The all new 11/12 Weather Outlook thread

A snowHead

Thanks for them radar links Noz. They certainly seem better than the Meteox one. Looks like the resort I am going to (Seefeld) has and is still missing out on the heavy snow that has fallen further west in the Arlberg and further east in the ZIllertal and ski amade regions.

Aside from that what do you think of this mornings forecast charts especially the ECMWF one? If that came off there wouldn't be any worries of warmer temperatures over the Alps for next weekend onwards!!

A snowHead

Still snowing heavily here in Radstadt. We have easily had over half a metre of new snow overnight, as I dug my car out yesterday and have had to do the same this morning. Geepee's hire car is buried up to the level of its bonnet (Audi A4 saloon) He arrived last night and parked up. He took one look this morning, got out his Pilgrims and staggered down to the ski bus. I think he may have even skied down the road to the bus stop.

The forecast is for this to continue until the early hours of Wednesday morning, then bluebird skies for the rest of the week!

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Short term.

- Still heavy snow falling in the eastern Alps, working its way further east between now and Tuesday.
- Conversely clearing in the west, tomorrow should be fantastic and later today if you can get above the cloud.
- Much of the Alps will be in sunshine from Tuesday, probably Wednesday in Austria.
- Temperatures rising during the day from midweek, especially in the west. It will be mild for the time of year. Cold overnight. Not unpleasant though.

It currently looks like temperatures will start to cool next weekend. But there is real uncertainty in the models as they struggle to decide how to handle the pattern change as the strong polar vortex we've had all through December and the early January weakens.

By next Tuesday ECM has deep cold pushing in from the east. As low pressure slides into the Mediterranean.

GFS has snow pushing in from the north west.

Not only is there a wide divergence between the main models, but also from operational run to operational run.

Still a smashing week coming up in the Alps.

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Had a text from a colleague coming home from Selva to say that Innsbruck airport's shut and they're being bussed somewhere else (Venice?).

Noza - where do the ECM and GFS maps come from? I've sussed out where to get the wiggles from, but I can't seem to find these maps.

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andy from embsay, you can get them on wetter.de or meteociel.fr amongst other places. The ones above are from meteociel.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

After all it is free

Surely flights will divert to Munich from Innsbruck

He didn't know where they were going - they said 5 hours though.

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Perfect - thanks nozawaonsen.

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andy from embsay, have known Innsbruck flights to be diverted to Verona.

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this thread is amazing btw thanks all!

Yes, amazing thread....I recently moved to Germany from the U.S., and I'm having great fun reading about the weather and conditions. Off to Lech and St. Anton in two weeks. Should be wonderful! Thanks in particular to nozawaonsen. You provide a great service to everyone!

You know it makes sense.

Couple of things from this evening's 12z GFS operational.

- Any mild spell next week looks pretty short lived in the eastern Alps. And by 15 January temperatures look like cooling across the Alps.
- Beyond that GFS ramps the snowfall up incredibly from 17 January, in the eastern Alps in particular. BUT firstly it is way out, secondly the models are having real problems getting a grip on the mid month pattern change. So I would be pretty wary of this. That said a return to snowy weather at altitude from mid month has been cropping up in a number of recent runs. So worth keeping an eye on (but until some sort of consistency starts appearing in between models and runs I wouldn't have any confidence at all beyond next weekend).

Here are some ensembles (they'll update in 15 mins).

Les Deux Alpes.

Chamonix.

The Arlberg.

Hintertux.

Sestriere.

Folgaria.

Zermatt.

Cairngorm.

Eastern Pyrenees.

Bad Gastein.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

New snow in the last three days in Switzerland.

3-day new snow total [SLF]

- 116cm in the far east at Samnaun at the border with Austria.

SLF's update for tomorrow.

Considerable avalanche danger

- "On Sunday night, the snowfall will gradually slacken off. During the day on Monday in western and southern regions, it will be predominantly sunny. In eastern regions it will remain generally overcast."
- 10-20cms snow in the central and eastern part of the Alps by Monday evening.
- "The northerly wind will be blowing at moderate strength in western regions, at strong velocity in eastern regions."
- "On Tuesday, the precipitation will come to an end, including in eastern regions. In western and southern regions it will be sunny. The northerly wind will remain strong."

A snowHead

And in terms of showing that all options remains on the table... this evening's 12z ECM produces a fairly cool, but not very snowy FI.

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Just on the way back from Davos where it has been dumping down since Thursday. The forecasted winds came this afternoon with all the mountains being shut about 1 15. Boot deep powder on piste and knee deep down the sides. Will be unbelievable when its sunny this week! 6 inches fell overnight last night and probably bit more than that during the day.

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The wigglies are just to die for, for those of us going out this week [/smug-git] Toofy Grin

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18z GFS operational is interesting in that it produces a run from 17 January to the end, of cool temperatures and snow across the Alps. In a sense it reloads a variant of the pattern we've just had. That's fine. But it's nothing like the ECM run. So beyond mid month remains a mystery... Maybe there'll be some agreement by tomorrow evening.

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And the 00z runs do indeed suggest some consistency this morning...

ECM 00z

GFS 00z

This would bring some light snow over the Eastern Alps on Friday and cold across the Alps (more so in the ECM run which keeps it cold to the end of it's run - 19 January).

Further out into FI GFS continues to suggest a relatively snow run from 19 January.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

Well, what a turnaround!

Just looked back a month in this thread when there was a little snow, some hope in the wigglies and a lot of bickering.

What a difference a month (and about 200cm) makes! snowHead

After all it is free

just returned from long weekend in austria. we had so much snow started raining when we arrieved wed night cooled to snow overnight and never stopped. still dumping now but theu are having trouble with avalanches apparentlt, back out in 7 weeks if its half as good will be amazing

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Noza

Thanks for all of the updates.

So post this Saturday things will be getting much colder. Are we talking -30 degrees c @ 2,000m cold, or just simply that it'll be colder than the warm midweek weather we are due?

Also, I have been nosing at the ensembles for lat 46 long 7 (Chatel/Morzine area, if I'm correct?) and they seem to be forecasting precipitation to increase from 15 January, in conjunction with colder temperatures. Does this mean we will get snow next week, in all likelihood?

(In exchange for all this info, I will of course be posting updates from Chatel next week snowHead

)

Thanks in anticipation.

James.

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The latest 6z GFS looks like cold and snow from 15th / 16th onwards to me, it's just about coming into High def now, but NOZA is the expert and i leave it to him to confirm Puzzled

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mr_merc, I'm in Chamonix for a week from Sunday onwards so am wondering the same.

To my very amateur eye the 06Z GFS seems to be suggesting snow for the start of next week but this is way off for any forecasting accuracy. Awaiting the midday wigglies with interest.

edit: duplicate post with Arteta10 great minds

Sounds like it confirms what my (rather amateur) eyes are telling me Smile

Thank you both.

Might work out nicely - a week of sunshine to compact the snow pack and then a few days of light snow to top the pack off Smile

You know it makes sense.

Hmm, the 06Z seems to be an odd one. Just checked for lat 46, long 7 and seems that it gets warm around 19 January, just as precipitation increases. This could mean rain Puzzled

Will see later if the 12Z confirms the 06Z, but to my naked eye the 06Z doesn't seem to accord with previous runs.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

mr_merc, don't fall into the trap of micro-analysing each individual run Smile

A snowHead

red 27, mr_merc, especially 10 days away!!

A snowHead

12z GFS operational shows just how fickle the models are being at present. Plunging Europe into the freezer after mid month.

The main point to underline at this stage is the continuing lack of consistency.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

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just looked at that temp map . worked out i will be right under the righthand -16 next week . brrrr . time for a bit more packing i think.

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tim000, hold your horses! My point was that the models are flinging up all sorts of options! Some cold. Some mild.

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And to underline the point ECM produces mild temperatures for the middle of next week. Until some sort of consistency starts taking hold it's hard to see beyond this weekend.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

Oh how exciting, which way is this one going to go, all options are in available and it's all to play for, ding! ding! seconds out! Very Happy

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My cash is on the cold to win with a low heading up from the med with Sauze d'Oulz getting puked on.......... Laughing

just being prepared Very Happy

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Extreme snowfall in western Austria. [ZAMG]

- It's been decades since this much snow in western Austria.
- 30 years since this much snow in January, 60 years in some places.
- Total snow in last four days in St Anton (1285m) is 104cm. Since 1895 it's only reached this amount 14 times. 147cm in 1988.
- Galtür (1648m) current snow depth is 190cm, the record January snow depth is 195cm in 1951.

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The all new 11/12 Weather Outlook thread

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