 Poster: A snowHead
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NW alps start of winter pattern recognition test:
2013/14 Dec 26th
2014/15 Dec 29th
2015/16 Jan 1st
2016/17 Jan 3rd
2017/18 ?
Should keep the blood pressure down next year if I don't watch 40,000 hours of meandering model output
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@langball, not at 03 January 2017 yet...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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i know, but I like the odds. GFS has the led the way so far, and I'm riding that horse
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Huge differences between weather models now for next Tuesday/Wednesday event.
Bergfex Ischgl showing 4cm max over 3 days, Skiclub (snow forecast) showing 65cm...
I'll take the latter, but Snowforecast is in habit of overestimating.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@buchanan101, no model can accurately forecast snow quantity.
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@nozawaonsen, i knew it was time for something funky....those stats are since 1996, I was referring to the last 6 weeks of high pressure blocking. Clearly ECM has jumped the gun a few times. It's only a few runs but GFS 8-10 day pressure anomaly has finally shifted west of France with low pressure stretching N-S across Europe.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
06z keeps the music spinning......check out The Sequence - Funk you up
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @buchanan101, no model can accurately forecast snow quantity. |
I know, but I assume that large a difference means that they are assuming different paths for the depressions - the models will have some idea whether fall is near insignificant (Bergfex) or heavy (Snowforecast)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Snow-forecast.com is nonsense but if it shows 20cm of snow for 4-5 days in a row you know it is probably going to snow and I love looking at the big red numbers.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@peter w, very simple version. Top line refers to temperature. Bottom line precipitation.
The more activity on the bottom line the more unsettled the outlook is.
You can see the shift from 03 January when the temperature also falls. As low pressure pushes down from the north the chances of colder temperatures, snowfall and stronger winds increases (compared to the dry, sunny, calm weather that often accompanies high pressure).
That shift is still six to seven days out, but is starting to come into focus now. Snowfall amounts are hard to see at that range and are shifting around run to run (so be very careful of any figures cropping up on popular weather websites). At present it looks like it will favour the northern side of the Alps and the eastern end (so Austria, central parts of which are also seeing snow this morning), but this should become clearer over the next couple of days. |
Thank you Peter W for asking and Noza for your kind reply.
I've been too scared to ask and too lazy to find out myself for about 3 years 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| langball wrote: |
NW alps start of winter pattern recognition test:
2013/14 Dec 26th
2014/15 Dec 29th
2015/16 Jan 1st
2016/17 Jan 3rd
2017/18 ?
Should keep the blood pressure down next year if I don't watch 40,000 hours of meandering model output |
This interests me! Are you watching temperatures or precipitation or combinations?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Fifespud, me too! 
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Worth adding that GFS is in low res from +240 and that in FI the patter over several runs is far more useful than any individual run.
Also Page one, Post one.
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You know it makes sense.
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@letsgetpiste, all of the above, plus pressure and jet stream (all available on meteociel.fr). See previous page ensembles for Chamonix and 06z below for PdS. Nothing certain of course, but some encouraging signs developing....high pressure shifting west, potentially very cold northerly wind setting up. Just need those storms to roll in. Today we have a cold easterly wind hitting lake Geneva (The Bise), a real taste of winter despite continued dry and sunny conditions for a few more days.
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=46.1606&lon=6.6708
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| langball wrote: |
NW alps start of winter pattern recognition test:
2013/14 Dec 26th
2014/15 Dec 29th
2015/16 Jan 1st
2016/17 Jan 3rd
2017/18 ?
Should keep the blood pressure down next year if I don't watch 40,000 hours of meandering model output |
13/14 was mid November.
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Poster: A snowHead
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What about todays Parallel GFS? It's a treat...
Is it more accurate than "normal" GFS or not?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@snowheads68, maybe in East Austria....but winter rarely starts in mid nov here. Am pretty sure we had green fields until Boxing day in PdS
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@matejp, it's beta for a May upgrade. It should be more precise if the testing goes well.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@buchanan101, I say this every year but feel the urge to say it again. Turning a range of possibilities into a single figure for snowfall is a nonsense (as we all know) but 12 seasons now of comparing snow forecast numbers with reality leaves me in no doubt that overestimates are no more frequent than underestimates. Which, if you think about the way it works, is hardly surprising.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| langball wrote: |
NW alps start of winter pattern recognition test:
2013/14 Dec 26th
2014/15 Dec 29th
2015/16 Jan 1st
2016/17 Jan 3rd
2017/18 ?
Should keep the blood pressure down next year if I don't watch 40,000 hours of meandering model output |
Yes, Winter in the Alps is arriving later and later as the years roll by, due to global warming.
Some ski resorts, particularly in France and Germany, like Megeve, are facing 2-month seasons (Jan / Feb) in the present and future, due to their low height and lack of precip.
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| Quote: |
Winter in the Alps is arriving later and later as the years roll by, due to global warming.
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...and yet we had heavy snow in mid-November and some resorts opened for the last two weekends of November, even though their official opening date was the beginning of December. Also temperatures were cold enough through December to allow plenty of snow-making, so here we had 150km of good piste skiing available during the December pre-Christmas period. Here in Saalbach it started snowing yesterday afternoon and continued throughout the night. Not convinced that global warming is having such a deleterious effect as painted. Lack of precipitation at the right time is however a problem - some bad (i.e. good) weather during early December (i.e. before we arrive) would certainly be appreciated next year.
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I agree Richard; One slope in Kitz open I think in October (though stored snow).
perhaps we expect too much; in the 80s I was frequently in low Austrian resorts with snow only on upper and north facing runs
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Some ski resorts, particularly in France and Germany, like Megeve, are facing 2-month seasons (Jan / Feb) in the present and future, due to their low height and lack of precip. |
Yet there is still Spring...
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12z GFS seems to have upped the numbers for 4th jan, for E Alps anyway.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Dashed wrote: |
| P10DW wrote: |
| it looks likely that there will be some measurable white stuff overnight 1/2 Jan |
I think "likely" is overstating it a bit! It's 8-9 days away yet. We've all got our fingers crossed but plenty of time for change... |
You were right, my forecast now seems to have been about 12 hours out.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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More roller-coaster giggles from ECM.
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| 8611 wrote: |
I've become a last minute man in recent years, although I'm lucky enough to have a working life that facilitates that. Had too many poor snow trips and powder meant that much to me that I was tired of it. Its gotten to the point that even if I do go stateside it will be last minute (I am hoping there's some kind of we powder over there).
Having said that, there's no point in worrying about the end of january now and anyway what happens in the day or two prior to going and while you're there is key to that dragon chase. You need fresh snow, low temps and low winds. I've travelled for 30cm fresh only to find it warm and raining the next day. I've also travelled to a resort closed the day before due to too much snow and avalanche risk but found the place was completely scoured of the fresh by the wind by the time I got up. So I had to add new variables to my conditions for optimal travel learnt from experience.
If you're on here posting then you love skiing, if you love skiing then you'll enjoy it even in sub optimal conditions. There are plenty of people posting here from resorts still enjoying themselves. If people haven't booked hold off if they can, if people have booked and are travelling around the world consider changing their final destination closer to the time when they know where the best conditions are. And if you can't do either of the above you'll still enjoy yourself.
Please don't worry about late january its far too early for that. |
Have to agree with this. I had a few trips over the years that were clunkers. (bad conditions that even included lift closures on multiple days  ) As I've gotten older, I've gotten more last minute with the ski trips. Of course I live in ski country here in the Cascades and can be in the steep & deep in less than an hour if it's dumping. But sometimes you want to go somewhere else. Sometimes you want to experience different cultures/food/vibes,terrain etc..Sometimes you want to ski powder!
After canceling a trip to Europe for Xmas 2015, and then re-booking something last minute on a DIY trip that was really cheap, that included a stupendous amount of snow and powder, I'm inclined to continue the last minute thingy. I've done it a few times with really amazing short ski trips chasing storms.
Obviously when you book somtheing in advance you develop snow fever waiting and watching when the winter isn't going the way you planned or hoped for. Been there done that.
@8611 Check out www.powderchasers.com Not quite as good as wepowder but they do a pretty good job for storm chasing on this side of the pond. (and yes that current forecast has been spot on, and awesome conditions right now.
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You know it makes sense.
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@Toadman, @Toadman,
I agree, but my job requires planning vacation months out with little flexibility. Also, living in the southeast USA now its's not so easy as living in Europe or the western USA. Last year it snowed heavily two days before I went to Utah, yet it was skied out and 50 degrees on my arrival,so as you said you just don't know. I'm trying to keep my options open for a couple of short trips to the west in March, but we will see.
Sometimes too sticking it out yields great results. Last year at Whislter the morning was stormy with 100km/hr winds. My son and I stayed skied through it, the skies cleared, the mountain opened up and we were one of the few out to enjoy fresh snow.
The trips planned way in advance do provoke anxiety, too much in my case, but I want to experience skiing in the Alps. Hopefully things will begin looking better.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
Bergfex Ischgl showing 4cm max over 3 days, Skiclub (snow forecast) showing 65cm...
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It is looking like 10cm over 4 days from Monday in the Western French Alps, so quite a weak weather system. It will make the man-made stuff nicer to ski on if it plays out. Continuing unsettled afterwards it seems.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@davidof, it looks like one of those rather grim and grey weeks where the bise blows and the vis is crap and the snow is of little consequence.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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If it is going to snow for 4 days, it will probably be quite helpful to most resorts. Depends whether the glass is half full I suppose.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| snowheads68 wrote: |
| 12z GFS seems to have upped the numbers for 4th jan, for E Alps anyway. |
And it's all gone in the 18Z.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| zzz wrote: |
| @davidof, it looks like one of those rather grim and grey weeks where the bise blows and the vis is crap and the snow is of little consequence. |
My main concern is the commute to work to be honest next week and it might not be good for that but it should clear out the pollution.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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At present the weather as we go into January does not look like a sudden switch to heavy snowfall across the Alps. It does look like a shift from the absolute dominance of high pressure. That should bring relief to some areas more than others, but at this stage we are talking about gradual rather than transformational improvements.
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@nozawaonsen,
Not surprising.
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A week of murk and mizzle bringing a few cms of snow? I'd prefer a continuation of the present glorious sunshine. Though the pollution in the valleys is certainly grim. Driving up from Sallanches in the dark on Monday it was stunning how a sky full of stars emerged just two or three bends up the road towards Combloux.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Can anybody shed any light on where the snow for the western alps on 3/1-5/1 has gone? last couple of days it seems to have disappeared off all the forecasts. I'm heading to la plagne on Saturday and was hoping this snowfall would just freshen things up a bit.
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One consequence of a lot of places only having a ribbon of cannon snow down most pistes, is that it's very obvious where the pistes are so hard to get lost or go accidentally off piste for those unfamiliar with the resort they are in 
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FAQ
As much for not having problems with my flight in to Innsbruck...
