 Poster: A snowHead
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@Snow&skifan, not been that mild all the time!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I assume there is aggregated data that tracks this. I'm just going on my experience of skiing great conditions early Jan but then poor spring conditions early Feb, there only being one proper snowfall since early Jan (in the last few days), which actually had quite a high freezing line and high temps again now.
Plus pre Christmas as I recall involved quite heavy snow up high but rain to 2000m and above.
Just seems a long time with aggregate temps quite high, and this is before the warmer months
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @Snow&skifan, not been that mild all the time! |
Other than the one cold spell which I mentioned, many resorts have had daily maxima well above zero often double digits and nights where it just about froze or was above zero. Other than 2022/23, I can’t remember a January like that.
Whilst Val Thorens and the other high altitude resorts were good. Snowheads reported packed pistes with day car parks rammed, as lower/mid resorts were swerved.
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@Snow&skifan, not according to my sensors. (I’m in Chamonix, cant talk about anywhere else). Yeah it’s been mild but our overnights have mostly been a good few degrees -0 and a week or so of -6 or -7 mornings .
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| 8611 wrote: |
I assume there is aggregated data that tracks this. I'm just going on my experience of skiing great conditions early Jan but then poor spring conditions early Feb, there only being one proper snowfall since early Jan (in the last few days), which actually had quite a high freezing line and high temps again now.
Plus pre Christmas as I recall involved quite heavy snow up high but rain to 2000m and above.
Just seems a long time with aggregate temps quite high, and this is before the warmer months |
Somewhere on Snowheads the other day, someone posted a resort specific graphic of daily temperatures this winter versus the widely used 1971 to 2000 mean averages.
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @Snow&skifan, not according to my sensors. (I’m in Chamonix, cant talk about anywhere else). Yeah it’s been mild but our overnights have mostly been a good few degrees -0 and a week or so of -6 or -7 mornings . |
If you’re being Chamonix specific, would the valley experience temperature inversions on non-precipitous nights, cold flowing from the vast peaks?
What daily maxima did you record Jan 24 to Feb 10. The folk who record on Wunderground and NetWeather noted temperatures up to 16.7c for example for Chamonix. At the coldest time of the year, was that a record?
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@Snow&skifan, it has certainly been an exceptionally mild winter in Morzine. I have rarely had to defrost my car in the mornings.
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My entirely unscientific metric of the mildness of this winter compared to last is that we've burned more firewood than last winter, but still not very much at all.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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A little way off but after this week's heatwave, GFS is starting to get excited about a return to winter toward the end of next week...
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| michebiche wrote: |
A little way off but after this week's heatwave, GFS is starting to get excited about a return to winter toward the end of next week...
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That would be very welcome BUT GFS was also getting excited about a return to winter this coming weekend a few days ago ... of course, this stubborn patter will break down at some point but the ground is now beginning to gradually warm up. Spring is not far away.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@michebiche, Been a constant theme with GFS promise that fails to deliver. So to look on the bright side starts to look interesting from middle of next week with many looking towards cold end of Feb and start of March . But as another observer says if you stop cherry picking runs nothing really changes in the mid term still mild . I in my head I’m going positive towards the change but I always do . Of course it will only turn when all have lost hope !
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@michebiche - that development would be very welcome , we are heading to Saalbach on the 2nd of March for only 4 days so keeping fingers crossed snow conditions will be OK and watching this thread very closely for glimmers of hope!
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So all shaping up nicely for Mayrhofen on March 9, then!
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You know it makes sense.
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| J2R wrote: |
| So all shaping up nicely for Mayrhofen on March 9, then! |
Don't bet on it. As others have said, the models have repeatedly done this over the last 3-4 weeks. Promised a return to winter that hasn't materialised. Once it's in the <5 day range then I'd get interested.... Although they've got to get it right at some point 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Starting at the top, 10hpa, the strat warming 19/20th is over Siberia, with the cold over europe. Next chart is 27th, showing displaced vortex (pressure) still in place, and finally a time series of the vertical atmospheric anomalies from the top of the strat (1hpa) down to the surface (1000hpa) out to the end of Feb.
  
So not only do we have rare back-to-back SSWs, (jan and feb), the second one is looking like a double dip, with winds reversing on 19th, recovering slightly and dropping again on the 27th. This last chart also shows the blue anomalies all the way down through the layers at times, as there isn't much westerly momemtum (pink shading) above us following the flush out last month, so makes downwelling path easier and likely quicker.
Blah blah blah.....I realise this is OTT for here, so just a one off for the few that might be interested. Takeaway is the atmospheric set up above us is loaded with potential for the next several weeks / into early March. As usual it's down to the trop (500hpa) patterns now to see if they can mess this up / or just not be impacted from above.
EC46 for 19-26th has backed off from the euro low anomaly we saw yesterday, high pressure to the west is very close to France, so will probably favour eastern end. But the following week (26th-4th) is good. So that's another pushback from that model....but it will change again, and they are weekly anomalies....usual caveats.
 
Looking at the 3 means for 22nd (as a comparison to yesterday)
  
All 3 have moved quite a bit, esp ECM, starting to form a little consensus now on a big atlantic low trying to flatten the euro heights. GFS (middle) is showing it's true colours by being more progressive than the others....ie it's a lot further E/SE with the low. The other 2 are sensing those euro heights will take a little longer to shift.
It's a familiar theme....models, esp GFS, underestimate the strength of in situ high pressure, which recently has led to the low being deflected NE towards Scandi instead of SE towards Greece. We'll soon see if this time is any different. The 25th looks great on GFS, but I don't have any faith in it until we get closer and all 3 are better aligned.
Just for fun as they say....here are some of the latest Op runs from FI.....ECM is struggling to get over the hill by 23rd, GEM isn't pretty - more topical SW rain to start with, then GFS (22nd) and JMA (24th) are what's known in the trade as stonkers.
   
So a mixed update, which is not unexpected at this range....in general the models are going colder quicker....19/20th could see the first drop below 0 at 850, especially eastern end....but the main focus is going to be how far SE the atlantic low can reach around 22-25th.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Dashed, I know, I always get delusional at this point in advance of a ski trip. 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@polo, thanks! I know we've been disappointed before, but I'd rather the models were saying this than giving no hope.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Thanks @polo, great to learn so much from you regarding all of this. Far more interested in this then I thought I would be.
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GFS going off on one again cold and snowy from 22nd Feb , presumably none of the other models are following ?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You should check out snow-forecast, having a field day lol
This is for Soldeu, Andorra. Looks like more snow in those few days then the entire season so far
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Tue 13-02-24 19:13; edited 1 time in total
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Misread that as Solden and started to get excited. 
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| J2R wrote: |
| Misread that as Solden and started to get excited. |
Sorry! Should be the country on the end of that lol
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@Theobane, typical advanced forecast from the apps based on one outlier!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @Theobane, typical advanced forecast from the apps based on one outlier! |
Oh I know to take a huge bucket of salt when it comes to any forecast pass 3 days lol, especially for Snow-Forecast which happens to never be accurate unless it's the next four days.
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Winter is coming…
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@BobinCH, sure looks like it - I’m out 23-26 and it looks good so far!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@BobinCH, let’s hope it’s right this time , are the other models coming inline yet ?
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@BobinCH, let’s hope it’s right this time , are the other models coming inline yet ?
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You know it makes sense.
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@andy from embsay, there's quite good agreement across the models for colder weather (i.e. seasonal temperatures or below) across the Alps for the last week of February. And snowy in the NW Alps in particular.
It's still not yet in the reliable timeframe, but it's getting closer...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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How does that look for Selva/Sella Ronda?
Less snow than elsewhere I bet, though it seems to have had a decent season so far
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Poster: A snowHead
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All ticking along nicely.....EC46 better NW flow 19-26th, albeit the high to the west is still very close to france, and week 26-4th still v.good. In fact the entire 6 week run is showing greenland block / euro trough. Of course anything beyond 10-14 days is complete fantasy, but nice to see a lengthy euro trough as a possibility.
Consensus forming quickly now on the 3 means for same timestamp, 1am 22nd. Always useful to compare exact time slot and matching runs, eg compare yesterdays 0z with today's 0z, or 12z v 12z etc.
  
Another shift by ECM towards GFS, while GFS has backed off a little (less progressive). GEM and GFS look almost identical now, had to double check I hadn't copied the same chart twice. ECM is the best model though, so ideally it keeps digging SE like the others, or we could end up with a shallow/weak trough. Again the real focus is after this....23-25th, but am sticking with 22nd for illustration.
It's all about jet alignment. We are on a very strong SW-NE axis now, so it's always a struggle to flip that 180 degrees to NW-SE over a short period. Most of the time the jet will flatten, or take longer than models expect to tilt, with the probability the core low ends up too far NE. However, this set up seems to have extra forcing from the NW, and as GFS has consistently shown, there are times where we can get a relatively smooth rotation.
GFS 06z here showing the expected change in jet stream over the next 10 days, from SW to W to NW
  
ECM ensembles looking good for haute savoie here....a few flakes on Sat across the north, another colder chance on Mon, ahead of the expected more prolonged cold spell from 22nd onwards.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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With the snow comes the wind...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@polo
@onelasttime1!
A question for your collective meterological expertise  , is https://www.snow-forecast.com/ a reliable interpretation of models?
I really, really liked it for possibly 15 years or more, probably because it seems to forever forecast just around the corner incredibly cold weather and huge snow dumps for ski resorts.
Or did I fall hook, line and sinker for clickbait?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
@polo
@onelasttime1!
A question for your collective meterological expertise , is https://www.snow-forecast.com/ a reliable interpretation of models?
I really, really liked it for possibly 15 years or more, probably because it seems to forever forecast just around the corner incredibly cold weather and huge snow dumps for ski resorts.
Or did I fall hook, line and sinker for clickbait? |
I’ve often thought the same. Are there any ‘general’ forecasting websites that have merit?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
We are on a very strong SW-NE axis now, so it's always a struggle to flip that 180 degrees to NW-SE over a short period.
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Isn't that 90 degrees?
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For gods sake Whitegold, give it a rest! 
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| With the snow comes the wind... |
....& here he goes again 
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
@polo
@onelasttime1!
A question for your collective meterological expertise , is https://www.snow-forecast.com/ a reliable interpretation of models?
I really, really liked it for possibly 15 years or more, probably because it seems to forever forecast just around the corner incredibly cold weather and huge snow dumps for ski resorts.
Or did I fall hook, line and sinker for clickbait? |
I've not looked at the site in detail, but I suspect it just shows what is available on other sites such as Wetterzentrale which has a range of models, albeit with some graphical presentation of the model output. The graphics look OK, and if this helps you see what the models are saying then that's fine. Being a retired meteorologist, I would not pay extra to access longer range forecasts. GFS does has a tendency, in my view, to over-forecast the amount of precipitation in the Alps, and perhaps elsewhere, so you have to consider this when interpreting the graphics.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Onelasttime1!, I think Snowforecast uses the op run of one model (I think GFS) and is an automated feed - so tends to be very volatile for anything over 4/5 days or so. It seems very popular and tends to elicit equally volatile mood swings in its adherents!
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| Reezo wrote: |
| Snow&skifan wrote: |
@polo
@onelasttime1!
A question for your collective meterological expertise , is https://www.snow-forecast.com/ a reliable interpretation of models?
I really, really liked it for possibly 15 years or more, probably because it seems to forever forecast just around the corner incredibly cold weather and huge snow dumps for ski resorts.
Or did I fall hook, line and sinker for clickbait? |
I’ve often thought the same. Are there any ‘general’ forecasting websites that have merit? |
Meteoblue seems to use a multi-model approach and has extremely cool weather maps with wind animations !
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