 Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @davidof, yep that is very much like a @Whitegold trolling post. |
Thanks 
There is a serious point, and one whitegold (and others) made already in that if February continues to be warm with no snow currently at low altitudes the low lying ski areas are going to have a difficult year to say the least. This is the first time my nearest ski area hasn't opened by the end of January for a long while; although fingers crossed the current snow will make it possible.
Last year was similarly warm but it snowed a lot at the start of winter and there was little foehn so the snow lasted. Which just goes to show that very small changes in weather can have a big affect on low snow level snow cover.
Just to be clear at mid (1500m +) and high altitude the situation is pretty good, we've had a number of small falls in January which have kept the pistes in good condition and had excellent skiing at places like les 7 Laux since November.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@davidof, that’s true enough.
Though the proximity of a “serious point” and @Whitegold is probably (no, undoubtably) stretching things...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Am I right in thinking at the moment that the general forecast, precipitation aside, is for a little warm spell from around Sunday to Tuesday, and then a drop in temperature to below seasonal average from later on next week?
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Yeah roughly. Though not clear how long any cool spell might last because it’s too far out.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Understood. I'll certainly take that, for a holiday starting 9 Feb. Means newly fallen snow should still be in good nick, and whether it's warm and sunny or cold and snowy when we're there, it will be good either way. (Obviously mild and rainy is the one to avoid).
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Yeah roughly. Though not clear how long any cool spell might last because it’s too far out. |
It is going to be very warm it seems, records likely to be broken with +20C temps in the south of France, but no real worries for the snowpack in the short term as the nights are long and days are short.
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SCGB site is suggesting max of 10C at valley level where I'm going. Hopefully a very short spell, though. (And actually, I like a bit of slush skiing!)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Looks like great conditions in Obertauern and Zermatt now from all webcams 
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French end of Alps certainly looks quite hot briefly.
This is because the ooh la la index has turned very positive.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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The GFS has been slowly moving away from persistent nordstau conditions in the long range, or at least making it more transient next week. The flow is again looking more northwesterly or even westerly with a procession of storms accompanying progressive troughs. The extended range still looks active but just not particularly cold and not quite as good for lower elevations and possibly the southern Alps.
The ECM looks colder for now.
Obviously 7 days out is a low confidence outlook.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Looks like some periods of rain until the temperature drops on the 4th ?
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Reading that chart above, I am right in thinking a bit warm and wet the next few days and then from Tuesday next week getting colder and hopefully snowier.
I am off to Les Gets next Tuesday night for 4 days so trying to get an indication of what I might be able to expect.
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You know it makes sense.
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@mheadbee, yep, that’s right. You redddds
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Wasn't you reds last night, it was more you cheating time-wasting bar stewards 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Augsburg, Munich, Rosenheim, and Salzberg webcams all showing wet and green. Very unwintry winter so far. Can't even buy a good snowsquall. A light coating at 600m has mostly melted but snow is on the ground above about 700m. Several cms above 1000m and a significant snowfall in the usual favored areas. But it looks like most of Austria and Germany were spared the big totals, outside of the Vorarlberg.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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February Half term changeover day on the 15th - we're all doomed!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The 3 Valleys today got 40cm at ~2000m.
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@Whitegold, you forgot to say but it will all melt on Saturday
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Extract from SLF’s evening update.
” Observed weather on Wednesday, 29.01.2020
Skies were heavily overcast and it was windy. There was heavy snowfall down to low lying areas over widespread regions. Only in the furthermost southern regions did it remain dry and predominantly sunny.
Fresh snow
Between Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon above approximately 1800m,the following amounts of fresh snow were registered (due to storm-strength winds in some regions, the amounts of snowfall vary widely from place to place):
northern and furthermost western parts of Lower Valais, Leuk, Lötschental, Aletsch region and the Glarner Alps: 70 to 100 cm;
remaining regions north of an imaginary Rhine-Rhone line, remaining parts of Lower Valais, Gotthard region, upper valleys of Maggia and western part of the Jura region: 40 to 70 cm;
in the other regions of Switzerland, 20 to 40 cm over widespread areas;
in the Upper Engadine and the bordering valleys to the south, as well as in Sotto Ceneri, less.
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m, between -5 °C in the southwestern regions and - 7 °C in the northeastern regions.
Wind
During the night, winds were blowing at strong velocity to storm strength from westerly directions, during the daytime slackening off somewhat;
in the southern regions, winds were light-to-moderate from the northwest.
Weather forecast through Thursday, 30.01.2020
In the early part of the night in eastern regions, a small amount of snowfall is expected, subsequently skies will clear up in all regions of Switzerland. In the course of the day on Thursday, clouds will move in from the west. In the furthermost western regions a small amount of snowfall is expected in the afternoon, with a rapidly ascending snowfall level.
Fresh snow
Between Wednesday evening and Thursday evening, the following amounts of fresh snow are expected:
central and eastern sectors of the northern flank of the Alps, and northern Grisons: during Wednesday night, 5 to 15 cm of fresh snow expected above approximately 1000 m;
Jura region, Vaud Alps and Lower Valais: on Thursday afternoon only a few centimetres of fresh snow, as rainfall below 2000 m.
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m, between 0 °C in the northern regions and -2 °C in the southern regions.
Wind
Winds will be blowing at moderate to strong velocity from westerly directions;
in the southern regions, strong-velocity winds from the northwest.
Outlook through Saturday, 01.02.2020
Friday
On Thursday night a small amount of precipitation is anticipated. The snowfall level will ascend to approximately 2200 m. In the furthermost southern regions it is expected to remain dry. During the course of the day it will turn increasingly sunny from the west. In high alpine regions, fine weather is expected.
The danger of dry-snow avalanches is not expected to change significantly. As a result of rainfall and rising temperatures, moist-snow avalanches and, particularly in the western and northern regions, gliding avalanches can be expected.
Saturday
In early morning, cloud cover will swiftly move in from the west, followed by a small amount of precipitation. The snowfall level will continue to lie at about 2000 m. In the furthermost southern regions it is expected to remain dry. Avalanche danger levels will decrease, however only slowly in wind-protected shady terrain and in general in the inneralpine regions.”
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Aaargh bl00dy rain to 2000m wrecking the big dump of cold smoke... IMO this type of situation is where altitude matters most. At 2500m to 3500m there will still be good powder skiing (albeit care required due to wind slab). At 2000m it will be porridge.
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@chriswg, handy we are coming out on the 12th then !
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I have a feeling from the webcams that not nearly as much snow fell in the Monterosa area over the last couple of days as was forecast, despite it looking like it was snowing most of the time. Maybe just very light snow, affecting visibility but not amounting to much on the ground? Can't see any updated figures for snow depths either (SCGB site still saying last snowfall was 18 Jan). A little disappointing, but more appears to be on the way.
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| J2R wrote: |
| I have a feeling from the webcams that not nearly as much snow fell in the Monterosa area over the last couple of days as was forecast, despite it looking like it was snowing most of the time. Maybe just very light snow, affecting visibility but not amounting to much on the ground? Can't see any updated figures for snow depths either (SCGB site still saying last snowfall was 18 Jan). A little disappointing, but more appears to be on the way. |
I checked all models before the storm specifically for Monterosa and none of them showed significant snow for the immediate area... with terrain shadowing drying out most of the precipitation. Based on what I saw, it seems to have played out as expected. I doubt any official forecasts called for significant snow in that area (though I could be wrong). Model generated forecasts (which should be outlawed IMO) from various sites/vendors sometimes use low resolution, wide-area blending, or questionable snow algorithms. These are all highly suspect. Maybe that's what you are referring to by a "forecast."
There are lots of snow threats out in the mid and long range for Monterosa and elsewhere.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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More and more indications today that we are entering a new period of strongly positive AO and NAO index phasis from the second week of February 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Woosh, this of course will mean very little to non meteorologists I’m afraid. We are all skiers and want snow, I assume the sad face means warm and dry?
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| altaski8 wrote: |
These are all highly suspect. Maybe that's what you are referring to by a "forecast."
There are lots of snow threats out in the mid and long range for Monterosa and elsewhere. |
Well, I see from what I now know should be called snow-"forecast".com that 23cm of snow fell over the last couple of days, enough to freshen things up a bit without being the big dump really needed. Let's hope these other snow threats deliver rather more.
Not sure, incidentally, what I could turn to as a reliable official forecast for the area.
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You know it makes sense.
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Some really terrific conditions today as the sun comes out after the snow (though considerable avalanche risk in many places).
Ischgl
This Sunday could be quite challenging with rain to 2300m+ in west and 2100m+ in east. Heavy snow above, but the western end of the Alps could see storm strength winds (Not so much of an issue in the south and east which will be sunny if windy). I’d wager many people would probably prefer mild and sunny after an hour or two of that, but that’s not what happens next. Instead it’s cold and snowy from Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Certainly a long way from the lengthy settled conditions which characterised much of January.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@twoodwar, Correct, after a cold spell in the middle of next week, it looks more and more likely with return to midler and drier conditions.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Weather like life is all about highs and lows.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| J2R wrote: |
Not sure, incidentally, what I could turn to as a reliable official forecast for the area. |
Valle d'Aosta avalanche service have all the local data, helpfully in English too!
https://www.regione.vda.it/MappeNeve/default_e.aspx
Avalanche warnings suggest the Monte Rosa missed on the larger dumps which hit further north and west...
http://appweb.regione.vda.it/DBWeb/bollnivometeo/bollnivometeo.nsf
Only in Italian, but it's saying 40-60cm fresh snow (70-80cm in some windblown areas) in the zones shaded red (level 4), 20-40cm in the zones shaded orange (level 3), diminishing towards the SE.
Snow fell down to 1300-1500m, but is wet/heavy up to 2200-2400m.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@nozawaonsen, you're always one step ahead!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Wedenesday and rest of next week can get really good though, if the wind is not too bad
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Thanks, luigi and nozawaonsen. Yes, the maps do seem to show a decent snowfall. It would be good if true. I'm not too bothered about low level, because I can stay up high if necessary - there's skiing from 3200 metres there, and it's easy to stay above 2300 metres or so (assuming good visibility). Yes, snow cover is clearly very good, luigi, but frustratingly none of the webcams are good for showing new snow depth.
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The fresh snowfall depth at Monterosa compacted a lot over the course of three days and now with the warmth. It probably does not look all that impressive on cams compared to resorts further NW. The best skiing is high up right now. But it increases the depth and stability of the snow base for future storms.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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The long-range charts on the ECM and CMC now match the GFS in not looking so pretty after next Wednesday. Spring is suddenly not looking so far off.
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