 Poster: A snowHead
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Conversely Meteo Swiss has altered quite significantly in the last 6 hours or so.
Now showing a slight increase in precipitation and increased frequency through this week.
North flank of Alps Jungfrau region . @Rob Mackley,
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@surferrosa, la thuile. It'll get snow from both sides.
But even better, abandon the TO and just go DIY then you will have your choice. Sites like Heidi will do the work for you including transfer if you like.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Raining in Geneva
WRF has 5cm here to 1500 ish.
12z mostly good, but Sunday 25th a bit wobbly with 2 or 3 models (eg GEM) bringing the secondary (shortwave) low in too far west initially
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@polo, seeing some snow in the models. 22nd first then 24th for NW alpes. Not huge figures but should see some must needed snow
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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How's it looking for the Dolomiti Superski areas? I have a chance to ski there the week of 26 February and see there may be rain in the lower villages (Ortisei, etc.). Thanks in advance!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Alchemist,
You will be fine. If anything, get good goggles, visibility might be an issue ... in lower laying resorts where snow line cuts through the ski area "flat" light might be an issue. Just saying 
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Presumably snowing lightly along northern ridge to the east today.....looks like a little fresh layer at 1800m Avoriaz last night
End of week....it looks like the cold might arrive a little earlier than previously modeled, GFS shows the cold air boundary arriving thursday evening now (22nd), as opposed to friday morning. However, ECM is not as good as we'll see below.
The sunday wobble is less of an issue on overnight runs, as it gets better absorbed (phases) with the main long wave trough to the north. Will still lead to a brief spike in temps, but nothing disasterous at the moment. Small changes in the track of these slider lows along the base of an upper trough can be hard to model, so not resolved yet. But they are proper little snow / rain bombs. GFS 06z below has it slamming into northern spain on latest run.
While monday 26th mean anomalies largely unchanged.....more snow likely, esp Pyrenees, massif central, with avg temps in the west
  
Comparing ECM and GFS ensembles......ECM has more ppn on thurs, when the FL is unfortunately still high. As is often the case, the mean is running 1-3 degrees warmer than GFS. Can see the bump in temps to 0 at 850hpa on 25-26th, but also the ECM Op (black) is a slighlty warm outlier for early next week. GFS also seeing heavier ppn 25-27th.
 
Here are some of the latest Op runs for Monday.....spot the odd one out....the last image ECM, wants to topple the atlantic ridge in over the UK, cutting off the NW flow. One to keep an eye on, but looking like an outlier at the moment. So other models basically keep the atlantic door open into early next week.
    
And the 4 most recent GFS snow charts to Monday.....latest last
   
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| denfinella wrote: |
@polo, your map looks like the 23rd snow event may be focused on the SE part of the Alps, at least at first. What are your thoughts? Italy is having a very dry season indeed so far.
P.S. am aware that the latest GFS op run is a snowy outlier so amounts on the map above shouldn't be taken literally. |
Some parts of Italy - Sella Ronda seems to have a bit more snow than last year
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@buchanan101, yeah it's been dry for most of the Italian Alps this winter (so far...) but last winter was even drier!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Interesting swing in intensity away from the Southern Alps and towards West and North on Bergfex and Wepowder at least, but it seems all areas will be getting a top up anyway
In fairness, this is just what the Alps needs, hopefully it gets low enough
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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You know it makes sense.
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As my trip to Mayrhofen on March 8 approaches, the snow situation is looking potentially much better. Meanwhile, though, one of our party of 4 fell and fractured his tibia a couple of weeks ago and so isn't going, and now my OH fell and dislocated her shoulder last week and is very doubtful too for the trip. 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| J2R wrote: |
| ...and now my OH fell and dislocated her shoulder last week and is very doubtful too for the trip. |
We're off to Hemel for a warm-up before our March trip - I'm wrapping the OH in bubble-wrap before we leave the house!!
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Poster: A snowHead
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The weather is looking a bit more promising than it was - less than 2 weeks to go - toss up between getting fitter or being careful as recovery tine now is limited. Better stay put and watch the webcams!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Huge snow forecasted on snow-forecast for Sunday. Val d'sere currently expecting 68cm on Sunday!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@winterstickboarder, See what it says on Saturday!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @winterstickboarder, See what it says on Saturday! |
haha thats very true! But it's nice to see something positive  even if it leads to false hope!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Bergfex and Yr not in the game this morning … must be outliers as Meteo Blue definitely is.
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@franga, question is when does an outlier become the front runner…..ECM is no longer alone with sundays shortwave spoiler s***show. Once UKMO joined the party yesterday my weekend concerns went up a level. So we now have 5/7 models tracking the secondary low thru Normandy / bay of Biscay, with only ICON and GFS (Météo blue) with the more favorable phasing towards the alps. Result is mild air (+3 at 850 not out of the question in the NW) and drier northern alps (sun-tues).
The knock on effect of this cut off low heading to Iberia instead of Greece is the ridge toppling in over UK and closing the door for a while on the Atlantic. Something most UK dwellers will probably welcome.
Still there is no shortage of drama further out……possible round 2 from the NW 1st Mar (EC46 hasn’t changed for week2) followed by a cold scandi high, very weak strat pv etc. Worst case would be for the whole Atlantic ridge/trough pattern to keep trending west.
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@franga, yes YR has not been good reading since yesterday for us down South, and a few others now depressingly coming onside too, though a few models now showing more accumulation for the middle of next week.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| franga wrote: |
| Bergfex and Yr not in the game this morning … must be outliers as Meteo Blue definitely is. |
Bergfex still shows modest fall in Sella Ronda...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Some fascinating model watching at the moment for those who like that kind of thing. The shortwave track on Sunday is still leading to big swings in the outlook into next week. Looking at the GFS 12z as an example....you can see the warm pocket of air coming up from the SW as the low comes in over the Biscay area sunday evening.
The next frame, 1am Monday morning is peak antropy at the moment....a very rare chart here on GFS 12z showing a 975mb low over Paris, which would be a Cat 2 hurricane based on pressure alone (not sure what the wind speeds will be). And a precipitation chart for the same timeframe shows the western end getting a direct hit.
 
However, low odds in my view of GFS getting this right as nearly all the others keep the low further W/SW. So really can't say where this one goes yet. Dry and warm, cold and wet....take your pick, as each part of the alps will have different outcomes, especially if it tracks east.
Here are 5 models showing the range of possible 1500m temps at that same timestamp.....anything from -4 to +8 depending on which model, and which part of the alps.
    
The anomaly charts for next week (26-4th) are all still positive though, EC46, NOAA...still showing NW trough into southern europe, albeit with a quite a narrow gap between highs to the west and east. So the broad expectation is a few days of calm (27/28th) before more disturbance from the west into month end....though it also looks too far west at the moment, initially. Plenty of time for change as 10 days away.
Looking at ensembles, GFS has now caught up with ECM for ppn on thursday to a high level (1900 NW), and a warmer mean temp into next week, just above zero at 1500m. So not ideal....but I wouldn't rule out more changes given the uncertainty early on.
Means for 27th showing the cut off low to the SW...sending milder air towards the alps
 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Polo as much as anytime, are the coming days all about marginal temperatures? Precipitation certain.
ECMWF’s meteogram for Selva now forecasts greater precipitation at 40mm on Friday, which would give a fantastic dump of circa 40cm snow. BUT village level temperatures of +3c to +8c.
Whilst GFS on wetterzentrale tonight, almost inevitably, forecasts the mother of all snow dumps across the entire Alps …. from this Thursday to Saturday 2nd March.
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As predicted -- last week -- the upcoming forecast is looking like rain down low, snow up top.
Some lower slopes in Italy and elsewhere today are starting to muddy up and close down.
Middle and upper trails remain okay.
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You know it makes sense.
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10C here in Zell am See. Also predicted to get up to 7C on Saturday when all the snow is supposed to hit. So far the snow is much worse than last year
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Meteo Tarentaise take on the next 48hrs , for those around at the weekend enjoy the great conditions .
Previewing the upcoming disturbed episode
Thursday:
  stay disturbed!
A disturbance is coming Wednesday evening with light rainfall, these light rainfall will affect us overnight.
Intensities will remain low until late Thursday morning, with a LPN next night at 1600m first night and 1600/1500m second night, 5cm expected above 1800m.
In the first part of the afternoon, the rainfall becomes more intense, it is especially in the second part of the afternoon that the intensity is the most remarkable.
These sometimes intense rainfall will affect us until the first part of the night from Thursday to Friday.
In the valley, on this Thursday, we expect 20 to 40 mm depending on sectors.
Snow during the afternoon at 2000m, then 1800m in the late afternoon.
In the first part of the night, the LPN falls with a tilt that will be clear, expected around 22h/23h, we find snow from 1100/1200m, locally up to 800m at the end of the night under the last rainfall.
Friday, will then be under a slender sky with showers in the morning, and the return of clearness in the second part of the day, in the morning, the showers will turn into flakes from 1000m, at very low intensity.
Over the whole episode, we expect 30 to 40cm of snow above 2000m, 15/20cm from 1700/1800m, 5 to 10cm above 1400/1500m, possible dusting up to 1000/1100m altitude.
Wind will be sensitive on this episode at altitude, strengthening overnight and strengthening again during the day and could blow strongly over the West slopes of the Massifs between mid-afternoon and late evening, with gusts to 70/90km/h and locally to 100/130km/h on exposed ridges and peaks.
Back to calm next for this weekend, with a sharp drop in temperatures, we'll talk about it again on Friday in the bulletin!
Have a nice day!
Roman VIVIANI by Météo Tarentaise
Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
( www.laradiostation.fr )
Map of possible cumulus (in mm) seen by ARPEGE, not to be taken at the foot of the letter!
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Poster: A snowHead
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| südtirolistdeutsch wrote: |
| 10C here in Zell am See. Also predicted to get up to 7C on Saturday when all the snow is supposed to hit. So far the snow is much worse than last year |
Wasn’t Xmas Eve to the end of February last year, the worst ever? Heat and rain.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Now the second of the half term holidays are nearly over much less angst and anxiety on here a couple of weeks break before the run up to the Easter hols
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Snow&skifan, yes despite the upcoming change in pressure (more SW troughing than SE), the ppn charts are still loaded.
9 models here out to Tuesday, with some extraordinary numbers for northern italy....UKMO has over 450mm there, while the west is back to 2nd place with 40-70mm.
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/swiss-mrf/switzerland/accumulated-precipitation/20240227-1800z.html
@Whitegold, I have your medal here  , but more detail (FL's, locations) would be great. We've known the FL would start high all along, and given the long forecast trajectory of the incoming low, it was always going to start as rain below 2000m, as do 90% of westerly atlantic episodes. But the finish is more important, and there will definitely be snow in valleys, just not as much as previously hoped for.
GFS has been a big disappointment again. It's a very good model at picking up pattern changes 7-10 days out, often leading the way, but it completely falls apart with resolving the detail in the near term, regularly being the last model to change track at the last minute. Case in point, just look at where that phantom Paris 'hurricane' is now being modelled.....just the 500km further west than the last run....and only 5 days away.
Not only that, but it also got tomorrows forecast badly wrong.....for almost a week it has suggested most ppn would fall thurs night (as snow), but it has now completely caved to ECM's call for heavy rain all day now below 1800m., only dropping towards 1000m for the last 10cm or so overnight into Friday (ref NW). Nevertheless, here's the latest GFS snow chart to tuesday.
ECM has actually increased it's projections, with chances of useful top ups every day, .....albeit with a rising snowline into next week. 00z Op (black line) a worryingly warm outlier at +6c though, hopefully ends up closer to the mean +1 or 2, so 1600m FL approx (mon/tues) best case, probably higher though.
EC46 has been remarkably consistent with the pattern for week 26-4th, suggesting another round of drama around the 1st-2nd.
Looking at the strat PV, the second brief and marginal SSW is unlikely to have any impact (just like Jan). But winds are set for a much deeper plunge early March. This doesn't qualify as an unprecedented 3rd SSW though, because technically you'd need 20 consecutive days of postive westerly winds in between the 2 reversals.....which is unlikely, so the next plunge is counted as part of the Feb 19th minor reversal. Or it's possible that the plunge will be an early 'final warming'. Every year, usually April, the strat pv goes back to sleep. Early demises are common in El Nino's it seems....leading to cold Mar / Apr and warm Mays etc
I appreciate I am sounding like a broken record here, but March is going to deliver much better odds of high lat blocking and cold synoptics, than any of the previous "winter" months. -NAO incoming....at the turn of the new month, like clockwork.
Summing up most places are going to see wildly variable weather out to tues....rain, snow, wind, sun, cold, mild... on and off. End result should be a huge improvement on where we are today, and the future is still bright.
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Wed 21-02-24 10:47; edited 2 times in total
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Thanks @polo
I've been looking at the Pyrenees side of things and it seems like GFS messed up a lot of forecasts. I really find that one unreliable
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Hi all, lost my old log in details so had to create a new one. Used to find group this an invaluable resource when I organised many family/friends group ski trips in the past so it's good to be back! I arrive in a group of 8 in Morzine on Sunday 25 February and we ski for a week from Monday. I have never been to Morzine and from what I read there is quite a bit of skiing in the Morzine/Les Gets ski pass. HOWEVER, looking at the webcams for the last few weeks it looks like more snow is needed. I want to order the ski passes in advance as the saving is useful across 8 adults. I believe snow is expected later this week/weekend. No one is advanced in the group and ability ranges from intermediate to good intermediate and ages from 19 to 59. I don't think most of the group will need the PDS extended pass or be bothered about getting in loads of miles and different resorts. As long as there are a decent variety of rounds open and enjoyable ski conditions on the local pass that should be fine for our group. With current snow conditions am I making a bad call buying only the Morzine/Les Gets passes for our group? Any advice from snowheads familiar with or in the area appreciated!
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Hi all, lost my old log in details so had to create a new one. Used to find group this an invaluable resource when I organised many family/friends group ski trips in the past so it's good to be back! I arrive in a group of 8 in Morzine on Sunday 25 February and we ski for a week from Monday. I have never been to Morzine and from what I read there is quite a bit of skiing in the Morzine/Les Gets ski pass. HOWEVER, looking at the webcams for the last few weeks it looks like more snow is needed. I want to order the ski passes in advance as the saving is useful across 8 adults. I believe snow is expected later this week/weekend. No one is advanced in the group and ability ranges from intermediate to good intermediate and ages from 19 to 59. I don't think most of the group will need the PDS extended pass or be bothered about getting in loads of miles and different resorts. As long as there are a decent variety of runs open and enjoyable ski conditions on the local pass that should be fine for our group. With current snow conditions am I making a bad call buying only the Morzine/Les Gets passes for our group? Any advice from snowheads familiar with or in the area appreciated!
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| aidanjc01 wrote: |
| Hi all, lost my old log in details so had to create a new one. Used to find group this an invaluable resource when I organised many family/friends group ski trips in the past so it's good to be back! I arrive in a group of 8 in Morzine on Sunday 25 February and we ski for a week from Monday. I have never been to Morzine and from what I read there is quite a bit of skiing in the Morzine/Les Gets ski pass. HOWEVER, looking at the webcams for the last few weeks it looks like more snow is needed. I want to order the ski passes in advance as the saving is useful across 8 adults. I believe snow is expected later this week/weekend. No one is advanced in the group and ability ranges from intermediate to good intermediate and ages from 19 to 59. I don't think most of the group will need the PDS extended pass or be bothered about getting in loads of miles and different resorts. As long as there are a decent variety of runs open and enjoyable ski conditions on the local pass that should be fine for our group. With current snow conditions am I making a bad call buying only the Morzine/Les Gets passes for our group? Any advice from snowheads familiar with or in the area appreciated! |
My daughter has been to Morzine twice, only been skiing 4 times, and always ventured to Avoriaz and beyond. I think that would be the extended ski pass? For example she went for 4 days 2 weeks ago and did 1 day on the Les Gets side, then the rest exploring Avoriaz and beyond, all blues and greens I think.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@aidanjc01, @BoldSeagull, Probably best to ask on the PDS thread . This is about the weather outlook rather than conditions and questions for actual ski stations .
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| @aidanjc01, @BoldSeagull, Probably best to ask on the PDS thread . This is about the weather outlook rather than conditions and questions for actual ski stations . |
Yep I answered without realising the thread it was in. On this thread I generally only read posts that say there is going to be snow.
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FAQ
Great hope rests upon the next 2 weeks for cold snowy weather followed by a brilliant 3 weeks in March 
)
