 Poster: A snowHead
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pam w no (or very little) valley snow expected tomorrow - go for it 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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red 27, I think i shall!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Couple of takes on the weather in the US (the second is Utah focussed).
Herb Stevens 01 January 2012
- "The weather pattern that closed out 2011 was nothing to write home about for most resorts in the U.S and Canada, but I am happy to tell you that the New Year will get off to a much better start with respect to the weather."
- "While the East will be dominated by a very deep trough for much of this week, the West will be under the influence of a complimentary ridge, leading to dry, warmer air."
- "The resorts, of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana have enjoyed a snowy spell during the past week, and conditions have improved considerably."
A Bleak Start to the New Year
- "Will 2012 usher in improved prospects for snow? Not this week."
Back in the Alps, the 18z GFS continued a pattern of late suggesting a colder spell coming up from the 09 January (though whether it will be just two or three days or longer is open to question).
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Continuing divergence between GFS and the European models over the weather coming in at the end of the week. Both see further heavy snow, but differ on amounts quite substantially. Again reflected in snowfall figures being predicted by different forecasts. As an example snowforecast.com suggests 50cm between Wednesday and Saturday in the Arlberg. Bergfex is suggesting a rather extreme 1m 50cm. The latter would be pretty serious and disruptive. So uncertainty, but snow one way or another.
Still looks pretty windy in the UK tomorrow.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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How we looking for the tarentaise towards the end of the week Noza ???.....heading to ste foy with on overnight in chambray on Saturday night. Cheers
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The Tarentaise, like the rest of the Alps looks likely to see substantial snow towards the end of the week, particularly on Thursday with winds picking up. Friday should see conditions clearing and Saturday currently looks like it will be pretty sunny with blue skies. Cold in the morning though.
Beyond that the start of next week currently looks like low cloud in the west and light snow in the east of the Alps with temperatures cold for the time of year and clearing for Tuesday.
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Tue 17-01-12 12:47; edited 1 time in total
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Tomorrow looks clearer across the Alps.
But snow looks like it will be pushing in again by Wednesday morning (WRF Wednesday 04 January 2011 0600 ).
Thursday 05 January should see much stronger snowfall.
WRF 1500
WRF 1800
WRF 2100
Which continues into Friday particularly in the eastern Alps.
Saturday probably clearer, before another lighter (though perhaps not insignificant) snowfall arrives Sunday into Monday - currently a little stronger looking in the east as high pressure edges in from the west.
Into FI this pattern continues with high pressure keeping any snowfall slightly to the east. Obviously a lot of uncertainty out that far and a pretty broad spread on the ensembles.
This year the Tirol avalanche bulletin is also running a daily blog (in German). There was an interesting piece on December's snowfall today which has a good illustration showing how the western Tirol has so far benefited most from the snowfall. Today's other piece made the point that the risk of full depth snow slides (Gleitschneelawinen - pattern 2) was likely to be with us all season.
Here's SLF on Wednesday and Thursday.
Widespread considerable avalanche danger.
Trend for Wednesday and Thursday
"On Tuesday night a little snow will fall in the north. During the day, the weather will become increasingly dry. Snow will begin to fall again on Thursday. On each of the next two days, the wind will be strong to very strong from the west to northwest. The strong wind will give rise to a greater prevalence of avalanche prone locations on Wednesday and Thursday."
In the US, snow fall has been picking up in the north and east, but still tricky in the southwest. Reno just recorded it's driest December in 130 years.
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Some lovely conditions today, but tomorrow morning should bring... snow.
It looks like pushing in from early morning.
Here it is at 0400 on WRF.
It looks like clearing the west by lunchtime.
This though is just a precursor to Thursday's more significant snow.
Into next weekend and the following week (with decreasing confidence) it currently looks like the west will be slightly calmer and more influenced by high pressure whilst the east may still find a number of snowy days coming up.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, Interesting links to the tryol avi report and blogs. Maybe it's my german but I can't see an explanation given for full depth slide risk and why it will remain a risk all season. I know on the arlberg thread there's talk of the warm ground temps when the first snowfall arrived but would this persist as an issue all season? Depth hoar can persist and be a problem but I don't think this is the case this year as the snow arrived in big volumes so a decent depth snow pack has been established without any lengthy cold session.
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waynos, my understanding is that risk of a full depth snow slide is increased when there is a moist or wet layer between the snow pack and the ground.
This is more likely when the ground is warm.
This season we had a very mild autumn which meant the ground did not cool as rapidly as it normally would before the snow arrived.
When the snow did arrive in the northern Alps it was heavy snow which quickly built up an insulating blanket on top of that warmer than normal ground before it had a chance to cool.
As a result of the insulation the snow provides the ground it is unlikely it will cool substantially through he season now.
But happy to hear other opinions.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Bergfex has about 1.75cm falling between now and Saturday in the Arlberg which would certainly shut things down
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At the moment I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Off to St Anton on Sunday and am already nervous about my off-piste course, even without such a hairy forecast.
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You know it makes sense.
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lets hope not too much ofa storm, heading out tomorrow to alpbach for four days, been getting a little over excited looking at forecast and now could possibly work against us!!!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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lets hope not too much ofa storm, heading out tomorrow to alpbach for four days, been getting a little over excited looking at forecast and now could possibly work against us!!!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Pedantica, and just think, a while ago you were worried about all the rocks!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I'd imagine that Bergfex figure is at the higher end of what might happen! (I've also noticed that's actually to Sunday). Anyway plenty if snow to play in Pedantica and some good guides I'm sure.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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pam w, no, I've got accustomed to skiing in conditions of sparse snow, it's avalanches I've been worried about, and still am. Not to mention a predicted inability to stand upright in waist-deep powder, let alone ski in it.
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nozawaonsen, liking the forecast, I return to Austria after a xmas trip to the UK on Monday, could be turning up to lots of fresh stuff. Back on the chat on glide avalanches and ground temp topic, (not quite weather but no ones started an avi only thread)
I've done a fair bit of googling on the interaction of ground temps and snowpack but found very little about what happens when first winter snow arrives on warm ground.
Does seems once there's around a 1m of snow then the ground is insulated from effects of air temperature. Also read some stuff about what happens to melt water as in does it find an ice layer in the pack to flow down, does it make it to the ground and then will some of the melt drain into the ground or start flowing on the ground surface. The more you read the more complex things get.
I did find this paper on glide avalanches, highlights the importance of free flowing water on the ground / snow interface to glide avis, but doesn't seem to list ground temps as a main cause to melt water leading for glides, though it does get a mention.
http://avalancheinfo.net/Newsletters%20and%20Articles/Articles/JonesGlideProcesses.pdf
An old study from the 70s, some stuff about how melt water flows.
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=3jYrAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA79&lpg=PA79&dq=snow+ground+temperature+melting+early+season&source=bl&ots=Qy0DXSJ-IU&sig=2HwaoW_2bfe-t-kqyeViZjRgPp0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=_IIDT6DMIJTT4QTM0uGNCA&ved=0CCUQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=snow%20ground%20temperature%20melting%20early%20season&f=false
This talks about permafrost and the "Winter equilibrium temperature", does suggest ground temp (GST) can vary from season to season
http://www.permanet-alpinespace.eu/archive/pdf/GST.pdf
What I don't understand is how the ground cools or doesn't when snow lands on it in big quantities. One assumes the initial snowfall on hitting warm ground will melt but in the process cool the ground, if the ground stays warm the snow at the bottom keeps melting and keeps cooling the ground but how long does this take to bring the ground to a steady 0-ish. Then add affects of the occasional rain event and continuous loading and thickening of the snowpack and the reduced influence of air temps.
I'm starting to see how there are whole uni courses dedicated to snow science, if I only had the time.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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After the weekend it seems we are in for a relatively sustained period of more settled weather.
What is the feeling on when this is likely to break down.
Purely self interest of course as I'm off to Swizterland on the 26th Jan.
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Pedantica,
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inability to stand upright in waist-deep powder, let alone ski in it.
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Trying to get ones skis back to the surface once they have sunk was my problem 
My hip and knees still ache. Powder snow can be very heavy!
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Tirol Avalanche bulletin assessment of the weather coming in.
"Weather in general: Over the next few days, a series of perturbances will be funneled from the Atlantic towards the Alps, some of them heavily laden with moisture and accompanied by westerly to northwesterly winds ranging in velocity from strong to storm strength, on Thursday night even reaching gale strength. Extremely heavy snowfall is expected in the mountains."
It does look like it will be calmer in the west once this has passed, though in the eastern Alps it looks like unsettled weather and snow is likely through Monday.
High pressure pushes in from the west next week following a short cold spell, leading to milder and calmer weather by midweek. How things develop beyond that is inevitably uncertain, ECM is currently keener than GFS to pull down colder and more unsettled weather by the end of the week, but too far off to have any confidence.
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Wed 4-01-12 10:14; edited 1 time in total
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Great updates nozawaonsen, love the use of Gimme Shelter
Off to Flaine at the weekend and its looking very promising for next week, cold temps, fresh snow and sun shine 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Tomorrow looks like a wild one - a huge blizzard all day
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Thursday / Friday looks set to be one of the biggest storms to hit the Alps in a long time.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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some of the resort websites don t seem to give that impression Whitegold, but Noza's updates certainly seem to indicate substantial and probably disruptive weather depending on where you are.
We are driving down to Ste Foy overnighting(Sat) in Chambery which seems like a result as it will give them longer to clear the roads around BSM.
Having been out there for the epic snow of 15-22 Dec, anymore than that will see many resorts unable to open!!!!!!!!!
amnd to think that first week of Dec I was worried about it being GREEN!!!!!!!!!!!!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Whitegold...after my last post i thought i d double check the Val D'Isere site.....LOL....snow tonight follwed by 80cms Thursday!!!!!!!!!!.......thats substantial.......good job we are in Chambery for the night Saturday, i d say BSM will be chocka on Saturday!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wednesday January 4th, 2012 Thursday January 5th, 2012
Forecast Cloudy weather this morning. They weaken during the afternoon cloudy and return by the West. The limit snow expected around 800 to 900 meters. The clouds thicken quickly. The snow limit is between 800 and 1200 m. The layer of fresh snow in the mountains is about 80 cm.
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You know it makes sense.
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anymore than that will see many resorts unable to open!!!!!!!!!
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absolutely. There's definitely such a thing as too much snow. Even our rather gentle area, with no big mountains threatening the slopes, and by no means avalanche-prone, took quite a while to get stuff open after that December snowfall.
I'd also be concerned about power cuts - most ski resorts (and selfishly, our own little apartment) are dependent on electricity. The various authorities have done a great job so far of keeping supplies going, keeping roads passable, blasting the slopes etc. But they can't do it instantly. And if the quantity of snow doesn't close things down the winds could well do so!
However, opinions still seem to vary a bit - meteo france forecasts for the northern Alps are nothing too special - not many "three snowflake" symbols on their maps at the moment! Maybe this storm of the century will be a damp squib?
One useful thing is that there will be a lot fewer people heading for the resorts this coming weekend.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I want to see LOTS of photos of this storm! I'll be glued to the webcams tomorrow. Lots of people will be sitting in cosy bars watching the snow pile up.
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Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen I am reading that it will be cold now till tuesday but then it appears to get warm very quickly with no more snow.
Do you have any idea what sort of temps we can expect.
The GFS seams to be suggesting temp above of +5c at 1500m which sound exceptionally warm for the 2nd week in Jan.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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However, opinions still seem to vary a bit - meteo france forecasts for the northern Alps are nothing too special - not many "three snowflake" symbols on their maps at the moment! Maybe this storm of the century will be a damp squib?
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Well if you insist on hyping it into "The Storm Of The Century" then it's pretty much guaranteed to disappoint! 
Meteo France suggesting:
60cm for Beaufortain tomorrow, snow line rising from 800m to 1000m and 60kmh winds at 3000m.
70cm for Mont Blanc, snow line rising from 800m to 900m and 60kmh at 2000m.
Not sure whether this will end up heavier than the pre Christmas storm, it will certainly be heavy, it looks more sustained in the eastern Alps.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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if you insist on hyping it
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? not me. 60cms would be more than enough for me - we have huge amounts already and I don't anything which would shut things down or theaten my cosy power supply The following comments were from others:
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Bergfex has about 1.75cm falling between now and [edit: Sunday] in the Arlberg which would certainly shut things down.
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Tomorrow looks like a wild one - a huge blizzard all day
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Thursday / Friday looks set to be one of the biggest storms to hit the Alps in a long time.
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MF forecast for Les Saisies at 1650 tomorrow is no snow in the morning, moderate in the afternoon (down to 1000m) with 5 km/h wind and heavy snow only in the evening, with 20 km/h winds and only to 1300m. Just a few flakes on Friday.
I have found MF to be not too reliable - where are the figures you quoted to be found? Maybe I should explore the website more fully.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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80 cms is quoted on Val d website
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| pam w wrote: |
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if you insist on hyping it
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? not me. 60cms would be more than enough for me - we have huge amounts already and I don't anything which would shut things down or theaten my cosy power supply The following comments were from others:
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Bergfex has about 1.75cm falling between now and [edit: Sunday] in the Arlberg which would certainly shut things down.
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Tomorrow looks like a wild one - a huge blizzard all day
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Thursday / Friday looks set to be one of the biggest storms to hit the Alps in a long time.
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MF forecast for Les Saisies at 1650 tomorrow is no snow in the morning, moderate in the afternoon (down to 1000m) with 5 km/h wind and heavy snow only in the evening, with 20 km/h winds and only to 1300m. Just a few flakes on Friday.
I have found MF to be not too reliable - where are the figures you quoted to be found? Maybe I should explore the website more fully. |
The snowfall in the west will not be as deep as in the east this time.
It won't puke as hard as pre-Christmas in France.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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All I can say is STOP snowing, I want to ski bashed pistes where I can see where I,m going and what I,m hitting , spent the last few months worrying about nobsnow, then purchasing chains, now I,m worrying about to much snow.......... Funny
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| phillip33 wrote: |
| spent the last few months worrying about nobsnow |
That's an unusual thing to be worrying about.
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Enormous LOL. Excellent.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| rob@rar wrote: |
| phillip33 wrote: |
| spent the last few months worrying about nobsnow |
That's an unusual thing to be worrying about. |
am i right in thinking it`s yellow
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60cms would be more than enough for me
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FAQ
