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The all new 23/24 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I'm sorry, @Origen, is right about this season. A lot of people working some ski resorts have been laid off would still have liked at least a few weeks of actual snow on the ground to "save a bit of the season".
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@under a new name, Genoa Low delivering the goods for the Italian side of the Alpine Ridge .

Meanwhile I’ve skied Sainte Foy , Val , La Rosiere and La Thuile all of them have plenty of snow to see the season out so for me the season doesn’t need saving however no doubt I’d probably have a very different view if I ski the lower level Haute Savoie Resorts .
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@Origen, I was verynclear that it's from my point of view it's been fine. But quite disastrous below, say, 1,500m in the French Northern Alps.

And a bit of snow now isn't going to save anything.
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@Origen, for the third time, can you elaborate / substantiate your statement that "some people" on here are in denial of current conditions?

You are now talking about Christmas/ Feb heatwave etc, whereas your comment about denial made no reference to previous weather conditions, ie before the snow that has fallen in the last 4 days.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Sun 25-02-24 18:13; edited 1 time in total
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@davidof, totally take your point, but even if there was a huge snowfall last week down to low altitudes, I don't imagine anyone would really be rehired now?
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@polo, sorry, but you don't really want someone else to start slagging off others on a forum, or do you have shares in a popcorn company! Laughing Just go back and read some of the other threads. I was a bit miffed at conditions in Serre Chevalier end of January, but "others" seemed to take umbrage. Lets be honest here, thaw freeze cycle in a low resort in January is pretty rubbish. Ok, so above 2000m was ok, but that resort tops out at 2400 or so. And the off piste was just horrible! Again, I'm not going to point fingers, it's just not worth it.

But please keep on with your insights into the black art of weather chart interpretation on this thread, I for one miss Noza and read your posts avidly.
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Origen wrote:
@Astontech, still peak French hols so Italy better even setting weather aside. Poor cover in many lower French areas ( however much some people deny it) will make slopes with good cover even more crowded than usual.


Here's the "some people" quote I am curious about.....clearly referring to current conditions, as opposed to xmas, or any other part of the season.

It's a similar wait over on the PdS thread. I asked a direct question to a veiled "some people" statement. But the poster there can't back it up because what he said wasn't true.
Lot's of people say stuff that isn't true on forums, not a big deal or unexpected. But I feel worth pointing out occasionally.....I mostly only read/post on 2 threads ....so am not aware of the standard elsewhere.
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under a new name wrote:
@davidof, totally take your point, but even if there was a huge snowfall last week down to low altitudes, I don't imagine anyone would really be rehired now?


Some would, but it wouldn't really save their season. It would take some people off unemployment for a few weeks. The problem with being laid off is it eats into your pension contributions and your accumulated unemployment benefit so is a real PITA for seasonal workers who often have gaps between the winter and summer seasons they work. I agree that 25th February is a bit late but some of the affected areas would be open to the second half of March in a normal year.
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gixxerniknik wrote:
.....I was a bit miffed at conditions in Serre Chevalier end of January, but "others" seemed to take umbrage. Lets be honest here, thaw freeze cycle in a low resort in January is pretty rubbish. Ok, so above 2000m was ok, but that resort tops out at 2400 or so. And the off piste was just horrible! Again, I'm not going to point fingers, it's just not worth it.....


Actually think no-one disagreed with you, I certainly didn't, I even went back to the UK the week you were out as conditions that week were pretty dire Laughing

However you missed some good conditions the week before and since, you just had bad luck to be there a week that was so bad.

And that's what weather is, a total lottery.

I've never known forecasts be so changeable right up to the last minute and then be so wrong.

As for people saying it's all over etc etc, here that is certainly not the case for piste skiing and for tomorrow hopefully will see more fresh snow, and again mid-week.

The only sector that's struggling is cross-country skiing.

And we think that above 2,000 m there is above average snow-accumulations, and yes that could well be the new "norm" ?

But before snow-canons all the mid stations were around that altitude, as runs back to the resort were often sketchy.

But we were not complaining today Cool

More in the Serre thread.



Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Sun 25-02-24 19:33; edited 1 time in total
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@davidof, ah, yes, screws with pensions, good point. Indeed 2weeks still to go of high season.
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@Weathercam,
Quote:

I even went back to the UK the week you were out...


And there was me thinking you went back to the UK just to avoid me! Laughing Actually as I posted, I spent the whole week looking out for the local Snowhead just so I could meet you in person!

No, it wasn't you. I was just being honest about the conditions.

I do think I have unfinished business with the place though. I can see it would be absolutely amazing in more favorable conditions.

Is the season all over? I don't really think so or I've just wasted my hard earnt on another trip out in a couple of weeks! It won't go down in history as one of the better ones though. But who knows, I've been away end of March and had incredible conditions.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
The snow has begun (Italy).

First lift tomorrow.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Whitegold wrote:
The snow has begun (Italy).

First lift tomorrow.


Stannah?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Jäger wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
The snow has begun (Italy).

First lift tomorrow.


Stannah?


Under-rated post. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
More cold, snowy action next weekend?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@BobinCH,

I'm loving that graph as I'm out 9th March for a week, but in Haute Savoie. Have I got it right, dumps 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 11th, the blue lines?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@gixxerniknik, you should be here today snowHead

Can't actually decide what to do, as still many lifts closed and can't hear any blasting going on, meant to snow (lightly) most of the day.

Might go for a tourette up on this side of the valley, as the snow-plough has just been to clear our parking.

Webcam panning around the terrace will be out soon to clear a path for the mutts.

https://stylealtitude.com/serrechevalierweathercam.html
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@gixxerniknik, the lines are all over the place so means uncertainty at this moment.
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gixxerniknik wrote:
@BobinCH,

I'm loving that graph as I'm out 9th March for a week, but in Haute Savoie. Have I got it right, dumps 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 11th, the blue lines?


3rd of March looks like a good chance of action looking at the noise on the precip lines and alignment on the temp line. The rest is very speculative this far out. Regarding the lines:

The three lines we need to pay particular interest to: The first one being the bold red line which runs straight across the graph, this shows us what the average temperature for this time of year is, the second line we need to pay close attention to is the white line. This line gives us a mean of all the other lines, ensemble members, on the graph. The third and final line I’d like to mention is the solid green line, this line shows us the GFS Operational model which is what we would be viewing in Wetterzentrale as the pressure patterns chart.
All the other lines in the mix are perturbation members, they are run along with the GFS Operational but have slightly different starting data and are run at a much lower resolution. The closer all these lines are together the more accuracy we can have on them being correct
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That chart translates to something like this. I’d be pretty happy with that if I was arriving on the 9th
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Thanks @BobinCH, I'll keep watching!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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gixxerniknik wrote:
I'm loving that graph as I'm out 9th March for a week, but in Haute Savoie.


Where you heading for Gix?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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@ratkinsonuk, Val D'Isere this time, I figured higher is better.
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Ah, didn't realise VdI was in the Haute region
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@ratkinsonuk, it's not ...
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Knew I was being lied to NehNeh
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Geography was never my strong point, it never lasted past my options!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Check out the forecast accumulations for Abries, Ristolas and Prali, classic Retour d'Est

Copied across from Serre thread

As for the next couple of days there is a true Retour D'Est going on, no doubt resorts further North will claim that they will benefit from this, but you only have to look at the accumulations forecast for the stations in the Queyras to see.

Unfortunately for us in Serre we'll only get the scraps, and Montgenevre does look to do much better than us from this one.



Avvieux, only 20km as the crow flies on the other side of the Izoard



And then Abries 30km further into the Queyras



Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Tue 27-02-24 9:18; edited 2 times in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Bergfex at least showing more snow for much of the Alps this weekend, including some absurd numbers for parts of Aosta (though not La Thuile) and the Western Alps.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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As predicted -- last week -- a huge puke yesterday and today in Italy. Around 1-2ft above 1800m.

Like living in a snowglobe.

Feel bad for the civilians back at sealevel.

However, yet more biblical rain incoming tonight.

Below 1500-1800m, folks will need an umbrella.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Polo I know you post in respect of the entire Alps, but a week ago were you predicting much snow for the Dolomites? I’m here and it just keeps snowing at all altitudes. In the current 24 hours surely far more on the mountain that the 11cm predicted on various websites yesterday.

Without reading old posts, I’ve an inkling you were ‘correct’ Madeye-Smiley
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@Snow&skifan, hate quoting myself, but below is from Feb 16th....8-10 days out.....and it only got better for the SE after that as the secondary short wave became visible. It is interesting to read back 5-6 pages....I wasn't the only one initially expecting the north to benefit....but you know as the facts change (evolving patterns), so should opinions.

"it's a very possible evolution (southern alps doing well into end of week) as mentioned the angle of approach looks a little too far west initially, so pyrenees also would benefit. The flip side is the snowline will start high in the alps, sud foehn style....2000m+ along the north. Then the troughs start to disrupt against the remaining high pressure to the east, forcing a lot of ppn up from the med."

That same cut off low (remnants of the wobbly short wave) is currently stuck in the northern med.

Edited above to correct date, from page 47.
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@polo Thanks for all the information, it's very helpful. How to do you see Austria fairing out in the next period? The snow forecast doesn't look like much and it appears Italy will get a lot more.
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@LeLanternVert, am not planning to analyse this one run to run with 200 charts....but yes it looks very similar to last weeks event.

Here are 6 models for Sat night / Sun morning.....at first glance they look quite similar, but about 4 or 5 out of 6 are too far west for the north to do well initially.
So at the moment it does look like pyrenees, southern alps continue to get a lot of snow. Another sud foehn, 1800m+ snowline north, +2 to 8C at 1500m is possible, and showing up on some models.



But by Sunday afternoon (3rd) / into early Monday, a trough does seem to move across the north bringing much lower temps and snow.....so it may end well.....too early to say as it's not part of the main area of low pressure seen above. It's a small feature and therefore not easy to call this far out.

GFS next 8 days


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Tue 27-02-24 13:42; edited 1 time in total
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Shedloads of new snow in the far south of Trentino! Tiny Brentonico Ski reported 50cm of fresh from last night alone at 1200m... on top of the heavy falls at the end of last week.

It'll probably turn to rain at that altitude later today, but virtually everywhere in central Italy should have a great base to last the rest of the season now.

I'm at Rittner Horn north of Bolzano today, where the snow has been lighter but still plenty of powder to enjoy.
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@denfinella, excellent news after the heavy rain you previously experienced.
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polo, an interesting figure for north England there: do I see 153? Shocked
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@drporat, actually we've pretty much managed to avoid rain while skiing so far - though got very wet on Friday as the snow was very wet snow.

A whole load more looks likely for Italy next weekend, in similar sorts of places too.
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@Jonpim, with my magnifying glass out I think that's a 16 and an 8 side by side.....has updated to a 24 on the next run. Most of UK could be under a 400m FL over the weekend, or 0-4c at surface, maybe -4 up north
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My son sent this photo, glad I'm not skiing this week (or any week)

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