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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@sparkzter, Saturday looks like marking a milder spell with cold temperatures before and after. There should be a bit of snow midweek this week 10-20cm and next week looks a bit unsettled, unclear what that means for snowfall at this point though.
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Wrapping up warm is going to be key over the next week, though Saturday looks like offering a milder break.

The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Zermatt



Eastern Pyrenees

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@nozawaonsen,

Thanks a lot!
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Those charts look promising in terms of precipitation particularly as HT week is less than 4 weeks away - but as @nozawaonsen keeps reminding us ...
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Minion1980 wrote:
@kapt, I'm a bit confused by this post, are you saying conditions in Paradiski are poor?

By no means - just giving my v.brief experience so far of one area of LA. Just could not let comment about how good things were go without some qualification. Apologies really for posting here - poss. better on LA thread, but I saw comment here.
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kapt wrote:
Minion1980 wrote:
@kapt, I'm a bit confused by this post, are you saying conditions in Paradiski are poor?

By no means - just giving my v.brief experience so far of one area of LA. Just could not let comment about how good things were go without some qualification. Apologies really for posting here - poss. better on LA thread, but I saw comment here.
I didn't ski down to Vallandry last week, but surprised that you had those conditions. I skied to Arc 1600 and down as far as Villaroger and even on the lower pistes found good conditions, no stones, no ice.
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@rob@rar, On Saturday I reported how good everything was on the La Plagne thread, by yesterday I was reporting thin patches, and icy scrapy bits. It's still generally OK, but I would not claim "excellent" any more. We really need snow.
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RobinS wrote:
@rob@rar, On Saturday I reported how good everything was on the La Plagne thread, by yesterday I was reporting thin patches, and icy scrapy bits. It's still generally OK, but I would not claim "excellent" any more. We really need snow.
How widespread were the poor conditions? I appreciate that things can change quickly at busy intersections, or bits of piste where skiers struggle and scrape snow away as they slide down more sideways than forwards, but these tend to be isolated pitches rather than widespread.
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Not widespread, but in the course of a day we had to take avoiding action quite a lot of times to reduce the possibility of base damage. Also encountered a small number of comedically slippery sections of man made snow. Conditions are not poor, but not excellent either, and while it may be just the pistes we happened to ski, there does seem to have been a quite rapid change.
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@RobinS, thanks.
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Pds on meteoblue looking promising for the weekend and early part of next week. Snowfall accumulating from saturday onwards
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snow forecast look promising 6-9 days in 3 valleys.
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mk28 wrote:
snow forecast look promising 6-9 days in 3 valleys.


I think the next week looks ok for Tignes.Val as well. Some topping up snow showers middle of the week and then some more on Sunday/Monday. GFS has a big rain band pushing in from he Bay of Biscay across France which they suggest will bring a decent dumping.
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You know it makes sense.
Scotland got 10-20cm.

Glencoe, Nevis and Cairngorm are 10-40% open.
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Bulgaria due 50-150cm in the next week or so.

Good news for anyone headed out there.
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18z GFS has just produced an extremely cold run. If it came off you’d have a very cold and very snowy start to February. It will be an outlier, but interesting to see if there is any hint of something like this in tomorrow‘s output or whether this is just a one off...

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Any thoughts from the experts about possibly big falls again coming up for Austria? I’m off to St Anton on 3 February so will be following this with interest. It’s probably a good thing I’ve booked into a ski clinic for two days that week. A bit worried my skiing will turn to poo in fresh snow though. I usually seem to get ice, slush or rain for my trips so not very practiced in such conditions Very Happy
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Quote:

grahamt1980
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Posts: 79

Pds on meteoblue looking promising for the weekend and early part of next week. Snowfall accumulating from saturday onwards


I am off to Chatel on Tuesday night, it hasn't really stopped snowing for weeks it seems so I am hoping it stops so I can see where I am going next week. I used to spend my days on this site praying for snow before my January trip but the last three years have been fantastic.
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Forecast for Alpe d'Huez had snow from late afternoon.........it's been snowing since 10am!

Next week looks interesting on Meteociel & meteofrance, snow from Sunday all week. Will no doubt change later today!
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Snowing in la plagne and has been since 1pm
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Niagara Falls freezing up in the chilly US temps.

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Whitegold wrote:
Niagara Falls freezing up in the chilly US temps.



must have done what my willy does in the cold.
Shrink to about 99% of its original size.
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mheadbee wrote:


I am off to Chatel on Tuesday night, it hasn't really stopped snowing for weeks it seems so I am hoping it stops so I can see where I am going next week. I used to spend my days on this site praying for snow before my January trip but the last three years have been fantastic.


Not in Chatel it hasn’t been! Quite a while since fresh snow and generally dry and cold for the last couple of weeks. More to come next week though hopefully.
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Whitegold wrote:
Bulgaria due 50-150cm in the next week or so.

Good news for anyone headed out there.


Be very careful off piste - December was funny weather wise and most terrains while very skiable in terms of snow depth are 4/5 avalanche danger at present. I lost two friends there 10days ago. On piste would be epic.
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Blooming 'eck, where did that warmer weather come from? It was due to be Baltic on the 18.00 run and there is some much higher temps for the weekend
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@Whitegold, I was at Niagara Falls (on the Canadian side) in February a few years back and it was just like in your photo, amazing scene. I don't know what the temperature was but it was the coldest I've ever felt! After a while my camera stopped working because of the cold affecting the batteries, I had to take them out and put them in a pocket for a few minutes to warm them up.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Frosty the Snowman wrote:
Blooming 'eck, where did that warmer weather come from? It was due to be Baltic on the 18.00 run and there is some much higher temps for the weekend


Our resident expert spotted it on Monday Smile

nozawaonsen wrote:

Wrapping up warm is going to be key over the next week, though Saturday looks like offering a milder break.
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@nozawaonsen, @polo, @Jellybeans1000 what are your thoughts please on snowfall going into next week? Sunday/Monday look decent then...? GFS/wepowder are giving it the billy big b*ll*cks for midweek onwards but ECMWF seems less optimistic. Is that interpretation correct? Valais/Oberwallis CH is my area of interest.
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You know it makes sense.
@hd, looks like decent snow particularly in the NW on Sunday Monday. Currently GFS reloads for Wednesday into Thursday as well...
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@nozawaonsen, can you give me the link for the wetterzentrale site so I can put in Lattitude and longitude please. I'm daft, I cant work it out.
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mheadbee wrote:


I am off to Chatel on Tuesday night, it hasn't really stopped snowing for weeks


Dashed wrote:


Not in Chatel it hasn’t been! Quite a while since fresh snow...



You're both wide of the mark. The reality is somehere in the middle. Where do you get your information from?
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@scotspikey, try playing around with this.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=45.546558704453446&lon=6.698113207547173
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@nozawaonsen I got this for Madonna di Campiglio where I arrive Satuday.....



Which suggest snow, but not much correct?
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scotspikey, I'm off to Passo Tonale (near Madonna) on Saturday, so am in the same boat. All forecasts for snow seem to be being reduced and delayed, and there doesn't appear to have been any new snow there for weeks and weeks, so it's not looking good.
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@J2R, piste skiing will be fine bud. Was there a few years ago with less natural snow and it was good. Zero off piste available though.
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snoozeboy wrote:
mheadbee wrote:


I am off to Chatel on Tuesday night, it hasn't really stopped snowing for weeks


Dashed wrote:


Not in Chatel it hasn’t been! Quite a while since fresh snow...



You're both wide of the mark. The reality is somehere in the middle. Where do you get your information from?


Hmm, really? Decent fall around 8-9th on Jan (30+cm on the hill), a touch more around 17th (but not much - 10cm or so at best). Maybe I should qualify, but no SIGNIFICANT snow for a couple of weeks (which feels like quite a while!!). It certainly not a case of "hasn't really stopped snowing for weeks".
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Whilst I agree with you that "hasn't really stopped snowing for weeks" sounds like an email from a chalet company, 17th was a lot more than 10cm on the hill. Maybe more like 30. I skied 18th, 19th, 20th and 22nd so I got my info from the hill as well as the website mentioned below.

8-9 january was supposed to be around 50cm. I skied 12 Jan and that seemed to tally.

Snowfall in the village at 1200m is a lot different to snowfall on the hill 3-500m higher.

There haven't been any huge dumps of 1m to get excited about, but conditions on piste IMO are good for the time of year, off-piste is variable. The snow depths are lower than usual, but if you're skiing pistes, it doesn't really matter if there's 30cm depth or 80 as long as the snow is recent, which last Thursday still is... just.

Chatelsnowreport.com is a very good source of info.
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@hd, think ECM on the right track as the euro trough likely to be too far west. Risk of a quite a high snowline on thurs I reckon if we get SW'lys, but too far away for more precision
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@polo, thanks, I shall temper my excitement for the time being then at the big numbers appearing on GFS sites rolling eyes
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This would drop a lot is snow in the western Alps.

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