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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Rothorn http://www.matterhornparadise.ch/webcams/Zermatt_Rothorn_pos1/current.jpg?ver=1476379464370Zermatt. Live webcam shows reasonably heavy snow.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Doesn't look like much settled at Mid level in Zermatt last PM. Although some falling on Gornergrat / Trockner at the moment. Hopefully it sticks around before the temps jump tomorrow.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Little action in Mediterrain...

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There is over 2m forecast for Zermatt (over next 9 days) Shock snowHead.....freezing level gradually dropping from around 2500m from Wed onwards, to about 2000m or slightly below.
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A milder spell at present, before cooling down mid week. Snow showers down to 1100m in the eastern Alps at the end of this week. Looks like this will be followed by warmer weather.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
A milder spell at present, before cooling down mid week. Snow showers down to 1100m in the eastern Alps at the end of this week. Looks like this will be followed by warmer weather.


Looks like a bit more than showers. Could be half a metre.
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@snowheads68, out of curiosity what makes you say that and for where? I can see maybe 20+cms maximum locally at altitude over the period I was referring to, but happy to be persuaded otherwise.
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@snowheads68, can't have been that particular chart you were referring to in your earlier comment as that one hadn't been updated to the 18z run at that stage. But it's a fair point that the 18z GFS op run is more bullish. Let's see how it looks tomorrow.
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@matejp,

I found Gavs ECMWF Seasonal Model Forecast Interpretation from yesterday an interesting listen (plus the comparison charts between now and this time last year).
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Tignes on Sunday


http://youtube.com/v/o-SFoVPEgn4
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
davidof, wonderful stuff.
(who's the bloke with the broad grin and impressive beard?)
And was that really yesterday?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@davidof, trying to get my bearings on that video, are they skiing down to the RHS of the glacier as you face up hill, where there is a T bar? I see all the jumps/fun park there.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Good, new analysis of Swiss snowfall.

Maximum snowdepth in Switzerland has plunged -25% in the past 45 years.

There were almost 40 fewer snow days in 2015 than in 1970.

The snowfall decrease and melting increase are happening at all altitudes -- low, mid and high:

https://www.thelocal.at/20160929/high-altitude-ski-resorts-losing-their-snow
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Millom: True, very interesting listen. I try to apply his forecasts for the Alps since he's predicting winter for UK and I think (probably wrong) cold winter in UK is not always a good sign for the winter in the Alps. Although the jet-stream is placed in southern Europe which will bring moisture from Mediterranean and Atlantic to the Alps it's not necessary that it will be cold.

I hope for the best outcome -> night storms with 15-30 cm of freshies then bluebird day Smile...
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Jonpim wrote:
davidof, wonderful stuff.
(who's the bloke with the broad grin and impressive beard?)
And was that really yesterday?


Mr Yogi Tea - he's French btw; some background http://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/alpes/2014/09/08/atma-singh-l-ex-skieur-devenu-professeur-de-yoga-et-revendeur-de-yogi-tea-546386.html
has a pretty daughter who ski tours who I see around sometimes.

The other guy is Steph Mougin, who is a local (Grenoble) ski tourer.

Both do skimo competitions so I guess it is training. I assume they are on the face (east) of the Grande Motte; I'm at work so can't look again now.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Latest forecast seems to have brought the snow forward a day.

Wed in the E Alps could be snowy. Still forecasting 50cm+

Typically I'm travelling on the Thursday. Heavy snow this time of year can cause chaos with leaves still on the trees.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
My own take on it is that any snowfall of 50cm+ will be at high altitude and very localised, but it does look like fresh snowfall Wednesday Thursday to relatively low levels in the eastern Alps.
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The latest run seems to have ramped things up again.

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The 18z GFS increased snowfall for Salzburgerland, but decreased it elsewhere. 00z has pulled it back down a little, but still shows intense localised snowfall in parts of Salzburgerland. Elsewhere in Austria although there will be fresh snow it won't be as much. In practical terms that means Kaprun is likely to benefit most of the open glaciers.
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Wetter.at on the arrival of tief Christa. Announcing herself with heavy rain in Austria this morning.

http://app3.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Kaltfront-bringt-den-Schnee-zurueck/255191741
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Latest GFS output has reduced some of the rather high figures of yesterday but is still showing locally strong snowfall around in Austria over next few days, Salzburgerlsnd in particular, down to 1200m or so. Should be a good refresh for the glaciers if you can get to them.
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Thinking of doing a late February / early March 2017 trip to St Anton... The long range forecasts suggest that westerly winds and a dominant westerly storm track will once again dominate this coming winter. With a predominantly westerly influence and warmer air being pulled in from the Atlantic, how will the snowfall be influenced? Also as I understand St Anton is often influenced by prolonged periods of Foehn winds, which warm up the area significantly. Is this something to be worried about or can St Anton (the Arlberg area in general) handle this sort of weather pattern due to its altitude and unique location in the Alps?

I have done 3 ski trips to the eastern Alps (Ski-Welt / Ellmau) and on two previous occasions the snow cover was limited due to weak snow falls and prolonged warm periods. This year we had +17 in the valley in Ellmau during the last week of January.

I skied ST Anton mid January 2015 and it was brilliant, but then again the dominant storm track was from the North-West. I'm no weather expert, just going on observations from previous years.

Any advice / re-assurance would be great.

Thanks.
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Don87 wrote:
The long range forecasts suggest that westerly winds and a dominant westerly storm track will once again dominate this coming winter


Does it??

I thought recently it seemed like high pressure blocking over Scandinavia and Greenland may cause weather dominated from the east this winter. In fact Gav (GavsWeatherVids) had been suggesting a rather different winter than the last few. Obviously all subject to change and take long range forecasts with a pinch of salt. Also St Anton late feb/early march is about as snow sure as you can get....so don't sweat about it.
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@AthersT, Thanks, do you maybe have a link for me? Seems like I have been looking at all the wrong forecasts.
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@Don87, https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

He does 1 or 2 videos a day commenting from a mainly UK standpoint analysing many weather models, he has been doing a weekly "Winter" forecast for the last few weeks and posts those on Sundays. Check him out - he analyses multiple models and comes up with some interesting conclusions.
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Looks like there was some hikeable October powder above Col Agnel in the Queyras at the weekend...on the WePowder Vimeo channel...Winter's coming!! snowHead

from
https://vimeo.com/187521900
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Zermatt.



Hintertux



After a further few cools days temperatures warming up across the Alps from 24 October before dropping again in the second half of next week (around 27 October).
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
12z GFS suggesting a fairly cold end to October and start to November. By contrast ECM goes mild from 24 October and keeps it there.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Warming up on 24 October. Cooling down on 27 October. ECM now saying cooler for a few days. GFS around average before dropping. So no consistency at this stage.

Lovely grippy snow in Hintertux. Probably had 20-30cm fresh up top in last few days.
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A-Basin, in Colorado, opened today, Oct 21, 2016.

Loveland opens next week.

The North American 2016 / 2017 season is go...

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1gqxvRPXqLaxB

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More photos from Arapahoe's opening day, yesterday:

http://www.firsttracksonline.com/2016/10/21/photos-and-video-opening-day-at-a-basin/

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Happy to say queues in Hintertux today were nothing like that.

Fresh snow in the Alps looks possible as temperatures drop on 27 October, but still a fair amount of uncertaintyveyobd the warm up on Sunday/Monday.
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@nozawaonsen, same at Stubai, despite being the official opening. Really nice snow, grippy on piste and powdery moguls at the sides.
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Definitely some sleet in the rain up at Yad Moss today. snowHead
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@Peter S, yay. I've got a good feeling about winter this year for the Pennines. You can hold me to this post! 🙏🏻
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Nonglacier openings so far in the Northern Hemisphere include:

Finland (Ruka) = Oct 10, 2016;
Colorado (A-Basin) = Oct 21, 2016;
Austria (Kitzbuehel) = Oct 22, 2016.

Kitz at ~1900m this weekend...

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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Very warm today, zero iso around 3500/4000 meters with the foehn wind.
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@nozawaonsen, @clarky999, I'm coming this Saturday to a glacier in Austria for three days. I can see some very high temps and some rain at 2,500 / snow at the top in the mid-week forecast, and then sun. Do you think there's anything to choose between Sölden / Hintertux / Stubai on the basis of weather / snow, or will it all be much of a muchness? (Hintertux seems to have the most slopes open, but then again it's an extra half hour drive, nearly).
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@horizon, can't comment on Stubai as I've not been there yet this season. Hintertux should certainly still be good this weekend though.
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