 Poster: A snowHead
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Weathercam, can't quite work out why you're posting trip reports in this thread as well as in the local one(s)? 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Was wondering the same thing.....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Weathercam, but if everyone skiing happily in nice conditions all over the Alps did the same, we'd not be able to see the wood for the trees... (  )
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Indeed. I have no particular interest in the snow conditions of SC and if I did, I'd consult the appropriate thread.
And here's another one.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Weathercam, to be fair you have started about 20 threads in the Piste/Off Piste/Snow Report sections this season… you've taken some really lovely photos and it's always nice to hear about people enjoying their season… but maybe you could wave it about on one of those threads instead..? 
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19:20 and now 4.5 - that's really "mild" for this time of night with a clear sky - be interesting to see what it goes down to overnight.
Mind you that's for those of us that have to take an interest in that, and see how the trend develops going forward vs forecast/outlook
Even more so for the thirty or so Snowheads who are now out here in SC, of whom I met a few tonight.
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| Quote: |
the thirty or so Snowheads who are now out here in SC
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who will therefore not need to consult an internet forum to know what the weather is like. And who will, I hope, regularly be updating the SC thread about conditions and the Bash thread about their adventures.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Weathercam wrote: |
Mind you that's for those of us that have to take an interest in that, and see how the trend develops going forward vs forecast/outlook
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Not really too sure what you're talking about.
Anyway looking at a Meteogram in a neighbouring area at 1679m
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_060450_g05.png
It looks like remaining mild for a while longer before temperatures fall overnight. Serre Chevalier valley is around 1200 so you would expect it to be around freezing at 1850m if it's 4.5 at 1200m, that looks about in line with the forecast before falling overnight and bringing the freezing level down. That overnight freezing level will drift up during the week, but doesn't look like rising over 1650m.
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nozawaonsen, sitting in front of a PC does not always give you the complete picture.
For instance Serre Che valley goes from circa 1200 to nigh on 1500.
I'm at 1400 on South facing slopes which is very different to the same altitude opposite me on North facing side.
When ski touring you have to take numerous factors into consideration, as you have to try and second guess the correct timing of when the snow might transform, obviously this will differ depending on which route you might be considering relative to slope aspect and gradient, even a subtle change in gradient / aspect might necessitate the use of crampons, or not.
The above therefore also means having to plan as to what time to leave in the morning, selecting the route, to be sure that after slogging up for a couple of hours you at least get a reasonable descent.
And you have to take into account how soon / fast temps will rise, it's not just about freezing levels over night.
Going outside now and "feeling" the snow in the garden, comparing it to previous nights, taking into account the current temp etc etc is all part of the decision process.
The final part of the jigsaw is when I let the dogs out at around 07:00 (really scientific that one) and assess what might be the best option.
Three days ago we could start at 10:30 / 11:00 today really we should have been on our way by 09:00 and if the forecast / outlook for warmer temps is correct then will have to be earlier.
And last season is still fresh in many of our minds, when very warm temps caused many impromptu slides, not just in the afternoon.
Back then I will not forget the advice a good friend of mine, a guide gave us, "do not go out today in the mountains (ski touring) if you want to stay alive"
And local avalanche bulletin sort of reinforces the concerns that always might exist, and that's just for today going in to tomorrow
Dans les versant ensoleillés et jusqu'à des altitudes élevées plein sud, le manteau neigeux commence à prendre des allures printanières. Après un bon regel nocturne, la neige s'humidifie en suivant la course du soleil . Des départs spontanés d'avalanches de neige humide sont alors possibles en versants sud-est puis sud et ouest. Ils s'annoncent généralement de petite taille mais on ne peut exclure une avalanche de plus grande ampleur à proximiité de barres rocheuses où dans dans les pentes raides encores très chargées.
One will be monitoring that closely as we move into next week.
Already today there were visible spring slides from rocks heating up and the like, and with the volume(s) of snow we've had sooner or later some of that will go (hopefully a lot later and when no one is around late afternoon).
Hope that explains what I was sort of going on about
And yes, I know I'm in the minority on here in what I do, but hope that explains a little more.
And all the Snowheads out here are in very good hands and will not be having to make those decisions.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Perhaps those who want that sort of thing, at extreme length, on this thread would like to voice their support. Please form an orderly queue.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Pedantica, so weather outlook relative to snow pack / avalanche conditions is not important, give me a break
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Weathercam, it does a bit, but not completely. You'll excuse me perhaps if I smile a bit at your comment "sitting in front of a PC does not always give you the complete picture." Anyone who suggested otherwise would of course be foolish indeed, as indeed would anyone who thought that the small shifts that come about from changes in aspect and local conditions don't play a major role in how the snow pack will change in the course of the day and risks may subsequently evolve.
Your comment above seems to suggest that in some way I might have not considered this or indeed somehow aimed to downplay the importance of this or the risks. I certainly haven't. This is just a silly thread on an internet site. Over the time I've posted on here I have repeatedly said you shouldn't take it that seriously and also that you should always read the local avalanche bulletin. There you go I said it again. So fundamentally I see no point of disagreement there.
It seems to me you're very fortunate to be able to spend the season living on the mountains. Doubtless you worked hard to do so. From what you've posted you seem to be thriving on the experience and learning lots. But you also seem to endlessly seek to promote yourself (it seems more often than not the links you post are to your own site, and the repetitive refrain of guides who are your friends) and denigrate others, dismissively calling them "happy holiday makers" for example. If you at times get the sense you are causing frustration this might be the cause.
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much  on Sun 9-03-14 0:50; edited 2 times in total
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You know it makes sense.
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This is a great thread, let's not wreck it! Lighten up people, it's an Internet forum!
On topic, arrived tonight at Les Arc 1950 to zero degrees, was 14 down in Chambery.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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18z GFS introduces colder weather from 19 March.
Still at this point too far off to have great confidence in, but there is a fair amount of consistency over recent runs.
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Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen,
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you also seem to endlessly seek to promote yourself (it seems more often than not the links you post are to your own site, and the repetitive refrain of guides who are your friends) and denigrate others, dismissively calling them "happy holiday makers" for example. If you at times get the sense you are causing frustration this might be the cause.
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^ ^ This, for me. If it appears on trip report or local weather/snow condition threads, at least it can be avoided, but I feel it's a shame to pollute this wonderful thread, which is of huge general interest.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Pedantica wrote: |
nozawaonsen,
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you also seem to endlessly seek to promote yourself (it seems more often than not the links you post are to your own site, and the repetitive refrain of guides who are your friends) and denigrate others, dismissively calling them "happy holiday makers" for example. If you at times get the sense you are causing frustration this might be the cause.
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^ ^ This, for me. If it appears on trip report or local weather/snow condition threads, at least it can be avoided, but I feel it's a shame to pollute this wonderful thread, which is of huge general interest. |
What Pedantica said about polluting the thread!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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OK guys point taken about the trip reports......
For the record I set up a domain, Weatherheads.com in the mid 90's and have been doing weather related stuff for a long while, sometimes as a business (inc snow), now just as a "hobby".
Back in the UK I run a very popular site for mainly wind and kite surfers - traffic for instance (Jan/Feb) due to the weather back in the UK is up 58% year on year 96,236 vs 60,922 page views.
What I've experienced over those years is that weather is so fickle, and forecasts even with millions invested in technology are still questionable at local levels.
It's one thing trying to forecast the wind for your local beach, but when it comes to snow, the Mountains are in a different league.
Prior to being out full time I was fortunate to spend far more than a couple of weeks a year out here.
But what I have experienced more being out here this season, as I have done a fair bit of travelling, is the staggering dramatic differences in snow accumulation between resorts 10-15km away, and how the pretty icon orientated forecast sites such as snow-forecast.com and others can be so totally wrong, even on the day, let alone five days in advance.
So from my perspective I do find it frustrating when some take what is forecast as gospel almost.
There again at the end of the day (awful phrase) we're all hopefully after the same thing, but there again I've been admonished on here for wanting that (snow)
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Weathercam, don't think I'd disagree with much of that and it's great that you're having a good season out there. I like the photos.
Not that it's worth a great deal, but here's some general thoughts from the back end of 2011.
"- Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.
- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.
- Don't take it that seriously."
The last comment referring to forecasting generally rather than the local avalanche forecast which I would take seriously.
Anyway, the broad trend remains with high pressure dominant until at least 19 March.
Enjoy the sunshine, look cool on the terrace.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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06z GFS holds the pattern until... 19 March at which point cold and snowy weather would return.
Weathercam, Austrian reports are issued first thing in the morning. Swiss in the afternoon with an update to the risk level first thing. I imagine most resorts would reserve the option to alter the actual avalanche level on the day.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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waynos, I hope your right, then it spreads into eastern France!!!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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waynos, Snow between the 16th and the 19th, and then sun, would be ideal. No harm in hoping...
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I noticed the same.....fingers crossed !
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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ECMWF are predicting snow on/around the 16th for the eastern Alps as far as I can tell.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Now just need that to drift across to Tignes 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| SkiG wrote: |
| Now just need that to drift across to Tignes |
+1
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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+2
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Sooo.
ECMWF going for a real arctic plunge around the 18/19th, even those in the UK would be excited based on its latest output.
GFS trends it sunny this week with cooler and wetter weather returning around the 18/19th. The gefs kept it more to the eastern alps.
The Canadian GEM backs this with snow for the eastern alps being forecast for next weekend and then much of the week.
The JMA keeps it a fine dry week but it doesnt go too far in to the future.
Those going this week will have a good week, not too cold, sunny.
From next weekend things appear to be going unsettled moving in from the East. The GEM keeps this towards the East in Austria, while the last several runs of the GFS show this affecting much more of the alps. The ECMWF making much of the alps very cold from about the middle of next week. Of course, this is still some way out and settled spells have a chance of hanging around. So we shall see what comes about. The GFS in its ensembles confident until the 18th i would say.
This time next week Ill have had me first day!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Thank you nozawaonsen, I just love this thread
Way more exciting than anything on the telly.
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ECMWF going for a real arctic plunge around the 18/19th,
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Then the very next run had temperatures soaring.
Really no point in looking at anything beyond 6-7 days.
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This should be renamed as the "What To Pack / What To Wear" thread.
Can any resort-based reporters please confirm whether the snow in the Western Alps (Espeace Killy, in particular) is freezing overnight at the moment and at roughly what altitude?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Jonpim wrote: |
Thank you nozawaonsen, I just love this thread
Way more exciting than anything on the telly. |
This 
I've got 12 days till I go, and this thread is starting to read like a thriller, with twists and turns on a daily basis.
Maybe I should get out more...
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Jonpim, Handy Turnip, +1
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FAQ
caveats noted.... but still 
