 Poster: A snowHead
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@buchanan101, don't they both use GFS as their source??
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
| Bergfex and Snow Forecast both showing significant snow next Tuesday for Ischgl. These are two different weather engines now agreeing. Fingers crossed! |
And now both have turned in to virtual non events....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @buchanan101, don't they both use GFS as their source?? |
They are often different... even as non events now they aren't the same. I thought they were different engines?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@kitenski, @buchanan101,
Snow forecast is gfs
Bergfex is Zamg
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Any update on the 2017 start to Winter?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I often see Europeans at US resorts and wonder why they would leave the alps to come ski what appears to be inferior terrain. Now I know: it snows here. Big disappointment for my first trip over there in late January. Looks like man made snow.
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@Ptspeak, You're more than a month out!!
January is still early season, December is pre-season. Dont write off your trip just yet!!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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This December has undoubtedly been exceptionally dry. Any suggestion that the current weather is normal or not unusual is hard to give much credence to.
ZAMG has just put out some figures for the year.
For December Austria was 80% drier than the long term average (though 40% sunnier so there has quite literally been a bright side). Temperature wise it was a little milder +0.7C (56th warmest on record).
The coldest temperature recorded in an inhabited area in Austria last year was -23.6C at Lech on 18 January.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Météo France changed already 
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
| buchanan101 wrote: |
| Bergfex and Snow Forecast both showing significant snow next Tuesday for Ischgl. These are two different weather engines now agreeing. Fingers crossed! |
And now both have turned in to virtual non events.... |
| Quote: |
Bergfex still has 50 cm snow falling on Parts of Switzerland Jan2/3 but I get the point. Another epic letdown looming. |
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You know it makes sense.
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I've been trying hard to remain positive for the past couple of weeks but it really is starting to look grim. Certainly into early/mid January, whilst maybe a bit cooler, the models look dry and as if all we can hope for is a dramatic and unforecast change.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Ptspeak, I realise it must be incredibly frustrating to plan a special trip and have rubbish conditions. The current conditions are really unusual though. It does snow over here usually, I promise  . Certainly, if things have not improved by late January, that would exceptional. Also, things are not that bad in Zermatt at least (where I see you are going).
It goes both ways - here is a report from a poster who was unlucky with a trip over to the US:
http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=116797#2672893
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Jelly: yes it does. I'm arriving Jan. 4!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Based on current GFS central Austria (near Salzburg eg Saalbach, Schladming) is looking the best bet for fresh snowfall.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Ptspeak, I feel your pain. I'm making the trip from Australia and to be honest, skiing on strips of machine made snow on green hills isn't what I've signed up for seeing as I've booked for late Jan early Feb. Then I start to get angry at myself and ask why I booked the trip at all but who can predict such things?
@nozawaonsen, I'm booked to go to Saalbach so everything crossed that snowfall comes off 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Raven, I chose Europe over Whistler, which is getting nuked this year, based largely on inconsistent PNW snow I dealt with the past two years. At least I have Jackson Hole in late February and Telluride a week later. Great resorts but not the quantity of terrain. I thought of switching dates to March but that runs in the thousand$$$.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Gämsbock, Yes it does. However i learned to ski at Tahoe and would not visit there as a destination resort. It's too warm and inconsistent. I wasn't expecting Utah powder, just looking forward to a different experience outside the US, and a chance to experience the terrain there. There is still time, but I'm guessing that will come in mid Feb. In the meantime I'll obsess over reports of snow a week out that then gets pulled away only to fall in eastern Bulgaria.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Raven, Keep calm - it's snowing! (And it's still only Christmas week).
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@ptspeak, my guess is that by late Jan things will have improved dramatically.
It would be exceptional to have a dry spell from November to February, while a slow start to the season is not that unusual.
Last season was also slow, then it tipped it down week 2 Jan.
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It will chuck it down on change,over day next week causing chaos. That's pretty much the norm these days
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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ECM 12h a big downgrade compared to the earlier forecast, I would say it is 50:50 that we get more than a dusting on the 2nd of January in the French alps, a few cm sadly isn't going to make much difference to the amount of runs open.
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@Ptspeak, late Jan is long way away. There's already good snow in the southern alps, and there's likely to be much in the north by then. After all, that's a month away. You could have a new president and nuclear war by then 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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GFS 18Z looks better
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Wouldn't despair about end Jan yet.
Anything before that definitely cause for concern
At this stage doesn't look like like anywhere will see more than a dusting Jan 2. Though that could still change. So we're going to be pinning hopes on Jan 9. If that doesn't materialise then things will start looking grim for January. This is already an unusual even exceptional prolonged spell of high pressure (without any real indication of it ending very soon to best of my limited understanding)
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I've become a last minute man in recent years, although I'm lucky enough to have a working life that facilitates that. Had too many poor snow trips and powder meant that much to me that I was tired of it. Its gotten to the point that even if I do go stateside it will be last minute (I am hoping there's some kind of we powder over there).
Having said that, there's no point in worrying about the end of january now and anyway what happens in the day or two prior to going and while you're there is key to that dragon chase. You need fresh snow, low temps and low winds. I've travelled for 30cm fresh only to find it warm and raining the next day. I've also travelled to a resort closed the day before due to too much snow and avalanche risk but found the place was completely scoured of the fresh by the wind by the time I got up. So I had to add new variables to my conditions for optimal travel learnt from experience.
If you're on here posting then you love skiing, if you love skiing then you'll enjoy it even in sub optimal conditions. There are plenty of people posting here from resorts still enjoying themselves. If people haven't booked hold off if they can, if people have booked and are travelling around the world consider changing their final destination closer to the time when they know where the best conditions are. And if you can't do either of the above you'll still enjoy yourself.
Please don't worry about late january its far too early for that.
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You know it makes sense.
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@snowheads68, Fingers crossed that map is right.
I have to make a decision on 5 January what I do in the second week of my trip. My options are whole week in Lech, whole week in Zermatt, half week in St Anton and half in Zermatt or go somewhere completely different (Monterosa and Sestriere are on my radar).
Forgot to say before that the Zermatt options can be cancelled quite close to the date so will definitely keep those.
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Wed 28-12-16 1:35; edited 1 time in total
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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First half of January will be windy.
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Poster: A snowHead
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I've been coming to the alps to ski for a while....the past 4 years have been so bad i just kind of gambled that this year would be different and im there for more than a month this year....I won't be doing that again. I'm afraid the economic impacts of there being no snow-sure resorts even in the high alpine are really going to start to accrue. I'll wait till conditions are good and head over to experience the best skiing the world has to offer but Christmas? January? That's gonna hurt for a few years good snow or no. Sad.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Raven, we all have tough choices to make from time to time, there must be some kind of hotline you can call.... 
18z GFS certainly brings more chances of cold and ppn from 2nd Jan all the way thru. Some very cold looking ensemble members.
@Brothergrimm I doubt it, lots of demand out there still. Been some amazing dumps the last 4 years, and this year could top them all. Let's wait until at least mid term before writing it off.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| One or two slightly wide of the mark comments at present. |
Ever the voice of reason!
People are starting to get worried. They'll grasp at the faintest GFS flutter. It's the same every year.
I have every faith that winter will arrive soon.
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| Raven wrote: |
I have to make a decision on 5 January what I do in the second week of my trip. My options are whole week in Lech, whole week in Zermatt, half week in St Anton and half in Zermatt or go somewhere completely different (Monterosa and Sestriere are on my radar).
Forgot to say before that the Zermatt options can be cancelled quite close to the date so will definitely keep those. |
You're skiing last week of Jan, first week of Feb, correct? Can I suggest that instead of 5th of Jan you make your decision towards the end of your first week skiing by coming on here and visiting sites like wepowder to see where best conditions are the next week.you'll be within a six hour drive of most resorts, maybe less, maybe a train journey or short flight. In the era of booking you will find accommodation wherever you want to go. Why would you make that decision on 5th january?
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| 8611 wrote: |
| Raven wrote: |
I have to make a decision on 5 January what I do in the second week of my trip. My options are whole week in Lech, whole week in Zermatt, half week in St Anton and half in Zermatt or go somewhere completely different (Monterosa and Sestriere are on my radar).
Forgot to say before that the Zermatt options can be cancelled quite close to the date so will definitely keep those. |
You're skiing last week of Jan, first week of Feb, correct? Can I suggest that instead of 5th of Jan you make your decision towards the end of your first week skiing by coming on here and visiting sites like wepowder to see where best conditions are the next week.you'll be within a six hour drive of most resorts, maybe less, maybe a train journey or short flight. In the era of booking you will find accommodation wherever you want to go. Why would you make that decision on 5th january? |
You're right of course. I had booked some very nice accommodation in StAnton that I can cancel without penalty but only until 5 Jan. I guess the snow and skiing is the most important thing so I'm leaning towards seeing what the conditions do and making a late call.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@nozawaonsen, A brief explanation of the ensembles would be appreciated by dim old pensioner who can still manage a few turns in the deeper stuff. What should one be looking for in them that indicates the possibility of snow? Many thanks.
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@peter w, very simple version. Top line refers to temperature. Bottom line precipitation.
The more activity on the bottom line the more unsettled the outlook is.
You can see the shift from 03 January when the temperature also falls. As low pressure pushes down from the north the chances of colder temperatures, snowfall and stronger winds increases (compared to the dry, sunny, calm weather that often accompanies high pressure).
That shift is still six to seven days out, but is starting to come into focus now. Snowfall amounts are hard to see at that range and are shifting around run to run (so be very careful of any figures cropping up on popular weather websites). At present it looks like it will favour the northern side of the Alps and the eastern end (so Austria, central parts of which are also seeing snow this morning), but this should become clearer over the next couple of days.
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