Well the uptick clearly only appears in the max not the mean. Had there been an uptick in the mean that would indeed have been odd, but I don’t think anyone was ever suggesting it did.
Anyway, 18z GFS is still suggesting a northern blast from around 05 February, which would bring further cold weather.
Here’s SLF on Tuesday and Wednesday.
“Outlook through Wednesday, 29.01.2020
On both days, skies will be heavily overcast for the most part. Only in the furthermost southern regions will it be quite sunny. Winds will be blowing at strong to storm-strength in the mountains, incrementally shifting from southwesterly to northwesterly. Particularly in the western regions and on the northern flank of the Alps, heavy precipitation is anticipated. The snowfall level will descend to below 1000 m. Avalanche danger levels are expected to increase over widespread areas, significantly so in the major areas of precipitation.“
@BobinCH, definite risk for the areas with heaviest precipitation and high winds of lift closures.
yep certainly on Tues/Weds. should have calmed down by Thursday by the looks of it... we’ll be glad of the topup #weekendwarrior
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Interesting development in today's prognosis. A significant change to colder weather around the middle of next week in the EC00. The control run in the ens is following up. A large High pressure system north west of the UK brings cold air to northern and central Europe. Might potentially lead to strong low pressure flows, particulary in southern alps. Little support for this in GFS as the high pressure quickly moves south and back to the winter story so far this winter. Little support in the AO forecast, but there might be a significant warming over the North Pole high up. Exciting times and maybe something is cooking ...
Both ECM and GFS look pretty similar at +240. GFS goes on to keep it cold into far FI.
ECM
GFS
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Here is a great free site for those who wants to follow the zonal winds and temperature at 10 hpa. Click at "Zonal mean wind and fluxes 60°N" and "Temperatures and temperature differences" far down at the site.
@nozawaonsen, Agree, but my point was the GFS 00 moves the high pressure south on 9 to 10th and you would soon be back to the January situation. That would imply only a temporary cold episode of 5 to 6 days.
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@Woosh, well maybe, by that point you are talking about 14 days out so... Can you post the ECM charts for 09/10 February?
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WRF our to Wednesday evening.
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The SLF bulletin nozawaonsen quoted says: "Particularly in the western regions and on the northern flank of the Alps, heavy precipitation is anticipated". My particular interest is the Monterosa area, where I'm heading in a couple of weeks time, and certainly the forecasts I'm seeing for there suggest reasonably heavy precipitation (SCGB website suggesting 65cm over the next 3 days). While that area is definitely in the western regions of the Alps, it's not really on the northern flank of the Alps, though, being on the south-easterly side of the Alpine ridge. So how impenetrable is this Alpine ridge to weather systems, as it's clearly not all or nothing? I suppose I'm falling into the trap of somehow imagining that weather systems respect the national border between France or Switzerland and Italy, which goes along the highest peaks, and stop there. But even north and west of the highest peaks, the weather systems clearly continue to bring their snow deep into the mountains past many high peaks otherwise there would only be snow on the north and west sides of the first mountains reached. So to some degree even such a massive mountain as Monte Rosa doesn't form a complete block.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@J2R, the mountain ranges are definitely not impermeable and despite the vogue for reintroducing barriers between countries weather systems are little interested in national borders. It depends on the strength of the weather system of course. Monterosa should benefit from the coming snowfall quite well.
Out into FI and 06z GFS keeps up the idea of a shift to colder weather and snowfall in the second week of February. All FI mind you, but gaining consistency.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
J2R wrote:
The SLF bulletin nozawaonsen quoted says: "Particularly in the western regions and on the northern flank of the Alps, heavy precipitation is anticipated". My particular interest is the Monterosa area, where I'm heading in a couple of weeks time, and certainly the forecasts I'm seeing for there suggest reasonably heavy precipitation (SCGB website suggesting 65cm over the next 3 days). While that area is definitely in the western regions of the Alps, it's not really on the northern flank of the Alps, though, being on the south-easterly side of the Alpine ridge. So how impenetrable is this Alpine ridge to weather systems, as it's clearly not all or nothing? I suppose I'm falling into the trap of somehow imagining that weather systems respect the national border between France or Switzerland and Italy, which goes along the highest peaks, and stop there. But even north and west of the highest peaks, the weather systems clearly continue to bring their snow deep into the mountains past many high peaks otherwise there would only be snow on the north and west sides of the first mountains reached. So to some degree even such a massive mountain as Monte Rosa doesn't form a complete block.
I'll be in Val D'Aosta in a couple of weeks, so would be interested to hear how much the various resorts, inc Monterosa get out of this week's storm. It looks like La Thuile & Courmayeur might get most, being very close to the watershed, benefiting from the flow over the lower Cols to the W.
My understanding is that each successive higher ridge squeezes more snow out of the atmosphere through the orographic effect, the Main Alpine ridge/watershed line running along the Italian border being the highest, leaving a rain (or snow) shadow beyond. Along the ridge itself you do get precipitation but the lower areas beyond are drier. Quite how this will play out in the specifics of the MonteRosa ski area, I don't know. My hunch is that it will get some, but perhaps not as much as Saas Fee or Zermatt on the other side of the mountain.
I once witnessed quite different conditions between Zermatt & Cervinia, Cervinia got a freshen up from a Southerly front, but Zermatt just got a dusting.
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Mon 27-01-20 12:30; edited 2 times in total
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
@J2R, the mountain ranges are definitely not impermeable and despite the vogue for reintroducing barriers between countries weather systems are little interested in national borders. It depends on the strength of the weather system of course. Monterosa should benefit from the coming snowfall quite well.
Out into FI and 06z GFS keeps up the idea of a shift to colder weather and snowfall in the second week of February. All FI mind you, but gaining consistency.
That sounds hopeful!
Missed your post whilst writing mine.
Good to get an experienced view, thanks Noza!!
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Mon 27-01-20 12:32; edited 1 time in total
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I would take the under on the 65cm at Monterosa. This is purely a NW mid-level flow event. Sometimes a trough digs down and switches the flow to southerly, delivering snow for north and south. But this is not that type of scenario. In cases like this, snow tends to rapidly decrease as you move east or south into Italy. Places like Zermatt are often an approximate boundary for significant snow. Actually Zermatt usually ends up on the drier side. I hope I'm wrong and this overdelivers everywhere, but right now I think only NW areas look great for big snows.
The longer-range charts look hopeful for Monterosa. A couple of weeks is plenty of time to build a good base if things break right.
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Poster: A snowHead
@luigi, your post was far more erudite than mine!
@altaski8, I’d agree that 65cm is possibly a little on the high side, but we‘ll see soon enough.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
altaski8 wrote:
I would take the under on the 65cm at Monterosa. This is purely a NW mid-level flow event. Sometimes a trough digs down and switches the flow to southerly, delivering snow for north and south. But this is not that type of scenario. In cases like this, snow tends to rapidly decrease as you move east or south into Italy. Places like Zermatt are often an approximate boundary for significant snow. Actually Zermatt usually ends up on the drier side. I hope I'm wrong and this overdelivers everywhere, but right now I think only NW areas look great for big snows.
The longer-range charts look hopeful for Monterosa. A couple of weeks is plenty of time to build a good base if things break right.
Monterosa usually does best from Genoa lows coming up from the S, as in the early part of the season when a handful of them passed through with some very impressive accumulations.
So, there is currently a good base 110cm/90cm, probably just needs freshening, as it hasn't snowed there since 27th Dec, according to this.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Certainly Bergfex (ECM?) is suggesting rather less, more like half the amount. But on the plus side it's not talking about rain at valley level next week, as the SCGB site is.
it’s also not clear over what period that data is drawn from!
I have asked them how long they’ve been recording this data
For Verbier Lac Des Vaux they started measuring in 1993
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@BobinCH, thanks, clearly the mean would be even smoother if it went back even further as @altaski8, said. Smooth. But given the uptick appeared in the max the mystery of the Janvril remains! And is both er mysterious and er majestic (I‘ve been drinking a lot of cough mixture, possibly too much). Something to look out for at the end of the season!
Morris also suggesting best snowfall in the Western Aosta, which from recollection is Courmayeur and I think La Thuile. From watching these over the years Courmayeur tends to get more than the other Aosta resorts, it and Chamonix will often bear the brunt (though occasionally its just Courmayeur) and I assume that is for the reasons Luigi mentions above
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@BobinCH, thanks, clearly the mean would be even smoother if it went back even further as @altaski8, said. Smooth. But given the uptick appeared in the max the mystery of the Janvril remains! And is both er mysterious and er majestic (I‘ve been drinking a lot of cough mixture, possibly too much). Something to look out for at the end of the season!
I see upticks in May, June, August, and September. But Mayuary and Junuary don't have as good a ring to them.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@altaski8, yes, but those aren’t a thing where as Janvril is! April powder!
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Is "Janvril" a French thing? If so, we can pretty much rule out there being any rational support for its existence
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Avalanche level four looking likely for parts of French and Swiss Alps.
It will be mostly very cloudy and snow will fall over a wide area. The snowfall level will drop from 1300 m to low altitudes. In the afternoon there will be some bright spells in southern Ticino and the Grisons southern valleys.
Fresh snow
In the period to Tuesday evening the following amounts of snow will fall:
Extreme west of Lower Valais: 30 to 60 cm
Northern Alpine ridge from Monthey into the Gotthard region, rest of Lower Valais, Vaud and Fribourg Alps, and western Jura: 20 to 30 cm
Elsewhere: 10 to 20 cm over a wide area, but smaller amounts in Prättigau, the inneralpine regions of Grisons, and Engadine
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m: between -8 °C in the north and -4 °C in the south
Wind
Strong to storm force from the west
Outlook through Thursday, 30.01.2020
Wednesday
It will be very cloudy with precipitation. In the west and on the northern flank of the Alps, approximately 20 to 40 cm of fresh snow will fall above 1000 m. The wind will be strong to storm force from the west to northwest. It will be partly sunny in the far south.
The avalanche danger will increase again. In northern Valais as well, danger level 4 (high) is expected to be reached.
Thursday
The east and south will have variable cloud cover and be mostly dry. The west will be very cloudy with precipitation at times. In the afternoon the snowfall level will rise to approximately 2000 m.
The avalanche danger will decrease a little. For those engaging in backcountry touring and off-piste activities, the conditions will remain critical.”
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12z GFS pulls forward the assault from the north!
If this played out it would go on to deliver temperatures well below seasonal average along with further fresh snow for the Alps as well.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Not surprisingly the op run was a cold outlier on that run, but it does have strong ensemble support for a cold spell (possibly an extended one though too early to say at this stage) from around 05 February.
Chamonix
The Arlberg
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
ECM still on board for cold too.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
@BobinCH, thanks, clearly the mean would be even smoother if it went back even further as @altaski8, said. Smooth. But given the uptick appeared in the max the mystery of the Janvril remains!
Not following you? The mean is smooth as it’s an average of 28 years. The max is the highest measurement which one assumes was the biggest snow year (or 2 or 3 combined potentially). So whenever it snowed there would be a spike. April usually gets more sunny days but when it snows it can be epic hence the big upticks. Or not
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Yes early Feb is all very exciting in FI.
Current outlook below 2000 in NW is snow - rain - snow. Not good for the weekend, even above 2000 looks likely to be wet heavy snow, with warming temps out to mon 3rd and then falling (according to mean)
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@BobinCH, no or rather yes as I think we are agreeing, the mean will always be smooth it just blends all differences into the overall average. If every year it always snowed very heavily from 10-12 of April and on no other days either side. You would see something showing up in the mean. But it doesn’t and so over time even relatively regular April snow won’t appear on the mean. Regardless however there are clearly times (Janvril) or presumably certainly one time when it snowed very heavily over a few days in April (almost certainly on a pre existing high base) which lead to setting a new maximum snow depth for that date in April. It could be that that maximum actually represents a few clustered events around that date or it could be just one event.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
@BobinCH, no or rather yes as I think we are agreeing, the mean will always be smooth it just blends all differences into the overall average. If every year it always snowed very heavily from 10-12 of April and on no other days either side. You would see something showing up in the mean. But it doesn’t and so over time even relatively regular April snow won’t appear on the mean. Regardless however there are clearly times (Janvril) or presumably certainly one time when it snowed very heavily over a few days in April (almost certainly on a pre existing high base) which lead to setting a new maximum snow depth for that date in April. It could be that that maximum actually represents a few clustered events around that date or it could be just one event.
Well articulated! But weren't the "upticks" on the max depth plots in May and June and not April?
Not in the second one which is the one where all the Janvril talk started I think. Which is indeed a French term for April cold and snow (Janvier+Avril) look at #Janvril on Twitter. Or I think there was a thread on here.
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@nozawaonsen, worked overtime to finish a job today, heading up tomorrow for a week with de lads...I'm alright Jack
...just to make sure I had the right expression...Wiki says it's "a British expression used to describe those who act only in their own best interests even if assistance to others would necessitate minimal effort on their behalf."
Not entirely what I was expecting, nevermind, it's snowing already, right on cue
Last April btw saw a lot of trees fall down here....the combination of heavy blossom / growth and 20-30cm of wet snow caused 10+year old trees and branches to snap
@polo, sounds like a well deserved break! (your leave not the trees)
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@nozawaonsen, appreciate the good wishes and intent, but for the record, I am fundamentally lazy until I see snow falling
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen wrote:
Not in the second one which is the one where all the Janvril talk started I think. Which is indeed a French term for April cold and snow (Janvier+Avril) look at #Janvril on Twitter. Or I think there was a thread on here.
I still don't see it. I was confused what started it in the first place. I guess I'm an idiot. Not the first time.
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It’s not that big.
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I see about 10cm on the terrace at Reberty. Currently light snow although will get heavier at any moment by the looks of it. Can’t hear any blasting?!
FAQ
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