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The All New 13/14 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I so want to take a screenshot of the SnowForecast prediction for this weekend (yes, yes I know) for Val d'Isere. I want to remain excited for just a little while before it peters out to zero or rain on Friday...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
HoneyBunny, The "Pub Run" came good !1 wink

Here's hoping that stays !
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Alex A, the "pub run" doesn't start coming out for another 25 minutes.
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nozawaonsen, I thought it was the 18z one?!
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Isn't 18z published around midnight?
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Alex A, it is. But the 18z only started coming out at 2130z. Snowforecast updates to the 18z some time early morning.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
gangstarrrrr, ah that will explain my confusion ! Thought i was being clever and I got it all wrong ! lol
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
A quick glance at the unfolding 18z and it isn't looking too bad for snow in the Alps on Sunday and Monday.
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It's snowmageddon according to the 18z... A good two feet for higher areas in the western alps. I think France is much nailed on for something reasonable now. Seems less certain for Austria and the east, not least because of borderline temperatures.

I'm happy about all the snow, but...I also wanted some sun for my upcoming ski week...Can somebody who's in the loop have a word, please?
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Can someone post a link or a screenshot of this weekend's forecast? I am an American newbie and need to decide where to head on Friday-Monday.
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We can wish . . .

You see: i believe in Father Christmas and the Tooth Fairy Smile
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Temperatures remain tricky. This morning's GFS doesn't really show a substantial cool down below seasonal average, but it certainly looks cooler than recently. That said snow could fall as rain in the western Alps up to 2000m at times if that were to verify.

The most snow looks like falling on the Swiss Italian border, although that is likely to shift back and forth further over the next few days.



Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 19-03-14 15:25; edited 1 time in total
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
After another 36 hours of mild air and a deluge tomorrow over the Lake District, the cooler air arrives Thursday afternoon with snow showers falling hopefully over the following 3 days down to 2000'. Prospects for fresh snow skiing on Sunday ? May be more digging to do however!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
ECM has temperatures across the Alps turning cooler than seasonal average from Monday.



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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
There seems to be lots of uncertainty between the forecast models for Sunday/Monday onwards? e.g. for Austria, GFS nothing and remaining mild, ECMWF cold (and snow?), ZAMG (bergfex) megadump???
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

There seems to be lots of uncertainty

which is very good news at the moment, looking at some of the models. Chamonix Meteo still optimistic about snow/rain levels but emphasizes how uncertain the outlook is.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I loving the conditions at the moment, riding around on soft snow in a hoody with hardly anyone else around. Whats not to like, best part of the season so far Very Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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06z has swung things back towards cold and snowy for much of the Alps. Not got a huge amount of ensemble support. Keep the faith.
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eddiethebus, the conditions at the moment are great, couldn't agree more. I've been loving the warm sunshine and I like soft snow. But my 2 year old grandson is arriving tomorrow and I really don't want him to get heavily rained upon for days on end.
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nozawaonsen, I'm trying to get too excited .. but the possibility of 75-ish cms of snow in Val d'Isere this weekend .. .. Very Happy Very Happy

Please let that one pan out!!
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HoneyBunny wrote:
nozawaonsen, I'm trying to get too excited .. but the possibility of 75-ish cms of snow in Val d'Isere this weekend .. .. Very Happy Very Happy

Please let that one pan out!!


+1 snowHead
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Okay noob question here, is potentially 75cm of snow this weekend a good or bad thing for a low intermediate level skier with minimal off piste experience/skills. Not sure whether to be hopeful or not! I fully understand forecast could change anyway... Puzzled
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
unway007, they will do their best to bash the main intermediate / beginner pistes at night, but if it continues to snows as forecast throughout the day then bashing does not take place and they rely on traffic of skiers to piste it.

Other concerns are that they will keep those lifts shut that give access to potentially dangerous areas away from the piste.

The main issue is that of viz as many people do not like skiing when it snows (here we go again) rolling eyes

I've been keeping a record of how snow- forecast changes from one day to another

This was the forecast issued on the 16th


and this was the latest today, as you can see quite a dramatic difference.


More images from other days here should you so wish to view them/see the pattern.
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A good explanation on here on what's going on http://wepowder.com/weblog/5158/PA%2323-up-to-150-cm-of-freshies

Not good reading as I want the snow to the east, but days away yet so all up for change.
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waynos, that's some good reading Cool
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looks like gfs has pulled things a bit more to the east and now more in line with austrian zamg, at least for Schladming. all things still crossed.
Schladming-ish gfs
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
keeping the faith for this weekend and a return to seasonal temperatures aferwards!!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
whose broken the GFS ensembles, stuck on the 00z run for me?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Action seemed to have moved to the East. Little snow was forecast East of Innsbruck due to the jet stream not reaching any further.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Awwww predicted snow depths have dropped quite a lot for Val d'Isere. I KNEW this would happen, mehhhh, someone change the wind direction!!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
kitenski wrote:
whose broken the GFS ensembles, stuck on the 00z run for me?


+1
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

whose broken the GFS ensembles, stuck on the 00z run for me?


Don't complain. It's a good one.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
HoneyBunny,

Forget about Snow depths the Haute Tarentaise is going to get whacked from Saturday night onwards , cold temps and big falls are on there way at least till Monday night , I'm supposed to be on my annual Ski touring trip next week , fancy I may end up skiing the trees instead .

Wonder when the first complaining about the weather not being warm and sunny enough will be .
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Won't hear any complaints from me, bring on the cold, dumping snow, poor visibility and everyone being put off coming out and ruining the fresh snow for me Wink
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Rob Mackley wrote:
HoneyBunny,

Forget about Snow depths the Haute Tarentaise is going to get whacked from Saturday night onwards , cold temps and big falls are on there way at least till Monday night , I'm supposed to be on my annual Ski touring trip next week , fancy I may end up skiing the trees instead .

Wonder when the first complaining about the weather not being warm and sunny enough will be .


Now I'm excited again!

No complaints from me about the snow Very Happy Very Happy snowHead snowHead
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This morning's GFS has the strongest snowfall in Austria, but still looks pretty good for most of the Alps (and Pyrenees).



Weathercam, like a huge number of forecast products snowforecast is derived from the GFS op run (the thick green one). It switches back and forth as the operational run does from run to run (though it lags the actual GFS output by several hours). The reason so many forecasts use GFS is because it provides much of it's data for free.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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Another good update here on what's arriving at the weekend, makes a jolly decent read. http://wepowder.com/weblog/5165/PA-%2323-Bam%21-Winter-is-back%21
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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sounds promising, am hoping for a decent dump to tempt me into a 5th April trip somewhere - Let it snow snowHead snowHead snowHead
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Heaving it down in the jura to about 1200 metres. Woop.
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Heaving it down here too, at 1550m in the Beaufortain. Everything now white and building. There was very little rain before it turned to snow. snowHead
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