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The all new 23/24 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Sounds promising for the last bit of the season @polo. I’m out for a 9 day trip 15-24/3 then back again on 28th for a week, so some snow and cold would be awesome.

Just pondering whether to come back for closing weekend in Avoriaz in April.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@polo, good work
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Snow forecasts are like my first girlfriend, promising just enough to keep me interested for weeks and weeks.....
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Yeah it's looking sketchy again for the north, some models have a dusting, others (ECM) still thinking 20cm (NW) to tues

Regarding next weekend, models are struggling, as they often do with high lat blocking....does the high sink over the alps, or even if we get undercutting from east and west the next problem will be how they interact. Always have the risk of yet more SW'lies as the low from west tries to phase with lows coming from the E/NE.

Here are the 4 main models showing the wide range of pressure and temp outcomes....the battleground between mild and cold clear to see, but impossible to make much of a forecast at this range



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@polo, the forecasts seem to be changing almost as quickly as I can refresh them lol. Thanks for the updates, here's hoping we get something this week in Haute-Savoie at least!!! It feels like spring out there right now though.

EDIT: haha I just walked outside and it's now cloudy and feeling cold. I literally went for a run in shorts and a t-shirt at 11:00!! Very Happy
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It's dumping huge in Tignes just now!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Lifts closing in Italy this afternoon due to the immense snowfall.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Serre Chevalier today it’s been sprinkling light snow all day quite high wind up the hill. Not really accumulating much but there was a top up of a few centimetres last night. The valley is as brown as a bear.
Some lovely underski conditions up high though on piste. Viz pretty poor
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Come to Italy.

Drowning in powda.

Nudging 2m in the past week at altitude.
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Where in Italy should we be going to? I have flights booked for Skiamade/skiwelt on the 16th but packages to Italy looking well priced so a switch is an option
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Acosta Valley has had huge amounts of snow this week. Monterosa area was closed today with the amount of snow.

That’s where I’d be looking in Italy for the 16th.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@LeLanternVert, as of right now Monterosa looks great (Gressoney not so much) but the 16th is ~2 weeks away and much can change …
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
A new AI model has been released on meteociel and wetterzentrale, it's ECMWF's AIFS model, which is statistically now running better than the normal ECM at day 9 and 10, but otherwise similar verification (days 1-8 ). It's a bit slow to update at the moment, so only the 06z available.

First chart is temps on the 7th, can see the expected warm up over western europe due to position of atlantic trough and the cold trying to arrive from the NE. But by early next week the whole pattern has flattened, with the mild and cold barrieir now further north....so while parts of eastern europe will most likely see -10c at 1500m, it doesn't look like reaching far enough west to trouble the alps. Still 0 at 1500m though. Anyway, just one model....it will change beyond 5 days.
Third chart is it's view on total ppn out to wednesday. FL's are low enough .....just need stuff to fall from the clouds.



And a quick look at the ensembles for Haute Savoie region.....more support building for tuesday and only 48 hours to go.....so about 8 rounds of downgrades then Very Happy

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Looking positivish then @polo.

Wepowder seems to have it getting much colder after 11 March. But obviously far too far away to be anything other than hopium!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Definitely on the red pills this week
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@andy from embsay, yeah, current cloud issues aside, the point where we need some luck (10-12th) is becoming clearer. Rather than a clean undercut from the east, it's looking more and more like a western trough will slide under the northern blocking. Again it's going to be messy with the phasing (as the 2 areas of low pressure interact). A warm sector is inevitable, but it may be brief, or miss the alps. The further east the trough can travel, the more cold air will be dragged in.

4 models here for the 11th....ECM is the least enthusiastic (last chart, shallower low and stalling), but if that atlantic trough can track all the way east towards austria as shown on some models it will be a rarely seen pattern (last 10 years) and rather snowy outcome.



Lots of ifs and buts.....

Ensembles for PdS and Salzburg below show the wide spreads and increased activity for those dates



Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Mon 4-03-24 12:33; edited 2 times in total
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@polo, chilly in the UK too on some of those charts?
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Yep.....not far from the real cold over northern europe (-8 to -12 at 1500m).....but really no confidence in any detail with this pattern....won't be settled until 3-4 days out. Can see how the deep pool of cold air has moved a long way north in the last few days, as the trough to the west becomes more influential, pushing into central europe and deflecting / moderating the cold further north. Will probably change again.

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so is that yes or no for snowfall in the three valleys over the next few days ?
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And for Avoriaz please too? Are we included in the snow party? Eh oh!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@UtahGetMeTwo, MeteoBlue currently says 100% probability of precipitation for Meribel on Tuesday, but only 55% predictability, so all to play for! As ever with mountain weather I guess we will find out on the day! https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/week/m%c3%a9ribel_france_2994404?day=2
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Flew in to Innsbruck on Saturday and saw SkiWelt. Looked really sad with only long white lines from mid mountain. Am in Selva where snow cover is fine all over but no point skiing after about 3. Too soft. Fair amount of snow forecast Weds.
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I think a lot of SkiWelt is pretty low, is it not, @buchanan101, and as such will have suffered when the precipitation fell mainly as rain? I'm hoping Mayrhofen will be somewhat better. Not expecting miracles, though.
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Snow showing up for the weekend on bergfex and snowforecast but wepowder suspects that the swing will be to warm not cold
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Powder fever struck big today.

Yet more snowfall this coming weekend above 1500m.

Italy is the new Japan.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
There better be some snow, not asking for much, tonight - tomorrow or I am throwing in the towel, and/or driving to Italy.
I still wouldn't take any model output / website forecast seriously for the 10-12th timeframe because it's a rapidly moving elusive target.

Just highlighting one model here, more for anyone wanting to see how pressure patterns impact temps, and how complex / rare this pattern is.....that's why I'm still here Very Happy .....all of the other models (12z Op runs) are different, so might as well just pick one. Anything can still happen.

UKMO 12z....Sunday morning, the atlantic low is heading towards london (or maybe cardiff) under the green area of high pressure to the north. The temps on the next graph show the warm sector of air over the alps (via SW flow), with deep cold to the north and east of europe (coming around the back of the 'Scandi high').



By Monday lunch, it's east meets west, as the low's try to do some kind of handshake, ie phase / interact with each other....but with competing air flow, both sets of isobars are trying to win the anti clockwise spin off showdown. In this example, enough cold air is pulled down from Scandinavia to the northern alps, but the southern alps are under mild SW flow from the main atlantlc trough, with the jet stream digging down thru Iberia / med.



But will it snow tomorrow...who knows wink
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I think Meteoblue’s jet stream diagram has the jetstream heading for Spain as you say Polo. Marginal stuff though!!

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

There better be some snow, not asking for much, tonight - tomorrow or I am throwing in the towel, and/or driving to Italy.


Pick me up on the way!!!! I got tunnel passes. Laughing
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
A dusting in Avoriaz this morning @polo and looking like more to come. Keep the faith.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Basic query here - how do you edit your favourites on wepowder?

P.s. what is the best website (other than here) to get upto date resort snow reports on?

P.p.s. is it just me or maybe I'm becoming tech stupid, as I'm a subscriber of both wepowder & snow-forecast.com, have a masters degree in technology & yet I still find it much more clunky to actually look up the snow forecast in any chosen resort when using them!?!....

I actually found snow forecast much more user friendly (I.e. far fewer clicks to access forecasts) about 5 years ago tbh....

(1st world problem moan over...)
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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polo wrote:
But will it snow tomorrow...who knows wink


I do! More chance of my Mrs begging me to follow her down the nearest black......
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@horgand, there's a little heart symbol just below the tabs to add to favourites. Can't help you with the other questions!

Looks like there's still a lot of uncertainty beyond this weekend - for Saalbach GFS 12 had lows of -0.5 next Wednesday, GFS 18 says -11 Confused
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How reliable is GFS compared to ECMWF on its forecast, should we focus on ECMWF or is GFS good to follow?

Currently looking at 14th and GFS is saying it's going to pour down rain while ECMWF has no rain forecast at all (this is for Soldeu, Andorra)
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@Theobane, They are both good, that far out take an average of the two and you may get close. Or you might be wildly out!
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chocksaway wrote:
@Theobane, They are both good, that far out take an average of the two and you may get close. Or you might be wildly out!


Yeah, I think might follow the ensemble and just pray that temps stay down. Heading to Soldeu on the 17th and it looks like four days of solid rain up to it on GFS (using Snow-Forecast) so I'm hoping it's just covering a very negative outlook for those days lol.
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J2R wrote:
I think a lot of SkiWelt is pretty low, is it not, @buchanan101, and as such will have suffered when the precipitation fell mainly as rain? I'm hoping Mayrhofen will be somewhat better. Not expecting miracles, though.


Oh yes. Top is 1700m(?). Ellmau is actually higher than Mayrhofen (820m v 650m(?)) but most Mayrhofen skiing above 1500m.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
While trying to cook up weekend plans I stumbled across some old photos from 2014 - when the south got something like 500% of their normal snowfall - which got me reflecting. Is this their first really big winter since then?

This was Obertilliach back then...



With 194cm skis!













Some of the hardest and most consistent snowfall I've experienced in Europe. Would be nice if it were to repeat...
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@clarky999, great photos. It’s hard to imagine after the last couple of seasons!
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I think I've at last got the hang of these weather forecasts: if they say it going to snow, it doesn't. If the say it won't snow, it does.
Like today. It's snowing, Been snowing hard since first light. But all forecasts I look at say it won't snow today (meteofrance), or won't snow till this afternoon (meteoblue,), and even then not much.
Brilliant! snowHead
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