 Poster: A snowHead
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| davidof wrote: |
2007 I think you mean. |
Yes, sorry I meant 06/07.
Glad to be going to a high resort this year.
Do you think it is the recession or the weather that will have the bigger impact on businesses in ski resorts?
didn't some british ski operators go under last year?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Snow for austria?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Nozawaonsen any chance of including the pyrenees occasionally (particularly formigal!) On your greatly appreciated reports many thanks
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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If anyone really loves this model discussion stuff - there's a thread on the TWO site forum....... like a whole bunch of "Nozawaonsens" throwing up charts and all sorts.......
A scandi high "cutter" is the phenomena of the day allegedly...
Its all very exciting...... no really it is
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Interestingly Paul Hudson calls out the chance for a return to cold as well, so he must think it's a possibility to raise his head above the parapet....
Looking further ahead, into the second half of February, pressure once again looks set to build to the North and East of the UK.
At the moment there are number of different scenarios. A minority of solutions, which can't be entirely discarded, plunge the UK back to a very cold and wintry easterly, but the majority have a more non-descript blocked pattern, with a prevailing South-easterly wind from the continent.
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| Quote: |
2007 I think you mean. No it will almost certainly be worse than that. In 2006/7 it snowed at the start of the season but we didn't have the high altitude rain that washed everything away. This will probably be the worst winter in the Northern Alps... for (dare I say it) a generation although things are uncannily similar to 2007 in a lot of respects. Excepting early December we didn't get significant snow that year until early March with a rapid end to the season due to lack of snow depth.
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Undoubtedly true for the French and maybe Swiss alps - but Austria and I suspect Italy have really faired reasonably well this year ( certainly parts) whereas if I remember 2007 it was a total washout everywhere for the first half of the season - so maybe worst season in places for a long time but not as universally bad as 2007? Certainly my week in eastern Austria - saltzburgerland in mid/late January was a veritable powderfest! 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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2007 wasn't so bad if you went high - had a very good few days skiing off pic blanc at Alpe d'Huez with the glaciers well filled in; later in the season, I did a tour in the Ecrins which involved a much longer walk (as opposed to ski) out than we had hoped for 
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I know this is the Euro weather thread but here in the PNW we seem to be having similar weather to what has been going on in Austria, more so the Eastern parts of Austria. Maybe it's a good omen, but our La Nina looks to be getting back on track. After a decent late Novemeber, and an incredible December, where the PNW ski areas received over 550+cm of snow during the start of the season, we have had quite the dry spell during January and first part of Feb.
Now the short term forecasts are for cold and wet weather with this pattern setting in for the medium term. All of January was either cold and dry, or warm and wet. Looks like the jet stream is shifting to the south, and allowing cold air from the North Artic and the Gulf of Alaska to start funneling down in Washington, Oregon, and North Idaho. This should allow for cooler, moist air coming off the pacific to meet up and have a snow party in the PNW. I guess a lot could happen with the jet stream traveling all the way across to Europe but if it tracks like it did in December...I hope it brings many gifts of snowflakes with it!
Back in 2003-'04 season we had a similar La Nina winter, but the warm and wet came in February. Temps on some days went all the way up to +14C at 2000 meters. But March and April received regular dumps of 30cm-40cm when the jet stream shifted over North California.
I seriously hope that while it's snowing here in the PNW during later Feb, and early March, that I will bring this good weather pattern with me to Europe. More precisely to places such as the Arlberg and the Jungfrau region. Expecting anywhere fm 15cm-25cm today in the Cascades fm Mt. Baker all the way to Mt. Hood. This is the first significant snow fall since Dec. 30th in which I skied 50+cm of light dry powder. Temps continue to drop from 0 C to -6C and to hold in the -6C to -9C this week. Snow level droping to as low as 400-500 meters.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Toadman, certainly not just a Euro thread! Just tends that way as that is where most people will be heading.
Some really interesting options for the Alps (and across the UK) out there this evening, following a theme which has been playing for a week or so. Cold from the east? But whether it delivers cold, and at least as importantly, whether it delivers snow in the Alps in the next two weeks or so is still very uncertain. But if you had to head into the uncertain you wouldn't mind heading into the uncertain armed with some of the charts we've had this evening.
There is though a slight tendency to see things shift to the right and that needs watching. If it does not move into high res then it is just a promise.
Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Mon 7-02-11 21:17; edited 1 time in total
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Very interesting charts tonight, a retrogressing high is something that could be good, as long as it delivers a moisture source to the western alps. That is what is needed now.
A lot of previous runs have kept a wetter theme going for 14th onwards its important we see that consistancy remaining. Best I have always found for a quick look at trends is either netweather.tv's ski centre or of course snow-forecast...but they go solely on the GFS (operational) I believe and thus the ECM if it is showing a better trend will not be factored.
Hard to determine what I would would prefer at the moment, renewed cold or some atlantic lows to deliver the white stuff. I think on balance, would have to be the latter.
Still, lovely charts from the ECM!
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JW_UK, welcome to snowheads!
It would be nice to see that option around the 14th crop up again tomorrow. Otherwise it starts to feel a little like snow tomorrow...
Still overall it's not a bad position to be in.
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You know it makes sense.
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Mister T, you were asking after the Pyrenees. Here are some nearby ensembles to Formigal.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_142_ens.png
Much like the French Alps the conditions are dry and warm. That said the Pyrenees had a fair amount of snow not too far back which the rest of France largely missed.
The outlook broadly mirrors the rest of the Alps. Temperatures dropping towards seasonal average around Valentine's Day. Dropping beneath. Bringing snow in from 17 February (possibly heavy - though wait a few days to get any real sense).
And on the basis of this evening's operational GFS temperatures plunging from about 19 Feb.
However, the threat of deep cold continues to lurk beyond the horizon. And until we can see it move into low res you have to treat it with a fair amount of scepticism...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
JW_UK, welcome to snowheads!
It would be nice to see that option around the 14th crop up again tomorrow. Otherwise it starts to feel a little like snow tomorrow...
Still overall it's not a bad position to be in. |
Thanks
Ive always lurked here, never posted, may as well start somewhere though only ever afford to go once per year! This year for me is Les Arc/La plange for 10 days come end of Feb, but am always on the eye out all over to be honest.
Agree on the 14th, its one of them hires/low res borders that really can be like waiting for a bus which never arrives. Need the hi res to play ball for the 14th. The good news is that the GFS 18z operational output at least brings snow out to play from Sunday onwards..in fact next week really would be very snowy for much of the alps. The ensembles, makes the operational 18z of the GFS look slightly wetter.
If by Weds/Thurs snow is still a week away I wouldnt be so happy and i need to analyse some jet charts more to spot trends. aside from that and to answer any long term patterns...there are all sorts of theories, the reality is, likely to be a mixture of all of them.
Fingers crossed for next week all!
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Poster: A snowHead
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18z not quite as cold as 12z, but for the Alps deep cold is probably less important than snow. And 18z looks good for that in FI... And starting to look good as it comes into low res... Patience required, but so far so good...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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00z GFS run shows the evolution we definitely don't want. A big high pressure system builds over Spain, west France and the British Isle. This stops the Atlantic in it's tracks and will result in little precipitation, at least in the western Alps.
Ensembles look better.
I'm not sure what to make of the 0z ECMWF. Not cold, but possibly snowy.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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philmes, am I looking at different wigglies to you? This morning's look great to me. Average temperatures for time of year and plenty of precipitation from 12th Feb onwards. It would be fab if that became reality.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
am I looking at different wigglies to you?
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more than likely - there are different ones, so if you don't like one lot you can always take the other. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
Mattmulkeen, you make it sound like a species.
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I can report that the weather wookies on TWO are less than impressed this morning - although it is more UK focussed. Maybe I could make first contact and befriend one or two of them, if they can be tamed they could be useful!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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waynos, see my comment above. The potential for snow in Austria from Friday has been playing around for a while now... Fingers crossed.
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Anyone know how its looking for Switzerland, in particular Verbier/ 4 Vallees? Getting more than a bit concerned for my 12th March trip, any clues yet re more snow in this area........TBPH I do not understand the above charts!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Markymark29, general picture is cooling temperatures and likely snow (more likely in second half of the week at the moment). Far from certain though...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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nozawaonsen, Cheers, I'll not go out and buy a kayak yet then!
Anymore feedback greatly appreciated......
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there has been mention of " low res" when does that occur? 48 hours before?
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You know it makes sense.
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| phillip33 wrote: |
| there has been mention of " low res" when does that occur? 48 hours before? |
GFS switches to a lower spatial and temporal resolution after 192 hours.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Markymark29 wrote: |
| Anyone know how its looking for Switzerland, in particular Verbier/ 4 Vallees? Getting more than a bit concerned for my 12th March trip, any clues yet re more snow in this area........TBPH I do not understand the above charts! |
FFS, thats over a month away!!! Chill out!
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Poster: A snowHead
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kitenski, misread the initial post! Thought it refered to 12 Feb!
Markymark29, honestly wouldn't be worrying at this stage.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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06z operational continues to reassert high pressure influence over over Spain and France. That's not great news.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Liking the 6z, throws up a fair amount of potential Philmes?
Id say the consistance of wetter vs drier runs does look better for france for sun-wed next week. Low res from the 06z run commences at 6Am next Wednesday. Thus anything in a closer time frame can be regarded as slightly more reliable. On the four frence regions covering the french alps (and I chose france because I use meteociel.fr) the 06z would appear to be slightly wetter earlier in the period (i.e. 14th).
ECMWF makes it slightly less mobile in the time period it covers than the GFS actually, GFS has a habit of overcooking the lows, have to see what happens in future runs.
In summary, last 8-10 runs in my opinion have shown at least a chance of snow from 14th-17/18th next week. They have kept it at roughly the 14th and thats the trend I shall follow. I hope Mondays ski club of GB update is full of joy lol.
Ill miss the 12 and 18z's tonight. Perils of life.
Happy model watching
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| JW_UK wrote: |
| Liking the 6z, throws up a fair amount of potential Philmes? |
Potential is there, however both the 0z and 6z have shown something like this developing which cuts off the Atlantic flow.
You just know that were something synoptically similar to develop, the centre of the ridge would be 500 miles further north east.
Long way in the future though, so not really worth worrying about. The ensembles are promising once again.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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06z looked pretty good to me for next week, especially for France.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 06z looked pretty good to me for next week, especially for France. |
For next week, yes. Good support for plenty of precipitation. The operational is an outlier for the period after that as well.
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Maybe Stormageddon will hit us in the 2nd half of February?
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| Quote: |
Maybe Stormageddon will hit us in the 2nd half of February?
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Wouldn't be surprised. Went walking this morning, quiet path looking over the Hauteluce Valley. Warm sunshine, blue skies, walking in light clothing, nice picnic lunch. Did feel a bit like the calm before the storm.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
Maybe Stormageddon will hit us in the 2nd half of February?
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Wouldn't be surprised. Went walking this morning, quiet path looking over the Hauteluce Valley. Warm sunshine, blue skies, walking in light clothing, nice picnic lunch. Did feel a bit like the calm before the storm. |
yes it has that eery feeling to it...
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pam w, I wouldn't worry too much yet. The GFS (wigglies) have looked the same for a month now. They all show and have shown, snow in 5-10 days time.
Until we see a GFS with snow in the next 2-3 days I will remain forlorn.
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FAQ
