Loving the angst tonight. Personally I ere on the side of caution - much better to underplay the chances than promise epic powder and get 1cm of dust!
Between now and Wednesday most of the Alps will see some precipitation. Probably not a huge amount, but enough to improve on piste conditions. Some places may be lucky, like Fornet a week ago...
After Wednesday... no idea. ECMWF has thrown a spanner into things. Might be clearer tomorrow.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
These weather threads seem to be getting increasingly grumpy. I think the prospect of some snow would make everyone FAR happier.
Fingers crossed for everyone going away soon that it arrives. It can't stay like this for the rest of the season.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I spent 1984-85 in Chambéry. Snow was bad up until half term then improved a lot. We also had a cold snap in January (-25) - didn't leave the building for 2-3 days. The snow from mid Feb to April was fantastic. Hope this season follows that pattern.
After all it is free
After all it is free
philmes,
ps love it that you take the banter in good humour,a true fighter stand up make your predictions and then await judgement,ultimately god and his weather ~itch will decide but there,s nothing wrong with standing up and saying not alot will happen try politics youd be great at it, fence sitting and all that !!! seriously welcome your comments as you seem to know what you are looking at, roll on tomorrow and more gloom, promise i will send you a pic of me knee deep week beg 19th in valley de isere
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Quote:
Personally I'd love to see a repeat of 2007
yes - the snow cover in late December AND January was much worse than now, but the second half of the season was fine. I can't remember exactly when it started snowing because we left in early February - but it was around the middle of the month, I think. Family members were borrowing our apartment and had no snow chains with their hired car from Geneva. BIG snow was forecast at the end of their week and I kept phoning and nagging them to get chains in resort. They asked someone locally who said no, they wouldn't need them...... missed their flight at Geneva.
This is our 9th season and I think March has had the best snow in all of them.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
pam w, I like your posts, even though I'm in your bad books!
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
The key shift in this evening's ECM run was that it made such a shift (as it happened it was a very cold run and not without snowy options). It does not mean that that model is anymore likely, though it did have good support in the ECM ensembles. What it did show very clearly was that beyond six or seven days there is simply no agreement on the output between two of the major models (GFS or ECM) and many of the other models also show quite different variations in the second half of next week.
If you want to have any confidence in the output you would want to see it building run after run and across models. That is not happening at present. Moreover as recently as 48 hours ago the GFS output was looking quite different.
So the only conclusion I would be willing to make about the second half of next week is that it is uncertain, though trending cooler than this week. The week after I have no confidence at all. Let's see 18z.
Quite a bit of rambling and backbiting going on this evening. Not sure it's really the way forward...
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
18z GFS very different from 12z GFS. Very different from 12z ECM.
A bit of patience will be required.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen,
what about mon to weds please
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
18z GFS very different from 12z GFS. Very different from 12z ECM.
A bit of patience will be required.
18z frankly disgusting. A whole week of foehn wind? Jebus, no.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
But since at this stage there is no confidence in the outlook I would not worry about it.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:
I like your posts, even though I'm in your bad books!
garethjomo,
I'm very happy to wait for some certainty. Almost anything would be better than a week of foehn. I don't think I've ever encountered more than a few days.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looking at the trends, the 0z and how all the other weather sites are interpreting I'm sticking with my prediction of: 10 - 15 cm of snow for quite a number of the French Alp resorts between Monday and Friday next week. Wouldn't want to even attempt to predict anything for the following wek as it's too likely to change.
Positive: A lot of the Pistes will have some much needed Fresh snow to freshen them up.
Negative: Snow isn't going to be significant enough to cover off Piste or provide any powder days.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
A few thoughts perhaps. Keep it polite. Don't pester. Don't gloat if it looks snowy where you are. Don't whine if it doesn't. It probably isn't as bad as you fear. Don't take it too seriously. Don't take anything beyond 10 days seriously at all. These are only weather models.
Still a whole lot of uncertainty and a quite a difference in the models beyond the middle of this week. If there is a pattern it may be clearer this evening. Otherwise the general trend is a slight cooling one, with a slight increase in the chances of light snow in the Alps from the middle of next week, Tuesday/Wednesday. Snow into Austria, round Salzburg, Upper Austria, Styria, Eastern Tirol tonight and tomorrow.
Incidentally do keep in mind that the various forecasts (Met Office, snow-forecast, meteo france, wetter.at et) you see will almost certainly also be drawing their initial data from one model or another. Some with larger time lags than others.
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Fri 11-02-11 8:44; edited 1 time in total
Stark differences between the GFS and ECMWF 0z runs today. GFS continues the trend of precipitation in the southern French alps this week, before building high pressure and pulling in warmer temperatures in the second.
ECMWF looks the same for the first week, but rapidly diverges and brings the mega cold back onto the table.
So things very confused after the middle of next week, where there may be some snow in parts of the French alps. Some snow for Austria this weekend as well.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
getting hooked on this thread now, very enjoyable. tough skins are a necessity on forums like this.....
your interpretation of these charts is fascinating and much appreciated
Off to LDA tomorrow and we will get what we will get. hopefully I can get WiFi while I'm there and keep up with things......
Anyone looking at the jet stream charts will see why we will have 2 days of warm winds, followed by colder winds carrying lots of snow.
Next week is the first time in ages that the jet stream has hit continental Europe. At first it swoops over North Africa before dragging dry warm Sahara air up over the Alps (a tropical continental airflow). Two days later it is bringing moisture laden air down from the North Atlantic (a polar maritime air flow) and it's this that will give snow. The forecast is a little way off but jet stream forecasts can be very predictive and it will be partially right or all right, rather than all wrong.
The snow is coming and next weekend could see significant amounts. Pack your low light goggle lenses!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I suspect then tension / jibes and jousting is more out of frustration at mother nature than the folks that are delivering the facinating insight into the future.
At the end of the day........ it gets dark.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Mate's off to Alagna this weekend (long drive) and was looking at the forecasts etc and.................and
Days 4-6 Alagna Weather Summary: A heavy fall of snow, heaviest during Wed afternoon. Temperatures will be below freezing (max -4°C on Mon morning, min -8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.
And same forecast more or less for Serre
As bar shaker alludes to, at last we're seeing some unsettled weather - compare this chart with that of a few pages back and have also included a JetStream chart
Bring it on!
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
glad to see this back on thread with the detail about what may be coming!!
Please can everyone keep this request made higher up in mind over the coming days/weeks/rest of season.
Quote:
A few thoughts perhaps. Keep it polite. Don't pester.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
06z: It continues to look (as it has done for the last week) like there is the potential for some reasonable snow fall in the Alps midweek (with some initial probably lighter snow into the Austrian Alps this weekend and snow into the Pyrenees for Valentine's Day). I wouldn't hazard a guess beyond that at present. This run ends cold in the Alps, but the pattern keeps shifting back and forth even more dramatically than normal.
For those who are interested you can toggle between different formats on both meteociel and wetter to see the things like pressure, temperature, jet stream, winds etc, etc.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Here are ensembles for Les Deux Alpes, Alpes D'Huez.
As it has looked for much of the last week, two potential bands of snow. St Valentines's evening into Tuesday. And 17 February. Both look reasonable. Snow line around 1200m+, slightly lower later in the week.
Obviously no guarantees, but continues to look like fresh snow could reach Alps next week.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen, that looks alot better than the Arlberg wigglies which seem to stay above average temps.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
As a matter of interest what model does netweather use?
What's your best guess for Austria next week?
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
RetroBod,
i'm cautiously optimistic for an improvement in conditions - esp later in the week. If nowt else - its should be cooler - and potentially very cold the week we are there.
I'm sure you'd prefer an educated guess from Noza et al - but thats my OCD guess formed by reading several sources.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
For their Ski Forecast Charts NetWeather use GFS but....................
Based on GFS (Global Forecast System) data and updated 4 times a day, the ski and snowboard forecasts cover resorts from across the world. When the data is run through our custom software it is tailored and localised to take into account the height of the mountain and other factors. You will see that we give 2 sets of data in many instances - one for the base or village and one for the top lift as conditions can often vary widely between the two.
Best product NetWeather offer is their 5 min radar - great to see how the rain tracking - and to work out when it might be dry etc good for cycling and or to see when the fronts go through.
Will keep an eye on it middle of next week to see what is actually happening and where!
Lovely, thank you, especially if the sun shines for a week from next Sunday (the 20th).
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Weathercam wrote:
Mate's off to Alagna this weekend (long drive) and was looking at the forecasts etc and.................and
A heavy fall of snow, heaviest during Wed afternoon. Temperatures will be below freezing (max -4°C on Mon morning, min -8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.
And same forecast more or less for Serre
As bar shaker alludes to, at last we're seeing some unsettled weather - compare this chart with that of a few pages back and have also included a JetStream chart
Bring it on!
Yes, the jet stream is shifting. I have to believe the butterfly effect has taken affect. Somehwere thousands and thousands of miles away fm the Alps, a puff of wind fm a butterfly in Asia has caused the ever so slightest ripple, and the jet stream has been affected!
Other than avy conditions being very high in the alpine, (Natural slides, even on North, NW facing slopes were reported on Thursday.) My Canuck bretheren to the North have done pretty well this winter. Local forecasts are for a strong frontal system to arrive this evening. The only downside is the temps will rise very briefly before descending to 1,500 foot freezing levels over the weekend. Less so for WB. Strong winds are going to accompany this front, and that will cause concerns for wind loading of leeward slopes. Just means a whole lot of avy control work for ski patrol. Fingers crossed for some really decent snow fall in the Cascades for the next 4-5 days with low freezing levels! Any Snowheads that will be heading out to WB during Half-term are going to be in for a real treat...
And as mentioned in another post, this is all due to that butterfly over in Asia causing the jet stream to shift. Forecasters here are saying the jet stream models are looking very good for the next two weeks. Fingers, toes crossed that this means snow is coming to the Alps!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Snow prospects for Scotland over this weekend and into next week seem to be getting ramped up significantly according to both snow-forecast.com and Netweather (interesting it's both rather than just the one).
At Cairngorm there's anything up to 27cm predicted for the weekend and a heap more next week too, I believe snow in the west too although not as much.
nozawaonsen and anyone else (knowledgeable about the charts) - have you got any comments/thoughts based on what you've seen in the charts?
FWIW the Valloire weather guys are reporting Meteo France estimates of 5-7 cm in the prealpes and less in the interior for Haute Savoie, 10-20 cm for Isère, no estimates for Savoie. This is for Tuesday morning.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
roga, looks good for a fair amount of snow Saturday and then again Sunday. Should be good. A bit more looks like coming in midweek.
BUT
I got that from looking at GFS... and Snow-forecast get their base data from GFS... and Netweather get their base data from GFS...
Which was behind my point about comparing different forecasts. Of course there may be different interpretations by forecasters. They may apply custom software (both snow-forecast and netweather do apparently, see weathercam's comment above). But fundamentally they are running off the same data so can't really offer much in the way of collateral (watch though because they and the GFS model data may update at different points, some forecasts have several hours lag behind the models, so this might give the appearance of a different forecast when one is just out of date).
Anyway doesn't change the point that it looks quite snowy in Scotland over the weekend.
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Fri 11-02-11 19:47; edited 1 time in total
After all it is free
After all it is free
Quick glance at 12z: rather snowy Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in Western Alps. Snow line around 1200m+
Looks like it arrives around a day later in the Eastern Alps. Looks slightly weaker, though Austria may also benefit from light snow tonight into tomorrow.
From around the end of this week the operational spends the rest of the run going for very mild temperatures. Since it spent the previous run going for very cold temperatures I'd note it. But ignore it for now. The 12z mean ends colder than the 06z for what it's worth. I'm only really noting this to point out that there is no clear trend for temperatures beyond the end of next week.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
So what's the forecast for the wc downhill tomorrow?
I'm quite relieved at the lack of snow recently in the alps, saves me heaps of money as I'm not tempted to pop out for weekend of skiing and hopefully it means it storing itself up for mid March onwards as that's when I relocate to the alps. I think March is probably the month I get the best powder days from my experiences in France and Austria, good base, nice top ups, longer days, long may it continue that way.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Well it seems things are looking up! LOVE this thread, hopefully everyone will be a bit less frustrated (at least for) now and a little more optimistic.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
