 Poster: A snowHead
|
| Quote: |
Doesn't anyone on these sites look out of the window every now and then to check what they predict is actually happening?
|
 how sweet. It's all computer-generated; not a proper meteorologist in sight.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
That reminds me of a story told by a hydrologist who was giving a talk on the reasons behind the bad flooding in Chichester some years ago. He said their group had all been hunched over their computer models, trying to work out whether they should issue some warnings, when there was a knock on the door. There was a little old lady with water half way up her wellies, telling them the road outside the lab was flooded.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Jonpim wrote: |
Well, whatever model snowforecast is running has been completely wrong for the last few days here in La Plagne.
As I write this bright sunshine is pouring through the window.
Its been sunny and clear all day, both here and over in the 3-valleys.
Snowforecast, however, predicted cloud and 7cm snow.
It was similar yesterday.
Doesn't anyone on these sites look out of the window every now and then to check what they predict is actually happening  |
I was thinking exactly the same thing! Every night I say to my friends it's going to be cloudy/snowy/sunny tomorrow and we wake up to completely different weather! I think they're starting to think I'm making it up!!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
pam w, And the Met Man at a well known RAF Station in Scotland who hadn't noticed the haar (sea fog) roll in because his kettle had steamed the window up!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| Jonpim wrote: |
So, doesn't anyone check on the accuracy?
Isn't there a League Table of weather sites?
|
That's an awesome idea for a thread!! While in Val Thorens this week, I've been checking snow forecast, bergfex, and onthesnow - I wish I'd kept track of who got it right on what days.
It's an interesting point though, we all accept the weather forecasts aren't always accurate - but then in general we're not paying for them, they're offered free. But if you're paying for such a service then maybe they should offer some stats on accuracy so at least you know what you're paying for..
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Is it me or does the forecast for next week look warm and wet.
850mb shows oranges and yellows over the alps along with plenty precipitation from Wed onwards.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
like more than 6 days out on snowforecast you have to fork out some dosh.
|
yes, well, I guess there's one born every minute. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Snow forecast has actually been pretty good for our area the last week, apart from underestimating the actual snowfall - which IME it almost always does when there's a good dump here.
This afternoon it said 1 cm. I reckon we got 1.25.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
like more than 6 days out on snowforecast you have to fork out some dosh.
|
I don't think I've paid anything for snowforecast, it only lets me look at the basics though, which is all I need (and they've been really inaccurate this season), have started using MeteoSuisse.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
I suspect most people keep looking at forecasts until they get the one they would most like it to be and believe that (if they are an optimist) or the opposite (if a pessimist). I go with the former!
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
And the 12z goes warm....
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know what.. I would be OK with warm in Cham next week.... but warm and rain I'm not happy with  Fingers crossed it changes
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
Yes, warm and rain is the pits. But, again, the good news is that Chamonix meteo says the forecast reliability is "poor" - so really, it's anybody's guess.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
Given that the raw data for many of the popular but simplistic sites comes from one of the very few global models then you really have to work out the veracity of these models. If there is no man in the loop then it rapidly becomes CICO (c*a* in c*a* out). As to confidence levels its all to do with a basic understanding of the basic principles - a quick look at frontal/surface pressure charts will give you a clue as to how accurate a forecast will be. High pressure means an easy life for a forecaster (apart from the timing of the formation and dissipation of fog) - a series of fronts passing will be tricky, if theses occlude (as this week) even worse. Pinning your hopes on an App is then futile.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
18z GFS op run goes for a notably cold FI from 05 April. Little support at this stage. So will be interesting to see which way this goes tomorrow.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
I've just packed flip flops for Cham next week... lol... leaving snow boots behind and packing an umbrella instead !
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
00z seems to go for a warmer outlooks again but seems to be concencus on some precipitation 3-5th April which would I guess be mainly rain except on the peaks
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
Someone on our weather trading desk mentioned that any forecast more than about 48 hours out becomes less than 50% accurate. Given there are literally £ millions on the line, this is with the best and most expensive systems and models meteorological science can provide...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
boardiac, as i understand it, apart from the basic laws of physics, no one has any real idea of what tweaks the weather: they only go on pattern recognition.
So, they have a databank of previous scenarios and match what is happening now with the closest previous sequence.
Rather like trying to predict how my partner will react or behave: i get it right occasionally, but i'm usually wrong 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
boardiac,
"weather trading desk"
can i ask what that is?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probably another bunch of snake oil salesmen hedging against weather events
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GFS 06z goes warm, 12z goes cool, warm, cool from 5th April (at least for the Arlberg)
Didn't we have the same see saw 2 weeks ago before the big snow storm?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
yep, if it is the same outcome then i'm ready to book now LOL 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
| J2R wrote: |
| Current thoughts for April 5, then...Tignes or Obergurgl? |
It's Obergurgl! I booked in the end, after a couple of weeks of prevarication, scanning the long term forecasts for some help in my decision making. In the end it seemed that France is looking a little too warm, which would be OK if it were not for the rain forecast. Obergurgl is high, so it should hold on to its snow better than many places, whatever happens between now and April 5.
Of course, it'll probably turn out completely different from how it looks now!
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
J2R, excellent idea. This passive response to the weather where we all just accept what we get has go to go.
Time we organised the weather in a proper manner.
Set it up! Bound to make a fortune. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The next week looks pretty warm and mild. Whilst it won't bring fresh snow it looks pretty pleasant.
More uncertainty including the possibility of some change around 05 April, but that's some way out at this stage
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
| Quote: |
Whilst it won't bring fresh snow it looks pretty pleasant.
|
I'm looking forward to it - a fabulous few days coming up. And my visitors have gone home, so I can get out and enjoy it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
The next week looks pretty warm and mild. Whilst it won't bring fresh snow it looks pretty pleasant.
More uncertainty including the possibility of some change around 05 April, but that's some way out at this stage |
Please, please, please turn really cold again and dump a bit more snow then.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Mattmulkeen, +1
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
If no snow is due this week then that increases the probablity of it snowing some time during the week starting 5th April! It will almost certainly dump between the 5th and 19th of April (in France.) Lets be positive here.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| JayDub wrote: |
| If no snow is due this week then that increases the probablity of it snowing some time during the week starting 5th April! |
How do you come to this conclusion? I don't really think weather systems work like that - there's x amount of snow which needs to fall, so if it doesn't do it one week it'll have to do it the next. Of course, I'd like to think it's true, as I'm skiing for the week from April 5 myself.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| Quote: |
If no snow is due this week then that increases the probablity of it snowing some time during the week starting 5th April
|
Wouldn't it be nice if that were true? The old "law of averages" fallacy.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
To my untrained eye the weather is looking more unsettled from the 3rd April onwards, but a long way to go yet!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
This is Chamonix. Looks like a fairly solid forecast to the 5th. Getting steadily warmer then a disturbance, which may be rain, snow higher up. By which time I'll be home.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
pam w is quite right.
The so-called Law of Averages is a myth.
The most famous example of people foolishly holding on to this idea was August 18, 1913, at the casino in Monte Carlo, when black came up a record twenty-six times in succession.
Gamblers poured money onto red, more and more, each time black came up.
The Casino made a fortune.
See Gambler's Fallacy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jeez that gfs plot needs to cool down lol freezing level will be 3000m plus!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
.
