 Poster: A snowHead
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I'm always surprised at these photos, presumably taken by avalanche professionals - is it not dangerous standing there? I know the slope below has already slid, and maybe if above the crown was going to go it would have gone with it, but is it not the same slope with the same aspect and the same snow build up...?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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In my opinion, how trustworthy long term prognosis are depends very much of what kind of large scale situation you are in. Long term prognosis are also usually more reliable in the winter time compared to the summer season. If you have stable blocking highs either over the continent, azores or Scandinavia during the winter season, the long term forecast become more reliable. This season, the long term weather has been easier to predict. You have had a strong polar vortex and a strongly positive AO index since Christmas time. The AO will again go up to very high levels after 5th of February.
Thus, just as the EC monthly predicts yesterday, it is very likely that we will see some kind of high in the rest of February from next weekend. In other periods, a prognosis like EC monthly is more or less just noise.
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In addition, when all the teleconnections like the MJO support such a development in addition to more and more support from both GFS and EC operationals and ensambles, long term forecast are as good as they gets at the moment.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Personally I am liking the effect of the recent wet snow in Valais areas and the forecast past Monday. Yes it's warm, near 40f... but 40 to 70 percent of recent snow will remain to help heal the effects of the dry January. I think a very good shot of skiing is just ahead and the last few days were damn good too. Pistes also in good shape obviously. Chin up.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
What’s interesting (to me) this morning is the strength of Atlantic.
The jet is really racing along.
So for now at least the FI outlook does not look like the high pressure dominated settled conditions of earlier in January. It’s something a lot more wild altogether. Of course whether it dips down to the Alps and if so what the impact would be remains unclear. But a small shift to a more NW flow could bring cold and snow. Conversely could be wet and stormy. Plenty to keep interest. |
I'm glad you posted these visuals. The screaming jet was something I noticed and mentioned yesterday. It is definitely not what I want to see. In my experience it makes snow and cold less likely. It pushes a warm Atlantic airmass deep into Europe and displaces any lingering cold air far to the east. This make the in situ airmass relatively stale even if a storm approaches, leading to relatively high snow levels. And if a trough and storm do approach, the fast jet upstream tends to prevent the digging and negative tilting of the trough (these processes can lead to large, range-wide storms). Instead it tends to lead to cutofffs that harmlessly drift southwesterward or positively tilted, progressive troughs that bring a quick front to the N or NW Alps.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@altaski8, like this? Looks like typical +NAO weather to my untrained eye
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@nozawaonsen, Good point regarding the jet.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@luigi, well it would be, but it was two runs ago now and hadn’t really shown much sign of reappearing. Still always something to look forward to!
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Well down Sarf could well mildest day of the year as looks like we'll break into double figs today.
And fear not the snow god's will do their thing (Retour d'Est etc) from next Friday as we leave the Alps for the Land of the Rising Sun 
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You know it makes sense.
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| Weathercam wrote: |
And fear not the snow god's will do their thing (Retour d'Est etc) from next Friday as we leave the Alps for the Land of the Rising Sun |
Excellent news, we can expect winter to start, the curse of Weathercam will be lifted on the Alps at last !
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Good news bad news on the 12z GFS.
Good news: Tue/Wed continues to look like a significant snow event for all of the northern Alps.
Bad news: the rest of the run looks pretty ugly; warm and possibly wet.
The climate indices also continue to look pretty bleak in the long range. But days 7+ don't look completely hopeless on the GFS charts... it wouldn't take a huge reorientation of the jet structure to result in a slightly colder/snowier solution. But I would book high elevation ski resorts to be safe.
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Poster: A snowHead
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This is showing up again around 10/11 February. It would bring cold and snow to the northern side of the Alps, but potentially arrive with a bang (ie possibly rain to snow).
Of course too far out to take very seriously, but interesting to keep an eye on and in particular the angle of approach.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The European Alps are, once again, in the grip of global boiling.
Snowfall 50-80% below-average in January.
Most everywhere green below ~1500m.
Heavy rain in Austria today.
A foot of snowmelt in Swtitzerland in under a week.
Temp this lunchtime around +15c in Germany resorts.
Bulgaria has near-zero natural snow below ~1800m.
Heavy rain in Scotland.
A dream early-season has been followed by a nitemare mid-season.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Hmmm. Tell you what. You can’t spell nightmare.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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There was 30 minutes of light rain in Austria this morning followed by a lovely warm sunny day with perfect albeit spring like conditions down to 800m. Yesterday was a fantastic cold powder day. Not all doom here and all white in the valleys.
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Well no doubt it’s going to be a bit minging at times this weekend, Sunday could be a good day for getting to the bar early to get a seat for the rugby. Also little doubt about climate change, but somehow I just don’t get the feeling that @Whitegold, is interested in that as a serious subject for discussion as opposed to a tool for trolling.
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| Quote: |
| somehow I just don’t get the feeling that @Whitegold, is interested in that as ... a tool for trolling. |
They guy's got to get his kicks from somewhere... he obviously never gets to go skiing... 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@nozawaonsen, anything in the pipeline for Isola?
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@mikeycharlton, Lots of nice sunshine!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @mikeycharlton, Lots of nice sunshine! |
I guess that's better than rain...
Not going for another 6 weeks, so no need to panic yet, although a top up would always be welcome.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Well no doubt it’s going to be a bit minging at times this weekend, Sunday could be a good day for getting to the bar early to get a seat for the rugby. Also little doubt about climate change, but somehow I just don’t get the feeling that @Whitegold, is interested in that as a serious subject for discussion as opposed to a tool for trolling. |
Watching the 6 Nations in a lovely bar in the Alps is one of the highlights of the season for me, bloody love it.
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You know it makes sense.
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Should be doing a ski tour with mates from work this weekend but we had to cancel as it's just too warm. 14 Deg C and sunny is forecast so might take the mountain bike out for a ride - FFS it's end of Jan not April !!!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Yet more cold smoke on the way next week...
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Poster: A snowHead
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| BobinCH wrote: |
Yet more cold smoke on the way next week...
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Only Tuesday-Wednesday. And it could be widespread 25cm+ across the north. But then it's back to warm again.
Until then, the melt is on, despite a relatively low sun angle.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| altaski8 wrote: |
| BobinCH wrote: |
Yet more cold smoke on the way next week...
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Only Tuesday-Wednesday. And it could be widespread 25cm+ across the north. But then it's back to warm again.
Until then, the melt is on, despite a relatively low sun angle. |
Erm guess you didn’t see the snow on Sunday 
This warm you speak of is not really a problem above 2000m. So go high, ski powder and enjoy the sunshine!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| altaski8 wrote: |
| BobinCH wrote: |
Yet more cold smoke on the way next week...
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Only Tuesday-Wednesday. And it could be widespread 25cm+ across the north. But then it's back to warm again.
Until then, the melt is on, despite a relatively low sun angle. |
It’s all going to melt by the start of February, we’re doomed, get the kayaks and the paddle-boards out of storage ... blimey, there’s so much negativity by some on this thread. Chill out.
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| altaski8 wrote: |
| But then it's back to warm again. |
Erm... it will be nice and sunny after fresh snow. Surely you can squeeze a tiny bit of fun out of that? Surely? I mean if you can’t then. Well.
How much have you actually been out and about this season so far? Has it really been that miserable?
Because it comes down to this. Plenty of really good skiers on this forum have been out enjoying themselves so far this season. Look at the reports from people like @BobinCH, @clarky999, or @Weathercam. Now this is a tough season in terms of snowfall and temperatures, but somehow those looking to get in amongst it and enjoy have been able to do so over and again. So it’s there to be had. And I’ve been out there myself too and seen it for myself. Which leads me to the really rather inescapable conclusion that there is fun to be had, but perhaps some people don’t want to have fun.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@altaski8, both GFS and ECM suggesting snow (for higher northern Austrian alps at least) Sunday 2nd , Tuesday / Wednesday 4th & 5th and Monday 10th (GFS suggesting more widespread snow around 14th too). No doubt mild and dry interludes as well and the further away periods are all rather uncertain. To my untutored eye this looks like a typical +NAO pattern exactly as the models were suggesting as far back as October. As @nozawaonsen, has pointed out +NAO does generally mean mild but the wet bit that often comes with it can bring considerable snow to higher elevations. The low areas in the Bavarian alps near Munich are having very poor seasons, but that is hardly a rare occurrence. The higher areas, especially the snow magnets of western Austria, are having perfectly good, if not outstanding, seasons.
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@nozawaonsen, tbh it is each to their own. For me, just happy to be out the office, in the mountains, hot choc mit run, vin chaud, good ski days with Mrs R, sun, etc etc but some are not as easily please and at the end of the day it gets dark. Not everyone is as easy pleased but I had a fab 4 days in Saalbach. So much so I am returning in 2 weeks. There will be snow on the piste and I will ski. Good enough for me.
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sat 1-02-20 8:07; edited 1 time in total
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@RetroBod, at the end of the day it gets dark is indeed something to reflect upon. So enjoy the light whilst you can.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| BobinCH wrote: |
| altaski8 wrote: |
| BobinCH wrote: |
Yet more cold smoke on the way next week...
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Only Tuesday-Wednesday. And it could be widespread 25cm+ across the north. But then it's back to warm again.
Until then, the melt is on, despite a relatively low sun angle. |
Erm guess you didn’t see the snow on Sunday
This warm you speak of is not really a problem above 2000m. So go high, ski powder and enjoy the sunshine! |
Erm guess you don't know what cold smoke is.
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Tues wed storm riding, thurs morning shaping up to be superb, probably lots of soft stuff for days to come above 2000m and on north facing slopes, everywhere will get a refresh both on piste and aesthetics, and certainly hope for more the week after. Pretty good I would say.
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FAQ
