the west of the Alps. next week cold and dry, before becoming very cold and dry.

(UK currently looks too far west to get real cold).
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Well I can see a dusting of snow on the hills to the East of Manchester from my office window. It was fairly cool this morning and has been p!ssing it down here.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
rob@rar wrote:
kitenski wrote:
What kind of dates are looking snowy for the UK?? Need a trip to the Pennines Smile
28 Jan - 8 Feb. Will be the best snow the Pennines have ever seen.


This could be very prophetic Rob, it's currently snowing here in Leeds and some ok coverage already on the Pennine webcams....
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
By cold in the UK I was meaning deep countrywide cold with potential for widespread snow in about a week or two. Not whether it might be a bit snowy on the hills and chilly today.

This evening that looks like a stronger possibility than this morning...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Across in the lake District it dumped it down all day today dropping another 4 inches on what was already a reasonable cover, though still a bit thin at the top. Seven of us skiied heavy powder in poor viz with some huge falls !

Tomorrow could be awesome !
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nozawaonsen wrote:
By cold in the UK I was meaning deep countrywide cold with potential for widespread snow in about a week or two. Not whether it might be a bit snowy on the hills and chilly today.


And what? I could still see snow from my office and it was still chilly today. Not sure how my comment on current conditions has anything to do with your forecast?
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Increasingly cold charts coming up across Europe from the middle to end of next week.

Here's next Friday morning on the 18z GFS operational.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7924/gfs-2012012718-1-156_eyu3.png

Very cold across the Alps and indeed the UK.
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Is this a "very cold".........and dry or could there be snow in them there hills?
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nozawaonsen, whats the confidence like on these current forecasts for very cold?
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Russeh, something inbetween very and not very confident.
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Smokin Joe wrote:
Russeh, something inbetween very and not very confident.


Laughing so your guess is as good as mine then
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RetroBod, currently very cold and dry in much of the Alps from mid week is looking most likely (could there be snow in the hills? yes there could, but in general it is more likely to be dry). That said there is however an increasing possibility of some snow in the southern Alps in a week or so.

GFS 18z +192 (you can clearly see the high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure to the south of the Alps).

Confidence in a period of very cold weather in the Alps is high (it has been shown in run after run across models) in the UK is currently slightly less (although most of the last few runs have shown cold it has gone back and firth over the last few days) so despite current modelling it could still easily shift, with deep cold weather later next week remaining further east, but as the output continues to build consistency so will confidence.
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10 to 20cm of snow looks likely for the western Alps today. A similar band of snow pushing through next Tuesday.

After that temperatures look set to fall sharply and the first week of February looks very cold and by and large dry. There are some suggestions that this pattern could shift a little from 07 February.

This morning's output continues to suggest the UK may also see some deep cold from the middle of next week.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
bobmcstuff wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
By cold in the UK I was meaning deep countrywide cold with potential for widespread snow in about a week or two. Not whether it might be a bit snowy on the hills and chilly today.


And what? I could still see snow from my office and it was still chilly today. Not sure how my comment on current conditions has anything to do with your forecast?


I think its clear to the other 1 million posters that nozawaonsen was talking about next week. The phrases that gave this away were in his post.

nozawaonsen wrote:
Continues to look like most of the snow over the weekend will be in the west of the Alps. next week cold and dry, before becoming very cold and dry.

(UK currently looks too far west to get real cold).



Doesnt really suggest he was talking about what was happening at that moment does it ?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen wrote:
10 to 20cm of snow looks likely for the western Alps today. A similar band of snow pushing through next Tuesday.

After that temperatures look set to fall sharply and the first week of February looks very cold and by and large dry. There are some suggestions that this pattern could shift a little from 07 February.

This morning's output continues to suggest the UK may also see some deep cold from the middle of next week.


The first snow in almost 3 weeks fell yesterday in the Central Pyrenees, Peyragudes has reported 10cm this morning which though not much was very much needed. All of the models are showing very cold weather over the next 7 or so days, with temperatures including wind chill being almost -30 at the top of the station. I think this is over stated personally however either way it is going to be cold.

More snow tomorrow and early into next week then clear blue skies and very very cold indeed. All of this makes for a happy man Very Happy Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Sat in the holiday cottage near Barmouth Wales. Looking up at Cader Idris there is a dusting of snow on the summit and no wind, not a cloud in the sky. Shame I've twinged my knee and can't get up there, would be some amazing views today!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Smokin Joe wrote:
bobmcstuff wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
By cold in the UK I was meaning deep countrywide cold with potential for widespread snow in about a week or two. Not whether it might be a bit snowy on the hills and chilly today.


And what? I could still see snow from my office and it was still chilly today. Not sure how my comment on current conditions has anything to do with your forecast?


I think its clear to the other 1 million posters that nozawaonsen was talking about next week. The phrases that gave this away were in his post.

nozawaonsen wrote:
Continues to look like most of the snow over the weekend will be in the west of the Alps. next week cold and dry, before becoming very cold and dry.

(UK currently looks too far west to get real cold).



Doesnt really suggest he was talking about what was happening at that moment does it ?


Yes I knew that? So what? It was also pretty obvious to me that he was giving a forecast given that's what he does on here...

All I did was comment that I could see snow from my window. Fairly unrelated.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Hmmm.

Dry and cold looks like it will be upon us soon enough!

(and the outlook for the UK from the middle of next week continues to look very cold too).
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Meteo France and everyone else forecast snow today, but in fact after a couple of inches overnight there's been none all day till just now - we even had a couple of hours quite sunny this morning, though the mist soon rolled in and killed the visibility. Very thin cloud - didn't look remotely like snowing till around 5 pm.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
whats he on
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or not, maybe
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jeremyd,

Probably alcohol.... can induce truculence

Hope he recovers soon
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Anyone reading the runes of FI?
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The next few days look cold...

And by mid week could be a whole lot colder again.



The pattern change for the end of January, start of February is looking pretty set now. And looks like producing cold temperatures and snow on the southern side of the Alps (particularly for example the Alpes Maritimes like Isola 2000 and parts of Italy like Limone Piemonte both of which have been suffering so far this season) and Pyrenees.

How prolonged and deep the cold spell will be is uncertain, but GFS seems to hint at a shift around 07 February.
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nozawaonsen, and will that shift bring snow?
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Hells Bells, for where?
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Might be worth reminding people that in some of the overnight temperatures being forecast diesel fuel will be in danger of waxing. If there's a covered parking option - even if expensive - might be worth considering.
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