 Poster: A snowHead
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Looks good around Salzburg this morning as the sun breaks through on the fresh snow.
The broad signal for a pattern shift as we go into January continues, but any substantial snowfall remains outside of the reliable forecasting range and so must continue to be treated with caution.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Despite a lot of cross model agreement this time yesterday (ECM, GFSx2, UKMO) for 3-5 Jan it looks like high pressure sneaks back in over France and pushes the storms east, again. However it's really looks temporary as the 8-10day trend is still moving the blocking high up towards Greenland.
Minor set back. Winter now scheduled to start Jan 7th.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@langball, did try to warn you about 03 Jan...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Yes indeed, however like all good gamblers, my opinions are strong, but weakly held.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Reminds me of the Danny Baker quote
"Sometimes right. Sometimes wrong. Always certain"
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
Looks good around Salzburg this morning as the sun breaks through on the fresh snow.
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It most certainly does!
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| Tatman's Tours wrote: |
| Quote: |
Looks good around Salzburg this morning as the sun breaks through on the fresh snow.
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It most certainly does! |
As long as it doesn't melt before the 3rd!!!
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| langball wrote: |
Despite a lot of cross model agreement this time yesterday (ECM, GFSx2, UKMO) for 3-5 Jan it looks like high pressure sneaks back in over France and pushes the storms east, again. However it's really looks temporary as the 8-10day trend is still moving the blocking high up towards Greenland.
Minor set back. Winter now scheduled to start Jan 7th. |
yes, the decent snowfall forecast for Ischgl next Weds is now an inch... 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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silly question... never been in January before, anywhere, so expecting it to be colder. But is week 2 in January generally a bit quieter than Xmas/NY? (Looking at cams in Ischgl - looking a little busy!)
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Very quiet, once new year holiday is over and kids are back to school, Jan is very quiet. Feb then picks up as the various countries have their staggered half term / ski weeks / fortnights.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| t44tomo wrote: |
| Very quiet, once new year holiday is over and kids are back to school, Jan is very quiet. Feb then picks up as the various countries have their staggered half term / ski weeks / fortnights. |
Excellent thanks; congratulating myself on my choice, especially as I chose as snowsure as I could in Austria, save perhaps Solden, Obergurgl or Obertauern (ok - Hintertux, Kaprun etc..but they are bus trips and I like 100 metres max to the lifts....) Skiing still looking good on the cams and resort 80% open from what I can see...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@buchanan101, @bhs1922, and others, you cannot forecast snow seven days in advance with any degree of confidence.
Despite what various snake oil merchants might suggest it just is not possible.
Websites which have forecasts stretching out beyond five days do so simply by extrapolating data, normally from the operational GFS run. Just because it can be done doesn't mean you should pay it much attention (much like the teenager doing wheelies on his bicycle in a traffic jam).
Looking at more complex models may (may) allow you to get a feel for general trends and if a particularly strong weather system is coming through may be visible a bit further out. But it is more useful to see model output seven days and beyond as options rather than forecasts. If it doesn't build support it shouldn't build confidence.
More generally 06z continues to signal a pattern shift as we move into January.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@buchanan101, @bhs1922, and others, you cannot forecast snow seven days in advance with any degree of confidence.
Despite what various snake oil merchants might suggest it just is not possible.
Websites which have forecasts stretching out beyond five days do so simply by extrapolating data, normally from the operational GFS run. Just because it can be done doesn't mean you should pay it much attention (much like the teenager doing wheelies on his bicycle in a traffic jam).
Looking at more complex models may (may) allow you to get a feel for general trends and if a particularly strong weather system is coming through may be visible a bit further out. But it is more useful to see model output seven days and beyond as options rather than forecasts. If it doesn't build support it shouldn't build confidence.
More generally 06z continues to signal a pattern shift as we move into January. |
Thanks - I know (should know) most of that... the sites seem to still be in agreement that something is happening mid week next week; that hasn't changed for 3 days now. The levels fluctuate but I assume that is due to forecast changes in the path of the front (as the changes in snow forecast are huge 2cm v 60cm). Seems to be that the high is forecast to last a bit longer/be a bit bigger/be a bit further east than originally thought?
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You know it makes sense.
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@buchanan101, it's the "originally thought" part that is the problem. It has always been unclear how far east the high pressure would sit and therefore how much snow would push down. This has gone up and down over several days. I don't think there has been a sustained period of ensemble support that would give cause for confidence. And as it has come closer into the reliable range it has lost support rather than gained it. Even at this stage that could change, but it does not look likely at present. People in general do have a tendency to pick their preferred outcome from charts too far out and assume that this has somehow been forecast rather than it being one of a range of options. They then tend to ignore other contrary information as it comes in. A sort of cognitive bias.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @buchanan101, it's the "originally thought" part that is the problem. It has always been unclear how far east the high pressure would sit and therefore how much snow would push down. This has gone up and down over several days. I don't think there has been a sustained period of ensemble support that would give cause for confidence. And as it has come closer into the reliable range it has lost support rather than gained it. Even at this stage that could change, but it does not look likely at present. People in general do have a tendency to pick their preferred outcome from charts too far out and assume that this has somehow been forecast rather than it being one of a range of options. They then tend to ignore other contrary information as it comes in. A sort of cognitive bias. |
I know it's very very likely to change, but of course I'd rather have the half a metre of snow dumped just before I arrive... who wouldn't 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Completely agree with Noza - apparently 'unlucky' people do the same with luck i.e they only remember the bad luck, forget the good luck they've had, and consequently perceive themselves to be unlucky!
I'm in Austria on the 3rd - and as much as I love looking, and all the conversations and debates, I won't really start to take anything seriously until we get to about Sunday.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The UK Met Office has backed off its recent hinting at high pressure out in the mid-Atlantic with an accompanying extended northerly, and now sees it predominantly locked in situ over the UK during January for rather more settled conditions (cold by night under inversion, and occasional bits and pieces of weather rolling over the NW).
| Quote: |
UK Outlook for Thursday 12 Jan 2017 to Thursday 26 Jan 2017:
Signals suggest that the most likely scenario for this period is high pressure being dominant across most of the UK. Leading to increasing dry and quiet spells, and a greater likelihood of cold weather with frost and fog by night. However, there may be a few spells of unsettled weather, most likely in north-western parts. In general, temperatures are likely to be cold for the time of year in those settled periods. However, it may turn milder at times in association with any periods of more unsettled weather in the northwest.
Updated at: 1205 on Wed 28 Dec 2016 |
It'll be interesting if there are any UK Met Office subtle changes of wording today. Neither of the latest operational runs from ECM or GFS have anything of a significant pressure shift west either, but offer up a much more exciting possibility, especially for the UK.
ECM op @ 10 days ...
GFS op @ 10 days ...
This GFS run then evolves to this, a rather sensational east/nor'easterly fetch which would provide a snowfest for the UK (and much of mainland central Europe) ...
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Thu 29-12-16 12:24; edited 1 time in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
buchanan101, @bhs1922, and others, you cannot forecast snow seven days in advance with any degree of confidence.
Despite what various snake oil merchants might suggest it just is not possible.
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This is only the weather outlook thread if Nozza is doing the predictions, else it's just a load of guesswork.
Should it not be called the weather in the next 3-4 days 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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It is quite funny! From 1cm next Weds Bergfex (forecast earlier this morning) has just flopped back to 35cm! (Ischgl). This eve it will be back to 1cm or so... (I'm forecasting a forecast)
I'm feeling lucky...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
It is quite funny! From 1cm next Weds Bergfex (forecast earlier this morning) has just flopped back to 35cm! (Ischgl). This eve it will be back to 1cm or so... (I'm forecasting a forecast)
I'm feeling lucky... |
ha - 35cm was town - 60cm is "forecast" - note inverted commas Nozza - for the mountain!
I'm feeling very lucky...
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| Tatman's Tours wrote: |
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Winter in the Alps is arriving later and later as the years roll by, due to global warming.
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...and yet we had heavy snow in mid-November and some resorts opened for the last two weekends of November, even though their official opening date was the beginning of December. Also temperatures were cold enough through December to allow plenty of snow-making, so here we had 150km of good piste skiing available during the December pre-Christmas period. Here in Saalbach it started snowing yesterday afternoon and continued throughout the night. Not convinced that global warming is having such a deleterious effect as painted. Lack of precipitation at the right time is however a problem - some bad (i.e. good) weather during early December (i.e. before we arrive) would certainly be appreciated next year. |
In the past, Alpine snow at most altitudes in Oct to Dec would stick around. Now, it usually melts.
Snowfall in the Alps is shrinking and temperatures are rising.
Glaciers are melting.
Seasons are shortening.
The trend is clear.
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@buchanan101, you keep talking cms despite many folk saying such a forecast is worthless!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Snow is coming to the Alps in the second week of January.
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He's Back!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @buchanan101, you keep talking cms despite many folk saying such a forecast is worthless!! |
I'm merely illustrating that the forecast is flip flopping between nothing much and lots. OK - I won't talk cm - just "almost nothing" and "loads". Makes no difference - I'm illustrating the uncertainty - but the forecast "event" hasn't changed as yet; it's been 4th Jan for 3 days now
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| bhs1922 wrote: |
| Can anybody shed any light on where the snow for the western alps on 3/1-5/1 has gone? |
Yes. It was a forecast, and so it was never there in the first place. It hasn't gone anywhere.
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| James the Last wrote: |
| bhs1922 wrote: |
| Can anybody shed any light on where the snow for the western alps on 3/1-5/1 has gone? |
Yes. It was a forecast, and so it was never there in the first place. It hasn't gone anywhere. |
Further east at the moment; sometimes "forecast" to dump on the Arlberg, sometimes further east again. Maybe sometimes nowhere at all....
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| langball wrote: |
| just read this now.....another gambler |
STAY STOKED! 
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Poster: A snowHead
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@letsgetpiste, am breaking out the wax, and a nice Cote du Rhone, what can possibly go wrong...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Lots of "wills" in there!
Even I know they are only forecasts...
7th will be fun IF it IS a dump and IF my flight doesn't get diverted from Innsbruck (how often does that happen)?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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One of those resorts with loads of new snow was labelled "Loser". Didn't look like it to me 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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"Jetstream - Full Throttle"  Now there's a movie title in there somewhere...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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wow... decision to go later in season looks a good one
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| In the past, Alpine snow at most altitudes in Oct to Dec would stick around. Now, it usually melts. |
What rot! You're suggesting maybe a 10 degree rise in temperatures. Since when? 10,000 years ago and the last Ice Age?
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@Alex A, I have one month to get a decent storm.
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03 Jan looks pretty weak on 12z GFS. 06/07 Jan looking a bit more substantial for snowfall across northern Alps.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Snow is coming to the Alps in the second week of January. |
That's a guess, no accuracy at all, any truth in this is a coincedence
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FAQ
