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The All New 13/14 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Pedantica, what he / she said .
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
12z GFS slams the Alps back into the freezer from 19 March.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Eccelente! Cool
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nozawaonsen wrote:
12z GFS slams the Alps back into the freezer from 19 March.


With snow if I am reading it right Toofy Grin
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franga, I'm in les Arc just now and yes the pistes Are freezing over night. Everything is holding up well despite the warm temps.
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SkiG wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
12z GFS slams the Alps back into the freezer from 19 March.


With snow if I am reading it right Toofy Grin


With snow would be very nice! If official snow reports are to be believed, then Val Thorens has lost 20cm from it's snow base since Friday!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
really!? is it that warm that high up??
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
So, if ye weather experts had a week of booked from March 17th, as I have, where would you recommend in Europe for snow surety??
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SkiG wrote:
really!? is it that warm that high up??


I know, it shocked me too - but snow depths since Friday have gone from 155cm to 135cm on the lower slopes in VT, and from 255cm to 240cm on the upper slopes. I'm not sure how accurate the official snow depth reports are, I swear they make it up as the go along!

But if this is the effect on somewhere as high as VT, it makes you wonder what's happening in the lower resorts!
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We're doomed!
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Haha Jonpim, love it!! I really don't know why I get myself into such a panic - I know in 2 weeks time when I'm happily skiing away, I'll be thinking what was I worrying about!!!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

12z GFS slams the Alps back into the freezer from 19 March.


It's up and down like the proverbial at the moment.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So I fly out to Grand Massif on 16th march, 17th is my first ski day, last ski day is the 20th. im looking at quite a mixed bag in terms of weather, temperatures, and potentially snowfall?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
So I fly out to Grand Massif on 16th march, 17th is my first ski day, last ski day is the 20th. im looking at quite a mixed bag in terms of weather, temperatures, and potentially snowfall?

Yup, downhill all the way snowHead
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014031012/gfs-1-240.png?12
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014031012/gfs-0-240.png?12
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
18z GFS shows the jet pushing cold air down into Europe hitting the Alps on 19 March.

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Weathercam wrote:
nozawaonsen, one thing in France that I don't understand is that the Avalanche bulletins are always issued at 15:00hrs the day before Puzzled


MASSIF THABOR ( Rédigé le 08 mars 2014 à 15h )
Estimation du risque jusqu'au dimanche 9 mars au soir

So what happens if it's dumped with snow and been high winds in the time after it's been issued, they never update it to take that into account which you would have thought would be the case, unless I'm missing something obvious rolling eyes

What happens in Austria / Switzerland ?


You are missing something obvious, they update the bulletin if the facts change. The swiss issue a bulletin in the afternoon and the following morning.
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Handy Turnip wrote:
SkiG wrote:
really!? is it that warm that high up??


I know, it shocked me too - but snow depths since Friday have gone from 155cm to 135cm on the lower slopes in VT, and from 255cm to 240cm on the upper slopes. I'm not sure how accurate the official snow depth reports are, I swear they make it up as the go along!

But if this is the effect on somewhere as high as VT, it makes you wonder what's happening in the lower resorts!


A lot of that will be the fresh snow settling, don't worry. Below 1300m is nearly always finished by mid March except where they have done snowmaking.

As an aside my nearest resort has just closed, they would have wanted to go to the 16th. They told me the average temperature at 1000m was -1.6C this winter and their snowmaking comes on at -3C, they have made snow on only 7 days during the season. However 100 meters higher up at the next resort and conditions are still ok with good overnight refreezes keeping things fresh. The rot really sets in after the equinox when days are longer than nights.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Good thing then that it will (hopefully) get cold on March 19th
Equinox is March 20. Smile
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This morning's GFS ensembles now clearly showing the type if pattern ECM has been proposing for a day or two with the current mild spell starting to unwind by the weekend, rebuilding early next week, before temperatures fall sharply (especially in the east) from 19 March. Whether that presages a more substantial shift to cold weather is unclear at this stage. It's certainly a strong possibility in the GFS ensembles, but ECM is less keen this morning.
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Dear Diary, Day 100...

100 DAYS OF HEAVY SNOW: Britain now facing worst winter in SIXTY YEARS warn forecasters

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK

That James Madden quote in full...

"What Britain faces this winter is an incomparable scenario to anything we have experienced in modern times."

It has of course been very wet in the UK and pretty mild. The Scottish mountains have seen copious amounts of snow. But that wasn't really what Madden or The Express were suggesting.
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nozawaonsen, Laughing Well, he was right about the wind and precipitation. Got temperature a bit wrong but hey, two out of three. And it sold lots of newspapers and winter tyres. wink
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen, any sign of new snow in the models for Grand Massiff?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
pam w, the key bit about wind is not only speed, but also where it comes from.
Madden predicted Arctic gales, which presumably would have brought snow.
What we got were Carribean gales, so he only go the wind half right
(sorry, OCD tablets not working properly today Sad )
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Jonpim, if you're doing OCD, it's Caribbean... wink
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davidof, well I have been monitoring the bulletins a fair bit and have not seen any thing ever written after 15:00 as I mentioned in my OP in that I've looked after strong winds and snow overnight (would call those "facts change") maybe just a coincidence in that they have not changed when I've looked or I have not consciously noted the time rolling eyes

Obviously does make sense to change them if there's a dramatic difference, but there again this is France Puzzled
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pam w, OCD but can't spell. rolling eyes
Maybe you could reccomend me some diffrent tablits

If you have access to snowforecast out to 9 days: temperatures, the freezing level, and wind are up and down by the minute.
Mid morning it was -2C on the 19th with 35kph (mph?) winds from north east.
Now its back to +2C and 15kph winds from north west.
Brilliant snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Jonpim, Laughing
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
"Winter on Sunday" - according to this website for northern Austria. Very Happy http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Wetter-am-Sonntag-Winterlich-Schnee-und-Kaelte/135632271
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Das ist gut so, ich hoffe es stimmt! snowHead
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Looking at Tignes, whilst the temp drop on the 19th seems to have stayed consistent, the precipitation seems to have dwindled away to just about nothing now Crying or Very sad
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SkiG, you will be absolutely fine in Tignes. High town to start with, with very high skiing. I'm staying in Samoens which is at 800m, and I'm not really worrying that much so you certainly shouldn't!!!
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nozawaonsen, could you please give us a detailed oversight into the next week of weather for the western alps? Rough temps, weather in general please? Any snow forecast at all?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Ricklovesthepowder, I thought you weren't bothered? wink you might find it useful to keep an eye on http://chamonix-meteo.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/weather/ Chamonix is not far from Samoens and is generally in the same kind of weather pattern. They usually update the forecast around 8 - 9 am (French time) and sometimes in the evening, too. They do quite a good job - it's not just the output from a computer model.

Interesting that the big high pressure area over the British Isles is leading to the sort of temperature inversion we often see in the Alps in similar weather, with lows of -6 in Aberdeen and +7 up on the top of the Cairngorms.
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Ricklovesthepowder, a detailed oversight for next week isn't possible with any degree of certainty.
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pam w, shhhhh!!!! Toofy Grin

Just trying to figure out what to pack more than anything. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday look like t-shirt weather! Still uncertain about the potential cold spell coming in towards the end of next week though. We have only got 1 hold baggage between us as Anna isn't skiing so need to pack accordingly.

I will have a look at that link later on, thanks.
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Here you all you go (c/o my mates account), looking very warm beginning of the week Crying or Very sad







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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
At times like this it's comforting to think about how pointless 9 day forecasts really are. Though it must be even more comforting for those who sell them that some people are nonetheless willing to pay for them. wink
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
pam w, mind you unfortunately like for this past week when it's high pressure they are quite accurate - and as I said that's my mates account.

When all the various models are in agreement then that's when there's a better degree certainty.

Anyway doesn't really matter for you as a piste skier wink
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This is perhaps the best week weatherwise of the season in Europe.
Clear skies across the Alps, Scotland and Lake District. Perfect conditions and very dry and sunny across the slopes today in the UK. No wind and humidity down below 30% which is drying things out nicely. Enjoy if you can. snowHead
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I'd struggle somewhat to give a detailed picture for next week, but broadly speaking the set up looks the same as it did yesterday morning.

This week's mild temperatures look like falling to seasonal average or a little below at the weekend. This will bring cloud across the Alps and possibly light snow in Austria. The start of next week will see pressure and temperatures rise again with conditions clearing. Should produce some very pleasant spring conditions though warm. The second half of the week looks likely to be colder particularly in the eastern Alps. Some fresh snow is certainly possible, but it's too far out to have any confidence.

So likely to be a week of two differing halves at this stage, though it's still unclear how substantial any cold spell will be from midweek (some of the recent output suggests it could be relatively brief).

RLTP stop being cheap and buy some extra luggage space so your wife can bring the clothes she needs. wink
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