@nozawaonsen, we took a taxi to the centre, the webcam does not do justice to the blizzard, outside the hotel Steiner.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
4 Vallées: On a more positive note, after a high of 12.8°C on the balcony yesterday (1500m), it dropped to a low of 0.7°C last night with light snow falling most of the time and it's now (12:55 CET) at -0.8°C on the balcony. Continuing snowfall forecast through to 4am tomorrow morning. Sunny and clear with more typical temperatures forecast from Thursday onwards.
Snowshoeing yesterday, however, I was impressed at how well the snow base has stood up to 2 days of continuous rain at lower altitudes. The green run beside the road at the edge of the village clearly had at least 20cm of solid pack. So that's good news if it's been as resilient higher up.
Two downsides are we seem to be getting a lot of gusty high wind today, even at low altitudes, and a lot of the footpaths in the village have a treacherous base of ice, after a couple of days of thaw/freeze cycles. So bring your YakTraks or equivalent.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
It looks like Switzerland was hit hardest so far with the frontal passage - at least in terms of snow. A weak impulse moving southward (currently near the Netherlands) should keep things going heavily there overnight. The German pre-Alps have slightly underperformed so far, as have possibly other areas in the northern alps. But it's difficult to tell with all the windblown snow.
The next phase is almost purely nordstau, which should gradually shift the focus eastward into Austria. The powdery snow should pile up quickly, though winds look to stay fairly strong, which is not ideal for high ratio snow.
Looks like Monterosa has largely missed out on the snow again, which is a bit of a shame. So, probably mainly piste skiing this time. Whatever, I will most certainly have fun.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quick update on the French NA situation at 15h00: zero iso @700-900 meters depending on latitude so expect some snow on the roads/cols, 5cm @ 1300 meters, 10cm > 1600 m. Not a lot so far but with the return to cold it will improve the skiability where there was already a base and cover up any ice. Don't expect to ski off piste much below 1600 meters.
Not a game changer wrt off piste but a game changer in terms of skiability of lower slopes in the area that already had snow cover as the weekend rain had trashed them.
I have to say I'm a little baffled by the extreme differences I'm often seeing between two forecasts, even at really short range such as the next 24 hours (I could understand for a few days or more away). Bergfex, SCGB and WePowder were all saying variously 30-40cm or so of snow at the top of the Monterosa ski area today, but snow-forecast.com (which I believe to be GFS) was saying something more like 5cm, hardly anything at all. As it happens, I think the latter was unfortunately a little more accurate. But what explains such a large discrepancy as this?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@J2R, If you say *the resort that must not be named* three times on this thread, the Monterosa bogeyman comes and steals all the snow.
After all it is free
After all it is free
altaski8 wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
It was +10c at midnight in Bansko village (Bulgaria) at 1000m today.
In deepest winter.
Pretty much unprecedented weather at the moment.
You can always find instantaneous temperature extremes somewhere in the world. More telling are longer-term temperature averages...monthly, seasonal etc.
This winter has been warmer than average throughout almost all of Europe, but it has not been extreme, on average.
The past few days were warm in Bansko. But Wed - Sat will be below average.
And 10°C isn't very extreme, even in the middle of an early February night.
Dress it up all you want, son.
But the stats are clear.
It has been the second hottest winter in France in ~120 years.
Chamonix town has never fallen below -10c all winter, for the first time ever in recorded history.
Most everywhere below 1000m is green in the entire Alps.
Zell lake, in Austria, is unfrozen. They once raced cars on the ice.
Many resorts got zero snow in January.
To be +10c at 1000m, at night, in Eastern Europe, in the deepest trough of coldest winter, is almost unprecedented.
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J2R wrote:
I have to say I'm a little baffled by the extreme differences I'm often seeing between two forecasts, even at really short range such as the next 24 hours (I could understand for a few days or more away). Bergfex, SCGB and WePowder were all saying variously 30-40cm or so of snow at the top of the Monterosa ski area today, but snow-forecast.com (which I believe to be GFS) was saying something more like 5cm, hardly anything at all. As it happens, I think the latter was unfortunately a little more accurate. But what explains such a large discrepancy as this?
If I had to guess, I would say it's the resolution of the model data being used to generate the snow accumulation forecast. In setups like this, snow accumulations vary significantly across relatively short distances, e.g. ~10km. If the resolution of input data is not finer than that, it will not accurately reflect the sharp gradient. In other words, if the input data lumps the west slope of the Matterhorn and Champoluc into the same grid cell, it will overestimate precipitation in Champoluc on a NW flow.
In my limited experience, the Monterosa ski area rarely gets significant snow on pure NW flow (the last event was approx. two straight days of 10cm despite 50cm+ not far to the west). Some snow is making it across the border this evening and there's still a chance for some modest accumulations overnight. I would try to get a feel for which sites are most accurate based on different scenarios and go with those in the future.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
@J2R, the Monte Rosa is situated south of the main alpine ridge. Thus, it rarly see a lot of snow when you have storms from north or west. What you are looking for is storms from the south and to be honest, the outlook for southern storms at the moment is not looking very good.
Monte Rosa is one of my favorite ski areas in the Alps. It is sooooo good when it is good. But after the multiple Genova lows in November, it has been dry. And it looks like it will continue that way. Anyway, it is still Italy and a beautiful area to enjoy no matter the conditions.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@altaski8, thanks, helpful.
@Woosh, yes, I appreciate that it doesn't see the main benefit of storms from the north and west. But why is that not reflected in the snow forecasts? Or rather, why the wide disparity between different forecasts? The forecasters are themselves presumably aware that Monterosa is south of the mountain ridge. altaksi8's suggestion that it's "the resolution of the model data being used to generate the snow accumulation forecast" seems plausible, as a little to the north west, Courmayeur seems to have got a lot more snow.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:
I appreciate that it doesn't see the main benefit of storms from the north and west. But why is that not reflected in the snow forecasts?
Because computer models don't take into account alpine ridges.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Whitegold, if you are not talking about Belgians then frankly I just don’t know why you are even posting in here.
Your reports on the Belgian snow situation were quite frankly one of the very few reasons I gave you any credibility at all (actually that’s a lie, could you tell which bit though).
Incidentally although your picture of an at times very mild and very dry January for the Alps is correct your so called “stats” are all a bit flakey? Did you not notice before you typed them? Happens to all of us of course. I’ve put some right old bloomers out there over the years. You might want to tidy them up, correct them and make them a bit more relevant. Or else you could...
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
kitenski wrote:
Quote:
I appreciate that it doesn't see the main benefit of storms from the north and west. But why is that not reflected in the snow forecasts?
Because computer models don't take into account alpine ridges.
Really? That seems pretty basic to me.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@J2R, as far as I can tell you are using pretty basic forecasting tools (snow forecast, SCGB) which use icon forecasts and figures quoting eg 23cm tomorrow at this or that location?
These are all automatically generated often (though not necessarily in the cases I mentioned) by just applying GFS op runs which is a fairly large scale model. Of course you can combine your weather model with a detailed terrain model (and most specialised forecasts do to some extent) which will start to increase the quality of your forecast.
But the quality of the models in capturing small detail and quality of the integration of the models will be crucial if you want to try to capture the detail of what in any case is complex approaching chaotic at present.
If you are providing a service trying to cover the whole of the Alps (and indeed other areas) then there’s a question about how much effort you can realistically afford to put in and how much human interpretation you want to include. Many of the services you mention will have focussed on quick turn around and eye catching graphics to draw people in to provide simple and easy to use forecasts.
But simple and easy to use is often done at the expense of capturing complexity.
Have a look at post one on page one for a bit more context.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Oates
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Porridge.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, it just seems very surprising to me that weather forecasts designed specifically for snow forecasting (such as WePowder) should not take into account mountainous terrain. As regards human interpretation, I would have imagined this only need be considered when initially setting up any computer modelling , not for each forecast. After all, the Alps don't move. It would surely be trivial to apply some factor to each resort depending on where it lies in relation to the main mountain ridges, so that the general figure for snow could be automatically adjusted.
@J2R, you misread. I imagine they do take into account mountainous terrain. It’s just not clear how much. And to be honest suggesting that it is trivial to forecast storms raging through the mountains is perhaps a bit dismissive of the complexity. But as I said before I’m not sure I would use the tools you are trying to use and I think it’s harder to forecast snowfall than you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@Maersk, I stand corrected. The inference was the important bit though!
@J2R, I think wepowder applies human input to take into account mountainous terrain. Many others that use auto generated computer models don’t IMHO.
I know our local weatherman, he says he takes various computer models and applies his expertise/knowledge before he creates his TV forecast. He also is very reticent to give any kind of forecast > 24 hours out, even over a pint!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, sorry, I really didn't mean to imply that this business wasn't seriously complex. My surprise was that terrain was not taken into account, but from what you say it is. I don't for a moment imagine it is easy to forecast snowfall.
FWIW, I have come to believe that the SCGB snow forecast is fantastical nonsense, bearing little relationship to what will actually happen (although maybe it's more accurate for some resorts).
After all it is free
After all it is free
twoodwar
It was mildly amusing
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@J2R, given the sheer number of ski locations it simply is not feasible for each forecast to be manually adjusted to fit all the variables, the snow forecasting apps are (like all forecasts) best guesses. In an ideal world each area would have its own forecaster who would have detailed local knowledge which they could combine with the forecasting models we obsess about to produce a tailored forecast. I know Chamonix has exactly this and maybe a few of the other large areas do too. No help for the Monterosa area though
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
I think the ECMWF runs at 9km square horizontal resolution and the GFS at 13km. And both also have fairly dense vertical grid spacing. That's fine enough to simulate most of the effects of major terrain features. Several very high resolution models operate at much finer resolutions over shorter durations. These can show the effects of individual mountain peaks, although the output tends to be too extreme.
There are several obstacles to accurate snow forecasting. The first is that cumulative precipitation at the surface is the least accurate modeled meteorological parameter. It is extremely difficult to simulate exactly how much precipitation will reach the ground, precisely when, and precisely where. The tiniest model error can shift an intense snow band by 20km or 1 hour. That's nothing for a model with a global domain, but could be significant for an individual ski resort. The next problem is that the formation of a snow crystal is a complex process that directly affects accumulation. Wind, humidity, and surface temperature also affect accumulation efficiency. Even if you know exactly how much precipitation will fall, it's still difficult to estimate snow accumulation. The snow to liquid ratio commonly varies from 5:1 to 40:1 in the mountains at our latitude, depending on many of the factors listed.
Even if a weather forecaster basically nails a forecast, they still might be way off in terms of snow accumulation. And unfortunately that's what people remember most. It's also why forecasted snow amounts tends to have very wide ranges.
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Tue 4-02-20 23:24; edited 2 times in total
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@altaski8, great informative post, thanks!
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@J2R, Pont Serrand, on the Little St Bernard pass road next to La Thuile got plastered last week...not many miles as the crow flies from MonteRosa, but local topography meant it somehow caught a slug of the westerly flow funnelling through the pass.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
In La Thuile, just a couple of kms away, they got 60-70cm, but nowhere near as much as Pont Serrand, so just goes to show how local topography can make a big difference.
@J2R, I think the Arome model has shown better results when it comes to local differences in the mountains regarding intensity of snow/rain levels compared to EC and GFS. Few free sites use it though.
When it comes to the Monte Rosa area it is important to remember that it has one of the most complex climate in the Alps. This is all about being situated where it is just south of these large mountains. Many seasons are quite poor due to this with low snowfall, but when low pressures from the south get stuck here, it gets epic conditions. For example, 2009 was such a season.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
This is what (roughly) snowfall looks like out to the middle of next week.
Still potential for another glancing blow to northern Alps on 13/14 February. Let’s see what ECM has to say.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Snow up to ground floor hotel windowsill. Still snowing very heavily.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Talking of the strength of the jet at the moment (or we were a couple of days ago) there are weather warnings out for the UK this weekend.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
EC outlook; several storms from north from 9/10th to 13 of February. The high and dry that might persist for some time. Might be quite dry after the 13 for the rest of February.
Just in time for my flight to GVA, will be watching this closely =0( Looking good for the slopes, as long as I can get there!!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
latest ECM outlook seems to suggest a cold front hitting the alps around lunchtime on the 11th. Suggests back to high pressure after that. I guess the front could end up tracking further north if the airflow is more westerly than north westerly, which would mean less snow. Dont think this will bring much, if any, snow to Monterosa.
@munich_irish, don't really mind, as long as it doesn't bring strong winds (to which the area is vulnerable - most lifts can't run).
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Next week looks like it could see 50-70cms fresh snow for the northern Alps to low levels. Could be pretty stormy mind you. That’s not bad on top of what’s fallen over the last day (and in Austria is still falling).
Schneider watch.
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After all it is free
@nozawaonsen, pardon my ignorance but what do you (or is generally) defined as Northern Alps? Would that include areas such as Grand Massif or are you talking further across as in Swiss and Austrian Alps? Thanks
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Is it comprehensible? Is it useful? I can't understand how the two vertical axes mesh. Looking at it now it seems to indicate on the right a total of up to 30 cms, and the left seems to show the percentage likelihood. But I could be totally wrong.
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@Pasigal, left is % of cloud cover IMHO and right is the amount of snow, so for today its showing 100% cloud cover and 0-1cm of snow, then clearing up tomorrow. I can't figure out what the far right mini graph is showing tbh, it might be current snow depth (as a guess)
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