 Poster: A snowHead
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10-12 on our bird table see it live in the cam link below.
Can hear some blasting, going up the hill now first lifts after getting van out !
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Grenoble area: 5cm > 1500 meters yesterday morning (27/1). Dusting today > 1600 meters. About 20cm at 2300 meters over the last 48 hours. Still very warm for January.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@davidof, yep that is very much like a @Whitegold trolling post.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Cold temperatures arriving again after this weekend’s warm up on 05 February according to 06z GFS.
The op run currently keeps temperatures pretty much below average out till at least mid month, though needs to be heavily caveated that since that’s all in FI I’d be pretty cautious about it.
As far as the EC32 forecast goes... well it also comes with a strong dose of salt warning.
In terms of fresh snowfall the 06z would bring more for both north and south of the Alps and also the Pyrenees. But of course, it’s too far out to take seriously at this point.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Heading to Grand Massif on 3rd Feb for a week, is it likley that I'm going to be limited to blasting around the pistes rather than any off-piste fun?
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| Prejudicial wrote: |
| Heading to Grand Massif on 3rd Feb for a week, is it likley that I'm going to be limited to blasting around the pistes rather than any off-piste fun? |
I think unlikely if you're staying for a full week. But you'll have a much better idea by this weekend.
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Loads of snow coming down in la Plagne and it’s not stopping anytime soon
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Prejudicial, the current snowfall is likely to do quite a bit of good to the off piste potential (depending how much actually falls and where it all gets blown to). This weekend could see rain to quite high levels particularly in the west. Then there is the potential for colder weather and snow the week you are in Grand Massif. With a guide you should certainly be able to find some fun.
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Down in this part of the world, a strong W'ly wind has kicked in and ripping the fresh snow that's fallen, plus temps in the valley are +4 now, though we did have a good morning.
This is on the piste, before we headed into the forest for tree skiing at it's best!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@nozawaonsen, @altaski8, Thanks very much 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Hats off, possibly quite literally, to Warth Schröken which has recorded a wind gust of 164.1kmh today.
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From the look of the webcams, decent snow is currently falling in the Monterosa area, and the forecast for wind was not bad at all there. All rather encouraging.
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You know it makes sense.
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Something around 40-50cm in Reberty. Wind closed the valley links but mid-stations were fine. More of the same tonight, so we’ll end up with quite an accumulation. A good day.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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off to Obertauern this Saturday. Currently heavy snow, forecast to warm up, then right down as per Noza's posts. Sounds like weather to me. My first ski trip with school, was green all over, we were taken up high into the mountains to learn to ski in Austria. No lifts, as it was away from pistes , but we were at the 'how to put the ski's on stage' 1971 it was. Green all over is nothing new. It was March I admit.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Heading out to Bormio on 12/2 for the English Alpine Champs. They haven't had any serious snow since mid-December. They were due some today but the forecast was only for around 3cm at the top. The temps at resort level have been in double digits on many days throughout January and forecast to be that again at the weekend. Hoping that the forecast cold and snow does materialise.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@davidof, the maps are broadly in line with the mid term forecasts that are floating around, probably not much of a surprise as they are probably based on the same models. They are not showing the somewhat cooler spell in early Feb that the GFS model is keen on though perhaps that is down to the animation being based on anomaly not absolute temperatures.
The forecast around here suggests crazy high temperatures over the weekend and on Monday, up to 16 degrees. That does happen when there is a föhn but no sign of that rather a storm from the west. Hopefully we wont see wind speeds like the ones @nozawaonsen, referred to above. Unusually for the winter months there has even been some thunder storms
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@nozawaonsen, if the first map is about right that would imply "nordstau" conditions for upper Bavaria / northern Austrian alps at least for a short while as the second suggests back to more high pressure weather for central Europe? More +NAO ?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@munich_irish, I think it’s possible your a little confused about NAO. But also by the reliability of 14 day icon charts and the skill of medium to long range forecasts, but I won’t hold it against you! 
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The current outlook suggests the NAO will dip negative, but it isn’t looking like diving deeply negative, nor for now going especially positive.
That’s against a very strongly positive NAO we have had for much (well all) of winter.
But is it the +NAO (which is just an index showing relative pressure over the North Atlantic) which has described the dry winter we have had much of the last month or so? Not really because a +NAO in previous years has also been accompanied with very heavy snowfall in the northern Alps. When the jet is much further south than it has been you can end up with much colder winters and heavy snowfall in the southern Alps (you’d tend to expect that to be accompanied by a -NAO). What has caused the real problem has been the persistent high pressure which has sat across much of Europe (not automatically a component of a +NAO). Not that high pressure is all bad of course. Klagenfurt has already broken it’s historical sunshine record for January which had stood since records began in 1884. Less good for fresh snow obviously. But not all bad for being in the Alps.
But back to the charts. The +294 one (which is far into FI), shows this pressure anomaly.
That’s actually showing low pressure not high pressure across the Alps. And it’s the low pressure near the Mediterranean which would drive fresh snow across the Pyrenees and southern Alps. However, that’s so far out into FI that I really wouldn’t take it that seriously.
As for any form of 14 or 16 day icon charts. Just don’t.
https://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2011/10/ten-day-icon-based-forecasts-are-bogus.html?m=1
EC32 and other MRFs or LRFs are all kind of interesting. But you have to take them with a fair punch of salt. I’ve seen EC32 do well. I’ve also seen it produce bust after bust after bust. And longer than that you really are into fairly speculative stuff. Could be right. Could be not. Just don’t take it too seriously (and only use it to troll with as long as you know the joke will be on you...)
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Here is SLF’s outlook.
For the full avalanche warning here’s the link
High avalanche danger will be encountered in some regions
https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#snowpack
” Observed weather on Tuesday, 28.01.2020
It was mostly very cloudy and snow fell over a wide area. In the afternoon the snowfall level dropped from 1400 m to low altitudes. In the afternoon there were some bright spells in southern Ticino and the Grisons southern valleys.
Fresh snow
The following amounts of snow fell in the period from Monday evening until Tuesday evening:
- Lower Valais in the extreme west and the north, Leuk, Lötschental: 30 to 50 cm
Western Jura, Vaud and Fribourg Alps, western Bernese Oberland, rest of Valais, Gotthard region: 15 to 30 cm
Other regions: 5 to 15 cm over a wide area, but only a few centimetres in Grisons
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m: between -6 °C in the north and -4 °C in the south
Wind
Strong to storm force from the west
Weather forecast through Wednesday, 29.01.2020
It will be very cloudy and snow will fall, in large quantities in some cases, even at low altitudes. It will be fairly sunny only in the far south.
Fresh snow
From Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday afternoon the following amounts of snow will fall:
Northern Alpine ridge, Vaud and Fribourg Alps, Valais, western Jura: 30 to 50 cm, but more in some localities in the extreme west of Lower Valais, northern Valais and the relevant regions of the eastern Bernese Oberland
Other parts of the northern flank of the Alps and of the Gotthard region and northern Grisons, and in northern Lower Engadine and the eastern Jura: 20 to 30 cm
Elsewhere: less than 20 cm, but remaining dry in Sotto Ceneri
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m: between -5 °C in the southwest and -7 °C in the northeast
Wind
Strong to storm force from the west to northwest, easing during the day
Outlook through Friday, 31.01.2020
Thursday
During the first half of the night the snowfall will cease in the east as well and the skies will clear everywhere. In the morning cloud will quickly build up again, and from the middle of the day precipitation will arrive from the west. In the north the snowfall level will rise to 2000 m.
As the precipitation ceases and the wind eases, the natural avalanche activity will decrease quickly on Wednesday night. For winter sport participants venturing off piste, however, the situation will remain critical over a wide area.
Friday
The precipitation will cease in the morning. During the day it will become increasingly sunny from the west.
As a consequence of rain, moist avalanches are to be expected during the night below approximately 2000 m, in particular in the north and west. The danger of dry avalanches will decrease a little.”
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Am I right in thinking that the forecast rain this weekend (I’m looking at the major NW Alps resorts) will consolidate the snowpack if it’s followed by colder temps next week? Which is good news for HT holidaymakers if all this is followed by some further snowfalls in early February ...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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From Weather to Ski:
After a brief respite in the weather early on Thursday, further but weaker weather fronts will arrive from the west later in the day. It will turn warmer though, with the rain/snow limit rising back up to 1500m or higher.
The weather will then remain mild but rather unsettled over the weekend with further bits and pieces of rain and snow here and there, heaviest in the north and west.
By next Tuesday we are then expecting a major outbreak of cold polar air to bring heavy snow to low altitudes across many parts of the Alps, especially in the north. Watch this space…
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@nozawaonsen, I agree that the longer term forecasts do not have form for being most reliable but they have been pretty spot on this winter season so far, could be luck or maybe the modeling is getting better. The charts that where posted fit in very much with the pattern of a mild winter season even if in themselves they are not that relevant.
The chart you posted for 4th/5th February (week away) shows low pressure over Ukraine / western Russia which brings colder air down across Germany into the eastern alps. It is exactly the sort of weather pattern that has been missing this season so far (in an ideal world the low pressure would be centred a bit further west but given the amount of high pressure systems we cant be too choosy). I know it is only one run and it might change but it does give some hope for decent snow for a couple of days. The follow on chart might be less certain but it does suggest back to the mild dry, high pressure weather we have seen so much of. Can always hope the modeling is wrong 
As to the NAO thing, my understanding is that it is based on the pressure differential between the typical Azores high and Iceland low. In the second chart there is a fairly deep low over Iceland and a high pressure area over the Azores, the difference being fairly substantial therefore a +NAO? I agree this is often associated with mild but wet winters, not quite what we have had so far
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@munich_irish, nothing substantial has happened to the skill of long range weather forecasting in the last year or so. They can be successful in predicting the overall patterns, they can fail badly. The fact they have had some success so far this season doesn’t necessarily mean they will be successful for the rest of the season. I’m not saying they are pointless just cautioning against treating them as gospel which you seem to be determined to do (especially if they support your apparently rather gloomy outlook).
The second chart shows cold conditions for the Alps with below average temperatures and snow for the Pyrenees heading on to the southern and eastern Alps. But it’s FI so.
You are right about the NAO, but my point was that it is less the +NAO (low over Iceland high over Azores) rather than the position of high pressure over Europe that is the point.
Anyway do tell me how your entrenched view that we would have a continuation of sun and mild temperatures is going?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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That was a bit mad in Schladming. Must have been cold too!
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@nozawaonsen, I am not treating the long term outlooks as gospel, all they can do is indicate a general weather pattern over a number of months, so a generally mild winter does not exclude some cooler and snowy periods. The outlooks from October suggested a +NAO pattern with higher than average temperatures. ECM (& UKMO and Americans) predicted stronger than trend cyclonic activity / low pressure in the Atlantic and higher pressure over Europe, sound familiar?
There is an element of subjectivity with all this, the evidence around me is for a very mild winter so far (at work the snow plough attachment for the forklift is gathering dust on its shelf along with our snow blower) and not much evidence to suggest that is going to change. I realise that the variabilities of weather means that it is simply not possible to accurately predict the weather beyond the next few days (even that is difficult) but unfortunately I see little to dissuade me from my rather gloomy outlook as to "decent" winter weather. I can, of course, hope I am wrong.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Really interesting to see where the high pressure will position it self in the middle of the next week. The further north and west, the chillier it will get in Europe.
Looks certain that we will see a chillier episode from 5th of February. After that it is a lot of uncertainties, but AO forecast and EC monthly suggests a return to high pressure and warmer than average. Last picture on today’s EC 00 supports this. Can also see hints of this in the GFS. The likelihood of a SSW is fading away.
So, next week will bring a lot of percipitation for the Alps, with very variable snow level. Northern Alps will get the most, but might southeastern Alps might get a big dump around the 5th. Large uncertainties behind next week, but highest probability for a return to some kind of high with above temperatures.
Be really careful in the days ahead. Avalanche danger will be high with a lot of powder panic. Heavy precipitation with fluctuating temperatures on a really old snowpack is a dangerous combination!!!
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Wed 29-01-20 9:26; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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There is a lot of snow this morning. And not much blasting (heard one so far), so seems it’s another single valley day.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Woosh, do you mean 5th Feb rather than Jan?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Woosh wrote: |
After that it is a lot of uncertainties, but AO forecast and EC monthly suggests a return to high pressure and warmer than average. Last picture on today’s EC 00 supports this. Can also see hints of this in the GFS. The likelihood of a SSW is fading away.
So, next week will bring a lot of precipitation for the Alps, with very variable snow level. Northern Alps will get the most, but might southeastern Alps might get a big dump around the 5th. Large uncertainties behind next week, but highest probability for a return to some kind of high with above temperatures.
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It is frowned upon to be negative 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@NickyJ, Yeah, thanks
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@munich_irish, no, he’s just commenting on the outlook. Flags up the cold spell, flags up potential for return to milder weather. You would have just talked about there being nothing positive to see and feeling pretty pessimistic about everything. Can you see the difference?
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@nozawaonsen, err not quite
| Quote: |
| The chart you posted for 4th/5th February (week away) shows low pressure over Ukraine / western Russia which brings colder air down across Germany into the eastern alps. It is exactly the sort of weather pattern that has been missing this season so far (in an ideal world the low pressure would be centred a bit further west but given the amount of high pressure systems we cant be too choosy). I know it is only one run and it might change but it does give some hope for decent snow for a couple of days. The follow on chart might be less certain but it does suggest back to the mild dry, high pressure weather we have seen so much of. Can always hope the modeling is wrong |
That is exactly the same, some snow then likely back to mild & dry
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Steady snow in Chamonix. Snow blower being readied.
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@munich_irish, except you were talking about different charts at that point which pointed at different things! As I mentioned above the second FI chart would in fact have produced cold and snow in the Pyrenees and then onto the southern Alps. Not mild and dry. All a bit moot now mind you because it was an FI chart which doesn’t appear in the current outlook.
Take a look back at the exchange on this page (Eeyore downwards) and look at the current snow.
https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=147999&start=1480
Do you not with hindsight think maybe you were being just a tiny bit negative?
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FAQ
