 Poster: A snowHead
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I can't believe that anyone bothers looking at the right hand side of an ensemble graph and taking it seriously. You are lucky if the middle of the graph is accurate.
It will be what it is and the emsembles can give you a reasonable guide to what it will be for the next 3-4 days, nothing more.
Don't get me wrong, as a former windsurfer, former pilot and now a road cyclist, I love looking for forecasts that show me what I want them to show. It never pans out beyond 3 days though.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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bar shaker, that's generally true, but there are also fairly often indications of trends that appear in the 10 to 14 day range, which if they are sustained can develop support (ideally cross model and multiple runs) and potentially suggest detail over the 5 to 10 day range and tighten the detail as they come into the final stretch.
Taking one ensemble from one run from one model in isolation is pretty pointless. Doing so if it has just cropped up in FI would just be a waste of space.
Even when some form of pattern shift is developing you would still expect the runs to shift back and forth. Models like GFS tend to encourage these apparent fluctuations because the publically available output runs four times a day and extends out to +384.
But certainly seeing an outcome in low res and setting your heart on it will probably lead to repeated disappointment...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Just for Iantr one sleep to go  Apologies to anyone who doesnot like it. Please ignore. Very easy to do if you want.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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twoodwar, have a great time.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Time for me to make a completely non-scientific prediction on this thread: there will be a decent amount of new snow falling in Serre Chevalier on or very close to Feb 17.
This is based on two things:
1. my mother gets to Serre Chevalier the evening of 16 Feb. She has an amazing record of getting the weather she wants on her holidays, winter or summer. Not perfect, but never really bad.
2. snowball is in La Grave the week starting 11 Feb. I've been to a number of trips with him (I was supposed to be on this one but then the ACL happened) - more often than not, we get poor snow to start with and then it snows mid-week or with a couple of days to go.
I have to say that the snowball statistical regularity is less robust, both in terms of sample size and correlation, so the snow may actually arrive a couple of days later.
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Think the idea of snow has gone out of the window for us next week in the grand massif. looks like going to be very warm over the weekend, Whats the chance of it being cold enough on a night to preserve/replace what is currently there? could be an awful lot of melting going on with +10 forecast sunday and monday 
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mattiwilkin, yes this weekend looks warm and sunny. After that the rest of the week looks pretty dry, sunny, blue skies and mild. Should be pleasant in the sunshine, but snowcover will suffer.
The week after still holds some interesting options in 12z GFS. Colder weather approaching (though not quite getting there) from the east mixing with Atlantic lows from the west. Still too far off to have any real confidence as numerous people have said, if GFS is to be believed a colder option is looking further away tonight (indeed none of the 12z ensembles are especially cold), it will be interesting to see which way ECM goes.
Chamonix
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Fri 4-02-11 20:20; edited 1 time in total
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Hmm, ECM certainly has not given up on cold from the east. A chilly Valentine's day...
So something of a split between GFS and ECM...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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so for those of us locked into half term skiing in the alps it could well be colder and snowier than it is now.. (admittedly not difficult..)
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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[beer edit] Not a bad 18z GFS. Which offers the potential for some snow, but off in the distance and too far out to have any confidence. Like the 12z (and unlike ECM) it is a milder and more Atlantic option. So it will be interesting to see over the weekend whether the models start to lean more towards the GFS (wetter) or ECM (colder) solution.
Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Sat 5-02-11 8:27; edited 6 times in total
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Starting to think more positive for half term now. accuweather and Netweather.tv now suggesting a break in the weather around the 12th and Netweather for Val Cenis at least suggesting cold and heavy snow through to the 19th/20th at the end of their runs. Still a long way off as everyone says and time to change, but at least the trends seem to have changed to something more wintery. More than has been showing on a number of the sites for a while. Maybe I don't need to think about whether the mountain bike should be on the roof rack with the skis!
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ECM shifts away from it's very cold outlook this morning siding with a more Atlantic milder GFS option.
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You know it makes sense.
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nozawaonsen, how is scotland shaping up,'possible for a detailed outlook? Thanks, love reading your posts!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Any one looked to see what the jet stream is doing?
Is the oscillation moving to a position that will fire low pressure systems across Europe?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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victory to me by a nose 
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phillip33, if you snooze, you lose!!!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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0z ECMWF removes the deep cold, but does look like a wet run. Lowering pressure over southern Europe allows the Atlantic to blast through. 0z GFS run isn't as good with high pressure close by.
I don't think we're going to see any deep cold, but after this weekend it doesn't look like we're going to see a southerly blowtorch raging over the hills.
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wet is good for me as going to Valdisere this time, so hopefully the high slopes will get something natural fingers crossed
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I'd been meaning to collect some pieces on the jet stream's behavior this season and bar shaker's comment above reminded me.
Here is a good shot of the jet roaring into Scotland on Thursday night. The full force of the Atlantic being turned on the north (and spreading across the UK now). High winds, violent temperature fluctuations, heavy rain and snow.
Here it is in late January when the high pressure was stuck over the UK, preventing the high pressure from moving.
Here it is in mid/late December. Block in place over Greenland, split polar vortex heading down towards UK.
And here is how it could look next week ( ) Possibly bringing a more Atlantic feel to the Alps... possibly letting heights rise to the north?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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GFS 12z operational turns quite cold in FI. Has some snowy options too in just over a week.
It would of course be nice to see something that moved into high res...
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
GFS 12z operational turns quite cold in FI. Has some snowy options too in just over a week.
It would of course be nice to see something that moved into high res... |
its beginning to look better now and perhaps more confident for the high to move,and some snowrain to come in still not sure of temperatures but getting more and more confident,the jet stream,s the key
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Whats the time scale heading out for a week tomorrow for a week. will i have gone before the snow arrives?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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mattiwilkin, this week in the Alps looks like being warm and sunny with blue skies. Not much likelihood of fresh snow (very slim possibility something might happen at the end of the week, stronger in Austria).
Should be some great views on the mountains and potentially on the terraces at lunch time. Pack your sun glasses.
The week after... You could be missing snow. You could be missing white out conditions. You could be missing rain.
So enjoy the lovely sunny slopes this week. 
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You know it makes sense.
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18z GFS operational again looks like it brings in the Atlantic just over a week from now with potential for snow across the Alps (snow on Valentine's day?)
Interestingly it also builds the heights to the north over Scandinavia. Which could still bring in cold from the east (GFS is not quite as keen on this as other models this evening) to meet the precipitation from the Atlantic.
All in FI. All unclear (in particular what happens when the Atlantic flow comes up against high pressure in the east, does it crash through or get pushed into a more southerly flow, the latter could be good).
But not looking too bad.
[edit: incidentally for anyone heading over next week, Japan should be good. Snow storm coming into Hokkaido Monday/Tuesday, a separate system hits Honshu midweek before heading north and then it looks like an evening bigger storm hitting Honshu towards the end of the week...]
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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nozawaonsen, fingers crossed for some snow the week after next then - just in time for my arrival on the 22nd.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The battle between good and .... continues. Great commentary as always. Place your bets!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Following this thread with great interest, heading to morillon on 28th of Feb. First time I've commented as actually seems to be vereing towards a slightly more positive (shhhhh) outlook for the first time. Thank you so much for all the hard work predicting the possibilities. Hope it snows loads soon for everyone.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| snowmam wrote: |
| First time I've commented as actually seems to be vereing towards a slightly more positive (shhhhh) outlook for the first time. |
Snowman welcome to outlook
That's blown it!
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I've got it............never mind GFS / Jetstream hot cold........
For all those resorts struggling for snow, I offer you my borther for hire...............
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finally found a place where the long range forecasts are being discussed. Fascinating reading. Going to Les 2 Alpes 12-19th. good chance of snow midweek?
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Absolutely scorchio today, sitting in a café at 1800m in a T-shirt feeling the sun burning my back right through it! Made for a nice day for a big local party here, but let's hope for a swing back to colder weather sharpish! Latest GFS looks pretty good on that front, now seems to be backing some really quite cold weather after Valentine's day.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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RetroBod, utterly brilliant photo! 
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Watching the 12z GFS operational as it came out.
Not bad at all.
Same basic pattern as the 06z. High pressure builds over Scandinavia. Cold air pours in from the east (not quite as extremely cold as the 06z, but that's no bad thing) to meet wet air rolling in from the Atlantic, delivering snow to the Alps from around Valentine's Day (potentially pretty snowy for the UK too). Of course the usual caveats apply. It is over a week away and plenty could change...
It will be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles. It was noticeable in the 06z run that both the control and the operational took the super cold route.
Slightly closer in the 12z also produced snow in Austria on Friday evening into Saturday, spreading through the rest of the Alps Saturday. There have been a few hints of this on previous runs. So worth keeping an eye on this. 
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