 Poster: A snowHead
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Keep the dancing up Pam, watching the daisies cams with interest!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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pam w, Big Snow here in La Plagne too, but we got soaked with heavy rain at 1600m, and that tricky snow that keeps stop-starting you.
Above that, everything transformed: snow on the trees, old tracks covered up, and a few snowmen skiing about.
Still snowing hard: think snowforecast underestimated again. 
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| Quote: |
snowforecast underestimated again
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IME snow forecast invariably underestimates. We quite frequently have had 30 - 40 cms at a time, in recent years, and the forecast is more likely to have been around 15 - 20.
Still snowing hard here at 1550. Wet stuff, for sure, but piling up and everything white.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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as forecast still warm (17 in Schladming town) and sunny here in the east of the alps, with the steady southerly fohn blowing higher up, but all set to change this evening. snow due down to valleys. Hard to believe after such a warm day but seen it a happen many times before (though not this season)
Radar covering all of the alps here http://meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur&lightning=1
and more specific to Austria (just see some precip turning up in places)
http://www.wetter.at/wetter/wetterradar
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Still snowing here in 1800, but wet and slushy on the roads.
Above Plagne Centre (1970m) snow is soft and powdery and won't make snowballs.
Had to clear at least 20cm off the car when went out this evening.
Tomorrow could be interesting
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Is it there any indication how long the current unsettled weather system is likely to last?
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Snow Hound, the heaviest of the snow looks like clearing the Alps later tomorrow, but low pressure looks like holding across Europe for much of the coming week. High pressure looks like making a return next weekend (though with all the usual caveats a week out).
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OK, weather gurus...If you were making a trip to the Alps on April 5, which country/area would you expect the best snow to be found then? I had more or less settled on Obegurgl but I get the impression the snowfall isn't going to be as much as predicted. And, of course, we're still 2 weeks out from my travel date, so anything could happen between now and then. But what does your instinct tell you?
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J2R, why do you think the snowfall will be less than predicted? Much of the snowfall isn't due to arrive in Austria till overnight.
High is the obvious advice, so your original choice seems sound.
Some suggestions at the end of the 00z ECM run that a further cold spell could arrive at the start of April.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| J2R, why do you think the snowfall will be less than predicted? Much of the snowfall isn't due to arrive in Austria till overnight. |
Estimates revised downwards on the Ski Club of GB forecast, and only 2cm recorded as having fallen yesterday as against the 20cm or so predicted. But if it's just late arriving, that's OK! It's just that I'm all too familiar with the big dump forecast for a few days out, which ends up being half a dozen flakes by the time the day finally arrives... 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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J2R, predicting snowfall to the cm is nearly impossible. Measuring it to the cm is nearly impossible.
Looks like plenty in the webcams already.
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| Quote: |
I'm all too familiar with the big dump forecast for a few days out, which ends up being half a dozen flakes by the time the day finally arrives.
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or the opposite - we've had twice as much as predicted and it's still snowing quite hard.
predicting snowfall is pretty well impossible - and it's in the nature of the chaotic weather beast that it's wrong in both directions. But it's in the nature of the skier beast that they only notice when the snowfall is less than predicted. 
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You know it makes sense.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
J2R, predicting snowfall to the cm is nearly impossible. Measuring it to the cm is nearly impossible.
Looks like plenty in the webcams already. |
Yes, I know it's all very inexact. I'm just trying to get a feel, that's all. If I'm to get a decent deal on a package I'm going to have to book within a couple of days, I think, and at the moment I'm undecided between France (probably Tignes or Les Arcs) and Austria (probably Obergurgl), or maybe Cervinia.
But you're right, it really looks to be coming down in Obergurgl at the moment. The downside of Austria for me is that the base looks a little less than normal, which means it may not survive an onslaught of hot sunny weather as well as the French or Italian resorts with the good deep bases.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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If you are going high enough (and the places you mention are all high) then I don't think it will matter a huge amount.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Quote: |
French or Italian resorts with the good deep bases.
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the base was better than seasonal average in a good many French resorts but I suspect the exceptionally hot weather of the last two weeks has eroded it a lot. It's difficult to predict how it will be by 5 April; the current heavy snowfall is very welcome but the outlook is uncertain. If you can, I'd wait and see what's looking best a bit nearer the time.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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For what it's worth, snow has arrived down to 600 metres now in the jura, had a lovely morning bouncing around in roughly 20-30 cms of fresh powder. Vis a bit rubbish, cos of all the snow that's falling. No pistes to be seen, just powpow.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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J2R, if you are relying on the weather/snow forecast from the Ski Club of GB site, then you are sure to be disappointed or pleasantly surprised - best treated rather like the the racing tips on BBC Radio 4 Today Program (see Guardian Article if you are not familiar): we would protest if not available, but no one takes it very seriously.
Take the situation for La Plagne. It has snowed here almost continually for the last 24 hours. Today we skied through knee-high soft fluffy snow. But the SCGB entry for La Plagne stubbornly insists only 10cm has fallen. Rubbish of course.
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I'm familiar with the variable accuracy of the SCGB forecasts (which is not their fault, I would say, it's just down to the current imperfect state of meteorological science). But I wasn't aware that the reporting of snow fallen was inaccurate. They've generally been reasonably accurate where I've been, although with perhaps a tendency to underestimate occasionally.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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SLF update for Switzerland.
A critical avalanche situation will prevail. High avalanche danger will be encountered in some regions
http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN
"The new fallen snow from the weekend was deposited atop a crust over widespread areas and in many regions was easily triggered. The fresh fallen snow is quite loosely packed and can be intensively transported by the currently arising northerly winds even at moderate wind strength.
Beneath the new fallen snow, the snow cover on south facing slopes below about 3000 m, on east and west facing slopes below about 2700 m, is moist. Otherwise the snow cover is favourably structured in most regions. The snow layering is unfavourable particularly on west, north and east facing slopes in southern Valais, in northern and central Grisons as well as in northern Lower Engadine. In those regions on east and west facing slopes more than anywhere else, increasingly frequent moist avalanches can fracture all the way down to the weak layers near to the ground.
The intensity of the snowfall is expected to taper off. During the day skies will be variably cloudy accompanied by assorted snow showers on the northern flank of the Alps in particular, with bright intervals in the Valais more than anywhere else, and in Grisons. In the central sector of the southern flank of the Alps it will be rather sunny.
Fresh snow
Between Sunday afternoon and Monday evening, the following amounts of new fallen snow are expected:
central and eastern sectors of the northern flank of the Alps, as well as Prättigau: 15 to 30 cm
remaining regions: less than 15 cm; on the southern flank of the Alps it will remain dry"
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Met o long range out to 21 April is reasonable. Average to cool in the north so probably further snow loss but also some new snow too at times. Looks good skiing in the west of Scotland in particular where they are having to dig out the top tows again after yesterdays heavy snow.
Lake District also very good again today.
Hoping Chamonix will gain some snow during April. Not heading out there till May 
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This was issued 18:00 last night by Salzburg avi service, will update again at 7:30 this morning, BUT level 4 avi risk, not surprising really from what we saw yesterday.
http://www.lawine.salzburg.at/start.html?lang=de_GE
Still snowing in Schladming, going to be a good powder day, though careful where we go.
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looks like Stuben did ok out of the storm, I'm guessing anything that fell on already brown ground will melt very quickly....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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looks fabulous
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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moffatross, what does that mean? I have no idea how to read these weather maps but we are trying to decide where to go from saturday for a week so some weather tips would be nice
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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lynseyf, make of it what you will and remember it's still just 2 weather models playing guessing games and they diverge before day 10 anyway. My take though is that there are hints that cooler and more disturbed weather may start to establish itself from the middle of next week, initially bringing wintry showers off the north sea to the eastern side of the UK but invariably, if the high pressure fills north, it'd push much colder air into the Alps from the east too and leave the UK largely cold, dry and sunny. If those synoptics shown do materialise, there would be precipitation across the eastern Alps from Wednesday onwards but temperatures there would initially be 2-3 degrees above freezing at 1,500 metres before the colder air arrives. Crystal Ball over and out. 
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moffatross, Thanks just trying to decide whether to pick somewhere drivable from Munich or head to Geneva and pick somewhere in that are, sounds like stay high is still probably the best bet.
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You know it makes sense.
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lynseyf, have just returned from long weekend in Obertauern. We drove back to Munich late yesterday afternoon and the snow cover on all the visible mountains was impressive. Obertauern itself received a huge dump with 50cm falling in the village on Sunday. Still snowing on and off yesterday but definately brightening up. Had a great day yesterday messing about in (more than) knee deep powder on the lower slopes. Higher slopes were still murky and some closed due to serious avalanche risk. Cooler temperatures will keep the snow in good order whilst they get to work bashing it. I would think anywhere in the greater Ski Amade area would be fantastic for the next week and all within 2-2.30hrs from Munich.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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lynseyf, can you decide on Thursday or Friday? That cold spell is appearing on some GFS ensembles that I am looking at but only from the 5th/6th April...
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Poster: A snowHead
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| wib wrote: |
| lynseyf, have just returned from long weekend in Obertauern. We drove back to Munich late yesterday afternoon and the snow cover on all the visible mountains was impressive. Obertauern itself received a huge dump with 50cm falling in the village on Sunday. Still snowing on and off yesterday but definately brightening up. Had a great day yesterday messing about in (more than) knee deep powder on the lower slopes. Higher slopes were still murky and some closed due to serious avalanche risk. Cooler temperatures will keep the snow in good order whilst they get to work bashing it. I would think anywhere in the greater Ski Amade area would be fantastic for the next week and all within 2-2.30hrs from Munich. |
Did you get the snowchains in the end? Sounds like the conditions were great - very jealous, now hoping to get another big dump before I go to Austria at easter.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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AthersT, after weighing it all up and speaking to a friend of mine in Germany who said he had only ever used chains once in 25 years, i decided not. I then proceeded to toss and turn all night Sunday worried that i wouldn't get down the valley. I need not have worried. By 10 o'clock the roads were clear and we rolled back without incident. I feel sure that you will be fine at Easter so long as you have access to a bit above 1700m or so. Thursday, Friday, Saturday was 10 deg + and conditions were still ok - great if you got out early.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Wib I'm off to Ischgl which is mostly above 2000m so I should be fine. Keeping my fingers crossed for fresh snow prior to going hoping for some late season powder.
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Any thoughts on weather shaping up for early April, the wigglies which I have suddenly become obsessed about again are suggesting it will be warm and wet at 1500m in the northern French Alps. Is that a reasonable assessment of how it is shaping up?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Colder weather at the start of April now looks like falling to the east of the Alps.
Temperatures will rise over the coming week (though the next couple of days stil look pretty chilly overnight).
Chamonix
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_070460_g05.png
Arlberg
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_100470_g05.png
The weather should start to clear too from Friday though there may still be high cloud.
Possibly becoming more unsettled as we get to the middle of next week. No real signs of anything particularly cold beyond that point (three or four of the ensembles go cold, but the weight is still on mild), but confidence (as you would anticipate) diminishes from around 04 April.
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Thanks Noza, that aligns with what I was seeing. Will wait a little longer to decide if things align more on cold or warm and go from there. Itching to ski, but not slush puppy all day or worse, in rain
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The GFS 6z brings the cold back from the 5th April....still too far away but here we go with the will it/won't it see saw!!
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well we've booked Tignes so should just stop looking on here in case it starts snowing in the easter alps
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Well, whatever model snowforecast is running has been completely wrong for the last few days here in La Plagne.
As I write this bright sunshine is pouring through the window.
Its been sunny and clear all day, both here and over in the 3-valleys.
Snowforecast, however, predicted cloud and 7cm snow.
It was similar yesterday.
Doesn't anyone on these sites look out of the window every now and then to check what they predict is actually happening
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Current thoughts for April 5, then...Tignes or Obergurgl?
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FAQ
