 Poster: A snowHead
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@nozawaonsen, if we are lucky, I think we might see even more next week in the northern Alps. Should be good for the rest of the season.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@kitenski, there's also a couple of stubby white vertical bars. Could that be cms per hour?
It's rather confusing, and I'm not sure it's useful except for the cloud cover bit...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Exterior ranges of the French Northern Alps finished the storm with 20-30cm of fresh snow, maybe a bit deeper in the Beaufortain. Interior ranges, not so much but winds to 217km/h in Val d'Isere and a lot of drifting causing issues.
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| Pasigal wrote: |
@kitenski, there's also a couple of stubby white vertical bars. Could that be cms per hour?
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yes I think so, so very light snow today, as the stubby white bars are all under the 1cm scale on the RHS
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| altaski8 wrote: |
I think the ECMWF runs at 9km square horizontal resolution and the GFS at 13km. And both also have fairly dense vertical grid spacing. That's fine enough to simulate most of the effects of major terrain features. Several very high resolution models operate at much finer resolutions over shorter durations. These can show the effects of individual mountain peaks, although the output tends to be too extreme.
There are several obstacles to accurate snow forecasting. The first is that cumulative precipitation at the surface is the least accurate modeled meteorological parameter. It is extremely difficult to simulate exactly how much precipitation will reach the ground, precisely when, and precisely where. The tiniest model error can shift an intense snow band by 20km or 1 hour. That's nothing for a model with a global domain, but could be significant for an individual ski resort. The next problem is that the formation of a snow crystal is a complex process that directly affects accumulation. Wind, humidity, and surface temperature also affect accumulation efficiency. Even if you know exactly how much precipitation will fall, it's still difficult to estimate snow accumulation. The snow to liquid ratio commonly varies from 5:1 to 40:1 in the mountains at our latitude, depending on many of the factors listed.
Even if a weather forecaster basically nails a forecast, they still might be way off in terms of snow accumulation. And unfortunately that's what people remember most. It's also why forecasted snow amounts tends to have very wide ranges. |
Great post, thank you.
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| Woosh wrote: |
| EC outlook; several storms from north from 9/10th to 13 of February. The high and dry that might persist for some time. Might be quite dry after the 13 for the rest of February. |
Phew, I arrive on the 13th (unlucky for some, no wonder the flights were cheap!), so looking forward to some long sunny days and lunches on the terrace in Valle d'Aosta.
| munich_irish wrote: |
latest ECM outlook seems to suggest a cold front hitting the alps around lunchtime on the 11th. Suggests back to high pressure after that. I guess the front could end up tracking further north if the airflow is more westerly than north westerly, which would mean less snow. Dont think this will bring much, if any, snow to Monterosa.
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Looks like I need to focus on NW sector of valley (La Thuile, Courmayeur) based on that map. Maybe Cervinia/Zermatt, perhaps leave the Monterosa for another time.
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| jirac18 wrote: |
| @nozawaonsen, pardon my ignorance but what do you (or is generally) defined as Northern Alps? Would that include areas such as Grand Massif or are you talking further across as in Swiss and Austrian Alps? Thanks |
The Northern Alps descriptor as used on here generally includes the Northern French Alps,as well as the North side of the main Alpine Ridge into Switzerland and Austria and the ECM map posted by @munich_irish certainly shows the Grand Massif receiving snow next Tues. The Grand Massif often benefits disproportionally from NW fronts because of the Stau effect caused by the Mont Blanc range a few km to the SE.
I think there are indications next week's action could focus more heavily further East into Austria. So let's hope it arrives as per current forecast!! 
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Wed 5-02-20 12:11; edited 1 time in total
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@jirac18, hope this helps!
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@notverygoodatskiing, it’s a bit confusing if you don’t know the geography. This might help.
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Struggling up from the archives... This from a few years ago. Click on the HISTALP link. It's the northern side and southern side that is the important part.
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@Gaza, and here's some more from the archives... The HISTALP link is good for north versus south.
| Quote: |
mheadbee, the Portes du Soleil are in the north and the west.
See this from last year. Linking to the year before. Few of the resorts have crossed from one side of the Alps to the other in the intervening period.
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
In terms of the geography of the Alps have a look at this from last year (click on the HISTALP link).
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
HISTALP has a useful map, but I tend to think of the Eastern Alps as roughly east of a line between Lake Constance (Bodensee) and Lake Como (so further west than it appears on the HISTALP map).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Some potential red flags for next week (please do not interpret this as gloom and doom):
-The mean jet position continues to be forecast in a zonal orientation, relatively far north
-The fronts impacting the Alps look relatively weak and weakening as they approach
-It looks warm overall with frequent temperature oscillations (avalanche and off-piste concerns)
-The fronts look to be accompanied by strong winds
-The southern Alps appear to be mostly left out for the foreseeable future (although the 06z GFS almost got there)
Feb 11/12 right now looks like the best shot at a good storm according to inter- and intra-model consensus. But that's pretty low confidence. The upcoming period has the potential to deliver some snow to the hills of central Germany, Belgium, and the UK (the extra latitude helps).
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Wed 5-02-20 12:30; edited 1 time in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Nice pic from Lech FB page to cheer people up.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@nozawaonsen, @luigi, thank you
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Anyone spot the mistake on that?
Or as normal I might not be reading it correctly 
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Outlook looking pretty positive to me. Storms clearing through for some sunny weather over the next few days.
The next week...
More snow for the northern side of the Alps!
Obviously do not (not) take these figures too seriously it just gives you a snapshot of the general picture out to Valentines Day based on the GFS op run.
But all the same good times for the northern side of the Alps if it comes off (though probably after the wind has died down).
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Yeah the 12z GFS was a pretty good run for the northern Alps. Especially in the day 5 - 9 period. The jetstream buckles were favorable. The mountains stay mostly on the cold side of the jet, although just barely. I still think the setup is pretty tenuous though. Slightly different buckling could be a lot less favorable. But I'm getting more confident as we move from long- to mid-range.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Big storm headed across a big chunk of the USA. Too bad most of the storm track isn't over the mountains. Although, once it gets to the New England states, they should be in for a right jolly good time skiing powder! Some of these South West and Southern States don't normally see much snow.
A powerful winter storm that dropped two inches of snow on El Paso along the Texas border began a 1,500-mile trek across the nation's heartland Wednesday, threatening heavy snow for Oklahoma City, Detroit and Chicago.
Winter storm warnings were in effect from eastern New Mexico to the greater St. Louis metro area.
Snow also was expected to push into Illinois, Michigan and other parts of the Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday before reaching the Northeast by Friday, the weather service said.
To the south, ahead of the storm, a deep surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to trigger heavy rain and severe thunderstorms, including possible tornadoes, from Louisiana to Virginia.
Portions of eastern Louisiana and most of Mississippi and Alabama faced the threat of severe thunderstorms, heavy rain and isolated tornadoes through Wednesday evening.
As of early Wednesday afternoon, the National Weather Service posted a tornado watch across much of Louisiana and Mississippi.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I see the question of obtaining accurate figures for the amount of fresh snow that has fallen in a resort has been raised elsewhere on the forum.
I’ll copy some thoughts from 2016. To sum up, it’s hard to accurately predict snowfall and it’s hard to accurately measure snowfall.
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
This from a week ago might help.
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
The broad point that it is in effect impossible to predict snowfall to the cm in advance is of course true.
There is simply too much variation over small distances which can be caused by local shifts in wind direction, geographical features etc.
Add to that drifting and settling which can make it almost impossible to accurately what has fallen ( https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/in-brief/4477/how-deep-snow
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Or this from last year.
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
With fresh snow falling it might be of interest to read the article below, which underlines the complexity of measuring snowfall and in particular comparing fresh snowfall from place to place.
How deep the snow?
https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/features/4477/how-deep-snow
"“Snow will always be a challenge to measure because of its dynamic nature,” says Doesken. “It varies in water content and crystal structure, and it melts, settles, blows about, and resists landing in our gauges, all before our very eyes." |
I think I probably try to address the question two or three times most seasons. UCAR's How Deep The Snow is a great place to start.
The bottom line is it is very difficult to measure snow accurately. Some resorts will try harder than others to be accurate, but even if they weren't tempted to over inflate the figures it is simply impossible to give a simple figure as it will vary widely within quite a small area. There is certainly no agreed standard which is applied to the figures you read. |
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Still snowing in Obertauern .2 days solid now. Cannot believe the forecasts of a bluebird day tomorrow and Friday. Here’s hoping
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Jet pouring across the Atlantic early next week. Looks unsettled and will bring snow to the northern Alps, but it may arrive initially as rain particularly in the west. Quite likely stormy and overall potentially disruptive.
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@nozawaonsen, any chance of snow for the northern UK slopes ie yadmoss next week in your view?? Seen a few comments saying snow early next week for the north...
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@kitenski, possible, but it looks like being stormy with fluctuating temperatures so unclear at this stage how it will play out.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Jet pouring across the Atlantic early next week. Looks unsettled and will bring snow to the northern Alps, but it may arrive initially as rain particularly in the west. Quite likely stormy and overall potentially disruptive.
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The western Alps also look good (excluding the southern end of the range). In fact the CMC and ECM show the most significant precipitation in France (Les Arcs - Chamonix area). The CMC actually brings in a deep trough towards the end of next week with a surface low in Italy and significant snow in the Dolomites. That wild solution doesn't have much support right now, but it's something to watch for I guess.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@kitenski, ECM is suggesting some snow for the northern hills and high ground in Scotland, showers over the weekend and a short heavier spell of snow overnight Wednesday / Thursday see here . Looks pretty windy though
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@kitenski, every model I've seen supports snow in the hills around Yadmoss several days next week - ECM, GFS, ICON, CMC. They all show several inches accumulation for the highest hills in fact. The freezing level in that area is forecast to drop below 2000ft for much of the week, and likely below 1000ft at times. I'm not familiar with the local topography or climatology so I can't say how the marine influence affects the local microclimate and ability to accumulate snow.
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I think you will almost certainly have snowfall at Yad Moss next week, I just think that the combination of no base, plus potential for rain to be mixed in and strong winds might not end up delivering something very skiable.
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You know it makes sense.
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@nozawaonsen, although of course what Yad Moss regulars define as skiable will be very different to what is skiable in an Alpine resort 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Very interesting EC 12 and 00 operational. Particularly EC 00 is building the ridge way north in the North Atlantic/ Norwegian Sea. Would create a new weather regime in the second half of February. It has the support of the control run, but otherwise no support in the ensambles. I think it is an outliner, but something to follow...
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Woosh, hmm Scandi high time? A couple of rogue deep FI runs on GFS have come up with extreme mid Atlantic ridging over the last few days. Hard to pull off mind you. Interesting to see if it picks up any support.
Schneider watch...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@Woosh, hmm Scandi high time? A couple of rogue deep FI runs on GFS have come up with extreme mid Atlantic ridging over the last few days. Hard to pull off mind you. Interesting to see if it picks up any support.
Schneider watch...
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The Schneider must do a good bircher muesli for breakfast if everyone is still inside - what's wrong with people, look at that corduroy waiting to be attacked?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@nozawaonsen, EC 00 is flirting with a Scandinavian high. Give it a 10 percent chance at the moment 
Should be an epic day I Austria today, but be very careful with that tempting powder. Avalanche risk at 4...
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I'm now desperately hoping that the ECM-based forecasts are right and the GFS-based ones are wrong in their forecasts for next week. Bergfex gives me a little snow, not much but enough to help, and light wind, whereas snow-forecast gives 50-60 km/h winds for a couple of days, which would completely shut down the lift system, meaning no skiing.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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this is Damuels today, I'm pretty sure this was down about the 60cm mark after the rain/warm spell...
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@J2R, not sure what resort you're going to, but 50-60 km/h shouldn't generally be enough to shut down all the lifts, unless you are going somewhere unusually exposed.
50 km/h tends to be about the point at which the most exposed lifts start to close. We've had reasonable days skiing even with 100 km/h at the top of the lift system.
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| kitenski wrote: |
this is Damuels today, I'm pretty sure this was down about the 60cm mark after the rain/warm spell...
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By the power of grayskull!
I prefer your photo.
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@denfinella, Staffal in the Monterosa area. It does seem to be particularly prone to wind closure and if the gondola and telecabine out of the valley are not running, you can't go anywhere, as there's no skiing low down served by chairs or T-bars. It was all closed over the last couple of days.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I think this Zillertal pic tops them all!
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FAQ
