 Poster: A snowHead
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Interesting little piece on some of the problems weather stations are having.
Zweifelhafte Messdaten immer kritisch hinterfragen
The before (25 November) and after (11 January) picture at Seegrubbe shows how a number of the instruments are now beneath the snow (and hence giving erroneous readings).
Similarly Ulmerhutte (at St Anton) cannot measure above 4.13m. Once it reached that it flatlined.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Any chance I can get an indication of the snowgods intentions for Bulgaria ( Bansko ) (I'm hoping its the "eastern regions" previously referred to ) first week in February please? you know, just a rough ' yes it will be fine' will suffice. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Any snow on the radar for Tignes? Snow-forecast isn't showing any in their forecast..
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If you click on "vent" and "temp" at the top of the same map you get wind speed 9and on the chart you show it means it's going to be pretty still over France and central Europe, and the temps show it'll be pretty chilly (but not as chilly as it's going to be in Russia). And of course, as the Nozmeister will no doubt tell us, it means bug all because it's ages away and only a single run.
At least that's what I have gleaned from my studies on this thread...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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At 120hrs you can see a ridge of cold (blue) coming from Greenland, heading for Shetland/ Southern Norway.
By 144hrs it's formed a proper low over Shetland full of even colder air so its turned purple.
At 168hrs the high pressure, warm air (green, yellow, orange) splits this air from the main body over Greenland by expanding up the Atlantic to the southern tip of Greenland. Think this is the 'Azores High' which has given us warm weather in the UK for the last month.
At 192hrs the warm air has spread up the west coast of Greenland across to the East side of Iceland and the cold air has slowly sunk southwards over the whole of the UK. It's no longer purple, just grey, but that's still very cold.
At 216hrs the low has grown a bit flabby but is now centred over SE England, meaning the winds North of London will be Easterly. South of London winds will be light as that's the centre of the low.
At 240hrs the cold air covers nearly the whole of Europe and in the UK winds will swing NE.
The chances of precipitation falling as snow are good below 528dam, poor above. All the UK gets that for at least 3 days.
If this happens it will be cold and snowy right across the UK. The set up is perfect for snow...in Lincolnshire! The cold air will pick up moisture from the (relatively) warm North Sea and put it down when it reaches land.
It's also chart porn for Glenshee, the Lecht and Cairngorm.
This is just 1 model though (the ECM). The GFS is saying something totally different and the UKMO only shows out to 144hrs. The ECM has gone for this scenario (consistently) 4 times in a row now and the GFS has been totally inconsistent all month so it's not quite 'all bets are off' but if the ECM sticks with this and the UKMO starts showing the same over the next 2 days, I'll be getting my winter tyres on and digging out the sledge!
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I'm in a pub. But ECM is quite foxy.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Does the forecast get better after a few noza? 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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well thats decided then i'll stay in lincs .... Bit flat though
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| Quote: |
nozawaonsen
FreeRider
Posts: 2074
I'm in a pub. But ECM is quite foxy
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Are you allowed to do that when half of Britain are sitting by their PC's awaiting the next run................ boooooo, Poor show.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Quote: |
The set up is perfect for snow...in Lincolnshire!
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There is a nice sloping field just below our house, I thought last year about asking the farmer to set up a tractor tow ...
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Poster: A snowHead
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-38 is quite cold so hopefully, the snow won't be melting in the next few days !!! I like the pretty colours but having decided against snow tyres on the new Golf this year, am now concerned about the potential for snow next week and not being able to get up Box Hill. 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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come on . the night before i go to mayrhofen and the weather updates have dried up  everyone out on the lash?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Its snowy in mayrhofen, and the beer is still cold, and the bands play loud. Enjoy!
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There is plenty of 'niederschlag' activity on the wigglies from the 19th through to the end of month, but no real definite consensus(compared to the ensemble)even from 4/5 days out. 
The FL seems to be rising up above zero on the GFS but the ensembles keeps it much colder.
My punt is for some northern/eastern alps snow on 20/21st and again around 27/28/29th.I just hope the temps dont rise too much.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Drove through the San Bernardino Pass yesterday. It is remarkable how the the north side is blanketed in snow and snowing and the south side was clear skies and the is very little snow on the mountains.
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nozawaonsen, lots of lingering snow around schladming, snowing hard and has been all night. The next few days will be terrific.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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A few records for snowfall being broken.
Sehr viel Neuschnee, Zum Teil Rekordwerte [SLF]
- A third of SLF observation stations (primarily in the northern Alps, Valais and Grisons) broke snow depth date records for 09 January.
- Though so far these still fall short of the overall winter snow depth records (set in 1968 and 1999).
- Some places, such as Zermatt, have however broken their records for accumulated snowfall for the 30 days from 11 December to 09 January.
Interesting little piece from Lawinenwarndienst Tirol.
Ausführliche Erkundungen mit Bundesheer-Hubschrauber durchgeführt
Which flags up the ongoing problems of full depth slides this winter and warns to steer clear of areas below glide cracks.
Out in the US it continues to be unusually dry in many areas (most of the west is below 75% of average, much is 50% below, Tahoe is below 15% of average...).
But there are signs that things could be on the up at least in Colorado.
The Storms are Colliding!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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waynos, this particular band of snow had a bit more kick in it than I had expected!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Quote: |
I gather further west it's been a sunny day.
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This far west, flawless sunny day, not a cloud in the sky.
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nozawaonsen, yeah seems like all the forecast missed this, no complaints from me though. Finally the snowfall seems to be fading out.
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You know it makes sense.
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waynos, pam w, I think the dividing line was somewhere round Innsbruck, to the west was sunny, to the east more likely to be snowy or certainly more overcast.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Interesting UKMO tonight and it'll be interesting to see if ECM continues in a similar theme this evening.
GFS 12z doesn't.
Nevertheless it would still bring some reasonable snow from 19/20 January and then again on 21 January and again on 23 January. Particularly in the central and eastern Alps.
Still some way to go in terms of either the Euro or US models backing down...
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Poster: A snowHead
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How does the above impact on the UK?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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ECM and GFS models are now consolidating around a solution which would see potentially quite substantial snow fall in the northern Alps, in two bands on the 19/20 January (favouring the eastern Alps at first) and 20/21. As it approaches high winds and initially mild temperatures could be issues, before temperatures drop swiftly. Certainly worth keeping an eye on.
Shorter term the next couple of days should see cold and clear weather across much of the Alps. SLF incidentally echoing a similar warning as Lawinenwarndienst Tirol:
"Full depth snowslides which may attain medium size are possible below approximately 2500 m at any and all times. This applies in particular on steep, grassy slopes and road embankments in eastern, southern and western aspects. Exposed sections of transportation routes may be placed at risk. Caution is urged below glide cracks." [ SLF]
Renry, if it had followed the path suggested in the UKMO run above it could have been pretty cold, but this morning's output is tending to suggest this is less likely (ECM has moved closer to GFS, GFS has moved closer to ECM).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen, any of the above likely to bring any snow to the dolomites?
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pmercer, on the basis of the current output, most of the snow looks like it will fall on the northern side of the Alps. Those places close to the French border (such as Bardonecchia or Courmayer) look like they may benefit from some of the snow spilling over, otherwise it looks pretty light elsewhere in Italy.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen, time for me to start avidly reading this thread and watching the wigglies, off to Westendorf on the 21st, it looks like all our christmas's have come at once, pretty significant precipitation 19th/20th, according to the charts and huge existing base........ Quick question, do you think the rain that's forecast for lower elevations (Think Westendorf is around 800m in the village) will have much of a spoiling effect, as you say, it will turn to snow quite quickly as temps drop....
thanks in advance
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neilkav, hard to say as at this range there is still a lot of detail that can shift around. It does look like places could see potentially heavy snow at the end of the week (Bergfex is currently suggesting over 90cms in the Arlberg on Thursday/Friday - obviously that figure is very subject to change this far out), if that happens it also looks like heavy rain below about 1400m at present, but that will drop as the front pulls through and be followed by snow to low levels. Will it spoil things? Not so sure once the new snow covers the wet snow. Could make for some fun driving conditions as it changes.
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nozawaonsen, whats the outlook for The Three Valleys area of france in the near future? Out there on 4th February which i know is to far out to predict, but what about the next 10 days or so?
Thanks
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Ricklovesthepowder, looks like some cold weather and snow for the end of this week 20/21 January. At present I'd say 30cm possibly quite a bit more.
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Interesting model output this evening if you like it cold. And you like it snowy. Across the Alps and possibly the UK...
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nozawaonsen, brilliant cheers for the update. Lets hope we get some snow across the UK as well!!!
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