 Poster: A snowHead
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And they probably tell a secondary story of snow quality - where there is very little snow lower down its because freezing temp is high and potential for the snow that fell up high to be negatively impacted by warmer temps is also higher
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Those are great charts. A decent amount of snow/rain on Thursday/Friday and we might hit simultaneous record high and low snow levels.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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30cm of blower pow please
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Today in the Alps was tropical.
Slush at 3000m.
Lower trails are browner than Greta's backyard.
Prepare for yet more rain on lower Alpine trails next week.
Snow above 1500-2000m.
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The question is how long resorts can survive until they have to close this season early.
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Upper slopes in general are good and with snowy weather forecast and Easter early this year most resorts will be OK.Cerainly here in the Jungfrau
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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The biggest dump of the season is about to roll in, especially below 1800m. And the outlook into March really doesn’t get any better than what is currently forecast. Strat pv will not recover, northern blocking will finally get a chance to establish for more than a few days. Stock up on wood and wax.
No guarantees beyond a few weeks but I expect many low resorts will get enough snow now to last into April.
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@polo, that's the most excited I've been about a snowheads post in a long time
No pressure
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I know it's a bit far out still, but any thoughts on the likelihood of snow / snow conditions between the 2nd-9th March vs 9th-16th March (in the general 3 valleys sort of area), need to sort time off and need to choose between them (sadly both is not an option!). Which would you choose based on the current models? Thanks!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I would 100% go 9-16 based purely on the fact the French kids are all back at school the week before will be way more crowded
Snow and cold is coming so conditions hopefully good either week
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GFS maps on wetterzentrale look interesting, an area from the Tarentaise to the Bernese Oberland receiving up to 1.5m of new snow by Sunday the 3rd.
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You know it makes sense.
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Keep an eye on the forecast temperatures for this next storm late next week, which have been trending upwards a little over the last few runs.
Currently it doesn't look like being a massive issue for most places, but some of the lowest pistes (thinking places like Morzine, Megeve, also some low Swiss / Italian resorts) could see a mix of rain / snow low down.
Currently that would only affect a minority of pistes in a minority of ski areas so overall it's a great outlook. And in the longer term cooler temps should allow snow cannons to fill in any gaps (if they still bother at this time of year). But hopefully no further movement upwards in temps.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| denfinella wrote: |
Keep an eye on the forecast temperatures for this next storm late next week, which have been trending upwards a little over the last few runs.
Currently it doesn't look like being a massive issue for most places, but some of the lowest pistes (thinking places like Morzine, Megeve, also some low Swiss / Italian resorts) could see a mix of rain / snow low down.
Currently that would only affect a minority of pistes in a minority of ski areas so overall it's a great outlook. And in the longer term cooler temps should allow snow cannons to fill in any gaps (if they still bother at this time of year). But hopefully no further movement upwards in temps. |
@Polo mentioned 1,800m altitude. Presumably the “below” was meant to be above?
Meteoblue forecast rain, for example at Chatel, Morzine, Les Gets and Megeve.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Lads, let's everyone calm down.
@polo said there will be snow and he does not  around when it comes to predictition. He can be wrong but it's only marginally wrong then anything else.
Those of us that ski, must remain positive but if all else fails we must be positive in the weather.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Looks like snow right down into the valleys on Friday and staying cold on Saturday
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| TJ1 wrote: |
| I know it's a bit far out still, but any thoughts on the likelihood of snow / snow conditions between the 2nd-9th March vs 9th-16th March (in the general 3 valleys sort of area), need to sort time off and need to choose between them (sadly both is not an option!). Which would you choose based on the current models? Thanks! |
What JDgoesskiing says. 2nd - 9th is the last week of the holidays, avoid if you have the option.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Today in the Alps was tropical.
Slush at 3000m.
Lower trails are browner than Greta's backyard.
Prepare for yet more rain on lower Alpine trails next week.
Snow above 1500-2000m. |
WTF are you talking about? We were in Val Thorens yesterday - anything (despite aspect / orientation / steepness) above 2,300 metres was superb.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Theobane, since this big storm is 5+ days away, surely it's fine to look at a range of possible outcomes?
There is a tendency for some people to worship the most optimistic forecast they see, and then they are invariably disappointed when then reality ends up being something more moderate. That is absolutely not a dig at any particular poster by the way.
There is not so much difference between how different posters are interpreting the forecasts / models (except for @Whitegold's last prediction, which is obviously to wind us all up).
@Snow&skifan, yes, exactly. The milder non-outlier forecast runs are putting 850hPa temps at 3°C for the bulk of the precipitation, while the colder ones maybe around 1°C. (Big generalisation - I'm talking about the whole Alps here - not just the NW).
For that spread in likely temperatures, pistes above 1500m have a margin of safety, which is good news for the majority of major ski areas. 1000m, more rain than snow, hence I singled out Morzine and Megève. The altitudes that are trickier to forecast are in between.
After this big storm it should be colder, and the northern Alps should at least get some more snow to lower levels, making everything look nice and wintry.
But also I wanted to point out the trend over the last couple of days. Which has been inching towards a slightly milder storm. You don't really want that trend to continue, because it might shift the "useful dump" altitude from, say, 1200m (great for nearly everywhere) to 1500m (starts being a headache for lower areas).
That's not the same as saying it'll definitely happen. Just good to be aware of a range of possible outcomes.
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@franga, and zero slush all morning on north facing shaded slopes down to 1300m yesterday, but Whitegold has been predicting rain for the last few weeks, so he’s not exactly on a hot streak at the moment  . Sharpen up mate.
I came back on here Feb 11th, amongst the despair of the heatwave and several voices proclaiming the end was near. It’s a funny mixture of writing off the weather 2-3 weeks out and those that don’t believe you can predict anything beyond a few days. Both of these can’t be right…..so I try bridge the divide, in that drastic changes can happen beyond 5-7days, and they can also be reasonably well forecast, sometimes up to 10-12 days. To emphasize the point, and with nothing to lose, I’ve backed off on using caveats…..people want definitive forecasts and detail.
Worst case scenario, man on the internet got it wrong.
So what has been forecast so far over a week out……850’s will drop below zero from 23rd on, the jet stream is going to flip (top marks GFS), the core low drifts a little north, the block to the east is resilient, the initial low is too far west, the FL will start above 2000.
We can now add it will be the biggest dump of the season below 1800. Clearly there have been several huge events already above 2000, and the bar is pretty low below 1500. Can’t remember getting more than 10cm here in the NW, so even 11cm at 1300m will be an easy win. It will be much more than 11 though. Am thinking 30-40 tbh.
The numbers on the auto apps are not reliable imv. All I’m looking at are the pressure charts. This is by far the best synoptic pattern we have faced this season. No south Atlantic lows, no med highs…..the only 2 areas of minor concern are that eastern and southern alps may have higher snowlines overall, as lows heading to the med will send warmer air in their direction. The issue for the western alps is that secondary lows may come in even further west, leading to brief spikes in FL. But it’s all about how you finish…..10mm of rain followed 20cm snow isn’t a problem.
Look at the mean temps on the ensemble charts, between 0 and -5c all the way to early march. Sure there will be movement there as the pattern becomes clearer beyond next weekend….but right now, nothing to worry about.
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| Quote: |
The biggest dump of the season is about to roll in, especially below 1800m. And the outlook into March really doesn’t get any better than what is currently forecast. Strat pv will not recover, northern blocking will finally get a chance to establish for more than a few days. Stock up on wood and wax.
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@polo, I'm still waiting for something to beat the dump of "pretty good" snow we got back in the end of November. You were right, that's been arguably the best day of the season so far!!!
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@coldrainsnow, oh yeah good memory, but I call that pre-season.
5 more sleeps
And ECM goes all nord stau on Monday ……go on go on go on
Ideally it will shift a bit further east
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Thanks @polo. I actually understood most of that. Hope the cold extends into early March. Headed to Wengen on March 2nd, and got March 16th free. If it continues, it’ll be Ski Jewel or Zillertal for that second week.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I appreciate that most folks are concentrating on the optimistic outlook from Friday onwards, and there has been little significant change in my view for the past few days regarding the evolution. What is surprising me is the amount of snow that the models are generating on Monday and Tuesday. Most models seem to suggest between 5 and 30 cm over the Northern Alps which seems a lot of precipitation from what appears to be a fairly minor upper trough moving southeast and weakening. I hope it's right, but wouldn't be surprised to see actual amounts considerably lower. Also, any snow looks likely to be above 1300m, and freezing levels will rise again for a couple of days before the fun begins later in the week.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Onelasttime1!, Monday and Tuesday 19/2 and 20/2?
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| coldrainsnow wrote: |
| @Onelasttime1!, Monday and Tuesday 19/2 and 20/2? |
The hoped for snow event is from Friday, so includes the following Monday and Tuesday.
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You know it makes sense.
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@Snow&skifan, no I am 100% sure, no caveats, Onelasttime is talking about tomorrow. It's a completely different picture to next monday 26th.
Any snow for the west has all but disappeared (19-20th) as the weak trough has drifted east, with high pressure still over france. I would expect 5-10cm in parts of swiss/austria, certainly scope for more in lucky locations, but not widespread
He says as much in the last line......"later in the week"
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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@polo, which part of the alps do you think will benefit most from this upcoming snow event? Trying to decide where to go w/c 9th March and would leave it to the last minute but availability is scarce and prices are rising (with the TOs) daily. Considering Les Arcs, La Thuile or Saalbach…
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Snow&skifan, if I am wrong, you'll never hear from me again 
@surferrosa, sorry can't see that far, nor make personal holiday recommendations....am just interpreting the patterns, which are always evolving beyond 5 days. All 3 should be fine, but with a gun to my head I'd say the west is a safer bet.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Madesimo and St Moritz are at the epicentre of the GFS new snow map.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@polo, haha, that’s all the guidance I need, thank you!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
| coldrainsnow wrote: |
| @Onelasttime1!, Monday and Tuesday 19/2 and 20/2? |
The hoped for snow event is from Friday, so includes the following Monday and Tuesday. |
I should have made it a bit clearer that I was referring to Mon 19th and Tuesday 20th.
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[quote="polo"]@Snow&skifan, if I am wrong, you'll never hear from me again
I think that is a bit extreme. One doesn't care whether you are wrong or right but one does care to have experts on here providing their own thought and interpreting the spaghetti of all the models. Someone vastly more erudite than the "woe is us" brigade
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@countryman, much appreciated, confidence is higher than usual on this one.....and if it suddenly goes pear shaped, I'll spot it and do the post mortem before it ever happens. We all leave someday.... but I ain't done yet. Hopefully others are picking up on what I'm looking at....
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I’ve been lurking on this thread and trying to teach myself to read charts for ages… we’re heading to Morzine at Easter and I’m hoping to pack my ski boots rather than walking boots and I’ve become obsessed with forecasts as time creeps closer 
I thought things looked promising into early March @polo, thanks for the explainer! I know it’s waaay to early to hope for a decent Easter dump, but hopefully it’s a good sign nonetheless!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Onelasttime1!, Meteo France is now suggesting no precipitation for tonight / Monday morning in the Tarentaise .
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| @Onelasttime1!, Meteo France is now suggesting no precipitation for tonight / Monday morning in the Tarentaise . |
Models didn’t have much snow there to be fair. Still suggesting significant snow in northern Alps.
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FAQ
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