 Poster: A snowHead
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| philmes wrote: |
Good news: very, very, very cold. Pretty wet in the Eastern Alps towards the end of the run.
Bad news: utterly bone dry in the French alps. |
Seems to be the 'norm for this season so far, hoping spring has a sting in it's tale with some decent and frequent April showers....
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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and here's hoping spring comes early and starts mid march!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Ensembles beginning to show a lot more support for the cold solution. There's support for a bit of precipitation in the French alps from day 10 onwards (though right now there's not much support for anything significant), getting better the further south and east you go.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Do the weather experts on here pay any attention to the www.meteo.fr (Meteo France) website? Looking at it over the past week precipitation has been forecast over much of France and even stretching into the Western side of the Rhone Alps but not quite as far as Les Arcs etc. This ties in with reports yesterday of heavy cloud but no snow in Les Arcs. So the snow has not been that far away and I hear that parts of Val D'Isere had decent snowfall a couple of days ago. Seems to me that the lows with precipitation from the West are fizzling out just before reaching the main resorts of the French Alps which is a blow for those of us travelling out this weekend. Any prospect of any of the fronts moving across from the West actually making it over the next week or so? I don't think my old knees and dodgy technique can stand a week of hard pack and ice and I am certainly not looking forward to trying to guide the kids safely around the mountains !
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| OldHacker wrote: |
| Do the weather experts on here pay any attention to the www.meteo.fr (Meteo France) website? |
It is known as Meteo Chance by the French. Go figure.
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I look at meteo France fairly consistently and have found the "completely computer-generated and untouched by human hand" snow-forecast to be more accurate, over the piece.
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old knees and dodgy technique
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I have old knees but my technique is not too bad on a good day - I have found it pretty essential to focus on getting it right; can't afford to be careless on this snow. Best thing for dodgy technique is some lessons, OldHacker; it's never too late. It's been almost a year since I had any - might put that right over the next few days.
PS, the dodgier the knees, the more important the technique.... it's OK for fit young things to hoon around any old how.
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OldHacker, I reckon Meteo France is the most accurate "summary" type site, certainly in my experience here in the Tarentaise. Their more detailed mountain forecast is very good.
As with any forecast though, there's not much point paying any attention to anything more than 3 or so days ahead.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| OldHacker wrote: |
| This ties in with reports yesterday of heavy cloud but no snow in Les Arcs. |
Are those reports from this week? I can assure you that there has not been any heavy cloud in Les Arcs this week. I little bit of high wispy cloud from time to time, but nothing to speak of. Mostly blue sky and calm conditions. Very pleasant.
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I'd vote for Chamonix meteo over meteo France.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Not quite as startling a set of GFS ensembles at 12z... though that's because 06z was so strong...
Having said that the control goes even deeper into cold...
So it does increasingly look like something colder, possibly a lot colder, could be over the horizon- in about ten days- after a warmer spell this weekend...
But we need a bit more time (2 or 3 days at least) to get any sense of how it might play out... ECM will be interesting to see if it sticks to the story this evening... 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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nozawaonsen, yes that's several ECM's over the last few days that have an easterly evolution although this one is pretty special. The other cold scenario (which is of less interest to the Alps) that keeps cropping up in some of the ensemble pack is the broad, elongated high pressure to moving generally westwards to the immediate north of the UK. Like a kind of displaced Scandi HP that would bring UK-wide blizzards on a NE'ly initially and then embed 'stagnant' cold air into our neck of the woods rather like in mid December.
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You know it makes sense.
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closes eyes, bows head, and thinks
i go on the 13th
bring on the snow
bring on the snow
to all those gsf, ecm and other charts experts please keep the news going in this direction.
it will be what it will be and i accept that happily as i'd rather be on a bad snow mountain than none at all but thinking cold and precipitous thoughts......
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| ansta1 wrote: |
| precipitous thoughts...... |
Sounds naughty but nice 
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Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Could all change of course and confidence in this outcome is still low at this stage... |
Sneaky caviat Noz!
Mind you really hope things improve all over. From experience not fun skiing amongst grazing ponies!
Still too many sleeps for me to get hopeful
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Zermatt in 2 sleeps. Thank god I picked high as usual. Still, great pistes, apparently, lots of sun and new oakleys. Apparently the beer is still there, & the mountain restaurants are still there. Concentrate on a nice bit of carving, and fabulous views. Am now at the stage of hoping for snow the weekend of the 12th for all those following later. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Jaybus....Heading to Soll this Saturday, better pack the Sun Screen and Speedos.....Eh, ok, maybe not Speedos 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Is it just me or are these posts referring to "xx sleeps..." anything other than pathetic and infantile?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| IanTr wrote: |
| Is it just me or are these posts referring to "xx sleeps..." anything other than pathetic and infantile? |
IanTr, yes and your point?
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| IanTr wrote: |
| Is it just me or are these posts referring to "xx sleeps..." anything other than pathetic and infantile? |
Personally I don't, but fully understand the excitement....What's it to you anyway??
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IanTr, the anticipation is all part of the fun - why would you spend all that dosh for just 7 days pleasure!
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| IanTr wrote: |
| Is it just me or are these posts referring to "xx sleeps..." anything other than pathetic and infantile? |
where does the expression come from? is it from bbc3 or somewhere?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Fingers X ...fingers X
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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The GFS and ECM 0Z output pretty disappointing. The GFS operational shows warm high pressure over central Europe throughout, and the ensembles have shifted dramatically towards the same solution. No cold and no snow on offer.
The ECM is a bit better, but a high pressure ridge persists over France and the UK. Largely dry here as well I think.
This is obviously a far more negative post than the one immediately above, but the teleconnections support a flat zonal outlook.
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New snow in Scotland over night. They are digging out the access road as we speak up at cairngorm. Let's hope that it continues like this, should be good up here next week!
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You know it makes sense.
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NAO is still looking pretty positive certainly (so zonal). Although there still seem to be options for it to go negative mid month.
Would agree that the GFS operational is rather unappealing. Although I think the ensemble mean has sat around seasonal average for the Alps in FI for about the last four or five runs (including this morning's 00z) without much shift.
Not much in the way of snow in this morning's runs. Though given the range I would probably prefer to get the cold in place and see what develops (certainly preferable to the extended dry and mild the operational is pushing).
It would be nice to see something like ECM 12z again today ( ). If anything is to come of the second half of February I would expect a fair bit of back and forth in the models. So not ideal this morning, but still some strong voices for cold and I'll pocket those for now...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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IanTr, you're a cheerful fella aren't you? Bet you are a bundle of laughs down the pub.. 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Although I think the ensemble mean has sat around seasonal average for the Alps in FI for about the last four or five runs (including this morning's 00z) without much shift. |
Agreed. However there was a roughly 50/50 split in the ensembles yesterday for a cold incursion from the east. There's not nearly as much ensemble support this morning.
| Quote: |
| Though given the range I would probably prefer to get the cold in place and see what develops (certainly preferable to the extended dry and mild the operational is pushing). |
Indeed. At least when it's cold the artificial snow operations can run at full tilt. I do wonder if we're going to see resorts running out of water reserves at this rate...
| Quote: |
| So not ideal this morning, but still some strong voices for cold and I'll pocket those for now... |
Yep, there's still hope.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Epic. More like that please
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen, philmes,
Come on you two - stop having your little "we know what this means" winking session ...... 
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Mattmulkeen, as moffatross implies it would be one option (and given it was the operational was the one which was visible as 06z came out). It's was FI in any case so unless you are seeing consistent support for the same pattern over several runs I would not take any scenario too seriously (trends are more likely to be of interest).
In fairness 06z doesn't really take us much further. Still some cold and very cold ensembles, but quite a few mild ones too. Mean sticks round seasonal average as it has done for a while. Not really strong support for cold in second half of February, but it certainly doesn't ditch the idea.
It will be interesting to see if the 00z runs provide a clearer signal this evening.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Mattmulkeen, in other words, nobody really knows, but there some hints that the high is breaking down, but the next run could bring it back just as strong...
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The 06z ensembles aren't great. Even less support for real cold, whilst the average amount of precipitation forecast continues to decline.
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