Arteta10, "exciting"......this is doing nothing for my nerves....travelling to Alpe D'Huez on the 21st Jan and I am hooked to this thread!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Little to argue about in the 18z operational run which once again takes Europe very cold from mid month and this time fires a low into the Mediterranean to meet the cold air.
Given how jittery the models have been of late I'd want to see this cropping up in a few runs tomorrow before beginning to take it seriously, but interesting nonetheless.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Do the Mediterranean lows usually get through to the northern alps?Or will it be like the last few snow events in reverse? With less snow falling as it pushes North?
I know it's all conjecture at this stage but I'm praying for one more dump in the western swiss alps just before 26 jan
hedley, it depends, sometimes as in early November 2011 (though not necessarily in the example above) they pile up on the southern side (sudstau) and very little pushes into the north, which is an inverse of the repeated nordstau we've been seeing through December and early January. This morning GFS has flipped back to a nordstau pattern from mid month.
Still no consistency.
Some super weather in the Alps increasingly spreading east. Clear blue skies in the west at least until the weekend (though some light snow continue to look like reaching the eastern Alps on Friday). Warming up considerably during the day, cooling down considerably overnight. Although cooler as we approach the weekend.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
The side effect of following this thread is that now my mates are asking me what the forecast is looking like for our trip next week.
Previously, I would have just looked on snow-forecast and treated that as gospel, but now I have to mention potentials and models and uncertainty and stuff...
00z took it one way and 06z takes it back the other all consistently cold though, potential for snow from 16th onwards but they can't make up if it'd from the Atlantic or up from the med or both!! or maybe even none at all!!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Considering the current base, any conditions will be good, from my perspective. I'm headed to Lech on the 21st, and while it would be great to get a little freshener next week, I'm not going to complain!! Don't get me wrong, I'm following this thread with anticipation, too, but it's all relative.
After all it is free
After all it is free
There has been perhaps an indication of a trend in today's runs which suggests systems once again pushing in from the north west in the second half of the month. The most recent GFS runs have been hinting that this might start somewhere around 17 to 19 January. This evening's ECM takes things colder before hand, but eventually delivers the same around 20 January. Though I would remain very cautious about it at this stage given the poor consistency.
According to Lawinenwarndienst Tirol snow depths have now exceeded existing records in some places with the depth in the Lech valley floor reaching 152cm. The recent run of four days of Level 4 avalanche warnings equalled that in winter 1999.
Over in the US it's been a mixed season so far overall.
That said Alaska is certainly reaping the benefits.
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nozawaonsen, I hope your right about another snowy spell around the 20th. Should freshen the listed up quite nicely for when inget out there early February!
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
18z introduces further snow from the north west from 18 January and keeps it going for the next week. See how it looks tomorrow, but it is starting to build up some consistency. It'll be interesting to see how the morning ECM run looks.
Hurrah for more snow on the way in the Alps, should freshen things up nicely before I go to St Anton. Did I mention I'm going to St Anton?
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Every run I see is pushing things colder and less snowy for the PdS region. Now looks like little or no new snow for w/c 14 January
I'm sure the snow will be good enough anyway, but I've never boarded in new snow for the 8 years I've been and was looking forward to it.
Is it likely that the snow cannons will be firing overnight if it's as cold as the ensembles appear to suggest?
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:
Is it likely that the snow cannons will be firing overnight if it's as cold as the ensembles appear to suggest?
in places where the natural snow is getting very thin, yes, probably (though in most places that won't be the case) but I'd hope they don't start firing the cannons otherwise; slightly elderly natural snow is preferable to artificial, IMHO.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Except yesterday's 00z GFS, 06z GFS, 12z GFS, 18z GFS. All of which had snow in that area in the second half of the week you are talking about?
This morning's output is less keen on snow from mid month. At this stage it doesn't mean it won't happen, just that without consistency you can't increase confidence.
Start of next week looks very pleasant. Sunny in the day (perhaps a little high cloud about, but quite possibly blue skies all round), very cold at night.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I saw snow cannons on last night around schladming. It's just finished dumping for the last 4 or5 days with huge amounts of snow. Beyond me why they need to make snow right now.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Hi all, another newbie addicted to this thread!!
Noza, thanks from me for all your work, very interesting
Mr merc, I am out in PdS now doing a season and the general consensus is that the snow conditions are some of the best they have ever seen, so really don't worry!!! It is absolutely gorgeous out here right now
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Noza, point noted, but the trend has been that each day the date of forecasted snow is put back later. Iirc, it's due to snow on 19 January now? Point taken about confidence and consistency. I won't complain if the sun is out next week to be honest, will make a break from the U.K.'s cloud cover!
Iain - thanks for that update, it's nice to hear someone out in PdS say that it's excellent. We are based in Chatel so will probably spend the Sunday there and rest of the week in Morzine and Avoriaz. I think we've picked a quite week as well as there are no school holidays that week.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
You'd rather it was cloudy and snowing, rather than skiing on a 3m deep base under blue skies?
Haha, not quite mate. As I say, each year I've gone, I've never had 'new snow' and reading through the reports on here, everyone seems to rave about the feeling of boarding on new snow.
Not that weird, I think? I'll be happy come what may and can't change it, just hoping for some fresh snow so I can see what you're all on about.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
waynos wrote:
I saw snow cannons on last night around schladming. It's just finished dumping for the last 4 or5 days with huge amounts of snow. Beyond me why they need to make snow right now.
The snow cannons in St Anton almost never stopped last week. Even whilst there was 2' of snow per day, the cannons continued.
Start of next week looks very pleasant. Sunny in the day (perhaps a little high cloud about, but quite possibly blue skies all round), very cold at night.
now thats the kind of forecast i like . mayrhofen on saturday
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:
The snow cannons in St Anton almost never stopped last week. Even whilst there was 2' of snow per day, the cannons continued
You never know when it is going to stop, they still have 4-5 months of the season left, the more they make and build it up the more it will last.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Looks pretty sunny now the next week + on the 06z. They keep putting any precipitation back.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
paulio,
agree with you there, jus back from LaTania only really had two good ski days the rest was watching the snow fall, left on Monday to bluebird
Still had great trip, and will post a report at weekend
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
I'm with mr_merc, haven't had a proper powder day in about 3 years now and I'd happily trade a few days stuck in town drinking bombardino and eating pasta for one. Still, pretty hard to complain about crisp, squeaky pistes, and clear blue sky. Thanks for the continuing updates guys, will report back from Italy when I get home on the 21st.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Could I please request the link to where you are getting the wiggly information from? Ta xx Its been AGES since I visited this thread and I haven't the patience to sit down and work out where I think I may have read it. Muchly appreciated..
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:
Looks pretty sunny now the next week + on the 06z. They keep putting any precipitation back.
Do it do it do it!!
To all who haven't seen Shrek 4, I apologise...
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I for one hope the snowfall isn't tooooo severe because I'll be out with a group of lads and I don't think my wallet (or liver!!) will survive if we can't get out to ski!
Few cm just to fill in tracks a bit would be acceptable I suppose...
Cheers Hedley, thats exactly the thread I was thinking about. Now I just have to work out the wigglies....and do a snow dance.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Today's output tends towards seeing the next snowfall pushing in around 19 January.
It looks like it will get cooler from the end of the week.
GFS then takes it milder again around the middle of next week, ECM keeps it colder.
By and large it looks pretty clear over the next week, bar Friday when light snow looks like pushing into the Austrian Alps.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Tue 17-01-12 12:43; edited 1 time in total
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Fruity wrote:
Cheers Hedley, thats exactly the thread I was thinking about. Now I just have to work out the wigglies....and do a snow dance.
Hope it's not too much effort for you.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looking at the weather maps you linked to the other day, Noza, the ECM map for 21/22 seems to have a big depresssion sat over the UK, and isobars flying in from the Atlantic and across the alps - isn't that the same pattern that brought all the snow just before Christmas? I know that far out it's not even worthy of the term "forecast" but for those of us out at half term in mid-Feb that looks like a bonus top-up and a half!
those of you heading to the Alps at half term better hope there's no repetition of all those closed roads, 10 hour traffic jams, sleeping in gyms, closed lifts and 5/5 avalanche warnings.
Having struggled to manage the pattern shift, a colder spell now looks very likely on both GFS and ECM as high pressure reaches up to Scandinavia. The cold is pushing in from the east and whilst it will be colder across the Alps it will be coldest in the east.
In terms of the ensembles the operational is in fact one of the milder options which suggests it could yet turn colder.
This same high pressure shuts out the milder air from the Atlantic and also the flow of low pressure systems which has been delivering heavy snow for the last few weeks.
From 19 January both models offer possibilities for snowier weather.
GFS +216 20 January
ECM +216 20 January
ECM is more striking.
The shift in pattern has not gone unnoticed in the US.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
andy from embsay, in general terms the pattern at the end of this morning's ECM is not dissimilar to the December 2010 pattern. High pressure builds over Greenland and part of the Polar Vortex splits and heads south.
BUT it is a bit far out, just one run and GFS, whilst bringing low pressure back into the picture, doesn't raise heights over Greenland and doesn't split the Polar Vortex over Europe (though does hint at something like this right at the end of the run). At the very least you'd want to see ECM sticking to it's guns this evening.
Here's a piece from Skiing magazine on the current conditions in the US.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
