 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Darnit! The power of nozawaonsen:
This morning snowforecast had freezing level around 1600m right up to 9 days hence, with temperatures less than freezing.
Then Lord Nozawaonsen speaks the fateful words: "From midweek high pressure builds from the west bringing sunshine and warmer temperatures, which look like being quite mild by the weekend."
And - hey presto! - next weekend is above 3C and 3000m!
Could be great weather, but i'm not going out until the following weekend 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Anyone on the ground in St Anton or Ischgl? I was planning to head over there tomorrow as in theory they should be getting more snow in the West, but judging by webcams it doesn't look like anything much is going to fall...
Cheers.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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kitenski, looks like little more than frost on those cars to me
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Looks more like light snow to me. Not sure I'd be expecting more than 5-10cm at altitude in the Arlberg overnight. Monday into Tuesday looks a lot better. In fact were I clarky999 I'd start cultivating a suspicious cough and cold routine over the next couple of days and letting everyone know, to lay the groundwork to justify the inevitable "sick days" which will be required later this week...
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nozawaonsen, already have Monday and Tuesday off, and only working from 2pm Wed and Thurs 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Jonpim, they are indeed one and the same person.
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Jonpim, it's a Meteogram. It's showing the GFS output in a different format.
It shows cloud clearing from 06 March as high pressure builds. Some snow on 03 March during the day. Light snow showers on 04, light snow later on 05. Pretty chilly over night on 04 March, warming up after that, though generally not as much as some of the more outlandish suggestions from a few days ago.
So in summary fairly sunny today, cloud and some snow early in the week, growing milder, more settled and sunnier from midweek as high pressure pushes across.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Quote: |
Sine snow on 03 March
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that's the sort that comes and goes in regular waves.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Ah! Thank you rob@rar - would have been obvious if i'd noticed link in signature.
And nozawaonsen, your explanation is model example of explaining complicated stuff to the ignorant (me) - I'll get the hang of this weather stuff eventually 
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Jonpim, I am indeed on here, the reason there are only a few sites on there is that I just did it for myself to have forecasts and cams on the one page and thus I have the resorts I've been to/am going to since I started it a few years back..
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You know it makes sense.
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06z GFS suggests high pressure over the Alps later in the week could be less influential than high pressure developing over Scandinavia and Russia.
If that did play out any milder weather would be short lived and replaced by colder weather from the east. Still too far off in FI to have a sense of much beyond next weekend at this stage.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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And so begins the checking of the forecast every few hours until we head off to tignes on 15th
Will the high pressure take hold? Will it get colder? Will there be some fresh (please, please!!!)?? I really have no idea why I put myself through this! 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Woke up this morning having somehow pulled something in my back whilst sleeping, so no skiing for me today 
Looks like Obergurgl scored quite a bit of snow overnight though.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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So out on 15th too and trying to wish for the HP dominance to end in time for the week. We all like a bit of fresh snow when we are there.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030212/gfs-0-336.png?12
Could go either way from that, pressure could sink and some systems could find their way in.
Or could have HP dominance!
Still 2 weeks away (I am off to 3val) we all know the frigility of the GFS and the next best charts only go out to 240 or so hours.
Nervous week and a few days waiting!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Sorry about your back clarky999 - hope it gets better quickly.
Seems March 14/15 is a popular time to go (La Plagne for me).
And i will be with SkiG and JW_UK (and others) scanning this thread and all the weather sites many times a day until then.
kitenski, your site is brilliant - but would be even better if you added La Plagne. 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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kitenskis site shows the GFS shifting in the right direction at least!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| SkiG wrote: |
| kitenskis site shows the GFS shifting in the right direction at least! |
12z GFS shows it warming up in FI?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Jonpim, try netweather.
Trouble is with the GFS it has a much stronger high than the ECM and GEM promote - so will see how it ends up. Trouble is until it is 240hours (or 10 days) away, no other model gets close, so the only other thing you can rely on is the GFS ensembles:
Going on that chart, its well on the upper end of the spectrum, so pressure likely to be lower (and eventual outcome cooler/wetter) over the forecast period up to the end of the model run. Ill post more in the next few days, forgot about this forum!
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| JW_UK wrote: |
| the next best charts only go out to 240 or so hours. |
I probably say that ECM is a slightly stronger model than GFS.
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nozawaonsen, I agree,
What I meant was...the bext timestamp where good models come out is at 240 hours. Sorry, my slang English getting the better of me!
You agree regarding the above ensembles...GFS definitely over-cooking the high>?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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JW_UK, the 06z GFS op run had high pressure developing over Scandinavia leading to colder temperatures. The 12z GFS op anchors high pressure over the UK and is milder, it has some support from the control run. So for now the issue seems to be where the high pressure builds.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| SkiG wrote: |
| kitenskis site shows the GFS shifting in the right direction at least! |
12z GFS shows it warming up in FI? |
Ah yes, I hadn't refreshed the screen 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And the 18z goes for the more easterly option and no real long term deep sustained high. I cant wait up any longer for the latter ensembles. But given support of 18 out to 10th March I actually quite like its evolution.
I was reading on another thread the GEM model has verified extremely well as of late - surprisingly that one limiting (at least in the uk) the extent of any High pressure.
I would never normally try to guess weather 2 weeks away, why I am I doing it now...madness,
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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not sure I like the look of that big red cloud hovering over Ukraine
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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adam.b, fascinating; have sent the details to my son, who lives in Genova. Any photos? (maybe on another thread so as not to derail this one).
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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that is surprising weathercam, vars had about 30cm i'd say, but it seems to be a recurring pattern this season that precipitation heads from the south and areas like the chamsaur get a lot of snow and the ecrins massif acts as a bit of a weather barrier so serre chevalier etc gets less. don't know if that rings true for you.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Had lots of snow in La Plagne over the last few days.
But from Friday, snowforecast now predicting warm and sunny for the following 5 days: freezing level 2350m
Time to dig out the Factor 50.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Yes lots of mm odels now set oh settled conditions for the future in the alps. Exact positions still being played with. So that will in broad terms determine temperature.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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High pressure looks increasingly dominant from the end of the week and likely to continue through to mid month at least.
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Weathercam, I notice you've posted almost exactly the same comment on the Serre Chevalier thread. But for some reason you prefer to throw around the word "bollox" on this thread?
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nozawaonsen, ngghhh. Quite a large number of snowHeads needs some snow in the Ski Amade from mid-month!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Grrrrrrr!!! Come on low pressure, get yourself to the alps!!
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Pedantica, The piste around ski amade are just fine, though more snow always welcomed, however you may want to pay a little extra (€13 pw) and get a salzburg superpass so you can pop down to Lungau where they have benefited from all the southerly weather this season. http://www.bergfex.at/grosseck-speiereck/webcams/c1061/
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