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The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
On the latest GFS operational, freezing levels don't get much higher than 1800m for the next couple of weeks. You'd probably see the snowline at around 1400-1500m depending on the intensity of any precipitation.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Well if no snow we can always adapt to make it more interesting wink


http://youtube.com/v/hnh0sEwJjf0&feature=player_embedded#
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
This video is making me go blind.
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WTF! Where's the cold gone....... Give it back please! Shock
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
So much sexier on a board than on skis!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
Laughing the guy in orange at 0.30 desperately trying to get his gloves off and camera out


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Wed 9-02-11 14:12; edited 1 time in total
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Frosty the Snowman wrote:
So much sexier on a board than on skis!


So true....



Wait till they all sit down and get cold bums..
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Bartezki, thanks for posting that instructional video. The specialist gear the young women were wearing makes observing the biomechanics of snowsports very easy indeed.
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lightningdan, it's not the video making you go blind...
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shoogly wrote:
lightningdan, it's not the video making you go blind...


Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
On the question of freezing levels and low levels.

The mean freezing level looks to be around 1500m (plus or minus) from around 14 January. Possibly a couple of degrees cooler further east. This would put the snow line at about 1200m plus depending (as philmes says) on the amount of rain or snow. Possibly a little lower in the Austrian Alps (nearer 1000m+). And cooling more strongly in the Austrian Alps during half term.

The detail will shift and certainly I would have little confidence if any in how things might shape up beyond the end of next week.

The trend for cooling temperatures remains. The trend for wetter weather next week remains.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Well 1 thing is for sure come the 26th march if this weather hasnt dropped any snow it looks like ill be mountain biking in Meribel not skiing. Sad
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Can someone describe the video, in detail, as my iPhone has deemed me too young to watch!! Embarassed
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
RetroBod, Laughing how old are you?

There's loads of hot girls skiing and boarding semi naked - gutted you cant see it
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:

come the 26th march

Puzzled that's almost 6 weeks away. We don't know what it's going to do next week; worrying about the other end of the season really is a waste of life.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
pam w, aw, he's probs only getting one trip, not like lucky you living out there Wink
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Shimmy Alcott wrote:
RetroBod, Laughing how old are you?

• Old enough to watch it
• Too old to work the settings on my iPhone
• But not too old for it to be illegal/sad

lol
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
RetroBod, Laughing I'm very impressed with the inclusion of bullet points - techy credits for you
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Crispyapplepie wrote:
Well 1 thing is for sure come the 26th march if this weather hasnt dropped any snow it looks like ill be mountain biking in Meribel not skiing. Sad



I would cancel now if I was you and go surfing instead....................
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Am I correct in thinking that the new moon is Friday 18th? If so and the old locals are right it could make for an interesting half term changeover day Twisted Evil
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tobymory wrote:
Am I correct in thinking that the new moon is Friday 18th? If so and the old locals are right it could make for an interesting half term changeover day Twisted Evil


Is that when all the mountain wolves turn into people Puzzled It could make it even busier than usual I suppose.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:

he's probs only getting one trip

absolutely, but there is still no relationship worth worrying about between weather now and weather in 6 weeks. As I demonstrated by posting photos on the "two centuries without a flake in the French alps" thread there is a lot MORE snow now than there was in January 2007, yet March 2007 was fine.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Looks a lot like another week to go before the prospect of any significant snowfall - southern French Alps possibly excluded Confused
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red 27, did you say Southern Alps Madeye-Smiley I'm off to Puy St Vincent on Sunday snowHead

Heres hoping.

The last month has been a mare hasnt it.

I know we tend to get a High Pressure block most seasons but this seems to have gone on for too long now with one rain band after another being snuffed out well before the Alps and although temperature trends have been easier to spot the precipitation has been hard to pin down even right up to the last couple of days.

FL still sees marginal but at 1600m - 2750m PSV should be OK hopefully.

God I hope it doesnt fall as rain on the lower slopes ..........I reeeaaalllyy hate skiing in the rain.
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red 27,

interesting that the GFS ensembles ive seen are beginning to look a liitle less promising tonight(please bear in mind there are far more knowledgeble than me on this thread and i,m going by how steep they are !!!!!!) i think NOZA has said before that its a worry when they start to slide back to the next day,now they seem to be getting smaller, but as said i,m a real novice here and i,m sure when the big players come back in they will allay our fears,if not red 27 does the southern french alps include Valdisere,told you my knowledge is very simple Shocked
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Quote:

The last month has been a mare hasnt it

No, it's mostly been really pleasant! I can take a great deal of sunshine, blue skies and snow. There have been two small snowfalls in the last month, so we could do with some more, but local forecasts are for only minimal snowfall next week, with winds remaining in the SE.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
pam w wrote:
Quote:

The last month has been a mare hasnt it

No, it's mostly been really pleasant! I can take a great deal of sunshine, blue skies and snow. There have been two small snowfalls in the last month, so we could do with some more, but local forecasts are for only minimal snowfall next week, with winds remaining in the SE.
pam w,

which local forecasts? please pam
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
whoa whoa whoa whoa back up.

Mountain wolves? Turning into people? I'm intrigued, do elaborate Smile
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
phillip33, This is a pretty good 'local' forecast.... http://chamonix-meteo.com/bul/metPreMatEn.php
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:

which local forecasts?

the local forecasts on the notice board in the Tourist Office in Les Saisies. I'd imagine they are meteo france based, but I have no idea.

there's no precipitation in the Cham forecast as far as Monday.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
phillip33 wrote:
does the southern french alps include Valdisere,told you my knowledge is very simple Shocked


No - Montgenevre, Ser Che, Puy St V, L2A, that lot down there.

A week is a long way away though. There might be some dribs and drabs earlier - around the 14th - but not what one might call a 'Dump'


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Wed 9-02-11 21:22; edited 1 time in total
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The GFS is showing a trend for the precipitation moving across France to track south and fragment. Worth watching, unfortunately.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Yeh all seems a bit PT at mo. Not to panic but seems much warmer next week than initially promised.....doh!
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tobymory wrote:
Am I correct in thinking that the new moon is Friday 18th? If so and the old locals are right it could make for an interesting half term changeover day Twisted Evil


I doubt it, last new moon was 3rd Feb, which meand 18th is more likely to be nearer to a Full Moon.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Hells Bells, Laughing at least some things are fairly easily predicted....
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re snow agree its looking less likely for next week now,all the predictions are now what they are, just predictions,even the trends are changing, bloody weather so unpredictable dont care off to Valdisere ( 19th feb) snow is there and so is the beer happy days
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
[quote="phillip33"]
pam w wrote:
Quote:

The last month has been a mare hasnt it

No, it's mostly been really pleasant! I can take a great deal of sunshine, blue skies and snow. There have been two small snowfalls in the last month, so we could do with some more, but local forecasts are for only minimal snowfall next week, with winds remaining in the SE.
pam w,

Pam

I am partial to a lovely sunny days skiing as well ;-)preferably after a night of heavy snow Cool (how often does that happen for most one or two trip a season skiers Sad ) but for me I dont really get much as much of a buzz out of pootling around the pistes any more and the past few weeks has been decidedly below par for off piste.

As you often say, the forecasts have been very unpredictable when it comes to precipitation and slightly less so when it comes to FL,s even down to one or two days before.

Some freshies would be most welcome coming up to the busiest fortnight of the season.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Quote:

busiest fortnight

busiest month, round here. Yes, we could certainly do with some more snow. But the last month has certainly not been a "mare" and there are some SH reports of some good off piste expeditions too (very energetic ones....).
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Some shifts back and forth today, though no major change to the overall pattern. That it hasn't stuck to some of the stronger runs yesterday doesn't mean that it won't switch back on the next run.

It does mean it remains hard to have any real confidence in next week's weather. And the potential for snow in the first half of next week looks slightly less this evening.

Both GME/DWD and BOM show runs which would provide more snow earlier in next week around 14 and 15 February. BOM developing a nice low pressure in the Mediterranean. The point here is that there is still clearly no clear pattern for early next week. And snowy options remain.

12z FI sees some some very cold temperatures and potential for snow at the end of next week. But of course that is off in the distance...
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