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The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I find all this totally fascinating!!! Am going on my first boarding holiday on 12th (something thats been on the to-do list for years and years) and am totally transfixed by any weather report. Having only ever practiced in the fridges in the UK, a real snowy mountain is very exciting... and has even led to joining forums!

Heading to the Pyrenees which seem to be holding up ok? I think? Puzzled
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I'd also say that a lot of resorts HAVENT invested in the snow making capability that the Porte Du Soliel has and therefore it might be a different story in those resorts. It all depends on how high they are, how much snow making capability they have and even the time of day (most runs deteriorate as more people ski them during the day)
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
mrgallacher wrote:
I find all this totally fascinating!!! Am going on my first boarding holiday on 12th (something thats been on the to-do list for years and years) and am totally transfixed by any weather report. Having only ever practiced in the fridges in the UK, a real snowy mountain is very exciting... and has even led to joining forums!

Heading to the Pyrenees which seem to be holding up ok? I think? Puzzled


Pyrenees looks pretty good at the moment. I'd hate to be a learner boarder in France over the next couple of weeks...!
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A slightly wetter medium term outlook on the 12z GFS run. Nothing for the next 10 days though.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
The 12z GFS runs are a bit more interesting...

The control run picks up on the cold from the east idea quite seriously... And there are a number of even colder ensembles... Also suggests how quickly the scenes could shift... Not enough support to get seriously interested at this stage though... Here it is at +240 for a laugh though...

Control run (not operational)



You can see it clearly in these ensembles for the Arlberg (dark blue run).



And the idea of snow in the Alps starts to look like it may not have been completely ruled out in the operational run...
You can see it reaching the French Alps in the ensembles below (FI obviously so it won't actually happen like this...)

Chamonix



Hope. Flickering hope. But hope... wink


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Wed 2-02-11 20:23; edited 1 time in total
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This may have talked about before - but is there any way you could summarise what the above is in a few easy sentances?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
mrgallacher, the outlook across the Alps over the next few days is mild, sunny and dry. It is unclear how this will develop, although against a backdrop of continuing dry and mild weather there are at least some signs this evening that cooler weather possibly with snow could move into the Alps in ten days or so... but until there is more support for this scenario over a number of runs then confidence is extremely low.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Thanks for the earlier explanation of the wigglies nozawaonsen, much appreciated Toofy Grin
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nozawaonsen, at least it is something instead of nothing....time for a snow/cold weather dance
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nozawaonsen i know i said i wouldnt look on sites until monday before i went ( sat 19th feb for valdisere) but my daughter accidently pressed the snowhead fav button ( rudddy out of control 4 yr olds,i blame her mum) anyway also when my daughter pressed a wrong button i noticed on BBC,S monthly outlook that in the 2nd week they said the HIGH would move south, now i know youve poo poo,d the beeb before but honestly ive been following the weather for years now,and for some reason their trend predicting is quite good,so with your power on the gfs stuff i think we may be onto something,now i know last week i accused you of needing to grab ze balls when predicting( was only joking and a few glasses in and actually i was right i predicted the high would lose its grip on thursday ( tomorrow) and things would change,what i didnt predict was it would lose its grip and then tighten it, hence heatwave at the weekend,anyway enough of that , just unluky .where was i (on 3rd glass sorry yes i know problem drinker) LIKE IN SEX IN CITY question " how much snow does it take to transform a resort?

ps we talked and you discussed whether the snow that fell a few days ago in the south and whether it would reach Valdisere, well it did well the " fORNET SECTOR 20 to 30 cms and yet nothing in Valdisere itself,thats one mile approx away amazing and gutting, so fingers crossed and i,m off again well until my daughter presses the wrong button again,what these girls will do for bonus stars

apologies for spell mistake cant be botthered to check as drinking snowHead
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Still a grim outlook for the grand massif next week from sunday i take it?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
phillip33 wrote:
nozawaonsen i know i said i wouldnt look on sites until monday before i went ( sat 19th feb for valdisere) but my daughter accidently pressed the snowhead fav button ( rudddy out of control 4 yr olds,i blame her mum) anyway also when my daughter pressed a wrong button i noticed on BBC,S monthly outlook that in the 2nd week they said the HIGH would move south, now i know youve poo poo,d the beeb before but honestly ive been following the weather for years now,and for some reason their trend predicting is quite good,so with your power on the gfs stuff i think we may be onto something,now i know last week i accused you of needing to grab ze balls when predicting( was only joking and a few glasses in and actually i was right i predicted the high would lose its grip on thursday ( tomorrow) and things would change,what i didnt predict was it would lose its grip and then tighten it, hence heatwave at the weekend,anyway enough of that , just unluky .where was i (on 3rd glass sorry yes i know problem drinker) LIKE IN SEX IN CITY question " how much snow does it take to transform a resort?

ps we talked and you discussed whether the snow that fell a few days ago in the south and whether it would reach Valdisere, well it did well the " fORNET SECTOR 20 to 30 cms and yet nothing in Valdisere itself,thats one mile approx away amazing and gutting, so fingers crossed and i,m off again well until my daughter presses the wrong button again,what these girls will do for bonus stars

apologies for spell mistake cant be botthered to check as drinking snowHead


rabbit rabbit rabbit...lol
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
As nozawaonsen mentions above, things looking a bit more encouraging for the period around the middle of the month.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Puzzled I'm not aware I questioned the BBC's weather output before? I wonder if you mean someone else?

Far more interesting is ECM 12z...

Here is ECM at +240

Here is GFS control at +240

Will be worth watching to see if this can gather more support.

Incidentally even though there are going to be some warm temperatures over the weekend. It does look like it will still be fairly cold over night in the Alps especially in the eastern Alps which should be good for keeping the pistes in good condition.



bobojim, over in Japan Hokkaido got a good lot of snow over the weekend (around two metres over five days). It's calmed a little now, although it looks though like another storm is moving in early next week... Very Happy


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Thu 3-02-11 8:08; edited 2 times in total
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Puzzled I'm not aware I questioned the BBC's weather output before? I wonder if you mean someone else?

Far more interesting is ECM 12z...

Here is ECM at +240

Here is GFS control at +240

Will be worth watching to see if this can gather more support.

Incidentally even though there are going to be some warm temperatures over the weekend. It does look like it will still be fairly cold over night in the Alps especially in the eastern Alps.



bobojim, over in Japan Hokkaido got a good lot of snow over the weekend (around two metres over five days). It's calmed a little now, although it looks though like another storm is moving in early next week... Very Happy
far more interesting ?? were on a website predicting whether it will snow or not in 3 5 7 290 days time, excuse me ( 4 glasses in ) just trying to have some fun, anyway see you soon
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
So in a rare glass half full moment, nice warm sunny days soften snow from ice cold on an evening lots of snowmaking followed by blue sky days?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
mattiwilkin, why not! Very Happy Chuck in a cold beer too...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
mattiwilkin, I'm having a glass half full moment liking the thought of some nice soft snow for a change. And warm sunshine is always great. However, if temperatures are anything like forecast, you can forget the idea of snowmaking overnight.
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Nozawaonsen.......I'll chuck you a cold one for..............................................................7 cold snowy ones in 2 weeks time
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
noz was sayin about v cold overnight temps? Hey i can dream went to austria and flew back 2 days before it snowed big time so at the moment the snow gods are against me. really want a top week next week as we are going with our friends and there little ones for there first ski holiday, irony is i uch prefer austria but thought would go french to get the best possible conditions for them. gutted but will just try top that glass back up.
snow dance everyone
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mattiwilkin, where are you going? (sorry, probably missed that further up the thread)?

All through the last warm spell, when things were getting very thin, they couldn't blow snow. The first snowblowing here was, IIRC on 19 January - just after it had cooled down rapidly. Then they went full tilt during that very cold period and made a big difference. They don't seem to blow snow unless it's really cold at night - just a couple of degrees below zero doesn't do it.

"Little ones out for a first holiday" will almost certainly be fine. Certainly the nursery slopes here are in excellent condition - it's more the experts wanting steep blacks and off piste who are out of luck.

And there's nothing worse for little ones on their first holiday than freezing temperatures, wind chill and bad vis. Warm sunshine, a good instructor and some nice soft snow will be ideal. snowHead
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen, any opinions about Hokkaido from the start of next week onwards? Just how often do systems pass through? It seems like an almost daily occurrence since I've been paying attention.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
rob@rar wrote:
nozawaonsen, any opinions about Hokkaido from the start of next week onwards? Just how often do systems pass through? It seems like an almost daily occurrence since I've been paying attention.
Oops, sorry, didn't realise you'd already addressed this further up. Good news Happy
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> They don't seem to blow snow unless it's really cold at night - just a couple of degrees below zero doesn't do it.

They don't do it because they can't do it. Most snow making needs it to be -4C. In France they don't even use snowmax anymore which makes snow making even more problematic. At my local resort they've made a mountain of snow about 50 meters high for when they can't blow snow next weekend.

For France, a couple of light falls in February followed by a rapid thaw and the start of spring with a warm March and hot April. Still we'd had a couple of good seasons. A bummer but that is how it goes. At least the ski and boot sales have started in earnest.
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Quote:

snowmax

is that a (polluting) additive which makes it possible to blow snow at higher temperatures?

Quote:

For France, a couple of light falls in February followed by a rapid thaw and the start of spring with a warm March and hot April.

which crystal ball?
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It is very sunny and warm here in Austria- Bad Gastein, we still have 3 days left and looks like it will stay like this.
After last week snowfall, there is still plenty of snow, even in the valley. And it is holding well.
Beautiful weather.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
rob@rar, From the Snow Japan website for Niseko:
"The milder temps will continue through to the weekend when it will start cooling down again with some snow on Saturday. At this stage a pretty big system is expected to start affecting the region from Monday with lots of snow expected to return throughout next week."
Could be for most weeks so far this season but it's dated yesterday Very Happy Looks like you'll have lots of fun.......Enjoy!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Interesting ECM 00z run this morning. Again pushing the case for high pressure building over Scandinavia and cold coming in from the east reaching towards the Alps...



GFS 00z ensembles also showing the number of runs going much colder than average gently increasing, operational isn't buying it yet, though dips below seasonal average in some place (a few days ago this was all looking several degrees warmer... so worth keeping a watch on).
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Snowy in Scotland at the minute, snow down to Aviemore so there must be quite a bit up on the mountains. Webcams at bottom of link.

http://www.winterhighland.info/wombat/wombat.php
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Interesting ECM 00z run this morning. Again pushing the case for high pressure building over Scandinavia and cold coming in from the east reaching towards the Alps...

GFS 00z ensembles also showing the number of runs going much colder than average gently increasing, operational isn't buying it yet, though dips below seasonal average in some place (a few days ago this was all looking several degrees warmer... so worth keeping a watch on).


Yes, gathering support for an easterly. At this stage I'm not convinced that this would result in much precipitation for the majority of the alps...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Accuweather is forecasting snow in Innsbruck from Tuesday 15th
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Ricklovesthepowder, the gales and rain should sort that lot out and redistribute it/thaw it!!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

the gales and rain should sort that lot out

Some of the windspeeds being mentioned on the TV this morning are hurricane force (over 73 mph). Shocked
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pjd wrote:
Accuweather is forecasting snow in Innsbruck from Tuesday 15th


Any forecast more than 3-4 days ahead is the work of Mystic Meg.

If you look at the wigglies, when the central lines start to diverge, the forecast is losing credibility. Any precipitation showing up on the right hand side of the graph is pure guess work.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Will west meet East though that is the question?
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[quote="pam w"]
Quote:

which crystal ball?


The local peasants, they have never heard of GFS much less the Interwebs.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Didn't see it mentioned anywhere else but ........


http://www.freep.com/article/20110203/NEWS07/102030454/Groundhog-Day-results-split-decision


Sad

Never heard of the woodchuck - lets hope he knows something
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
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06z GFS jumps on the easterly bandwagon.



Good news: very, very, very cold. Pretty wet in the Eastern Alps towards the end of the run.
Bad news: utterly bone dry in the French alps.
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[quote="davidof"]
pam w wrote:
Quote:

which crystal ball?


The local peasants, they have never heard of GFS much less the Interwebs.


I didn't realise Stoatsbrother was French?
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