 Poster: A snowHead
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GFS 06 is a return to overall January conditions. Unfortunately looking like the most likely development. I am going 10 days in the Dolomites in the end of February and hoping there is enough snow in the couloirs  Good spring skiing can be awesome too. More concerned about my road trip in March..
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Thu 30-01-20 12:02; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@altaski8, sshhh not allowed to say things like that  To be fair the temperatures on the current outlooks dont look as if they will be that much higher than average but yes milder than average and fairly dry looks to be on the horizon.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| altaski8 wrote: |
| Augsburg, Munich, Rosenheim, and Salzberg webcams all showing wet and green. Very unwintry winter so far. Can't even buy a good snowsquall. A light coating at 600m has mostly melted but snow is on the ground above about 700m. Several cms above 1000m and a significant snowfall in the usual favored areas. But it looks like most of Austria and Germany were spared the big totals, outside of the Vorarlberg. |
10cm on the ground in Landeck yesterday morning when we pulled over to decide where to ski. Ended up in Ischgl, snowed hard all day to the valley. 20-40cm on the mountain depending on wind (and shelter from it). Guess Arlberg got a bit more. Around Innsbruck less, other than Nordkette which also looked pretty deep.
Much warmer today though obv.
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Just to cheer everyone up here is a predicted snow map for Thursday next week
Depending on exactly how things pan out there could be pretty substantial snowfall in some places. Certainly things look positive for UK half term folk.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@munich_irish, that is snow depth not forecasted snow accumulations just to be clear. The GFS/ECM favor the northern Alps... something like 20 - 80cm depending on location. The southern Alps, much less.
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@altaski8, Indeed, but it does show the general pattern of where there is likely to be lying snow.
A closer view of the alps with numbers. No idea how they calculate the "depths" and at what altitude (presumably based on a network of weather stations), but it does make sense a few cms in the Munich area and lots in the mountains. The Arlberg going from 391cm currently to 502cm in a weeks time which implies around 1m of snowfall in that time, pretty much in line with the various forecasts. The numbers for the Dolomites hardly change so very much focused on the usual northern snowy spots.
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Sunday through to Wednesday doesn't look great. Strong wind, rain and then a feeze up may mean closed lifts, saturated pistes and then hard packed surfaces. Hoping not 
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As a point of comparison to chart above this is the current snow depths at 2000m in CH
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@BobinCH, Almost 2 meter of snow in Sion looks a little bit exaggerated
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Does anyone know where the SCGB snow forecasting comes from? I'm pretty sure it used to be snow-forecast.com, but to my surprise I find that the SCGB and snow-forecast predictions for the next week or so are very different, so I'm assuming it's changed to another provider.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@munich_irish, that's a bit odd, as their forecasts are often quite different from Bergfex. I can see Bergfex and wePowder being in alignment, though.
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You know it makes sense.
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Looking back there's been a few comments that Snowforecast uses GFS, and Bergfex uses ZAMG/ECM (amongst other things no doubt).
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Sure, but the Ski Club of Great Britain seem to use something else again.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@J2R, I didn't write that comment very well, I meant to say look at Bergfex / wePowder for other forecasts, no idea which model they use as a basis for their algorithms
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@munich_irish, thanks. I actually do look at these on a regular basis, as well as the SCGB one. Like, I suspect, many people on here, I reckon if I look at enough sites frequently enough throughout the day in the weeks before my holiday, I'll get the snow I want.
@f948lan, I'd appreciate the updates. Hope you have a good time there.
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@J2R, it’s almost certainly GFS for the simple reason that it’s free. That said they may be updating at a different rate to other GFS based forecasts which would explain (especially if you are looking beyond 5 days) why there are discrepancies. GFS comes out four times a day so if one weather website using it updates before another then the output will look very different as the op run is generally (though not always obviously) quite different from run to run in FI.
As an aside Bergfex uses ZAMG (the Austrian meteorological agency) which uses ECMWF for 3 days plus.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Just on wepowder - while the numbers are interesting you really just have to follow the narrative. The numbers are done by computer but narrative will frequently say I don't think as much as our model is predicting will fall, and more important is the recommendations for which specific areas will have best conditions for actual skiing, as opposed to just snowfall. He's factoring in temperature, base, visibility, wind, trees, peculiar effects of fronts in particular valleys, and also lift queues / competition from other skiers.
I've followed the numbers before, ie just looked at a website, seem snow predicted and then been let down by snow quality, I've never been let down by morris' suggestions in fairness, on probably half a dozen jaunts.
Don't know if anyone bought the book but one of the points made is how particular resorts, because of their orientation benefit more from fronts coming in from a given direction, sometimes a lot more than other resorts close by. That kind of info is worth it's weight in gold and isn't something I've really seem elsewhere (I think it was luigi who commented on it for the monte rosa resorts a few pages up).
Anyway, I've a day off work next friday so am watching next week with some interest!
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@8611, be helpful if he were to say which model he uses. Along time ago before he became more commercialised it was much more visible.
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Yes, the frequency of update thing might be the key. It's odd because it used to be exactly the same as snow-forecast.com (also GFS, I believe) and now it's not, at all. For example, the SCGB site is talking about 25cm snow for Sunday, and snow-forecast.com is saying just 3cm. Big difference.
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| J2R wrote: |
| Yes, the frequency of update thing might be the key. It's odd because it used to be exactly the same as snow-forecast.com (also GFS, I believe) and now it's not, at all. For example, the SCGB site is talking about 25cm snow for Sunday, and snow-forecast.com is saying just 3cm. Big difference. |
Maybe that's 3cm of rain
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Setting up for a snowy Tuesday and Wednesday next week if the 5-day charts hold. As of now it looks like the initial frontal passage would again favor NW areas with a follow up nordstau favoring central and eastern areas of the northern Alps. Looks like a significant but not quite major event right now. The usual caveats apply out in that time range.
After that quick moving trough swings through it looks like screaming westerlies set up again. 200+ knot jetstream winds are showing up over the Atlantic pointing due east. Total buzzkill unless you are flying NY to London.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| J2R wrote: |
| Does anyone know where the SCGB snow forecasting comes from? I'm pretty sure it used to be snow-forecast.com, but to my surprise I find that the SCGB and snow-forecast predictions for the next week or so are very different, so I'm assuming it's changed to another provider. |
According to the bottom of the page I linked below , they are now using meteogroup (whoever they are)
https://www.skiclub.co.uk/snow-and-weather/weather-forecasts
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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14c in Geneva on Monday
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@sheffskibod, yes, I suppose I could have looked up the information on the SCGB site! Never heard of meteogroup. Anyone? [LATER: I recalled I had actually heard of them. They now provide the forecasting for the BBC Weather, instead of the Met Office. I have to say that since the switch away from the Met Office, the reliability hasn't been anything like as good, and I now use the Met Office site in preference].
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much  on Thu 30-01-20 22:28; edited 1 time in total
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You know it makes sense.
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@Peter S, why do you use the surprised emoji? People have been flagging up this warm spell for some time now and there are plenty of charts showing it in the preceding pages? Shouldn’t really come as a surprise at this stage if you’ve been paying attention.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@J2R, they produce the WeatherPro app which claims to use a magic mix of all major models (ECM, GFS, UKMO). What service they provide to SCGB only they will know. More importantly are you looking at icon based (sun, rain, snow, cloud icons) weather charts going out more than five days?
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Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@J2R, they produce the WeatherPro app which claims to use a magic mix of all major models (ECM, GFS, UKMO). What service they provide to SCGB only they will know. More importantly are you looking at icon based (sun, rain, snow, cloud icons) weather charts going out more than five days?
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I thought for a moment you were referring to the German ICON model 
I couldn't agree more.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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14C is 57 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s a lot by English standards. For Switzerland in early February I would have thought it’s quite notable
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Peter S wrote: |
| 14C is 57 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s a lot by English standards. For Switzerland in early February I would have thought it’s quite notable |
What's notable to me is that a lot of places in France, Switzerland, Germany, and even Austria could hit double digits Celcius for 4 or 5 straight days in the heart of winter! And the warmer places could crack 60F at some point. Yes it was well advertised, but it's still impressive warmth.
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Right some wet and stormy weather is on the way. Has been for a while. But it’s not too late to consider your options.
A. Strut around the bar in the base resort with your ABS on. Look meaningfully up the mountain. Look back at the bar. Down that shot glass. Curse the weather loudly and mutter that that north face could no should have been yours today. Remember to wear shades. Even if it’s chucking it down. This will allow you to check whether anyone has noticed you without being seen (practice this in the mirror at home, sharpen it up and add a twist with a few power poses). Do not pull your ABS in the bar.
Or
B. Hit the spa (definitely not Spar). Do a bit of phys before hand to ensure definition. From the sauna look up through the mist and rain and mutter that that north face could no should have been yours today. Raise an eyebrow archly. Look very carefully to check the others have noticed you, but not so it looks like you are checking them out (check them out obviously). Don’t wear shades, definitely no ABS and absolutely no power posing as that would be way OTT.
Good news is it’s going to get cold a day or two later, then snow and then the sun will come out.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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And some cheeky FI fun as well (note FI).
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What does FI mean?
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Fantasy Island
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What or where is fantasy island?
I googled it and found nothing. Searching this forum I gather it refers to the extended range of model output, which might as well be "fantasy." 
Is this a British or forum-specific term?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@altaski8 its just a figure of speech to describe the very long range forecasts that are so far out you can't take them seriously.
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@altaski8, It is simply a slang expression that means the weather forecast is so far in the future it is very uncertain. It really is only applicable if a large amount of snow is forecast as folk get their hopes up only for the snow flakes to fade away in the spring sunshine. I doubt you will find anything on Google it is rather a Snowheads specific term.
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FAQ
