 Poster: A snowHead
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@Origen, yes good spot, 90 degrees, -45 to +45 which is a big enough ask, odds against normally
Snowforecast is GFS ( latest Op run). So more often than not it’s biased towards over forecasting ppn (cyclogenisis) and more importantly, eastward progression, eg underestimating a break down of the euro high.
UKMO, GEM and ECM 12Z all show signs that the shallow trough scenario is still favoured, despite GFS continuing with deep lows.
Can’t call it yet, but the core low would typically end up too far north with this pattern. 50/50 at a decent cold spell in my view
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
| Snow&skifan wrote: |
@polo
@onelasttime1!
A question for your collective meterological expertise  , is https://www.snow-forecast.com/ a reliable interpretation of models?
I really, really liked it for possibly 15 years or more, probably because it seems to forever forecast just around the corner incredibly cold weather and huge snow dumps for ski resorts.
Or did I fall hook, line and sinker for clickbait? |
I've not looked at the site in detail, but I suspect it just shows what is available on other sites such as Wetterzentrale which has a range of models, albeit with some graphical presentation of the model output. The graphics look OK, and if this helps you see what the models are saying then that's fine. Being a retired meteorologist, I would not pay extra to access longer range forecasts. GFS does has a tendency, in my view, to over-forecast the amount of precipitation in the Alps, and perhaps elsewhere, so you have to consider this when interpreting the graphics. |
Thank you.
ECMWF forecasts or models up to 15 days. Subject to the usual caveat that probability of accuracy falls each day further away, have you an opinion on its short and medium range modelling?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Verification stats are available for the main models, eg here's a link for the latest day 5's for the northern hemisphere.
CMC = GEM (canada), NCEP = GFS (usa), JMA japanese, ECMWF european, UKMO etc
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/plwww_w_other_ts_upperair?area=NHem%20Extratropics&day=5&score=Anomaly%20correlation
Long term reanalysis ranks 1 ECM 2 UKMO 3 GEM 4 GFS.....although there's not a lot of difference between 2 and 4
Interestingly if you zoom in on Europe (as opposed to NH), ECM has had a wobble recently.....so the question is, will it mean revert to being top dog for upcoming pattern, or keep underperforming in the short term. More than likely it's just noise and ECM will reassert its no.1 ranking soon imv. May also be down to lagging data.
Was curious to see what happened around Jan 23-26th, in the middle of the heatwave, and noticed that the pattern then looks quite similar to this weekend (SW nino jet, +NAO, west euro high).......which didn't turn out well, but this time will be different right?
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@andy from embsay, I like Meteoblue also.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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So radio silence is never good on this thread.......has winter snatched defeat from the jaws of victory once again or is there an outside chance of it flopping back into line?
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@RetroBod, here's a clue:
This is at 1274 metres about an hour ago.
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@Peter Ross, there will be a very cold and snowy final week in February and first week in March followed by two weeks of sunshine and clear skies with temperatures hovering around freezing at 1400m.
To quote Ally McCoist, "Of that, there is no doubt".
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@telford_mike, today was always going to be warm - still forecast to drop over the next week or so.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I'm going skiing in St Anton on 2 March and I'm generally pleased with how the models are looking from 22 Feb on (as things stand). Think my trip will likely prove well timed.
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| RetroBod wrote: |
| So radio silence is never good on this thread |
16 hours (overnight) from last post 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Today's peak near 10c at 1500m has been well forecast for over a week, but it's mostly downhill from here temp wise at least. Another spike on the 22nd, but hopefully we won't see double digits again until well into March.
No real change from yesterday....GFS/GEM took a step back towards ECM for 22nd, so all 3 in line now....but unfortunately not looking like the deep low's of a few days ago that GFS was showing. Core low is drifting a little NE, but doesn't mean we can't get a significant amount of snow to low levels.
Details are far from resolved....last nights ECM barely showed 10cm, with a glancing blow to the NW alps. GFS 12z is thinking multiples of that....just too far away.
First we need to get that flat profile in by mid week, and then look for the toughing to track south end of week. There is significant variation across the main Op runs, so am still relying on the means to have a better handle on the pattern (still 23-25th). Maybe 22nd.
Could also come in with quite a high snowline, due to the angle of approach....more Foehn likely....with high pressure to the east possibly stalling progession.
Anyway, here are some of those differing Op charts for thurs midday.
     
Even if the first hit is weak, the background and mid range charts remain favourable for further troughing / disruption.
One thing is absolutely sure....it will be very wet and windy in the UK.....you are having quite a winter up there, or is it still autumn?
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Europe badly needs fresh snow.
Some stations in Austria may need to close early, perhaps before March.
The second half of Feb is now make or break for many resorts.
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You know it makes sense.
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I could have sworn the make or break was previously divined to be Jan, and before that Dec
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Dunno how to post a pic on here, sorry, but 17 degrees today in the PDS!
Snowline rapidly retreating and me questioning the environmental impact that the huge efforts to keep the resorts going must be having. 
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Poster: A snowHead
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It was slush snow at 2000m today in St Anton, started apres at 12:30 and downloaded from Gampen as skiing slush moguls is pretty miserable tbh.
I feel for anyone coming out for next week, I would cancel if you can. The best of it this week was Monday when it was still cold with a bit of fresh snow but that’s long gone now.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Skimiss, this is Lindarets today. There’s far more snow than most of last season and temps are dropping from tomorrow, so far from disastrous and a colder and unsettled period to come.
When you say 17° and the snowline rapidly retreating where was that? The thermometer in our garden in Morzine at c900m (out of the sun) read 14° today max, and the forecast is for much lower over the next week or so.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Horrendous weather in northern England the last week. 14c at 200m in the Dales today and very heavy drizzle all day. It’s getting depressing. Most of the snow on the hills from last weekend has now gone.
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I have skied the PDS for the last 24 years. Today I had great fun with my leaners and they were all having a great time, the kids are loving this snow, they love slush they love bumps. Adults, who can ski it well can also enjoy. The snow became warm and sticky from around 1.30 pm today (off piste below maybe 1700m), personally I hate sticky snow.
It has been a very warm Feb, (so far) once again. Last season we got the goods in March and April and it was brilliant. Main issue for our area is the higher snow line, sitting about 1400m depending on slope aspect. The base will really struggle to re establish low down at this point of the season even with decent snowfall to low levels. It makes ski touring and the really exciting off piste less accessible, thats the real shame.
The pistes are still well covered on all but the lowest slopes. Even the south facing swiss side is holding up well in the PdS.
I am very hopeful for a shift in the weather from the 22nd onwards. I know very well by now never to believe winter is over. Last season I have incredible photos, videos and memories of skiing until April 26th in fresh powder.
Enjoying the posts about the weather as always. Keep them coming, thanks for the effort. I am always here reading. I am ski touring with clients tomorrow so weather is of great interest to me.
I for one had a great day, I love big slush bumps and the kids I teach love jumping and playing about in them at the end of a day. Each to their own, although I know most adults dont share their enthusiasm for these conditions!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I am currently in La Clusaz and it isn’t a high resort (about 1100m to 2500m iirc), but is pretty much all north facing. I have been very pleasantly surprised by the snow conditions. Excellent on the top half of the mountain with spring conditions/heavier snow on the bottom half. We have been skiing until 3.00pm every day. Don’t get me wrong, the off piste isn’t great, but the on-piste conditions are generally very good.
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Bottom of the Chamossierre lift at approx 12.50 today
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@Skimiss, so the temperature display on a lift? They do seem to be affected by exposure to the sun - a couple of weeks ago that same one read 23° and it certainly wasn’t that !
As others have said whilst it’s not vintage conditions (yet) it’s not terrible.
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 15-02-24 22:38; edited 3 times in total
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| Quote: |
| Bottom of the Chamossierre lift at approx 12.50 today |
What about it @Skimiss
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@mountainaddict, 17° reading on the lift display.
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O. IC! Cheers @andy from embsay
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| sean1967 wrote: |
@Peter Ross, there will be a very cold and snowy final week in February and first week in March followed by two weeks of sunshine and clear skies with temperatures hovering around freezing at 1400m.
To quote Ally McCoist, "Of that, there is no doubt". |
That's what Meteoblue suggests, we will see.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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There were temps of 17C recorded at 1100m in France yesterday so entirely possible but those lift display temps are usually completely out (sometimes by a good 10 degrees!). I think the sun warms the signs and impacts the readings.
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@Dashed, yep, I think they must put them in the sun!! I’ve certainly seen 15° on the display and then been absolutely freezing if the lift goes in the shade.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Ship it!!
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Poster: A snowHead
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@polo, your map looks like the 23rd snow event may be focused on the SE part of the Alps, at least at first. What are your thoughts? Italy is having a very dry season indeed so far.
P.S. am aware that the latest GFS op run is a snowy outlier so amounts on the map above shouldn't be taken literally.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@denfinella, should point out that above includes mondays snow along the northern alps.
But yeah it's a very possible evolution (southern alps doing well into end of week) as mentioned the angle of approach looks a little too far west initially, so pyrenees also would benefit. The flip side is the snowline will start high in the alps, sud foehn style....2000m+ along the north
Then the troughs start to disrupt against the remaining high pressure to the east, forcing a lot of ppn up from the med.
That's just one interpretation from one model as you say....but it's well within the expected range of outcomes
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I have no idea what I’m looking at on this thread, or what 95% of the posts mean.
However, as someone who’s off to the Skiwelt on a week on Saturday, I find this all incredibly compelling. Almost addictive.
Will I be skiing topless in a field, tanning like an Essex boy on a Greek two week all-inclusive, or will I be hooning down delicious, snow-filled pistes, laughing at our luck and crying tears of happiness to the Crystal rep!!???
The drama!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Reezo wrote: |
| I have no idea what I’m looking at on this thread, or what 95% of the posts mean. |
That's funny.....this is one of the only threads that makes sense to me  , so I avoid 95% of the others.
If you mean 8 days away, I'd be thinking more chance of snow than tanning. If you mean the week after, no clue.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| polo wrote: |
| Reezo wrote: |
| I have no idea what I’m looking at on this thread, or what 95% of the posts mean. |
That's funny.....this is one of the only threads that makes sense to me , so I avoid 95% of the others.
If you mean 8 days away, I'd be thinking more chance of snow than tanning. If you mean the week after, no clue. |
Yeah, we arrive on the 24th Feb for a week.
You’ve now given me further hope and yes, I’ve been reinventing some of the content here to my group who are most impressed with my newfound knowledge of weather systems, so errrm, thanks all!
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After many weeks of zonal flow across the North Atlantic bringing a succession of low pressure systems into Europe from an anomalously warm source of ocean, a change looks likely by next weekend. A major upper trough will come out of the Canadian Arctic in about 4 days time and this looks like it will cause the jet stream to veer to a more northwesterly direction over the North Atlantic and drive a low pressure system into Europe next weekend. As most will know, this is one of the better situations for widespread snow over the Alps. It then seems likely that the upper trough will persist over Europe, keeping cold air in place, with the possibility of further snow. Potentially a very good time for those going out for the last week of Feb.
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Get in, @Onelasttime1! (and @polo)!! - I am out for a short trip (3 days) next weekend so it might be a trees and goggles jobby, then not out again til mid-March - but hopefully the wintry spell in the first half of March will set up the end of the season for some sunny, snowy goodness.
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As we have Eurotunnel booked for next weekend but destination currently unknown, watching with interest!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@rob@rar, I would say they are great, they are in one respect, but the tale they tell isn't so good. Thanks for posting them.
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FAQ
