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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Good over next 6 days but relatively little from next week on, hopefully that will change and I imagine too far out to predict anyway
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@8611, Which charts are you looking at? After next week, the GEFS ensembles I posted have lots of precipitation shown from 25th March to the end of the run. Too far off for any reliability but it certainly doesn't look dry for the next couple of weeks.
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musehead wrote:
8611 wrote:
Would you stop this talk of sun we need precipitation people! Am I right in thinking there's relatively little snow predicted?


No. This chart shows the latest (06z run) GFS prediction of accumulated snowfall over the next 9 days. Widely 50-150cm across the alps.



Wepowder is also showing a good amount of snowfall over the next 6 days (widely 50-100cm). It's also going to be a fair bit colder than average over the coming week (and maybe beyond), so snow to low levels.

Temps @ around 1500m near Chamonix:



I'd say the outlook is very snowy!

How does one convert snow weight to snow depth? Also how does one read the precipitation chart?
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The chart shows kg/m^2, but this is the same as saying centimetres of snow. That's with the assumption that snow is 10 times less dense than water (it varies but is used as a rule of thumb)
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Sorry I'm just looking at we powder and running it through day by day. Its kind of like reading the horoscopes at this stage though, not to say that's not fun mind
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Looking cold and snowy in the 3vallies for next week. Anybody know the likely precipitation for the week please?
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@Jerby, Some links for 3vs - http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=133545#3122430 looks like some good snow this weekend, a small amount next week
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Little Martin wrote:
@Jerby, Some links for 3vs - http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=133545#3122430 looks like some good snow this weekend, a small amount next week


Brilliant. Thank you very much.
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musehead wrote:
The chart shows kg/m^2, but this is the same as saying centimetres of snow. That's with the assumption that snow is 10 times less dense than water (it varies but is used as a rule of thumb)

Ok great, thanks
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Snowing in Ischgl. At least 5 cm on the car. It also feels colder than forecasted
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How are conditions there sugardaddy and is it still very busy at weekends?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/europe-on-long-term-18th-march.html
My final outlook for the long term in the European Alps. The climate drivers are pretty neutral, with the models showing decent snowfall into April above 2000m.
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off to lyngen alps in three weeks , anyone got an idea of wheres best to look weather / snow forecasts for lyngensieder area Puzzled
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Dabber, yr is Norwegian weather service and very good. Also check out varsom.no for avalanche and snow reports.
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@Inboard, perfect cheers
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead


Probably going to be a bit chilly for this sort of kit for the forseable.

Temperatures in the Alps and Pyrenees will be well below average for the coming week. Climbing by next weekend, but still cooler than you would expect for the back end of March. So snow should remain in good condition (some warmer weather on way to Scotland mind you).

Here are some ensembles...

The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Dabber, here‘s the yr site.

https://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Troms/Lyngen/Lyngseidet/

And some ensembles.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=69.58&lon=20.21

Obviously the lower line is the precipitation, but it’s a bit confusing as the middle line 500hpa temp is running close to it .
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@8611, today we had a lot of fog and light snow. No wind thankfully. It's hard to say how busy it is, I guess a lot of people didn't bother skiing (certainly judging by the number of people in jeans at half past three when ee came down)
It's still snowing now in the town and the wind has picked up too. Hopefully tomorrow the visibility will be better
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12z GFS has temperatures briefly warming above average just before Easter.



But quickly cooling down again.

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sugardaddy wrote:
@8611, today we had a lot of fog and light snow. No wind thankfully. It's hard to say how busy it is, I guess a lot of people didn't bother skiing (certainly judging by the number of people in jeans at half past three when ee came down)
It's still snowing now in the town and the wind has picked up too. Hopefully tomorrow the visibility will be better


Thanks. The one time I was there the queues at bottom lift were immense on the weekend mornings. Was January though.
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Very cold temperatures in the Alps and Pyrenees continue till the weekend. Still likely to be below average till at least 28 March after that.
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There’s talk on the radio this morning about more snow for the UK around Easter. I realise it’s a bit far out at the moment, but does anyone have any views on this?
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@breeze11,looking at the ensembles cold weather for the UK at Easter looks more likely than warm weather. Whether that would translate to snow is less clear and too far away to have any confidence in.
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THank you @nozawaonsen, I’ve been waiting 13 long months for his ski holiday. It would be a bit annoying not to get there because of snow! Very Happy
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And the SnowGods continue to confuse the WeatherGuys.
Meant to be sunny today, and definitely no snow.
Instead we got low clouds, the briefest look at the sun mid-morning, and now its snowing hard!
Not complaining snowHead
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I see next to no snow between now and next Wednesday ish. But morris speaks of the european model and the american model, and the latter bringing lots of snow for the Northern alps.

I don't see the latter on wepowder, snow forecast or bergfex, any support for this? I would have expected to see reasonable indicators of snow within about 6 days with certainty from about 3 days. Am I missing something?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@8611, The American model refers to the GFS, which snow-forecast also uses. However it does look pretty dry for the next 6 days or so. Beyond that you can see on the ensembles chart that it looks cooler than average with quite a lot of precipitation (the spikes at the bottom represent precipitation). This chart is for near Chamonix:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@8611, certainly little indication of any significant or indeed much at all snow in the Alps over next five days. Heading towards the end of the month things getting more unsettled.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Spring is springing down this part of the World - luckily those grim forecasts this time last week for this week came to nothing and last couple of days we've had nigh on unbroken sunshine with more for the rest of the week.

Still a little too cold for snow to really start transforming to corn above 2,000m but hoping for better tomorrow and Friday, and we're getting excited at the prospect.



Silly Buff headband suntan also coming along really stupidly now Toofy Grin

Mind you as @nozawaonsen, mentions, maybe snow back end of next week!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I ischgl bound for weekend. Freezing line at 2000m. How bad can it be? Get to tear around pistes for a change instead of chasing powder dragons
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Frankly, by now I am quite in the mood for sunshine, spring snow and long rosé fuelled lunches on a nice terrace.

Thank you, that is all.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Yes but you've been thrashing the fresh all season long! And I've been sitting here just reading everyone else's good times! Not a ski boot in sight (though the sledge made two impromptu appearances domestically, including a few first descents in my local park)

But like you, I appreciate the sunny terrace too. What is that orange stuff you often see them drinking in Austria and Italy, with ice? Is it sprtizer or something? Colour of lucozade but always looks a lot more tempting
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Aperol


http://youtube.com/v/jQPLRMUH8uQ
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Amazing conditions in the Pyrenees at the moment. Around 40cm over the last few days with very cold air keeping everything in perfect condition. Off piste has been fantastic, and there is still more snow due on Saturday Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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That's her noza thanks. There's something very european about that drink. I see glass bars and outside reclining seats.

Ski guide I hadn't thought of Pyrenees. My mates were already locked into munich but for future reference what are the airports for there?
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@under a new name, amen to that. 🙏
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@8611, Aperol. Trendy drink in the refined bars of one street in Turin for an afternoon in late July, 1957.

You can only imagine the look on the warehouse staff when someone ordered a bottle about 4 years ago. Then another... then .... it’s now sold pre-mixed on easyjet!

Nothing like a marketing monster.

Glass of prosecco, measure of aperol, sparkling water if you like, splash of Chardonnay if you are in Champoluc...

Quite the easy drinking hair of the dog.

Martini (Rosso) spritz also works.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Any weather boffins got their crystal balls out for how Pyrenees (Vallnord area) is looking into next week...? Snow forecast is showing freeze levels around 2700meters by Tuesday next week and possible rain Crying or Very sad
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Is there another retour d'est brewing next week ? We are heading out to La Rosiere on the 8th so it would be nice for some fresh.
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8611 wrote:

What is that orange stuff you often see them drinking in Austria and Italy, with ice? Is it sprtizer or something? Colour of lucozade but always looks a lot more tempting


Aldi selling its own version called Aperini for £6.99. Anyone tried it yet?
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