@scotspikey, you mean from 10/11 February. Certainly colder than it has been. Not sure it’s deep cold, but should bring some snow to Scottish mountains.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
As modeled there would be some snow in the highlands of northern England and Wales as well. Maybe even a dusting atop the hill country in Ireland. Since the storm track is fairly far north, some rain would be interspersed between periods of snow. Temperatures look below average in the 7-10 period as currently modeled, but the airmass is more of a modified polar airmass than arctic.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Vibe is best for the Northern and Western Alps in the long term, with an ever present +NAO zonal flow and the potential for European ridging possible too. Potential for a little bit of shakeup in late Feb/earlyish March, but don’t hold your breath.
@scotspikey, there is a fairly detailed description of the upcoming weather for the British Isles here https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/low-pressure-system-cold-advection-uk-mk/ . Some snow for the high ground in Scotland and northern England. Strong winds too, though that is hardly unusual in the Highlands. Scottish winter mountaineering is a fairly singular experience
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@Jellybeans1000, if we had been holding our breath waiting for a change in the atmospheric circulation we would have keeled over long ago
It looks like the Alps will be straddling the jetstream as a progression of low amplitude waves pass mostly west to east. That puts the storm track into northern Europe, but a succession of trailing cold fronts should impact the alpine. As @nozawaonsen has repeatedly mentioned, differences in the jet evolution between the GFS, CMC, and ECMWF affect how strong the modeled fronts are when they reach the mountains and how significantly the temperature oscillates between storms.
Right now I would favor the northern French Alps and western Swiss Alps for the most significant precipitation in the 5-10 day period. The flatlands of Germany, Poland, Denmark, and Sweden could also potentially see some snow - rare this year - in this upcoming moist and cool (not cold) pattern.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@munich_irish, cheers, very interesting.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@altaski8, nice to have you back.
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Absolutely terrible around Selva today. Just wish dumb and dumber had told more people how awful this season has been because there's a few too many people here having an absolute whale of a time.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
@Snow Hound, presume they’ve also got that awful Italian wine and food there too?
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Crocuses are out !
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen wrote:
@altaski8, nice to have you back.
Thanks!
But I didn't go anywhere.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Good to see snow already making a fightback in Obertauern!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@davidof, I should have put a time-lapse on the patio as it's going so quickly!
And just for reference to others, I'm on a S facing slope so it's not quite doom and gloom, but should imagine what pistes you can ski on due to the wind are reminiscent of late March.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Wettering Vorarlberg warning that the Achterbahnfahrt (roller coaster ride) is set to continue with gusts reaching 170kmh over night in the mountains as the cold front arrives. Fun if you are camping out!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I love the Dolomites in dry, sunny weather. It is a must-ski region in Europe. I have been recommending Sella Ronda-connected towns as well as smaller, cheaper areas accessible from Venice in other threads.
Incidentally, the conditions are also wonderful in the Netherlands today. People seem to be having a fantastic time on the slopes. And they serve wine there too.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Mon 3-02-20 14:08; edited 1 time in total
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
Good to see snow already making a fightback in Obertauern!
Yeah on the Dachstein too and elsewhere in eastern Austria. It matches guidance well. Snow levels should rise briefly overnight ahead of the front, before crashing early tomorrow.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Weathercam wrote:
@davidof, I should have put a time-lapse on the patio as it's going so quickly!
And just for reference to others, I'm on a S facing slope so it's not quite doom and gloom, but should imagine what pistes you can ski on due to the wind are reminiscent of late March.
we need a top up NOW! but there doesn't seem to be much this far south before next week.
Checking the webcams its currently chucking it down on the schattberg in Saalbach and its begining to slow lightly in the zillertal areas aswell so the storm has begun right on time.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
enduroaid wrote:
Checking the webcams its currently chucking it down on the schattberg in Saalbach and its begining to slow lightly in the zillertal areas aswell so the storm has begun right on time.
The slug of precipitation currently centered around southern Germany and Austria is not directly associated with the cold front that will deliver significant snow throughout the northern Alps tomorrow. That front is currently near the northern French coast (visible on satellite and radar) and will move southeastward this evening.
Slight ridging out ahead of the cold front and a little bit of dynamic cooling are causing some snow above apprx. 2000m in parts of eastern Austria. The thermal boundary is draped NW to SE, so the eastern part of the alpine range is coldest right now. But the snow level in this area is forecast to briefly rise late this evening - above most of the summits - in response to the southwesterly flow ahead of the front.
Here is an illustration of why it is currently snowing at comparatively lower elevations in eastern Austria than elsewhere in the range. Why snow levels in this area will rise over the next 12 hours or so is also depicted.
The images show low-res. 3-hr cumulative precipitation and 850mb (~1500m) temperatures from the GFS model. The image on the left is valid at 14UTC today, and the image on the right is 02UTC tomorrow.
The orientation of the pseudo stationary front combined with dynamic cooling are causing a slight drop in temperatures in eastern Austria (left). As a low pressure center traverses Germany from the NW, mid-level winds out of the SW in advance of the associated cold front will cause warming ahead of the front (right).
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
And here it is in action at Obertauern 1735m asl.
This morning.
This afternoon.
[Edit] This evening.
Come on you snow!!
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Mon 3-02-20 18:14; edited 1 time in total
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Snow Hound, presume they’ve also got that awful Italian wine and food there too?
Indeed they do but it's the combination of German efficiency and Italian hospitality that I find most annoying. Anyway sorry good people, back to the weather...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
12z GFS pushes in snow across the northern Alps on 11 February (possibly arriving late on 10 February as rain in the west, before temperatures drop).
And then again on the night of 12/13 February.
As currently modelled that would be 30-40cms for the northern side of the Alps (on top of snowfall tonight and tomorrow), but it’s a way out and pretty finely balanced.
Timing will be crucial...
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
It looks like snow levels dropped to around 800m this afternoon in the Hallstatt - Bad Mitterndorf area! The higher elevations around there are going to have a great base for the powder that comes Tue. - early Wed.
The extreme NW part of Styria and extreme southern part of Upper Austria have an excellent snow microclimate.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Most of the automated online forecasts appear to use a 10:1 liquid to snow ratio when estimating snow accumulations. I dislike these snow algorithms and I think they tend to generally overestimate snow accumulations, but I think they might be slightly underestimating the post-frontal accumulations late Tue into early Wed in the favored nordstau areas. The reason being is that during this time, the best vertical lift looks to intersect the ideal temperature range for dendrite growth (-12°C to -18°C). This might lead to higher ratios. However, strong winds can negate this effect somewhat by breaking up the crystals. Hopefully the winds subside somewhat and the moisture/snow overperforms.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Still very hot in parts of Europe.
Not even freezing at night at the ~2500m summits in Bulgaria.
It has been +15c at ~1000m in parts of Eastern Europe.
Colder temps and snow on the way this week.
Back to melty weather next week.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Whitegold, Great news , so nice and warm for half term brilliant , the wife will be really happy .
Let’s hope your right don’t want you to disappoint me .
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
ECM 12z just out and lines up with GFS in a cooler spell 11/12 February after the warm and sunny conditions this weekend.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
The 12z GFS was a slight step back from 06z - marginally more of a glancing blow - but still a pretty good run. But fluctuations of this magnitude are really just noise - well within the ensemble envelope. The ECM and CMC look similar. The NW Alps continue to be targeted. The southern Alps need a deeper trough. The main negative to the upcoming pattern is the continued above normal temperatures for most of mainland western Europe.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen, big style, and today was just apparently a mere indication of tomorrow’s excess if locals are to be believed. Cheers Noza Re Obertauern as per above.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
It was +10c at midnight in Bansko village (Bulgaria) at 1000m today.
In deepest winter.
Pretty much unprecedented weather at the moment.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Whitegold wrote:
It was +10c at midnight in Bansko village (Bulgaria) at 1000m today.
In deepest winter.
Pretty much unprecedented weather at the moment.
You can always find instantaneous temperature extremes somewhere in the world. More telling are longer-term temperature averages...monthly, seasonal etc.
This winter has been warmer than average throughout almost all of Europe, but it has not been extreme, on average.
The past few days were warm in Bansko. But Wed - Sat will be below average.
And 10°C isn't very extreme, even in the middle of an early February night.
The good news from the EC monthly is the jetstream going south of Scandinavia the next two weeks. It will give much more percipitation in the Northern Alps. The bad news is that the two last week of February is prognosed like the January with warm and dry. The whole continent will be warmer than the average for the next four weeks. It is all about the jet stream! Looking at Ec 12 and EC 00 operational, the EC operational coming in this morning has much heavier hits towards the northern Alps. Could give storm after storm from the 9th and onwards. Good news for the northern Alps, less percipitation for the southern Alps.
The good news from the EC monthly is the jetstream going south of Scandinavia the next two weeks. It will give much more percipitation in the Northern Alps. The bad news is that the two last week of February is prognosed like the January with warm and dry. The whole continent will be warmer than the average for the next four weeks. It is all about the jet stream! Looking at Ec 12 and EC 00 operational, the EC operational coming in this morning has much heavier hits towards the northern Alps. Could give storm after storm from the 9th and onwards. Good news for the northern Alps, less percipitation for the southern Alps.
This is great news for HT, piste skiers ... a spell of cold and snowy weather around 12-13 February followed by dry and stable conditions. Heaven. Shades at the ready.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@nozawaonsen, friend in Val just saw that video and said "Only lift running is funicular to Bellevarde so we went up there. Weather exactly like that so we came straight back down on it.!!"
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
Here in Obertauern, Captain Oats has left the hotel, he said, “I may be a while”
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
wow, just wow!!!