 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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There is more chance of me dropping my wife off for a party at Silvio Berlusconi's villa than there is of snow in France this week.
Enjoy the sunshine and spring conditions.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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mmm.. could be cold and snowy leading up to half term, dieu merci 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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nozawaonsen, Mm. Well worth flagging up. Will be hard for people to resist the temptation, but......
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Yes, been telling people the same thing myself (i do occasional avalanche awareness classes here). We have a crusty surface layer which new snow is not going to bond to. Below that, there's masses of sugary depth hoar. It's going to be really sketchy!
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Mon 7-02-11 10:58; edited 1 time in total
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18z GFS interesting in that it shows what happens if the high pressure over Scandinavia can't hold back the Atlantic meaning colder temperatures don't really establish themselves.
If 18z operational was right it would still be snowy next week (ie from about Valentine's day or rather night), indeed probably quite heavy, but the start of the week would bring rain to lower level resorts, before it gets colder later on with a second band of snow arriving around 17 February (possibly very heavy, but again the snow level would be a concern in lower resorts) .
[before that it is worth adding that there could be some light snow in Austria this Friday through Sunday, possibly more widespread on Saturday]
To be honest it would not be too surprising too see the dominance of the east and the west swing back and forth a bit in the coming days.
For the Alps it would be ideal to get some cold in ahead of the Atlantic, but it will still be the Atlantic which provides the snow (if the east won out and introduced really cold temperatures it would probably be drier too). Actually in far FI 18z also introduces a system from the Mediterranean into colder air which would be rather good, but too far off to take seriously.
So although it could still all change... it is continuing to look less dry from next week...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Not sure how reliable snow-forcast.com is but they are saying snow in the Pyrenees on Saturday morning. The day I fly!
(managing a very quiet and optimistic 'whoop!')
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mrgallacher, snow-forecast takes it's data from the operational GFS run I believe? (as do a number of other forecasts). So it will be as reliable as that is!
This morning's 00z GFS operational contrives to be neither one thing nor the other for the Alps (neither really taking the cold from the east, nor opening the gates to the Atlantic). There are many more appealing individual ensembles including the control. ECM looks better for my money.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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do the wiggles indicate a move away from the blocking high
where in this request am i being rude,, anyway i appreciate answer
Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Mon 7-02-11 11:56; edited 1 time in total
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Which blocking high?
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this one
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You know it makes sense.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Which blocking high? |
rhymes with bob then add head,and i dont mean snow 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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That is hideous. I've not been following the pressure charts this year, and that reminds me why.
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Poster: A snowHead
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phillip33, I find your rudeness quite astonishing. I have ignored it repeatedly, but it does grow tiresome.
There is obviously currently high pressure over Europe at present. But there is also the strong potential (which has been mentioned several times over the last week) of a high pressure system setting up over Scandinavia providing a northern block and allowing cold air to flow across Europe from the east. It is not clear whether we are moving closer to of further away from the scenario of the northern block.
Hence my perfectly genuine question as to which "blocking high" you were referring to.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| phillip33 wrote: |
do the wiggles indicate a move away from the blocking high
where in this request am i being rude,, anyway i appreciate answer |
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| phillip33 wrote: |
do the wiggles indicate a move away from the blocking high
where in this request am i being rude,, anyway i appreciate answer |
sorry thats better getting used to the system, please see above !
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| phillip33 wrote: |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Which blocking high? |
rhymes with bob then add head,and i dont mean snow |
that's pretty rude
nozawaonsen contributes a hell of a lot of knowledge (as do others) on this thread and the last thing we need is comments like that putting a dampner on things - the weather is capable of doing that itself!
....
moving on - how are people able to predict the weather so far in advance with the long term forecasts. I remember reading back in October about it being a barren snow year for the alps (albeit with a sting in the tail) and that's been pretty close to the mark. Is it down to world weather patterns, or some other techno stuff?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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shoogly, guesswork and luck! If enough folk forecast long term (as they do) a few are bound to be right 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| shoogly wrote: |
| phillip33 wrote: |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Which blocking high? |
rhymes with bob then add head,and i dont mean snow |
that's pretty rude
nozawaonsen contributes a hell of a lot of knowledge (as do others) on this thread and the last thing we need is comments like that putting a dampner on things - the weather is capable of doing that itself!
....
moving on - how are people able to predict the weather so far in advance with the long term forecasts. I remember reading back in October about it being a barren snow year for the alps (albeit with a sting in the tail) and that's been pretty close to the mark. Is it down to world weather patterns, or some other techno stuff? |
Luck. However, there are some long term forecast tools that are usable ( and in general, forecasting continental weather is a touch easier than forecasting UK weather.)
Most of the general "the alps will be cold but dry" forecasts have drawn on the fact that we are currently experiencing a strong La Nina. This "often" results in a cold early winter, mid latitude high pressure in the middle and further cold towards the end of winter.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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calm down lads, i,ve been playing,he,s a bit sensitive, didn,t appreciate his tone on one of his replies, anyway i,m really sorry if that helps,re roga mtfu how origional take you long to come up with that??!! joking before it kicks off again
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Jeez, Meteo France really do talk some p*sh sometimes on the temperatures in their forecasts. They're giving +8C and raining in Sainte Foy on the same day as -1C and snowing in Val (just a couple of miles away). That's an impressive lapse rate of 3C per 100m!  (for non weather-gurus, 0.5C per 100m would be "normal" in wet conditions).
They don't even seem to be consistent within their own forecasts sometimes - e.g. they'll give a high of, say 5C for the day, then if you look at their morning/afternoon/evening breakdown they don't show anything higher than a high of 1C. Very weird.
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You know it makes sense.
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I cant for the life of me understand where phillip33, was coming from on that one
Surely he has read enough of this thread to recognise that nozawaonsen, knows what he is talking about.
Maybe a misjudged joke and I think most would give the benefit of the doubt but i am at a loss to understand its contextphillip33, ?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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phillip33, and just to add my pennysworth, if you make an effort to understand and follow all this, instead of just demanding (not too strong a word) some kind of crystal ball gazing to suit your own purposes, you will find it more rewarding - and you will understand the reason for the uncertainties and the reason why it doesn't do to rely on any detailed "forecast" 6 - 9 days ahead. especially any which put a figure on precipitation.
The best place for snow chains is the Roof Box Company - and they will give you excellent advice if you telephone them.
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Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, I really appreciate the time you take to do these weather reports and how you politely answer people's specific queries. I look at this thread first thing when I turn the computer on in the morning and hope you will continue to post so helpfully.
phillip33, you are my teenage son and I claim my £5.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Back on topic.
I am lucky enough to be going to Puy St Vincent in the Southern French alps on Sunday.
It still seems that from the 14th the FL is still marginal and the potential Niederschlag seems to be fluctuating greatly with every run still.
At least we have some hope of a breakdown of the aforementioned HIGH but i pray we dont get rain at resort level  I hate skiing in the RAIN.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Well, I have been patiently watching this thread for about 7 weeks now hoping and praying for good news. My time is now up and I fly out to chatel tonight for 5 days of boarding. I have run out of time in my hope for snow so there is nothing left to pray for, I will just accept my fate and do whatever is out there.
Looks like nice weather, reasonable pistes, and at -4 to -9 at night hopefully plenty of snowmaking so will just make the best of what they have.
I am saying goodbye to this thread now, this is my only trip this year so when I get back I will be checking the weather forecast for Florida in March and hope that the info I saw earlier today suggesting I am travelling during the USA schools spring break is in fact a bad dream and not a bad miscalculation.
So, until next October good bye one and all, many thanks for the excellent updates on here and I hope the next big dump reaches all your prospective resorts in good time 
Good skiing.....................
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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mheadbee, I think you'll be OK on piste - and I'd rather be there than here. Have a great time
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Newbie here enjoying the chat, conjecture, sarcasm and occasional trawling.
My wife thinks i'm really sad constantly watching the forecast for the last 6 weeks, but i find all this interesting.
From what I can gather this has been the worst french Alps snowfall since 2006. How often does a resort go over 1 month without any ppt?
we go to LDA on saturday. Anyone there presently? The Easiski blog is still quite upbeat about piste conditions especially up high
My main question is about the freeze/thaw over the last few days, will that have damaged the pistes considerably?
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noz
Any analysis do 06z? Please?
Is the cold losing the battle? 
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| risb98 wrote: |
Newbie here enjoying the chat, conjecture, sarcasm and occasional trawling.
My wife thinks i'm really sad constantly watching the forecast for the last 6 weeks |
When choosing a jacket for no. 1 son on Saturday, he chose one I thought was too thin. "How cold is it going to be?" he asked....."I don't know" I replied. "How can that be?" he said "you're OCD about the weather"......... Sadly he's right but I love it! Thanks as always to all those who contribute.
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[quote="risb98"]
From what I can gather this has been the worst french Alps snowfall since 2006[./quote]
2007 I think you mean. No it will almost certainly be worse than that. In 2006/7 it snowed at the start of the season but we didn't have the high altitude rain that washed everything away. This will probably be the worst winter in the Northern Alps... for (dare I say it) a generation although things are uncannily similar to 2007 in a lot of respects. Excepting early December we didn't get significant snow that year until early March with a rapid end to the season due to lack of snow depth.
Still if you've watched my two recent snow reports on the Small French Resorts thread you'll see that on piste conditions are holding up very well. As someone said on SkiPass yesterday "praise the lord for snow canons, 20 years ago I would have been blowing my skis on rocks at the bottom of the pistes".
Think of ski businesses though, expect a few bankruptcies. The Swiss say lift pass sales are running at 60-70% of normal in resorts that are fully open (it may not end up so bad as the half term reservations were made in advance and there probably won't be too many cancellations and some of the loss in trade is due to the strong franc).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| davidof wrote: |
| ...... As someone said on SkiPass yesterday "praise the lord for snow canons, 20 years ago I would have been blowing my skis on rocks at the bottom of the pistes"...... |
Yes, IIRC '86 was pretty dire - I remember a lot of bare patches and rocks at Val Claret. Snow cannons have improved things dramtically
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| RetroBod wrote: |
noz
Any analysis do 06z? Please?
Is the cold losing the battle? |
Yes. For the western Alps at least, the cold has lost the battle. The operational and most of the ensembles show daytime freezing level fluctuates from around 1500m to 1900m for the next two weeks. It gets colder the further east you go, with 850hpa temperatures hitting seasonal average for Austria.
Precipitation is one of the hardest things to predict. If you follow the 06z GFS run In France, the operational shows precipitation on the 13th, though I expect this to actually not happen. There is a further large predicted to fall between the 17th and 19th, though this would fall as rain below about 1700m or so.
The important thing is the trend. On the positive side, the ensembles and operational seem to agree that next week will be wetter. They also agree that things won't be as cold in the west as we would like.
If I were forced to make a prediction, it would be that: in the western Alps there will be falls totalling 30cm in the two weeks following this one. This will fall as rain, sometimes heavy, below 1500m and as snow above 1800m.
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FAQ
