 Poster: A snowHead
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@Jellybeans1000, can you give a brief explanation of why you think the fronts will fail?
It's very frosty on the ground here this morning. Models look good, but I would be wary of snowfall totals appearing on various sites for the 2/3rd. It's a very thin band of ppn, and for the French alps the latest run even includes moisture from the med (as well as NW). Seems unlikely to be as good as current GFS op run suggesting, but we should get something.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Everyone I have spoken to in Alpe d'Huez have had a good time. They realise conditions are not great but have made the most of it. The snow above mid station has been fine.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
| Whitegold wrote: |
| Snow is coming to the Alps in the second week of January. |
That's a guess, no accuracy at all, any truth in this is a coincedence |
Hook, line, sinker? 
03.01.2017 looks like a little dusting for Sauze/Sestriere is on the cards. A period of potential snowfall to follow?
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My friends are in Courchevel 1650 and skiing at 1850 - having a fine time, with enough for a good few hours each day so far (arrived Tuesday) but zero snow in the area around their chalet. It happens that suits them though, as they have two non-skiers, so they're walking on non-slippy surfaces (one has mobility issues so every cloud....)
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Wife and I only skied for the first time in Meribel, January 15. The conditions were poor according to our instructor, but we had no reference point so had a great time and were hooked. We're there again Monday. Now we do know enough to see it's poor, but we plan to get our skis on and ski every day. We do this first week thing because of our kids' needs. Mmm, maybe not any more. In March, we're off to the Dolomites- bound to be snow there by then. Right...? 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Whilst it's frustrating to not have much to ski on at this time of year, it's been absolutely brilliant for hiking. Had some wonderful walks over Xmas in the Chatel/Morgins area. Looking forward to a couple more extensive hikes over the long weekend - assuming my flight to GVA isn't cancelled tonight!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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8-10 day pressure anomaly trend continues to edge NW towards Iceland / Greenland, with good agreement across ECM (left) and GFS (right).
If correct, would suggest continued cold air hitting alps 7-9 Jan.
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| langball wrote: |
...
If correct, would suggest continued cold air hitting alps 7-9 Jan.
.... |
Arrive 7th so will take that thanks. 
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You know it makes sense.
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any chance of snow in the south east coast of the UK from the 7th
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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06Z GFS pushed it back a few hours but now going for a very cold FI.
Any snow forecast in FI seems to disappear as soon as it hits the more reliable 7 day window. Hope it doesn't happen to the stuff on the 7-8th.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Météo France keep on pushing the snow back. Was the 5th and 6th of Jan now the 7th and 8th!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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They are watching this thread and teasing you!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| langball wrote: |
@Jellybeans1000, can you give a brief explanation of why you think the fronts will fail?
It's very frosty on the ground here this morning. Models look good, but I would be wary of snowfall totals appearing on various sites for the 2/3rd. It's a very thin band of ppn, and for the French alps the latest run even includes moisture from the med (as well as NW). Seems unlikely to be as good as current GFS op run suggesting, but we should get something. |
One reason against new snow is poor track record this season
Another is Polar Heatwave.
A reason for new snow is good charts
Another is likely blocking in Atlantic
You just need to weigh up the options...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Hey @nozawaonsen, are you on any weather forums?
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Nope.
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meteofrance is forecasting hardly any snow, snowforecast. com "heavy snow". Is the latter site funded by the ski resorts?
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I'm liking the UK Met Office 30 day thoughts. Good for proper winter in the UK, and good for the Alps too, Once we've got a firm block around somewhere, so long as it's not situated bang over, or just east of the UK te whole time, there's room for some pleasant surprises ...
| Quote: |
Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Wednesday 4 Jan 2017 to Friday 13 Jan 2017:
Wednesday will be mostly cloudy across the UK, with patchy light rain and drizzle at times, mainly over hills and coasts in the north and west, whilst mostly dry elsewhere. Rain will be moving south-eastwards on Thursday, introducing brighter and colder conditions, with some wintry showers across the far north, these extending southwards. A colder north to north-easterly is likely to become established from Friday onwards, with frequent wintry showers across northern and eastern parts of the UK, particularly down the North Sea coasts. However, there will be a good deal of dry and sunny weather elsewhere. Some cold and clear nights, with widespread frost and the risk of icy patches. Some cloudier, milder interludes are possible at times, particularly in the west. Temperatures generally below the average throughout.
Updated at: 1302 on Fri 30 Dec 2016
UK Outlook for Saturday 14 Jan 2017 to Saturday 28 Jan 2017:
Latest suggestions favour a continuation of a very 'blocked' pattern, with drier and colder than normal conditions across the UK, and an increasing risk of fog and frost. However, we are likely to see brief, milder and wetter conditions at times. Generally, temperatures are expected to be below the average. There is a low risk of very cold conditions developing should the 'blocked' pattern persist, allowing a colder easterly flow to become established, with associated threat of snow in places.
Updated at: 1302 on Fri 30 Dec 2016 |
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Jehu wrote: |
| meteofrance is forecasting hardly any snow, snowforecast. com "heavy snow". Is the latter site funded by the ski resorts? |
No. But they do use a bit of exaggeration. And of course, GFS. This is what they say about their sources.
| Quote: |
Where does your weather model come from?
Although the actual snowfall forecasts are made using our computers at snow-forecast.com, the raw weather forecast data comes from the National Weather Service (NWS) in America; the largest organisation of its kind in the world. Serious weather forecasting requires massive computer power, vast expertise and an almost unlimited budget. Only a very few organisiations in the world can achieve this, arguably only two! If they are honset, most small weather companies derive their products from people like NOAA and ECMWF, and those that don't would probably become much more reliable if they did! To our credit we do much more than simply re-package NOAA products, but without them as a basis, our service couldn't exist at all.
We use the Global Forecast System (GFS) weather models for our input data. For our purposes these are ideal, not only because they are detailed, reliable and frequently updated, but also, because they are intended for aviation planning. Thus, they contain accurate descriptions of how conditions vary with elevation. This provides the key to how we derive surface temperature over a wide range of altitudes using digital elevation models. When we combine this with preciptiation forecasts, we arrive at snowfall.
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They say they don't repackage their forecasts, but they are not really telling the truth. They tweak it a bit, but it's still basically GFS. And their confusing NOAA and NWS. And they say "for our purposes these are ideal" for detail, reliability and frequency and aviation planning. The latter is garbage and their reasoning isn't these anyway, it's because GFS is free, and that is because it isn't as accurate as EC, which charges $250000 for just their 10 day forecast. So these companies just present GFS data and tweak it and pretend it's accurate data, just because they don't shell out for EC or UKMO data.
I wouldn't touch them IMHO. Try Yr.no or if your really GFS thirsty, just look at Tropical Tidbits or Wetterzentrale, which don't rip you off.
/endrant
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Thanks jellybeans1000. very helpful.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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These fronts just seem to keep getting pushed back. So frustrating! Guess the hikers will be happy ...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| moffatross wrote: |
| I'm liking the UK Met Office 30 day thoughts. Good for proper winter in the UK, and good for the Alps too, Once we've got a firm block around somewhere, so long as it's not situated bang over, or just east of the UK te whole time, there's room for some pleasant surprises |
I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Generally, if you want snow in the Northern Alps, for example, you need an airmass that comes from the Atlantic, preferably a polar maritime airmass or returning polar maritime; this is a cold, and importantly, moist airmass. Generally, a blocking high results in a dry and cold airmass from the NE, known as a polar continental airmass. This is what we have at the moment and is generally what you get with high pressure centred over Europe. It's cold and dry and no use for snow , unless you like skiing on the manmade stuff most of the alps is covered with at the moment.
I admire your optimism but the reality is perhaps different.
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@zzz, Ah, a person who knows what he's talking about 😀 might I just add that as a general guide if the mass is travelling from north to south it is travelling from cold to warm and as it is being warmed it is therefore becoming unstable which is good news. Look at the source, what the airmass has travelled over and it's stability and you'll get a fair idea of what's going to happen. It's just very basic meteorology but it's the best place to start.
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You know it makes sense.
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@esaw1, agreed
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Raven wrote: |
| These fronts just seem to keep getting pushed back. So frustrating! Guess the hikers will be happy ... |
Yes, but they have all summer to hike!
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Poster: A snowHead
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| zzz wrote: |
| moffatross wrote: |
| I'm liking the UK Met Office 30 day thoughts. Good for proper winter in the UK, and good for the Alps too, Once we've got a firm block around somewhere, so long as it's not situated bang over, or just east of the UK te whole time, there's room for some pleasant surprises |
I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Generally, if you want snow in the Northern Alps, for example, you need an airmass that comes from the Atlantic, preferably a polar maritime airmass or returning polar maritime; this is a cold, and importantly, moist airmass. Generally, a blocking high results in a dry and cold airmass from the NE, known as a polar continental airmass. This is what we have at the moment and is generally what you get with high pressure centred over Europe. It's cold and dry and no use for snow , unless you like skiing on the manmade stuff most of the alps is covered with at the moment.
I admire your optimism but the reality is perhaps different. |
Though for the UK (I know moffatross was talking about the Alps too), winds from the N or NE can be good for Scotland (and some of the ski centres, e.g. Cairngorm / The Lecht) as they're exposed to north-facing coastlines. Not always such a good direction for the Alps though.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| zzz wrote: |
| moffatross wrote: |
| I'm liking the UK Met Office 30 day thoughts. Good for proper winter in the UK, and good for the Alps too, Once we've got a firm block around somewhere, so long as it's not situated bang over, or just east of the UK te whole time, there's room for some pleasant surprises |
I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Generally, if you want snow in the Northern Alps, for example, you need an airmass that comes from the Atlantic, preferably a polar maritime airmass or returning polar maritime; this is a cold, and importantly, moist airmass. Generally, a blocking high results in a dry and cold airmass from the NE, known as a polar continental airmass. This is what we have at the moment and is generally what you get with high pressure centred over Europe. It's cold and dry and no use for snow , unless you like skiing on the manmade stuff most of the alps is covered with at the moment.
I admire your optimism but the reality is perhaps different. |
That's also the CFS forecast for January too... I don't think January will be brilliant IMHO. Happy to be proven wrong though.
So what does this mean... Cold everywhere, fairly moist in the South, dry in the North.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Is it looking like the winter of 1962/63.....practically no snow for full season, I think this year was cited in this thread last year when significant snow was slow to arrive
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@DB, that would be great, feels a bit punchy mind you. Let's see.
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yes, looking good for some now as its within the 3 day range - although Noza's view is all that matters - confirm it Noza, please, we rely on you!
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I'll believe it when the snow is on the ground. If it came off would be good for Saalbach where I'm heading.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Looks to be getting generally cooler across Europe, including the UK. Looks mostly dry however. 
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| zzz wrote: |
| moffatross wrote: |
| I'm liking the UK Met Office 30 day thoughts. Good for proper winter in the UK, and good for the Alps too, Once we've got a firm block around somewhere, so long as it's not situated bang over, or just east of the UK te whole time, there's room for some pleasant surprises |
I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Generally, if you want snow in the Northern Alps, for example, you need an airmass that comes from the Atlantic, preferably a polar maritime airmass or returning polar maritime; this is a cold, and importantly, moist airmass. Generally, a blocking high results in a dry and cold airmass from the NE, known as a polar continental airmass. This is what we have at the moment and is generally what you get with high pressure centred over Europe. It's cold and dry and no use for snow , unless you like skiing on the manmade stuff most of the alps is covered with at the moment.
I admire your optimism but the reality is perhaps different. |
Your starting premise is wrong. Europe has not been under the influence of a cold and dry airmass but a mild and slack one. Without a decent temperature gradient, weather won't happen, and though snowmaking is possible under inversion conditilns even wiith mild, slack air around (as has been the case in Europe for weeks), there'll be no useful snowfall without some proper cold air in the mix to shake it all up. Here's where we are just now, a very long way from a 'polar continental mass'. Get a decent long blast in from the north or the east, and we'll get nice surprises.
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FAQ
