 Poster: A snowHead
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Colours are what's called geopotential heights. Basically cold air is heavier than warm so the height at which 500hPa, about half sea level pressure is reached is lower when air is cold. Low heights also lead to instability which causes precipitation. Wiggles in the isobars represent troughs and fronts - ie lots of precipitation. The above chart needs to be viewed along with T850 chart which is the temperature at around 4000ft to tell if it's snowy or just wet. Also look where the air is coming from, if it's continent rather than Atlantic then again likely to be colder.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@scottishandy, so (if I understand correctly), the colour scale is roughly proportional to temperature (purple / blue being coldest).
Is there an approximate colour which usually equates to snow at sea level?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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It's a bit more complicated. You really need to look at the T850 chart as well to give an idea of temperatures as you can have low heights and warm winds if the source is a long south westerly for example. Think of the low heights as sucking energy out of the ocean and if temps are low enough it will snow. Generally need T850 to be - 6 or less for snow at sea level but then lots of other factors to work in as well. Netweather.TV has tons of useful guides on this kind of thing as well as all the charts. You can waste many hours of your life trying to learn it all. It's good fun though!
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Temperatures in parts of the Alps 16C below the average for the time of the year.
Brunnenkogel (admittedly at 3400m in the Ötztal Alps) hit -32C overnight.
Lower down Salzburg airport dropped below -12C.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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"06 GFS predicting a snowy weekend for the UK. "
assume the BBC are not using that same run, their forecast last night had temps back to 10/11 degrees for south east at the weekend
?????
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Heading out to Les Arcs for the week of the 11th March. Looking for signs that the milder weather of next week may come to an end before we arrive. Looking at the different models am I right that ECM takes things a little cooler towards the end of its run?
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@pmercer, a little, but to be honest it’s too soon to really tell.
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all the long range forecasts seem to be suggesting a snowy week in the 3v starting at the weekend. Do the experts agree? Arriving 11th March. Long range forecasts suggest an interesting transfer day.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@hd, can’t answer your question but I can report it has been a glorious day in Zermatt. Clear blue skies, no wind (at least on the Rothorn side where we were skiing) but cold. It was - 15 at the Sunnega base station at 10.00 am. Hoping the Zermatt forecast is right for tomorrow - more sunshine.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Welshcakes, how much has the recent (limited) snowfall improved the conditions? Is off-piste now soft or still hardpack icy sh*t?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@hd, I’ll post in the Zermatt thread but weather conditions have been pretty good and the pistes are in good condition. Monday would have been hard for a weather forecaster. There was moderate snow below about 2500 metres and sunshine above. You could say the forecasts were right or wrong depending on where you were skiing and which forecast you had looked at.
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@nozawaonsen I know is a long shot , but is this warm weather forecast due to continue the week after the next?
In particular looking Swiss alps..
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You know it makes sense.
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| toro wrote: |
@nozawaonsen I know is a long shot , but is this warm weather forecast due to continue the week after the next?
In particular looking Swiss alps.. |
Yes, winter is over, spring is here...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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These haven't changed. GFS is massively sticking its neck out predicting heavy snow starting tonight. Zermatt website and bergfex/wepowder/yr are forecasting a dribble at best. What is WRF saying? I am getting close to decision making time for venue for the weekend - needs to be a Swiss resort.
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Poster: A snowHead
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WRF over next few days.
As for temperatures, they are going to rise from the extreme cold at present, but only to be a little above what you expect for early March in the Alps. GFS 00z has them cooling again by 08 March.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@nozawaonsen, great thanks. Looks like a decent accumulation then for Valais, particularly towards the Swiss/Italian border. GFS/WRF vs ECMWF...let battle commence!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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looks like 3V and Serre chevalier are both going to do well in next fews -arrive in 3v 11th March and Serre Chevalier 1st April 
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
WRF over next few days.
As for temperatures, they are going to rise from the extreme cold at present, but only to be a little above what you expect for early March in the Alps. GFS 00z has them cooling again by 08 March. |
Apologies but I must be extremely bad at geography. Where is that report centered over?
what would you predict for Tirol region, solden/stubaital valley/mayrhofen?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@craftybob, map is centred over the Alps. It's difficult to tell because the country borders look very similar to the region borders, and there isn't any topography shading.
The banana shape of Lake Geneva is fairly easy to pick out (near the left, about half way up), as is the sea on either side of Italy (which pokes down off the bottom of the map about halfway across). Austria is roughly in the middle, I think.
So the snowfall is focussed on the west and south-west Italian Alps, and eastern side of the southern French Alps (I think). Not so much (a few inches) for your part of Austria, and most of it comes right at the end of the animation (so it's less certain).
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| denfinella wrote: |
@craftybob, map is centred over the Alps. It's difficult to tell because the country borders look very similar to the region borders, and there isn't any topography shading.
The banana shape of Lake Geneva is fairly easy to pick out (near the left, about half way up), as is the sea on either side of Italy (which pokes down off the bottom of the map about halfway across). Austria is roughly in the middle, I think.
So the snowfall is focussed on the west and south-west Italian Alps, and eastern side of the southern French Alps (I think). Not so much (a few inches) for your part of Austria, and most of it comes right at the end of the animation (so it's less certain). |
Ah HA! Cool! Thanks
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Weird here, 50cm in the garden, nothing on the roofs, been windy and very cold for 24hrs and no snowflakes, just particles swirling, no cohesion, probably dangerous.......
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Though you might not believe it...
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Snowy in Geneva this morning. |
Apparently the airport is shut
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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No surprise! Pretty heavy snow.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Lovely forecast coming together for St Anton next week in advance of our arrival on March 11th.
Mind you not as good as La Grave looks for the SH spring break, loadza snow...... I'm a bit envious, as they say:' we should have gone to specsavers'.... (
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| horgand wrote: |
| Lovely forecast coming together for St Anton next week in advance of our arrival on March 11th. |
are you sure? To me it looks like a bland week of milky sun with the odd dusting of "dandruff" and seasonably mild temperatures...
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You know it makes sense.
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| red 27 wrote: |
| horgand wrote: |
| Lovely forecast coming together for St Anton next week in advance of our arrival on March 11th. |
are you sure? To me it looks like a bland week of milky sun with the odd dusting of "dandruff" and seasonably mild temperatures... |
Snow forecast has some snow due on
Today, tomorrow, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. With a 1/2 metre due the day before we arrive.
If that's a` bland week of milky sunshine with the odd dusting of dandruff `, I'd take that every time. Break out the head & shoulders!!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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For a change, I couldn't give a monkey's chuff about the weather in the mountains. Right now I'm more concerned that I might not be able to fly from Bristol to GVA tomorrow 
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Poster: A snowHead
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@horgand,
Ah, good old snowforecast.
Looks more like unseasonably warm weather with heavy rain around the 11th.
Too far away to be accurate though. It might turn out alright 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@horgand, lesson learned I hope...
This thread is the place to come for realistic assessments of the future weather possibilities - Give those clickbait sites a miss
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| red 27 wrote: |
@horgand, lesson learned I hope...
This thread is the place to come for realistic assessments of the future weather possibilities - Give those clickbait sites a miss |
Absolutely, Snowforecast and their ilk are pants compared to this thread. Even the ECM-based Bergfex is subject to big swings in their forecast just five days out.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Some terrific powder skiing round Verbier last few days. Tomorrow should be special as the sun arrives.
The period round 11/12 March is interesting.
As this low pressure system arrives it will be drawing up warm up and will be followed by cold air. This could mean rain lower down particularly in the western Alps and Pyrenees, but is likely to be cooling by the time it reaches further east.
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@nozawaonsen, that’s another cold hit for the Uk if it comes off???
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Some terrific powder skiing round Verbier last few days. Tomorrow should be special as the sun arrives......... |
That is so wrong, tomorrow is when it can be at it's most dangerous as people feel safe with the better viz, will probably still be 4/5, and with a bit of sun people will feel safe.
We're still questioning as where best to go, selecting routes etc and thinking maybe another couple of days for snow pack to settle.
For instance down this part of the world
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/bulletin-avalanches/thabor/OPP13
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@Weathercam, er I was talking about the weather being sunny tomorrow in Verbier after it has been snowy for a few days. Sounds pretty right to me.
I’m assuming you are talking about avalanche risk. I agree that the sun and better visibility may cause people to expose themselves to off piste risks.
But that doesn’t really change my view that the weather should be rather special.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Sorry I think you’re back tracking.
Such a fundamental error to go big on the first sunny day after storm activity.
You might know the weather but you don’t know the mountains'
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@Weathercam, ???
This is a weather thread.
Goodness knows why you are throwing round insults at this time of night on the internet, but I suspect you may have had a sherbet too many.
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