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The all new 23/24 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Live webcams in Megeve and Morzine at 1,100m reveal no snow and tipping it down. Whilst Meribel at 1,400m has fresh snow cover.

A new Haute-Savoie snow line of 1,250m?
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Snow&skifan wrote:
Live webcams in Megeve and Morzine at 1,100m reveal no snow and tipping it down. Whilst Meribel at 1,400m has fresh snow cover.

A new Haute-Savoie snow line of 1,250m?


Snowing again Les Carroz at 1200m by the looks of Le Grand Massif webcams.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
BoldSeagull wrote:
Snow&skifan wrote:
Live webcams in Megeve and Morzine at 1,100m reveal no snow and tipping it down. Whilst Meribel at 1,400m has fresh snow cover.

A new Haute-Savoie snow line of 1,250m?


Snowing again Les Carroz at 1200m by the looks of Le Grand Massif webcams.


This is fantastic across the entire Alps, the biggest dump since early December?

Even Megeve and Morzine should be fine, 90% of slopes above that altitude.
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Snow&skifan wrote:
Live webcams in Megeve and Morzine at 1,100m reveal no snow and tipping it down. Whilst Meribel at 1,400m has fresh snow cover.

A new Haute-Savoie snow line of 1,250m?


The Megeve village square webcam whilst not showing an abundance of snow has snow on the roofs so wouldn't say 'tipping it down' (though nothing significant on the Jaillet picnic benches...yet!)
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clarky999 wrote:
Plus as above no financial sense in blowing snow now anyway.


Cannons are running above our village right now (I am as surprised as you!).
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michaelf wrote:
Snow&skifan wrote:
Live webcams in Megeve and Morzine at 1,100m reveal no snow and tipping it down. Whilst Meribel at 1,400m has fresh snow cover.

A new Haute-Savoie snow line of 1,250m?


The Megeve village square webcam whilst not showing an abundance of snow has snow on the roofs so wouldn't say 'tipping it down' (though nothing significant on the Jaillet picnic benches...yet!)


When I posted two hours earlier it was clearly raining heavily.

@polo predicted falling FL’s.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
woke up to a light dusting on the ground at 900m in Haute-Savoie.

Quote:

This is fantastic across the entire Alps, the biggest dump since early December?


Still fantastic, but really centered around the Southern and Northern alps, with the big dumps missing the Western side.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Snow&skifan, well I showed one gfs chart getting down below 800m by Sat morning but looking closer at shorter term models like WRF, Arome, Arpegge the average FL was forecast closer to 1200m. As it happens it snowed to below 1000m last night. Point is as ever it’s better to look at more than one model, and even then FL’s are not something you can rely on for precision.

Similar this evening, FL expected to be around 1200m, but could briefly start higher, finish lower.
WRF 00z btw has another 10cm tonight (NW), but others aren’t as good…..so just have to wait and see.

One other level I mentioned a while back was for Monday, guessed 1600m, and that’s still the case. But given the unusual positioning of the trough to our west it’s not straightforward. Cold air may hang on in alpine valleys and the whole situation is marginal (temps / ppn) for the NW. Other areas (south) will do very well.
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A lot of blue skies and laden slopes on the webcams this morning, a good day for anyone in the Alps I think
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@Rob Mackley, plenty of resorts running cannons and making snow now. La plagne, LDA courchevel to name a few
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Looking at the Les Saisies (northern French Alps) webcams it snowed down to a decent altitude (1150 or so) but not in great quantities even at resort level of 1650. Pretty, but doesn't look to have been a season-saving dump!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Can see snow fell down to 700m around the lake, Chablais area.
What is season saving? Are resorts about to close early? Either way, not all areas are equal. Pyrenees, Massif Central, parts of northern Italy, places that were looking pretty barren last week have done relatively well. While southern alps still looking at another 1-2m
https://wepowder.com/en

A few charts for Monday afternoon, ECM, GFS, ICON.....ppn and temps




Dry and mild along northern ridge, somewhere between 0 and +4 for the western alps is going to be higher snowline than current weekend. Will need to get lucky with timing, ie will most ppn fall at +3 or closer to zero....will be mixed results I'd say, away from the south
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Thanks @polo.

Bloke on the internet was correct Little Angel
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Looks bit like a re tour d’est coming good for aosta and mauriene valley? I’m hopeful heading to val Cenis late match
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@Snow&skifan, it's always a mixed bag, some stuff right, some not so much.....but for anyone still unclear about how this promising pattern got skewed to the southern alps instead of the N/NW...it was all down to the track of that shortwave low....which started as a 'sunday wobble'....and eventually ended up too far SW to benefit all of the alps, which was noted as a concern way back at the early stages. Not a bad result though if you cast back to the early Feb heatwave.

No change further out....early Mar sees another trough to our west, similar track maybe....signs of high lat blocking appearing....I'd love to see another round of undercutting drama (deep cold from the E/NE).....strat pv is toast with strongly negative (easterly) wind speeds, but still a few weeks away for that.

Better get a few runs in before the rugby.....later
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@polo, Not entirely sure what is meant by "season saving" at this stage? Puzzled season's just about over as far as French holidays go...
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Quote:

season's just about over as far as French holidays go...

But the season is SO much better after the French holidays have gone! There should be 6 good weeks of skiing left, even at mid-altitudes.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Origen wrote:
Quote:

season's just about over as far as French holidays go...

But the season is SO much better after the French holidays have gone! There should be 6 good weeks of skiing left, even at mid-altitudes.


Certainly hope so for Grand Massif from 01 April for a week. wink
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@Origen, for aure, but I don't understand this "saving" of the season Puzzled Puzzled
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@Boarderfarce, Yes it seems many are , I’m surprised that is unusual at this time of year and some would argue not very environmentally good or financially sound . But where I am or have been Sainte Foy snow depths are good and they managed to get all the snow making to all home runs in place early on in the season .
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I expect running a water pump and a fan is cheaper than running an empty lift or not selling lift tickets.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Monday and Tuesday looking like classic Genoa low , lots of Snow in Aosta , Foehn over the border in French Tarentaise .
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Quote:

I don't understand this "saving" of the season

Because if it goes on as it is, with super mild temperatures, spring like slopes and no pistes open down to lower level centres, the rest of the season will be poor.
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Glosterwolf wrote:
I expect running a water pump and a fan is cheaper than running an empty lift or not selling lift tickets.


The season passes have all been sold. Most of the french and the Swiss (at least from my point of view) think of other stuff than skiing after the feb holidays. What's left of the season is chickenfeed financially, for the local economy, no matter how much it floats our boats.

If course it depends where you are. The high altitude season runs until May, for the few that don't like beaches, sailing, golf, biking, tennis, anyothershit.
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Brightening up later in the midweek, could be amazing above 2000m if avi conditions manageable
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Thinking of a trip Thurs-mon. Fly to Geneva. Where is looking promising for some fresh snow?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Astontech, La Thuile or Courmayour through the tunnel they are going to get blasted , my feeling is to ignore the models like snow forecast , not convinced , Genoa low coming in will cause Foehn on the French side of the alpine ridge if precipitation does roll over it will be a higher PN level .
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
What days are the expected snowfall?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Sunday Night to at least Wednesday at the moment then Sunny after . That’s how I think it will land. Both resorts had a lot of snow Thursday and Friday last week on Thursday when it was raining on the French side it was snowing down at 1400m on the Italian side . Not far from Geneva and cheaper and better food , coffee and beer , what’s not to like .
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@Astontech, This can give you a bit of a feel from the French side of the ridge

https://chamonix-meteo.com/

Compare it to the forecast for Coumayeur through the tunnel , of the two I’d hire a car go to La Thuile but do a day in Courmayeur , but with this being a weather outlook thread I won’t dwell on resort specifics
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Thanks guys, will see what I can find. Where is the skiing better for an intermediate (mainly ski reds)?
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@Astontech, still peak French hols so Italy better even setting weather aside. Poor cover in many lower French areas ( however much some people deny it) will make slopes with good cover even more crowded than usual.
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@Astontech, webcams for Monterosa look surprisingly quiet.
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Origen wrote:
@Astontech, still peak French hols so Italy better even setting weather aside. Poor cover in many lower French areas ( however much some people deny it) will make slopes with good cover even more crowded than usual.


Ah, you spotted the denial malarkey too Little Angel
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@Snow&skifan, @Origen, I'll never understand these references to "some people", it's something Noza used to do as well. Spit it out, quote people, it makes life much easier for those following the conversations, and maybe allows people to make better judgements about who to take seriously / ignore etc. because vague/veiled statements have no merit or substance to me.....and just leads to more questions.....who dunnit? Or at least give us a clue as to what area is in denial.

I think it's clear that the best reports on various snow conditions come from those who are visiting. Having spent hard earned money, and chosen a resort, their opinion is far more worthwhlle (good or bad) than the many of those who live in mountains, or have / had residences, and therefore may be more inherently biased than a one off or occasional visitor.
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Quote:

I think it's clear that the best reports on various snow conditions come from those who are visiting.

That will sometimes be the case. But sometimes, and very understandably, people who have forked out for a week in a new resort will be positive about their experience, and make the best of it. Somebody who is spending their umpteenth week in that resort might say "Well, it's not too bad, but it's more like the end of March than mid February and some of the best runs will be closed now until there's significant new snow".

It's also depressing when people talk about early March being the "end of the season". In my experience many of the best weeks of many seasons are after the end of the French school holidays.

So far, this season has been mixed, to put it mildly, in many areas especially in northern France. Without some significant snowfall and sustained lower temperatures the rest of the season could be dire. With some luck with the weather, the season could be saved from being "overall poor" and become "overall reasonable". That's what I meant by "season saving" and I don't know why that expression has ruffled so many feathers.
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@Origen, who are the “some people in denial”, regarding conditions
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@Origen, from my point of view, the season doesn't need "saving". Had some very fine days. Odd turn of phrase. But no worries.

I'm more of the opinion that seasoned commentators are better value.

I'm also liking Meteoblue's imminent forecast for Monterosa

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I think in the world of social media people feel pressure to have a good time and tell everyone about it. I suspect this negatively affects the accuracy of reported conditions.
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I'm sure there have been some fine days. But it's not been a fine season. I was in the northern French Alps at Christmas time and there were probably more lower runs closed, or in poor condition, with little or no overnight freeze at 1600m, than almost any of the many previous Christmases I'd spent there. Many runs still poor, or closed now, at a time of year when the domaine is often fully open, in peak French holidays. And there have been countless reports on Snowheads of uncommonly warm temperatures for much of the season.

Personally I'd much prefer a bright warm sunny day with dodgy snow than a cold day with poor visibility and high winds and thigh deep powder. So OK, if it keeps people happy, it's been a perfectly good season, and even if the weather stays warm (and preferably dry rather than wet) for the next 6 weeks, will go down in history as such and doesn't need saving.
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