 Poster: A snowHead
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I'm going to Soll in Austria on the 19th, can't make head nor tail of these pressure charts so could someone with more knowledge possibly enlighten me to the possibility of snow between 19th and 25th of February? Forecasts are saying like 1 cm of snow, but I'm not very trusting of weather forecasts!
Thanks guys 
D
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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12z GFS continues to look good for next week with the potential for snow around 14th February and then again later in the week around the 17th.
Temperatures could still be of concern though in lower level resorts (snow falling at 1200m to 1500m) though it is still too far out to have real confidence either in that it will snow or what the temperatures will be. That said the trend for snow in the Alps next week continues to look good as we draw closer.
TheDelaney too far off to have any sense of what the conditions will be like then. There is a reasonable chance there will be some fresh snow in Austria before you arrive.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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if you are still responding to me ( said sorry) on different page,when do you get confident that a forecast will come good? ie one to two days out or cant see anything on the webcams,i,m going to Valdisere 19th feb,and i,m encoraged by the trends that point to snow( and happy re the height of Valdisere and the possible high snowline) .are there any more signs of the high pressure building a blocking over Spain which a previous snowhead alluded to earlier, appreciate your imput,
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| philmes wrote: |
| 06z operational continues to reassert high pressure influence over over Spain and France. That's not great news. |
this snowheads comment
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Philmes was I think referring to something which might happen in 11 days time, so whilst it is worth watching I'm not too concerned about it at this stage.
As for next week I guess if this pattern is still strong tomorrow evening it would start to look probable. Then I suppose confidence depends on how much detail you are trying to read into what might happen.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Temperatures could still be of concern though in lower level resorts (snow falling at 1200m to 1500m) |
nozawaonsen can you say whether this is true accross the Alps or just the French Alps? I'm interested in the resorts in the Eastern Alps.
Thanks
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Philmes was I think referring to something which might happen in 11 days time, so whilst it is worth watching I'm not too concerned about it at this stage.
As for next week I guess if this pattern is still strong tomorrow evening it would start to look probable. Then I suppose confidence depends on how much detail you are trying to read into what might happen. |
thank you
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GFS continues to look good and the ECMWF looks fairly tasty from a precipitation perspective...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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How long before everyone starts panicking as airports close right, left and centre and the entire half term travel scene gets bogged down in hours of snowy chaos?
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It's not looking especially snowy for the UK at the moment.
Could change of course...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Off to La Giettaz, France....22 Feb, can you please arrange lots of snow for the week before, sun for the week we are there, with snowshowers each night as a little top up. Cheers.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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A woman in work with me has cancelled her half term ski holiday because of conditions!!! I've told her there's loads of skiing available and we may have snow before then! She told me there won't be any snow in France this month...At that point I walked away.
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Kersh, on the basis of this evening's 12z GFS then yes it could be something to watch in Austria too (perhaps fluctuating between 900m and 1400m in and around Salzburg).
But the temperature beyond this weekend is still rather in question depending on how far east the cold temperatures reach and is shifting quite a bit from run to run (and other models have the temperatures much cooler, BOM for example). Overall I would have this in the something to watch rather than something to worry about category for the moment.
Continuing indications of light snow possibly coming into Austria this Friday, though it looks a little marginal this evening. Let's see.
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You know it makes sense.
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garethjomo, she's obviously not a Snowhead! 
nozawaonsen, thanks.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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nozawaonsen, I love the BOM - iirc it was the BOM that first spotted the cold snap in November! ..... (cough, cough) er what's the BOM? 
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Poster: A snowHead
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| philmes wrote: |
It's not looking especially snowy for the UK at the moment.
Could change of course... |
Want the snow in Europe not in UK stopping us getting out!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Mattmulkeen, BOM stands for Bureau of Meteorology, the Australian equivalent of the Met Office. I only really mentioned it to flag up that several models are currently still suggesting a colder evolution for next week (in particular for Austria) and the trend for temperatures is still far from settled for next week, other than it will likely be cooler than this week.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Cheers noza - fingers crossed the Aussies are right!
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18z GFS looking pretty sweet again. Looks like the snow drought may be ending in the next seven days!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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nozawaonsen SUMMED UP THE 18Z WELL very well infact.
Lovely trends now turning wet.
On the high over spain. I shall say this only once.
A high over spain is never such a problem if its top edge is south of the pyrenees. In fact, it can ensure a westerly airflow and allow for some nice battleground scenarios over its northern edge bumping in to cooler air coming off continental feeds. Remember clockwise circulation around a high, anticlockwise around a low....I wont elaborate for simplicity reasons any further than that.
The problem over the past few weeks is the high has been well over spain and france, deflecting moisture more north (or south).
The GFS shows some lovely potential, high pressure to the south with low pressures being squeezed across france. A newer trend.
As nozawaonsen said to me the other night, nothing worse than when an event is shown for a set day, but every day you get closer it moves a day away. That was Saturday he said that (I think), its now late Tuesday, it still shows a (wetter) scenario for the 14th for france and at least snow for most places across the western alps (switzerland and itlay) from 14th-17th next week.
Id say a trend away from dry and clear is almost a given (id be more happy if charts showed this come fri). Thus, next 48 hours (or 8 model runs) need to firm up the trend.
I wasnt supposed to check this tonight, but im really willing snow for france, know they are styruggling in some resorts at the mo!
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and the 00z perpetuates the cooling trend - possibly very cold in the FI, with a Valentine snowfall to kick it off..
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Certainly would be a colder GFS 00z operational into FI and drier too, but I'm not too convinced about the evolution from hi res to low res. And the same period marks a massive split between the operational and the control. So there may be something up.
Overall another good set of ensembles though.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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How does Austria fair among all of this chop and change. Much cold and precip?
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RetroBod,
Staying too warm at the moment for those of us heading to the ski welt on the 19th - need the freezing level to fall.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Mattmulkeen, to be honest with you that's exactly what it does in this morning's operational run. Dropping nearly 15C over two days.
Mayrhofen (not too far from Soll)
Not too convinced by it though as I mentioned above, but it is certainly an option as previous runs have shown. 19 February is too far off at present. And beside a general trend (which could easily change) towards cooler and wetter weather I'm not sure I'd be confident to add much more for the half term week at this stage.
Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Wed 9-02-11 10:07; edited 1 time in total
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Would it be fair to say,though that the ski welt is not so snow dry as parts of France? My only concern is warm daytime temps. It still seems cool enough at night to blow snow?
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.if there's any water left
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You know it makes sense.
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nozawaonsen,
Aye i did see the massive fall in temps at the end of next week - but after four years of reading this thread and taking on sagely advice from yourself and your predecessors - i dont look much further than 6 days ahead. Temps seem to be staying stubbornly high into the early part of next week at the roly mo and thats a bit frustrating.
Saying that it does look colder towards the back end of next week - as you weather people say..... lets see where we are after a few more runs.
Cheers for all your input.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| garethjomo wrote: |
| A woman in work with me has cancelled her half term ski holiday because of conditions!!! I've told her there's loads of skiing available and we may have snow before then! She told me there won't be any snow in France this month...At that point I walked away. |
Which company? Potential for a cheap deal for someone!!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Mattmulkeen, fair point!
RetroBod, you might find someone able to offer a current view on the Austria thread. My impression is that lower French resorts have been suffering the worst. Significantly much of Austria received 30 to 50cm of snow two weeks ago which did not reach France.
As others have mentioned the decision to run snow cannons will depend on the amount left in reservoirs and the power costs of running them up till now. Again French resort managers may be being faced with some slightly more complex decisions given the need to preserve remaining resources (water and financial). And of course temperatures will need to be low enough.
At present temperatures do look like they will trend down (the snow line looks like it will be around 1200m next week in the Tirol, plus or minus) and the chances of snow look like increasing.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Wed 9-02-11 10:31; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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NOZAWAONSEN do you have a wiggle graph for Valdisere! or close by
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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thanks Mattmulkeen,
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen, do you think Murren in the Jungfrau Region Switzerland will get much snow before the 20th ??
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GFS operational continues to promise to break the snow drought, though the timescales continue to get pushed back a bit. First real precipitation in the French Alps now looks like starting on the 16th. In the Three Valleys for example, about 15cm is forecast with a freezing level of 1200m.
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I'd expect the situation to change as we get nearer to next week....
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| kitenski wrote: |
| I'd expect the situation to change as we get nearer to next week.... |
In what way?
edit: the details will obviously change, but the trend is good.
Last edited by After all it is free  on Wed 9-02-11 12:18; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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about 15cm is forecast with a freezing level of 1200m.[/quote]
where did that show up, the gfs i,m looking at is still showing activity from the 13th onward,there are no actual figures,is that another site,sorry a novice
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as a general question, when you refer to ""lower resorts" what sort of height are we talking? <1800m? <1500m?
i recall a stay in meribel two years ago and even in meribel itself it was horrible rain on our last day, whereas a scoot up the slope in the lift to about 1800m or so and the snow was falling nicely
we're heading to sainte foy on the 27th Feb this year. cover is looking ok, even at resort level which i think is about 1500m
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FAQ
