 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
snow-forecast.com is saying 17degrees in La Tania Fri/Sat next week, I hope skanky's cooler period follows on shortly, as I'm off to La Tania for the last week of the season 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
I know - metcheck showing freezing levels of around 3,500m for wed, thur, fri next week... unbelievable... how bloody hot is it going to be at resort level? Trouble is, usually there's a good packed depth of snow there to cope with the spring temps, whereas this year there's only a fifth of the usual cover where I'm off to next Sunday... bug, bug and bug again...
I kid you not... this happens to me too often to be a coincidence! I have upset a weather god somewhere... No matter where or when I book for, there is usually a freak condition or poor snow year wherever I go. I'm thinking of charging for information on where I'm booked for so that people can guarantee good conditions by going elsewhere! The first year I went ('93) I had heavy snow as I arrived then 5 days of sunshine. That appears to have been my lot... ever since then (every year apart from one) I've had either freak winds, rain, early thaws, foehn winds, unseasonably small amounts of snow (usually rectified the day after I leave the country) or all of the above. In 11 years of trips, I've had 3 powder days (apart from the first trip in '93) out of a possible 80-odd days... and one of them (Sauze D'Oulx, '95) was accompanied by tornado-like winds so the snow didn't hang around! This, bear in mind, is not always in the same month of the year, rather spread throughout all months from December to April.
I'm obviously just unlucky... 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
carled, is there really only 1/5 of the normal level? what about at the higher levels of where you are going?
PS I tell ya, its the same as last year, see my previous post....all is not lost yet chap, lets face it if we wanna go skiing in april we have to accept that the snow isnt going to be quite as good as it would be about now , dont despair, the positive thing is that its been unseasonably cold up until now, so the snow is in good nick!
The best thing to do is be positive and dont let it get you down, 'what will be will be'...although in fairness i was exactly the same as you last year...but figure no point in losing hair over something none of us have any control over....the weather! Having said that, i can see you frustration given your previous experiences!
PPS Im going skiing on the 9th April, so i am as keen as you to see the end of this predicted warm spell
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
carled,
Don't dispar, life's like that. I had almost no powder experience, but for the last 8 years have been going on a January 5 day weekend timed to co-incide with the new moon (dark arts at work here...) and we have had 14/15 powder days in the last 3 years, uninterrupted sun the previous 3 years in blistering cold.
I'm off in ten days so share your concerns, but the Met Office monthly forecast has the weather turning colder again at the end of March with northerly airflows re-establishing for easter / early April 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
Have a look at Serre Chevalier's average snow depth for last week in March at the ski club site - 250cm top, 50cm bottom. Current conditions 50cm top, 20cm bottom. One week (at least) of VERY warm weather coming up before we arrive on Sunday...
Skanky - looks like the cold spell ain't going to happen: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel2.html
Looking at the precip chart for middle of next week: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel4.html
...see that big band of moisture sweeping in from the Atlantic? What are the chances of it being cold enough on the mountain to fall as snow rather than rain, do you think?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
Martin Nicholas:
northerly airflows re-establishing for easter / early April
|
Yep - that fits in with my prediction of snowfall re-establishing itself as soon as I leave the country. I'm there 20th - 27th March - you watch the Serre Che conditions starting from Easter Sunday onwards!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The HP is looking to firmly establish itself this week, so I can't see much of a breakdown before next weekend. The FAX charts are now showing it to be quiote extensive by Sunday. The following week really is too far to look at at the moment, but I wouldn't rule out a cooler period at some point from mideek onwards - though as I say, once these HPs form they can be very hard to shift. In that 9-panel image, look to the west. There's an area of cooler air out there (associated with a decent LP). That's what you want to move in. Basically if everything between now and then is correct and that chart is correct (at this range that's an especially moot point) it's going to run up against the HP and it'll either scoot off north over Scotland, or as it's a deep depression it may be able to push its way further south and bring precip and northerlies into Europe. I can't see it lasting too long but it could top the snow up enough for a decent Easter. Can't put it any better than 50/50 at the moment and I don't like looking further than +180h anyway.
Latest UKMO and ECMWF are suggesting the LP will win out.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
"deep depression"... what an apt meteorological term... 
What about the proposed precipitaion charts Skanky? Too far ahead to comment?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Not sure, as/if the HP moves west it will start to draw more warm and wet air from over the Atlantic further into Europe (if the HP remains large and centered over the Alpine region it tend s not to bring any air in, and any that does has come from Africa over a relatively short sea track). That's what you're seeing there with rain being brought into Spain and France (the Pyrennees may do well, but there would be a high FL). France is quite big and the there's the Massive Central to get past too, so precipitation will tend to die out as it comes across - if you have it moving across a warm land mass (heated by increasing sunshine) the air will warm as well and so FLs coule be higher. You really want frontal precipitation as that can take it further into the continent, though it tends to die out as it runs against HP. The charts you've shown show a warm front running northwards along the side of the HP, through France and up into northern Europe at the arly part of the weekend. It may bring some precip to parts of the Alps, it depends on the state of the HP and how far the front moves in - and as it's a warm front FL will be high. It is then followed by a cold front (relatively) that could bring more precip generally and cooler air further north but the winds are just too southerly to for it to be much cooler further south. However ECMWF and UKMO are not showing the same detail (though similar general set-up) and I'll say it again, it's way too far ahead. The general scenario is very plausible, but the outcome (and more importantly the detail) will vary over the next few days, but the trend is fairly consistent at the moment.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
06z GFS showing more precipitation from the fronts over the weekend (mainly Sunday). Worth keeping an eye on as it'll probably chop and change over the next few days but it (and the following Wednesday are worth checking). Not bad agreement with UKMO & ECMWF either.
Ensembles for Geneva show a distinct trend to wetter and cooler weather, but details tend to diverge from Sat/Sun onwards.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
What do all the differnt thin coloured lines refer to on that ensemble chart Skanky?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
skanky, can you explain that chart a bit to me, what exactly does it show?
sorry, im not an expert! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
Each line is a different run of the model. The main blue line is the operational run that produces the charts, the others are runs with slightly altered input values (to cope with input data inaccuracies and the fact that the system is a chaotic one). The top set of lines are the 850pha (roughly 1500m height) air temperatues and read off the left hand scale and the lower set are precipitation in (liquid) milimetres and read off the right hand scale. The white line is the ensemble mean. The more closely grouped the lines are (esp. around the mean), the better the confidence. If the operational run is inside this banding then more confidence can be assigned to it. If there is a banding and some runs differ greatly from the banding then they "outliers" and low confidence is assigned to them (this can occur for the operational run). You're basically looking at trends and groupings.
Worth pointing out that this is for Geneva but it's reasonable for giving a general trend for that part of the area.
DGOrf has a way of getting the same data for a specific place as long as you know the lat & long of it. If you do a search it'll turn up.
[EDIT:] To illustrate how much the detail is changing, the 12z run has completely down graded the Sunday precip for the Alps but is pushing for some decent stuff on the following Wednesday. Looking at the Geneva Ensemble for the 06z run, that it could flip it on and off and remain reasonably consistent.
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Mon 14-03-05 18:13; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
skanky, is that cause for optimism for the end of March then?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
tomski01, probably.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
tomski01, The fact that I'll be heading back to Blighty at the end of March is what should be cause for optimism!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
Sorry carled, im praying to the weather gods for you now. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
Well, carled, maybe there is heart to be taken in the fact that whenever the forecasters update their temperature forecasts for the next few days they tend to be revising them in a downward direction
(did that make sense, i hope so!)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
Yes, I must say I'm starting to eye the middle of next week with interest... can only hope it comes forward slightly! That ensemble thingy that Skanky provided is creeping nearer and nearer the magical zero line. Also both Wetterzentrale and the Ensemble forecast seem to concur at present on the likelihood of decent precipitation - hopefully snow - around Wednesday next week... fingers crossed hard...
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| Quote: |
| Wetterzentrale and the Ensemble forecast seem to concur at present |
That's because they're the same model output
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
Skanky:
That's because they're the same model output
|
doh!
The precip chart I usually look at is the http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel4.html one. It's the Wed 23/Thu 24 one that currently looks well interesting to me. Is this what is reflected in the peaks at the bottom of the ensemble graph?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yeah, those charts are for the operational run the "Hauptlauf" or thick, blue one. You can lose it when there's a strong grouping (esp. in the precip region), but that tends to be a good sign.
[EDIT] It can also get lost in the precipitation area as it's running along the origin - ie. 0. Sorry, should have mentioned that.
Last edited by After all it is free  on Tue 15-03-05 18:05; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
La Rosiere local meteo has changed dramatically, they were forecasting minus temps and some snow for later today, now all the temps are plus and no snow forecast. My son tells me it was +9 at 2,000 metres yesterday but it's still very cold at night so snow is holding up well.
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Tue 15-03-05 12:39; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
... but forecast to get even warmer this weekend, and into at least the early part of next week....
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Currently, it's looking like the next bout of precip is likely to early next week and the LP systems push into the UK and their fronts extend down through Europe. Sunday's fronts look less and less likely to reach the Alps - though the Pyrennees may well get some, but Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday could see two or three fronts push through as the LPs pile up on top of each other. This is getting pretty reasonable agreement between the models (haven't looked at JMA & GEM though). Whether thr fronts get that far will depend on how much the HP gives way, but I should think one or two of them will. However, I think we need to hope that they come through overnight as the longer that the winds are in this direction, the more the region will warm up. By next week the FL could get up above 1500m even at night and may reach 2000m in some places (I think - I'm still using the very rough/basic measurement that brian suggested, and there will be other modifiers). Still plenty of time for that to change, and if any of the LPs does get through, it'll bring more northerly air behind it....no sign of that in the near future yet, though.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
Latest GFS has squeezed the ridge more and so the colder air stays further west for longer and Austria and eastern Switzerland and Italy stay keep the colder air until early next week while the rest of the Alps doesn't get quite so warm quite so quickly. This is different from the last couple of runs so things are still not clear on the timing of the really warm stuff.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
carled, I shall pray with you. Who is the coolest god?. Should be great if the temps drop a bit more (hopeful smiley)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
Midday 16th March in the Vallouise valley between Serre Che and PSV and it is 21 degress C in the shade!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
 Nnnnnooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Open your fridges everyone!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
PSV and Serre Che are still skiable though and you can get a great tan too!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| carled wrote: |
| Nnnnnooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Open your fridges everyone! |
What, and add to global warming? That's what got us into this mess in the first place!
(that and the usual passage of the seasons of course...)
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
They're suggesting a FL of about 2000m - though other factors will influence the actual height in various places.
It's not looking as bad for parts of Austria and possibly eastern Italy & Switzerland.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
500 for hors piste, 2000 for freerider
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bear in mind it doesn't have to be zero to snow... Maybe we'll get lucky and cold air will come in just enough to make it snow rather than rain at resort level.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
