The all new 11/12 Weather Outlook thread

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I wouldn't be planning a trip quite yet, but the ECM certainly produced a pretty cold run this evening, which would certainly open up the potential for snow over the UK in about a week's time.

The models have been chopping for at least a week though so I'd be pretty wary of putting any faith in it. That said GFS 12z wasn't bad this evening either (though not as strong as the ECM).

Interestingly ECM would also push low pressure into the Mediterranean which would be interesting for the southern Alps. Again you'd want to see this being mapped pretty firmly over the next couple of days before focussing on it too much.

Still looks good for possibly significant snow (and strong winds) in the northern Alps at the end of this week.

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

Off to 3 valleys next sunday and been watching this excellent thread for a while. Hoping for a significant dump around then to freshen things up, the models seem to say its a possibility. Nothing better than snow laden trees and a bit of fresh powder to practice in....hopefully followed by a few days of sun! Everything crossed!

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Ricklovesthepowder, I have no idea. But I do know that kitenski won't be able to enjoy it if the snow does fall in prodigious quantities as he'll be in Japan enjoying God knows how much snow...

After all it is free

rob@rar, Ricklovesthepowder, no doubt that will happen, hopefully there will be more snow in Japan than the Pennines Wink

Countryfile week ahead forecast is calling for some snow by Friday.......

And wouldn't it be great as I no longer work Fridays anymore! Please bring snow on Friday so I can go and play somewhere!

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The pop up ads on Meteo France are getting more and more annoying. Evil or Very Mad

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End of the week continues to look interesting.

There is a likelihood of heavy snow arriving in the northern Alps from Thursday for several days.

In terms of quantities at the upper end Bergfex is suggesting nearly 1.5m of fresh snow Thursday through Saturday in the Arlberg with strong winds. I wouldn't take that actual figure too seriously, but it would once again raise the possibility of disruption. But there is plenty of time for the detail to shift around.

In the UK the possibility if not probability of snow at the end of the week remains.

snow reports

Here's an idea of how it might play out from WRF.

- Tuesday 17 January 1800, light snow in parts of Austria.
- Thursday 19 January 0900, snow across the northern Alps, heavy in the Arlberg.
- Friday 20 January 0000, snow across the northern Alps, heavy in the western Alps.

06z GFS continues the snow through Saturday, brings another band across Sunday and has light snow across Austria on Monday.

I'm new to the weather models, could any of the pros predict when Scotland is likely to have a chance of snow?

Got 40 days (not that I'm counting) until I'm off to mayrhofen so trying to stop looking at how much snow the alps are getting and get some time on snow in Scotland

You know it makes sense.

I'd imagine there should be some snow in the Scottish mountains from midweek. Not sure it will be huge, but should be enough to freshen things up a bit.

Also this week some much needed snow on the way in the US.

Open Snow Long-Term Forecast.

Bleak Present, Brighter Future.

Here are some ensembles.

Les Deux Alpes.

Chamonix.

The Arlberg.

Hintertux.

Sestriere.

Folgaria.

Zermatt.

Cairngorm.

Eastern Pyrenees.

Bad Gastein.

Still looks like heavy snow for the end of the week in the northern Alps (pushing across the French/Italian border). Given it's still several days away it could yet go up or down.

The week after, 23 January onwards, is starting to look really rather cold.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

nozawaonsen, Cheers for the update. When you say heavy snow in the northern alps by weekend, where exactly do you mean?

A snowHead

A snowHead

Ricklovesthepowder, north of the Alpine divide.

Here's a chart base on 12z GFS which gives a good idea of spread.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC_05Grad/192_24.gif

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

ANY snow in line for the Southern Alps?

Artesina and surrounds?

PLEEEEEASE?!?!

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nozawaonsen, Please can you post the link the the website for that picture above, thanks.

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adam.b, nothing in the next week. Possibilities in the last week of January.

12z GFS brought in some serious weather for this Saturday.

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Now I finally have a ski trip booked, and will be heading to Chamonix on the 29th Jan, can someone tell me the exact amount of snow fall, to the nearest mm I can expect between now and then please? wink

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MoodyFFS, 67.3mm of rain and no snow. Enjoy.

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Ricklovesthepowder, Here's the link the Nozmeister gave me - you can get ECM or GFS by looking und the "modeles" menu on the left.

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snow reports

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Both the 12zECM and 18zGFS evening runs were less keen on colder weather and snow. They still bring in substantial snow to the northern Alps at the end of the week, Thursday night through Sunday (possible light snow in the east on Monday), but not as much as some of the earlier runs. That could be a good thing all things considered. Neither of them were quite so bullish on deep cold next week, although it would still be cold. 18z GFS brought in another band of snow in the middle of next week.

That said there is still a lot of inconsistency run to run and model to model. So.

You know it makes sense.

Snowing again around Schladming and I think to the East in Austria, only light stuff forecast, though that was the case last weekend and we had lots of snow. Was a cold day in Austria yesterday, -24 at St Michael, Salzburgerland, http://www.wetter.at/wetter/news/Dienstag-beschert-dem-Osten-Schnee/52877606 and Vienna received first snow of the winter.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Similar pattern to last night this morning.

In the short term:

- Snow arriving Thursday evening and lasting through Sunday. Probably strongest Friday with fairly strong winds.

- Temperatures rising above average tomorrow and into Thursday, dropping sharply on Friday.

- From Saturday there is a real spread in the ensembles and between each model run, so significant uncertainty.

The snow at the end of the week looks substantial in places, but it does not at this stage look like it will be too disruptive.

A snowHead

Currently looks like two distinct bands of snow.

19/20 January followed by 21/22 January.

It's not quite clear at this stage quite how far it will makes its way down into the Savoie (including the Vanoise and Tarentaise, it will, but maybe not as much as elsewhere), but looks fairly strong a little to the north, then across the central and eastern Alps.

Weight of accumulated snowfall between now and next Tuesday

A snowHead

nozawaonsen, Looks from the map like the Dolomites may just catch a bit of the second wave? Snow forecast has18 cm for Cortina then but ?ECM based bergfex is much meaner

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pjd, that map is based on the 06z GFS (snowforecast.com updates to that around 1500). Bergfex is actually based on ZAMG, but I suspect that may not be too dissimilar from the ECM modeling. Either way there is a lot of uncertainty between the models at present. The main snow looks set to hit the northern Alps, how much pushes down further south is unclear. Might be worth keeping an eye on WRF as we get closer (enough acronyms!).

Snow arriving in the western US! Shouldn't be rare, but has been this season.

The Colorado Daily Snow

And the PNW is picking up even more.

Wednesday Snow Storm

Utah too.

Locked and Loaded

Even Tahoe which has had exceptionally dry weather this season.

Chances of snow in the UK at the end of the week outside of Scottish mountains diminishing, if not disappearing.

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Another good little piece from the Lawinenwarndienst Tirol blog.

Deutliche Setzung, aber auch Schneebrettlawinen und weiterhin Gleitschneelawinen

- In spite of Arctic temperatures the snowpack has reduced by 20-40% since 09 January.
- Grooves in the snow give the appearance of being caused by rain or warm temperatures (see the second photo), but is actually a result of the rapid snowfall in the previous 10 days creating such potential for settling.
- Gleitschneelawinen or full depth slides remain a problem. When they will release is unpredictable. Warm weather can trigger them, but they have still been observed during the recent cold period. Avoid areas beneath glide cracks.

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Met Office alerts out for Scotland on Thursday.

"Frequent and occasionally heavy snow showers are likely across the north and northwest of Scotland on Thursday, particularly on high ground. Accumulations of locally 5 to 10 cm are possible on ground above about 150m, with a risk of as much as 15 cm above around 300m."

And an interesting comment on the 6 to 15 day forecast which has just been updated.

"There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts."

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Arno, frustrating.

Met Office just updated their extended outlook.

"UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 2012"

Still "very uncertain". But interesting.

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all this snow due in Utah is gonna make this week and next even longer till i can get out there!!!!

Utah Ski Weather forecast discussion. Extraordinary that it should be the first significant storm of winter.

"16 January 2012 at 9:39pm
Temperatures are dropping with today's passage of a cold front and overnight lows in the mountains are expected to reach negative values tonight. Sunny skies however for Tuesday, before the first significant winter storm of the season begins to affect northern and central Utah Wednesday afternoon.

This storm is bringing with it a very moist flow that may drop as much as 3 feet of snow in the mountains by the weekend. Expect the heaviest periods of snowfall to extend Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon with moderate winds in the 10-20 mph range."

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yeah been watching several sites, that one, wasatch wheater weenies, wasatch snow forecast and of course yourself!!! bring on the pow! 2 weeks like that and im sure im gonna have lots to play in

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The all new 11/12 Weather Outlook thread

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