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The All New 13/14 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
http://www.valthorens.com/hiver-fr/val-thorens/infos-live/livecams--webcams/livecam-station.550.html

looks good for this time of the year.

I think we've reached the stage where anything above 2600 m is likely to stick around.

Looks like it could be a good start to the season.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I agree. But with a cold snap later in the week I think it might stick above about 1800-2000m. We shall see.
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I agree. But with a cold snap later in the week I think it might stick above about 1800-2000m. We shall see.
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Another cold shot at the end of the week with the snowline dropping to around 500m on Friday (15 November). Looks like temperatures will be closer to average for a spell after that before possibly dropping again around the end of the following week.

This week in the Alps Tuesday looks good with clearer skies and lower winds, plus fresh snow. This has the added benefit of allowing time on Monday to complain at work about not feeling well before going "sick" on Tuesday...
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ECM heading into end of next week. Strong. GFS not on board yet.



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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
ECM has backed off from last night's charts. We'll see.

SLF's outlook.

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/lawinengefahr/index_EN

"On Saturday and Sunday, skies were frequently overcast and there was some snowfall. By Sunday evening the snowfall level dropped from 2200 m down to below 1000 m. On Monday skies were increasingly sunny in northeastern regions, elsewhere predominantly so.

Between Friday evening and Monday morning above approximately 2000 m, the following amounts of new fallen snow were registered:

-Northern flank of the Alps, northern Valais, Lower Valais: 30 to 50 cm, from place to place as much as 70 cm
-Southern Upper Valais and Grisons, 15 to 30 cm widespread
-On the southern flank of the Alps, less

Winds were blowing at strong to storm velocity, on Sunday from westerly, on Monday from northerly directions.

Weather forecast through Thursday, 14.11.

On Tuesday it will be mostly sunny, on Wednesday intermittently so. On Thursday in northern regions skies will turn increasingly overcast, in southern regions remain generally sunny. The zero-degree level will climb temporarily to over 3000 m again on Tuesday, then drop noticeably on Thursday afternoon. The wind will be blowing at moderate strength from the northeast to begin with, then on Thursday shift to westerly.

Outlook

On Friday, 15.11 some snowfall is expected above approximately 800 m in northern regions. On Saturday, 16.11, it will be generally cloudy, but dry. In southern regions it will be partly sunny on both days."
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GFS has a decent amount of snow heading for the Alps, with another cold spell on Friday (scotland looks like getting snow next week too, though there will be mild weather over the weekend).



ECM still pressing for colder weather again at the end of next week, GFS still has more of a spread.
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Is that cold in them there wiggles?
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Both the GFS and Snow-forecast are showing snow down to low levels across the Pyrenees over the next 3 days starting on Friday, with cooler and more seasonal weather the week after. With any luck this will set the base along with the making of artificial to let the resorts open for the Spanish holidays the first weekend in December.

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Ski Guide, Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Is there anyway of getting a wiggly graph for a decimal longitude / latitude?

For example http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png is for coordinates 7, 46. can I get a similar chart for 6.8, 45.5 (Les Arcs)?
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
That link looks pretty close to les arc ?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Something like this;


http://meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=12&lat=45.50&lon=7.5&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
18zGFS siding with ECM this evening on colder weather pushing down from the end of next week.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Snowfall tomorrow on WRF

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=45#model

Looks strong on the French Italian border and up towards Zermatt, particularly on the Italian side.

Warming up over the weekend and early next week before cooling again in the second half of the week.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
GFS has a decent amount of snow heading for the Alps, with another cold spell on Friday (scotland looks like getting snow next week too, though there will be mild weather over the weekend).



ECM still pressing for colder weather again at the end of next week, GFS still has more of a spread.


Am I reding this right, does it day "42" for Southern England?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The title at the bottom translates as: The weight of the accumulated quantities of snow since [date/day/Time - currently this is reading Thursday at 00.00 UTC] - the unit is kilograms/square metre. The map also shows the line of the 0°C temperature isotherm in mNN (not sure what that unit is)

So the 42 you are seeing for example in southern UK is most certainly NOT 42" of snow! Laughing I'm sure the Zen Master, nozawaonsen can explain EXACTLY what it all means. I like seeing the dark blue for the depths of snow so close to my home though! Toofy Grin
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The units are Snow Water Equivalent (kg/m2); that is what you get if you melted down the snow over 1m2. Since 1kg over 1m2 is 1mm, 42 kg/m2 is the same as 42mm rainfall

The depth of snow, which is what you are interested in, depends on the 'wetness' of the snow, or how much air it contains.

This can range as a rough guide from a ratio SWE:Snow of 1:1 for ice, 1:8 for wet snow and 1:14 for dry snow. The ratio 1:10 is normally taken as an average (and makes the maths easier!).

So to answer the question, 42 kg/m2 is equivalent to ~42cm of snow.. wax up your skis Bristol..
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yeah. I don't see that happening...
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Samerberg Sue, I didn't say 42" snow! Very Happy
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I'd like to believe it but.......

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442873/Coldest-winter-in-modern-times-on-way-with-snow-forecast-for-Britain-starting-next-week
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Well the countdown is truly on now with 11 weeks to go to my first ski trip so I decided to tease myself and see where we were this time last year. Seems that from end of Oct to mid Nov it was snowing with some huge foot deep dumps etc. Obviously it means nothing but it did make me feel a little bit disappointed that this year it hasn't really kicked off yet.

11 weeks is a long time Madeye-Smiley
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Quote:

I'd like to believe it but.......

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442873/Coldest-winter-in-modern-times-on-way-with-snow-forecast-for-Britain-starting-next-week



Great, so heathrow airport closed for my flight out. It feels like there has been snow here causing disruption each of the last 3-4 years....or just my memory.
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mheadbee wrote:
Well the countdown is truly on now with 11 weeks to go to my first ski trip so I decided to tease myself and see where we were this time last year. Seems that from end of Oct to mid Nov it was snowing with some huge foot deep dumps etc. Obviously it means nothing but it did make me feel a little bit disappointed that this year it hasn't really kicked off yet.

11 weeks is a long time Madeye-Smiley


This time last year the alps had a very dry lead up until the end of the first week of December. Val Thorens was skiing on the snow canons the first week of december, then it dumped a metre of snow that weekend and didn't stop snowing heavily until just before Xmas.

There is already a pretty good coating all around, certainly above 2300 metres and that isn't likely to disapear. It's snowing at the moment and forecast to next week as well.
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Snowing to 700m (at least) here atm. Will probably start sticking around now too (not this low obv though).
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I've put the winter tyres in my car ready for fitting tomorrow. The evolution of the ECM model is suggesting that driving conditions across much of Scotland could get quite interesting over the next 10 days.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111412/ECM1-96.GIF
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111412/ECM1-240.GIF
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Looking pretty cold across the Alps over the next couple of weeks....
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Bring it on!!!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:

There is already a pretty good coating all around, certainly above 2300 metres and that isn't likely to disapear. It's snowing at the moment and forecast to next week as well.


Have you seen the s3v webcams today? never mind above 2300, even down to croisette in courchevel 1850 looks smashing Happy http://www.s3v.com/en/webcams-3-vallees/
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Snowing hard here right now and the snow line is dropping down below my village as the temperature falls. Pissing down in Munich though and loads of sleep and slush as you come along the A8 to my neck of the woods. Toofy Grin snowHead snowHead Made for an interesting drive back home after rehearsals this evening. Laughing
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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SLF update for Switzerland.

"Weather forecast through Monday, 18.11.

On Thursday night snowfall is anticipated widespread. The snowfall level will be about 600 m in northern regions and 1200 m in southern regions. During the course of the day on Friday, first bright intervals will become evident in eastern regions; in western and southern regions a bit more snowfall is expected to last into Friday night. The wind will shift from northeasterly to southeasterly and be blowing at moderate strength, intermittently at strong velocity.

By Saturday morning the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are expected above approximately 2000 m:

Bernese Oberland, Valais, western Ticino: 20 to 30 cm;
in the Valais sector of Main Alpine Ridge as much as 40 cm
remaining regions: 10 to 20 cm

Between Saturday and Monday it will turn quite sunny above the high fogbanks with their uppermost borderline at about 1500 m. In southern regions there may be some precipitation on Monday. The zero-degree level is expected to climb to approximately 2800 m. The wind will slacken off significantly.

Outlook

On Tuesday, 19.11, some snowfall is anticipated in southern regions in particular. On Wednesday, 20.11, snowfall is expected widespread. It is likely that the snowfall level will drop down to below 1000 m."
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Have to say, this is looking like December is set fair for a good start to the season.
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emwmarine, agree (with great enthusiasm as I'm heading back out on 1 December). I was in Tignes last week and have never seen so much snow at that time of year. Temperatures look set to be average or lower so a good base looks like it is being established, particularly with yet further snowfall over the next few days. All looks good for pre-Christmas skiing Happy
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Some relatively warm temperatures to come in the Alps (and UK) over the next few days.



Before a return to colder than average temperatures later in the week. Pyrenees looks cool pretty much throughout the next ten days.

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Quote:



mheadbee wrote:
Well the countdown is truly on now with 11 weeks to go to my first ski trip so I decided to tease myself and see where we were this time last year. Seems that from end of Oct to mid Nov it was snowing with some huge foot deep dumps etc. Obviously it means nothing but it did make me feel a little bit disappointed that this year it hasn't really kicked off yet.

11 weeks is a long time Madeye-Smiley


This time last year the alps had a very dry lead up until the end of the first week of December. Val Thorens was skiing on the snow canons the first week of december, then it dumped a metre of snow that weekend and didn't stop snowing heavily until just before Xmas



Not so.


Look at the below link to October last year. If you go forward a few pages as well it is all about foot deep snow drifts and avalanches from End of October right through November.

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=89088&start=280
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Really you are wrong. At the moment there is around a metre of snow in the centre of Val Thorens. There is already around that down to the lowest slopes. I was in the village when the season started last november in a warm period where even the snow canons struggled to work. When VT opened it pretty much only had artificial snow on the pists and brown everywhere else.

Of course it then dumped like crazy from the end of the first week December through to xmas.

Read a bit further on that thread.

The snow we have now means that the start of the season next week in VT will have far better snow than we had at the beginning of last season.

How that then progresses into the season is anyone's guess.

So your original assertion that we haven't start so far as well as we did last year is wrong. It doesn't really matter - but the fact is compared to this time last year we are in a much better place for the start of the season.

This is the village at the moment.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152059105157764&set=a.10152059103462764.1073741836.95618862763&type=1&theater
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
06z has snow again on 20th and temperatures dropping after a few mild days between now and then.
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Hopefully we will have another season like last year!


http://youtube.com/v/Me_Tk4Y5BSA
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My first visit on this page this season... such a relief to find Noza is posting, thanks in advance for your contribution! Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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