I'm doing a lot of weather checking and webcam watching with first of two trips coming up in less than 3 weeks now. I must say despite the paucity of natural snow fall around, I'm impressed with how resorts are managing their snow making and what snow they have and are getting more and more pistes open.
I'm hoping for some decent dumps of snow in the next couple of weeks, but even if it doesn't then there is still fun to be had, even if there is no fresh powder.
The main thing I take from this thread is that forecasts aren't reliable and are subject to change!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Major downgrades this morning from the forecasters, with the high pressure predicted to move back over France by Wednesday leading to another week of dry weather. Little more than a dusting on Monday night.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
moffatross wrote:
zzz wrote:
moffatross wrote:
I'm liking the UK Met Office 30 day thoughts. Good for proper winter in the UK, and good for the Alps too, Once we've got a firm block around somewhere, so long as it's not situated bang over, or just east of the UK te whole time, there's room for some pleasant surprises
I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Generally, if you want snow in the Northern Alps, for example, you need an airmass that comes from the Atlantic, preferably a polar maritime airmass or returning polar maritime; this is a cold, and importantly, moist airmass. Generally, a blocking high results in a dry and cold airmass from the NE, known as a polar continental airmass. This is what we have at the moment and is generally what you get with high pressure centred over Europe. It's cold and dry and no use for snow , unless you like skiing on the manmade stuff most of the alps is covered with at the moment.
I admire your optimism but the reality is perhaps different.
Your starting premise is wrong. Europe has not been under the influence of a cold and dry airmass but a mild and slack one. Without a decent temperature gradient, weather won't happen, and though snowmaking is possible under inversion conditilns even wiith mild, slack air around (as has been the case in Europe for weeks), there'll be no useful snowfall without some proper cold air in the mix to shake it all up. Here's where we are just now, a very long way from a 'polar continental mass'. Get a decent long blast in from the north or the east, and we'll get nice surprises.
This morning's GFS operational actually offers reasonable hope, and although it's not setting up for a sustained blast a la heights rising over Greenland, it'd mix it up the air nicely down over the Alps.
A quick question - can anyone point to me to a site where I can look up past past weather forecasts in the UK (Wales). I'm after the forecast for November 26th, Snowdonia.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@AndAnotherThing.., Have a look at weatheronline for Capel Curig
MWIS once had a method for getting the archived forecast out but sadly, no more.
For model charts, these can easily be had from meteociel by changing date in the url e.g.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Snowforecast still showing some good falls coming up this week for parts of Austria. Any thoughts from those here in the know?
After all it is free
After all it is free
For the last three days Météo France keep pushing snow back to the end of their 10 day forecast.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
'Major downgrades this morning from the forecasters, with the high pressure predicted to move back over France by Wednesday leading to another week of dry weather. Little more than a dusting on Monday night'
Its not showing that on the Austrian weather sites - quite some hefty falls on Wetter.at - especially Thurs and beyond (although beyond 3 dyas I tend to ignore)
My mate who we refer to as the SnowGod is arriving roundabout the weekend of the 14th / 15th of this month - so that's about as scientific as looking at charts two weeks out but I would not be surprised as his track record is superb!
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
i only really linger around here and dont post much..
but i have to say, im going away on the 25th jan and i have never been so worried going in jan.
webcam watching more than usual this year, and every model run is more depressing than the last.
j2 ski is showing snow from the 8th onwards in chamonix, i put my money on it changes.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
oscarkat wrote:
'Major downgrades this morning from the forecasters, with the high pressure predicted to move back over France by Wednesday leading to another week of dry weather. Little more than a dusting on Monday night'
Its not showing that on the Austrian weather sites - quite some hefty falls on Wetter.at - especially Thurs and beyond (although beyond 3 dyas I tend to ignore)
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
geoffers wrote:
@AndAnotherThing.., Have a look at weatheronline for Capel Curig
Cheers
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I haven't looked on this thread for a while. What's the main betting for the next big dump? Two weeks?
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@emwmarine, 3 days I'm hoping.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
moffatross wrote:
This morning's GFS operational actually offers reasonable hope, and although it's not setting up for a sustained blast a la heights rising over Greenland, it'd mix it up the air nicely down over the Alps.
Loving that GFS chart with the jetstream buckling and what gets thrown at NE Italy!!
With Polar air drawn a long way South, it looks quite snowy around the fringes of Britain, across large parts of France and vast swathes of Iberia.
14 days out though!!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
5th, 8th and 10th of January all look good on Latest EC.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Doesn't look like much except maybe some snow showers to the south up high on the 14th on EPS Control, but after that... So no model convergence, let's take all this with a grain of salt.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Bit of a downgrade on the numbers for the 12Z GFS.
GFS12z has snowfall arriving 2/3 and again on 4/5 December. As has been the case for a few days now this is primarily forecast to fall in Austria particularly around Salzburgerland.
Spent the day skiing Stuhleck. Very pleasant in the sunshine and natural snow cover to the valley floor (780m) which looked suitably Narnia like with all the snow covered trees. Pistes were fairly hard packed given lack of fresh snow.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
GFS12z has snowfall arriving 2/3 and again on 4/5 December.
2017?
After all it is free
After all it is free
davidof wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
GFS12z has snowfall arriving 2/3 and again on 4/5 December.
2017?
Ha! Was in the after glow of a fun day on the slopes! January 2017.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
nozawaonsen wrote:
davidof wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
GFS12z has snowfall arriving 2/3 and again on 4/5 December.
2017?
Ha! Was in the after glow of a fun day on the slopes! January 2017.
ah I thought you'd improved your forecasting. Happy New Year!
From Chamonix meteo
" A persistent bise wind pattern might be setting up thereafter between the high pressure area settled over the Near Atlantic or the British Isles, and some low systems whirling between the Eastern Baltic and the Central Mediterranean, meaning : bitter cold weather, especially high up, cloudy at times… with some snow flurries fluttering about in the wind."
At least he used the "S" word.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
He tends not to pull the trigger without good reason so hopefully for all concerned he's right. I just armchair watching with no ski plans but enjoying it nonetheless (how sad is that??).
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
8611 wrote:
He tends not to pull the trigger without good reason so hopefully for all concerned he's right. I just armchair watching with no ski plans but enjoying it nonetheless (how sad is that??).
We going to Glencoe in scotland in March and im sat watching too!
This is how WRF sees the snowfall out to Friday. Not bad at all in Austria (on the northern side of the Alps) and parts of Switzerland (to the east).
FI for both GFS and ECM starts to look interesting for the middle third of the month for much of the Alps. The pattern change that has been flagged for a while now continues to build support, but other than saying few of the options look much like December it's hard to get much sense of the output at present. I'd stick on tonight's output if we could...
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Slightly frustrating that the latest forecast charts are showing snow above and below Slovenia but little on it! Hopefully they are slightly out, could do with a dump in the next 2 1/2 weeks.
EC 12z looks better for snow at the end of the Deterministic outlook.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
oscarkat wrote:
'Major downgrades this morning from the forecasters, with the high pressure predicted to move back over France by Wednesday leading to another week of dry weather. Little more than a dusting on Monday night'
Its not showing that on the Austrian weather sites - quite some hefty falls on Wetter.at - especially Thurs and beyond (although beyond 3 dyas I tend to ignore)
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
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