 Poster: A snowHead
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Not looking good if you believe the GFS. Real snow potential is rapidly getting pushed into the Med.
18z sinks the Scandi high down over Europe, preventing anything from the Atlantic getting through. Hopefully things will change tomorrow, though I wouldn't be on it.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Cold coming in from the east. |
Agreed.
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| Snow from the Mediterranean. |
Maybe. I suspect that any precipitation will continue to get pushed south and won't hit most of the alps.
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In the longer timescale, the GFS winds up a massive mid latitude block (high pressure system), much like we had in the first two weeks of January. I hope there's plenty of water in the snow canon reservoirs...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I have to give up following this thread my high and low pressure can't cope with the ever changing predictions went to bed last night high as all was looking good for snow next week...now low again as you all seem a bit more negative about possibility. It'll be what it'll be...whatever we'll enjoy the week either way.
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| Quote: |
my high and low pressure can't cope with the ever changing predictions
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snowmam, 
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Very cold GFS 18z operational run from 16 February. And much drier than most of the recent output (though Italy and parts of Eastern and Southern Austria would not do too badly).
It's a cold outlier, there are some ensembles which go with it, though the majority don't.
Whether this is a new trend or whether we'll switch back to a more Atlantic influenced outlook tomorrow is unclear. Confidence in the outlook for early next week, let alone the end of the week, remains low.
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Id make a point of suggeting one doesnt take 18z too seriously. If the next 4 runs pop the potential, then yes, but 18z has a habit of not doing so well against its other runs.
Ensembles for 18z in the regions containing the alps make it a dry and cooler outlier...its close to the operational but most the other members go for wetter and warmer. Wait for 00z and 06z before writing next week off.
Trends important, trend has been since last weekend for snow next week, trend remains just tonights output is the driest of the wet scenarios we have seen. Ill miss the 00z.
Italy and Austria should do well next week off any feed I think, cant really see them losing out much, its the swiss and french that need it most so shall see how it plays. GFS FI....id tend to ignore it,
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Hard to see much consistency across the models this morning.
So given that all I'd really say is that I am less confident about how next week will play out (and I wasn't that confident before).
There isn't massive support for the GFS drier solution. But then again you have to give it some weight.
As JW_UK suggests we may be in a better position to get a stronger steer this evening (and of course we will be in an even better position next week!).
[edited to remove double post]
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Thu 10-02-11 8:46; edited 1 time in total
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GZS 0z continues to reduce the chances of significant precipitation. It looks likely that some snow will fall around the 15th, but this could well end up being negligible. The operational run shows another pulse of snow around the 20th, but there's not much in the way of ensemble support for that, so definitely not worth getting excited about.
In the longer timeframe (post 168 hours), the trend first picked up by yesterdays 18z run continues, which a large high pressure system building over the BI and France.
The ECM 0z run has abandoned the idea of an influential Scandi high and allows the Atlantic to steamroller through across the whole run. This isn't necessarily a bad thing as should at least be wet, but the freezing levels will probably make the lower resorts cry.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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philmes, You seem very negative every day. You definitely a glass half empty man. It's not looking like any huge dumps but a good chance of some snow to freshen up the pistes even if they won't cover all the off piste.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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garethjomo, just reporting it how I see it. 
Yes, there does look like being some snow for the Alps, starting as early as this weekend for Austria. Quantities are uncertain. The GFS doesn't show a great deal falling; some of the other models do.
After next week things are very unclear.
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You know it makes sense.
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Pay attention to the thick green line. This is the operational run, which is executed at a much higher resolution than the ensembles (all the other lines). What that link shows is c. 6cm of snow falling for some location over the next two weeks.
Because they are run at a lower resolution, the ensembles tend to overdo localized precipitation forecasts...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The only thing that is worse than no new snow is no new snow and flat light. At least it's been sunny for almost every day for the last 4 weeks.
The jet stream forecast shows it smashing seven buckets out of France next week. I will hang my hat on it bringing some major low pressure systems with associated epic dumps and the drought being well and truly over.
This is the first jet stream forecast to show it crossing central Europe, since early Jan. It could be wrong, but the drought won't end until it is right.
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Thu 10-02-11 9:57; edited 1 time in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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bar shaker, you are in Tignes ? how are things on the pistes,and are they still blowing the cannons at night,i,m there for half term,apologies if i,m wrong re location
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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philmes,
that green line is annoying!!! any chance of lots more changing or is the trend towards warmish and dryish setting now
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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phillip33, Sorry, I've been back for a week.
If you ask on the Tignes specific thread, Stewart Woodward and Rorie both live there so can report back. The webcams are still showing excellent cover.
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| phillip33 wrote: |
philmes,
that green line is annoying!!! any chance of lots more changing or is the trend towards warmish and dryish setting now |
Yeah, plenty of time for changes. Next week looks firmly defined, after that it's all up for grabs.
Also the GFS precipitation forecasts are notoriously crap 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| philmes wrote: |
| phillip33 wrote: |
philmes,
that green line is annoying!!! any chance of lots more changing or is the trend towards warmish and dryish setting now |
Yeah, plenty of time for changes. Next week looks firmly defined, after that it's all up for grabs.
Also the GFS precipitation forecasts are notoriously crap |
lets hope there crap and it dumps big time
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| Quote: |
The only thing that is worse than no new snow is no new snow and flat light.
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Wrong. Rain would be worse. Which is what Meteo France forecasting for early next week (see "tendances jours suivants" on the all-France forecast on their home page). Thankfully I find Meteo France to be almost always wrong.  Chamonix not forecasting rain but possibly foehn for Tuesday. That's all we need!
But they have no confidence in their forecast and perhaps the best thing about the current outlook is that it is very uncertain.
For some days at the very least there seems to be no chance of any artificial snow except at the kind of high altitudes they don't normally put cannons.
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| garethjomo wrote: |
| philmes, You seem very negative every day. You definitely a glass half empty man. It's not looking like any huge dumps but a good chance of some snow to freshen up the pistes even if they won't cover all the off piste. |
I think he is telling it like it is, not much sign of any significant snow next week, I'd prefer realism to rose tinted glasses any day.
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pam w, I suspect they are right this time. The jet stream arcs down to North Africa before bending up and passing over France, on Tuesday. By Thursday, it is hitting the UK and arcing down across central France with very high strength.
It may get warm for a couple of days but it will be a sea change in France's weather by the end of the week.
The Pyrenees will be getting the first of their equinox dumps from this lot, the Alps by the weekend.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I think the difference in resorts in France will be sigificant. Some could be looking at no snow at all in next 7 days. Whereas others (more southerly) could get a covering. But as some others have said. I think the chance of a huge dump has gone. Hope that's not through too rose tinted specs!!
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| pam w wrote: |
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come the 26th march
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 that's almost 6 weeks away. We don't know what it's going to do next week; worrying about the other end of the season really is a waste of life. |
Yes your totally right, how long is it since the alps has seen snow again.... was it 5 weeks now? rest my case.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Crispyapplepie, I don't *think* Meribel has ever shut early, and you have the north facing Courchevel bowls closeby, the Meribel Winter season is 4 Dec 10 to 29 April 11, I'd expect lifts to run there until the 29th April, unless there really is no new snow between now and then!
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Can some one just pm me when snow arrives - save me getting repeatedly disappointed when I come to look in here - cheers.
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You know it makes sense.
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06z GFS continues where the 00z left off. Small amounts of precipitation followed by the Azores high ridging north and building over northern France and the British Isles.
The Austrian resorts look like getting a decent fall over the weekend, perhaps 10cm locally.
Most of the French alps look like getting nothing more than a dusting in the next ten days.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| philmes wrote: |
06z GFS continues where the 00z left off. Small amounts of precipitation followed by the Azores high ridging north and building over northern France and the British Isles.
The Austrian resorts look like getting a decent fall over the weekend, perhaps 10cm locally.
Most of the French alps look like getting nothing more than a dusting in the next ten days. |
philmes, http://www.ski-finder.co.uk/grab_gfs.php?lat=45&lon=6
as you mentioned earlier the green line being important, what about that jump around the 15th,any good?
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Poster: A snowHead
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| phillip33 wrote: |
as you mentioned earlier the green line being important, what about that jump around the 15th,any good? |
Shows promise, if it's still there on the 13th and 14th it may result in some precipitation!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Snow potential on 16/17th here in Valloire, I think we may pick up something from the south/south east then....
TBH despite the doom and gloom at the bottom (1500m) there is 30 cm of snow which is a little less than usual, but not massively so, at 2500m there is about 80-90 cm, about half of usual but its not a disaster and above the 1800m mark the cannons are making snow at night. Yes the runs in the sun need some more, but its not pack up your bags time quite yet.... Off Piste... well theres not much of that unless you want to walk a bit. Let hope the indications for the 16/17 build up to something nice
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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philmes,
i thought they looked good (ie lots of green),but i dont really understand them as well as you,but there looks like something coming,and as you said its all localised,and we know that that can change dramatically especially that far out, we will know on the day or the day after,i,m a bit more confident than you nothing personal,
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12Z GFS rolling out now. The band of precipitation moving across France and into the Alps on Monday/Tuesday is more organised, with consequently higher precipitation totals. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the run pans out - no significant synoptic changes yet.
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i,m all crossed,let us knowphilmes,
thanks
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GFS sticks with the cold (very cold in this run) but dry theme for the week after next with high pressure to the west blocking the Atlantic. Not bad, but not especially good either.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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A certain weather forecast site is predicting snow all next week for the 3 valleys area....
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