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The all new 23/24 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Sorry, I will post there. I took the view it was kind of weather related as I am concerned about the lack of snow in Morzine! Apologies and thanks all. I will keep watching here for weather though!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
aidanjc01 wrote:
Sorry, I will post there. I took the view it was kind of weather related as I am concerned about the lack of snow in Morzine! Apologies and thanks all. I will keep watching here for weather though!


There's a specific forecast / weather page for PDS (which includes lots of general PDS-related questions and chat): https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=165526
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Thank you!
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@aidanjc01,
I’ll keep it brief. There is not enough local skiing open in Les Gets and Morzine to occupy anyone for a week except a total beginner. With another biblical rain event about to happen it will be further reduced by this weekend. You’ll need at least an Avoriaz pass.

HTH
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@aidanjc01, They only sell 2 day or less Avoriaz only passes - but once you have the card you can update online at any time, so you could decide daily where to go.
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@zzz, misery makes great company they say, although I have no time for it personally... but Rob and Dashed politely directed that conversation to the correct thread.
Weather wise, if you want to make a friendly wager on specific outcomes (will it be better or worse by tues)....am open to offers Smile

12z rolling out now....ICON and GFS both show deeper troughing and the shortwave sliding east over the weekend.....much smaller warm sector to mix in, could be some surprises, doesn't look great for mountain biking.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Cmon
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
polo wrote:
@zzz, misery makes great company they say, although I have no time for it personally... but Rob and Dashed politely directed that conversation to the correct thread.
Weather wise, if you want to make a friendly wager on specific outcomes (will it be better or worse by tues)....am open to offers Smile

12z rolling out now....ICON and GFS both show deeper troughing and the shortwave sliding east over the weekend.....much smaller warm sector to mix in, could be some surprises, doesn't look great for mountain biking.


Oooh! Team Polo here!!
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To highlight the run to run shortwave chaos for monday, ICON goes from +4 to +8c along northern ridge (06z), to a widespread -4 on the 12z. With the western alps and southern alps back on track for heavy ppn.



Remember that northerly flow on ECM a few days back for Monday......ICON pretty close to it now. Other models not quite as good.....but GFS has the dartboard low now 400km east again, not far from Paris once more, while UKMO and GEM are more positively tilted NE-SW (milder for alps), while JMA is still heading for Lisbon. It's a step in the right direction overall so far.

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@polo, I’m not a betting man (I always lose wink )but whilst it might look white for a short time this week and on piste conditions might briefly improve I think conditions overall will worsen.

I really would like to be wrong.

Edited to add that even team Polo are, on the other thread, recommending an Avoriaz or PDS pass….
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http://youtube.com/v/BD4d-2b0uFE?si=xfKgyy9NsjaLZpH-

It looks like Morzine.

Probably the wrong thread but hey ho…….
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@zzz, hedging my bets! Eh oh!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@polo, struggling a bit to keep up with all the flip flopping and too far west and now moving east! Are we still likely to see some uncertainty next week or are we nailed on warm- isher and lower ppn? Headed for Wagrain obs easterer than you so wondered if we are beyond hope for coolerer temps (after Fridays event)?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
zzz wrote:
@polo, I’m not a betting man (I always lose wink )but whilst it might look white for a short time this week and on piste conditions might briefly improve I think conditions overall will worsen.

I really would like to be wrong.

Edited to add that even team Polo are, on the other thread, recommending an Avoriaz or PDS pass….


How so? A lot more snow high up, a bit more snow after rain low down. I missed the change in emphasis in recent forecasts, are we worried about temps next week or the effect of the rain on the snow low down?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@polo many thanks for your post at 9:24 this morning. Your informed general comments on the merits or otherwise of GFS are helpful.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Chamonix météo calling 50cm on Thursday at 2200m and then sunny Friday snowHead snowHead snowHead
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@RetroBod, it’s difficult to say, I think eastern end will do well initially, but the Monday uncertainty is still there. At the moment it’s very marginal even for the western end, whether we’ll be on the cold or mild side, but northern and eastern end is more likely to be milder and dry.

I really don’t know, but that’s my best guess. Having said, some of the current modeling for 1st/2nd Mar on favors Austria. I’ll keep throwing up the charts either way til the bitter end snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
polo wrote:
@RetroBod, it’s difficult to say, I think eastern end will do well initially, but the Monday uncertainty is still there. snowHead


Thanks @polo really great insights all round. Fascinating how things change even at such short range.....
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Tomorrow is looking like more high altitude rain misery - 2400 meters in the mountains around Grenoble but with the snowline dropping to 1600 meters on the tail of the storm. You can reduce those altitudes by 200 meters in the Savoie.

If you are skiing in the French Alps on Thursday, take a So'wester.

About 10 to 20cm of fresh snow at altitude.
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Using ECMWF and Chamonix as a sample, this coming Monday is the day with the main precipitation. Temperatures not bad even at 1,000m, minimum -2c and maximum +4c.

But we know the forecasts just now vary within hours.
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00z are coming together now for sun-tues, good cross model consensus finally, tight ensembles. Disaster avoided.
Some areas are going to be snow bombed.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:

00z are coming together now for sun-tues, good cross model consensus finally, tight ensembles. Disaster avoided.
Some areas are going to be snow bombed.


DROP POWDER NOT BOMBS
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@coldrainsnow, lol, print the t-shirts please!
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@davidof, snow/rain limit reported as just above la tania this morning
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6 models here showing the near consensus for 1am Monday (entropy zone)....deeper low now visible between Bordeaux and Paris. But half are still a little too far SW for my liking.



Can see the range of temps at 1500m here for each model.....southern alps on the cold side, north is milder, west is mixed. These charts aren't very precise though, as cold air can be hard to shift from inner valleys, and the scale is very broad....0 or +4 etc



So need to look closer at ensembles....NW alps, ECM starts mild Sun night but does get below zero (mean) during monday. GFS colder, staying below zero.



And for a change, some Salzburg charts....similar temps, maybe 1-2 degrees milder 25-26th on ECM but not so on GFS, and overall a bit drier


Wepowder snow chart looking lively
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Sainte Foy , Haute Tarentaise
poo-poo level 1500m ,
wet snow 1700m but Humid all the way to 2400m
Lull in place at the mo
Three runs and a coffee . As said looking great for the weekend once the cold takes the humidity out the snow .
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Chamonix Meteo calling for 60-80cm over next 24 hours at 1500m. It's certainly raining enough right now, but will it get cold enough?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Lull did I say lull , oops didn’t last long .

@hold_my_biere, I’d say the level is a bit optimistic there might be the right call at 1800/1900m however
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Steady precipitation in the 3Vs since dawn … FL at circa 2,000 metres. Val Thorens getting properly puked. Temps and FL forecast to drop by 11ish tonight. Should be good tomorrow.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Still sunny in Innsbruck at the moment, but the wind has picked up since this morning and the local press has a weather warning for tomorrow with 15-30cm of snow in the valley (down to about 800m, valley bottom is about 550-600m) and up to 50cm in some areas. If you are travelling here tomorrow or Saturday, it could be a bit mental.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Scarlet wrote:
Still sunny in Innsbruck at the moment, but the wind has picked up since this morning and the local press has a weather warning for tomorrow with 15-30cm of snow in the valley (down to about 800m, valley bottom is about 550-600m) and up to 50cm in some areas. If you are travelling here tomorrow or Saturday, it could be a bit mental.


What are they saying for Salzburgerland?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@3offthetee, Here is the link with the map on: https://tirol.orf.at/stories/3245817/
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Bergfex is saying 57cm for Mayrhofen tomorrow. There will not be 57cm of snow in Mayrhofen tomorrow.
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Great live updates folks, keep em coming.

We powder has four different countries in its top 10, so subject to freezing level should be good for a lot of different areas.
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Still pissing it down in Sainte Foy , reckon rain / snow level now up to 1800/1900m highest today should start to fall towards dusk with a massive drop towards midnight .
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Raining in Wengen, and windy up top. Temp in the village currently +6C.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Once again to add much lower PN level a few kms away over the border in Italy , very white and snowy in La Thuile at 1450m .
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Sat morning....lac level (400m NW) snow possible, sea level in swiss

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@Rob Mackley, what does PN stand for?
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Pluie/neige - rain/snow
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